Extended Primary Season Could Be A Boon To the Democrats

Many Democratic party loyalists fret that an ongoing battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will tear party unity and delay vital fundraising. But Republicans shouldn't start cheering yet. Below are three hidden benefits of an extended intramural fight for Democratic Party at the national and at the local levels in 2008 and beyond.

1. BUILDING THE BASE

So far 2008 has seen unprecedented voter turnout for Democratic party primaries and caucuses. Not only has voter turnout for the Democratic contest often swamped Republican turnout, but the Democratic:Republican turnout ratio has consistently exceeded the 2004 Kerry:Bush vote ratio in every state (with the glaring exceptions of Florida and Michigan). The likelihood that voter turnout will remain high while the Democratic contest remains contested has certain benefits for Democrats on the local and national levels. First, more voters will end up in the campaigns', and often the Party's, databases, either from outreach efforts or the state's Board of Elections. In several states, such as Pennsylvania, participation in the primaries or caucuses requires actual registration in the Party, so both campaigns are busy re-registering voters as Democrats -- a registration that just might stick

Second, Democrats will continue to get massive, free media attention that normalizes their general platform. The continuing coverage of the differences between the Obama and Clinton health care plans sets universal health care as a goal while relatively little is being broadcast against that goal. (In negotiations, injecting a position early into the process is called "anchoring," and evidence suggests that it works). And record-breaking turnout so far suggests that "voter fatigue" is a figment of bored pundits' imagination.

Third, independent or Republican voters who cast their ballots for a Democrat may engage in post-decision rationalization that leads them to confirm their decision as a good one, even if they might otherwise have been on the fence or GOP-leaning. (Salesmen exploit this psychological bias to resolve cognitive dissonance by getting potential customers to make small purchases that pave the way to bigger ones later.) Admittedly, while this effect has been demonstrated for specific candidates, it's questionable whether it might also apply to the entire party.

2. BUILDING THE ORGANIZATION

Vernelle Graham, whom I described in my earlier coverage of the South Carolina primaries, is another reason why continuing the contest may benefit the Democratic Party in November and beyond. Ms. Graham had never before run an electoral operation, but for the week leading up to primary day, she pulled together a team and had a direct hand in organizing a winning GOTV effort. With that experience now on her resume, Ms. Graham will be that much more valuable to the November general election field operation to turn that red state blue, or at least purple. Perhaps more importantly for the long-term health of the Democratic Party, she has also picked up valuable skills that she'll be able to use to help elect local leaders, the lifeblood of the party. It's even conceivable that she and others like her might run for office themselves.

Every time a campaign rolls into a contested state and uses old-fashioned, grassroots strategies, more individuals like Vernelle Graham become involved, learn new skills, and expand local grassroots potential.

What's true at the grassroots is also true inside each of the campaigns, which function as "incubators" of skilled organizers. Continuing the contest through more states will give staff organizers the chance to continue to rack up real field experience and iron out operational kinks. And while the top ranks of either campaign will likely not join the other's, many at the lower and middle levels will, bringing with them a wealth of electoral experience. Several Obama campaign staffers I spoke with in South Carolina underlined their commitment to the party, not just the candidate; it will be up to the eventual nominee to recruit and make best use of the other team's human resources.

3. BUILDING LEGITIMACY

Finally, letting the contest continue can deepen both parties' legitimacy and accountability to regular voters. Years ago I conducted research on the politics of Boston's Chinatown, at the time a rather small urban community where two factions -- traditional business organizations and progressive social service organizations -- were claiming to stand for the community's interests. I found that when these organizations were in conflict, they were forced to prove their legitimacy by actually consulting the grassroots; when they were in harmony, the community was at risk of being cut out of the process.

Thus, the Republican party's preference for a coup d'etat may yet come back to haunt them. Huckabee's lingering strength in the polls, despite McCain's inevitability, indicate that the Arizona senator has yet to win over a substantial plurality of the party's base. A longer electoral process resulting from would have given McCain more time to refine his outreach and message to secure the religious flank.

Meanwhile, in my own phonebanking to Vermont in advance of the March 4 primary, I'm still surprised that there are still voters who are only just now paying attention to the election. And those who have been following the campaign avidly are delighted to have their voices heard.

CONCLUSION

Democratic activists have good reason to worry as the nomination drags on. Each of the above benefits also has a negative side. If either campaign goes very negative, all of the free media attention will start hurting November prospects. Let the campaign staff and organizers incubate for too long, and they risk burning out. Resort to superdelegate shenanigans, and the party will lose precious legitimacy for years. There's a point of diminishing returns to an extended nomination process. But I'm not convinced that we've hit the point of negative returns -- yet.

Comments

[fun2bfree]

The notion of a media bias against Hillary is absurd. She is coddled, propped up and supported by a media that wants this race to continue -since it gets better ratings the more the suspense is drawn out.
The media have done nothing to challenge her on her absolute lie that she would relese her tax returns as soon as possible Tuesday night- only to say now that she won't release them until after she has the nomination. WHY? If people can know them after, why not before? And who is to say she isn't lying about releasing them after the nomination....Once she gets a nomination she can just turn around and say, no, I have decided not to release them....She gets away with this without a single story about her total flipflop in the Mainstream media.

Equally unchallenged go her claims to a "record" of achievement....not one bill with her name on it...Not one piece of major legislation as compared to Obama's multiple accomplishments of bipartisan legislation on nuclear proliferation, government transparency and ethics reform. She has gotten not just a pass--but the media repeat over and over that she is the one with experience as if it were true (which it is not.)

Media is biased--not in favor of one candidate or the other--they helped propel Obama to the forefront--but now are fighting to help her back up to keep the whole circus going--truth be damned....

[MAGLATINA]

THE IRAQ WAR IN FIRST PLACE WAS WRONG, BASED ON LIES. THERE IS NO POINT IN CONTINUING THE LOSS OF OUR TROOPS IN A WAR THAT HAS NO LOGICAL REASON TO BE. IT IS MORE COURAGEOUS AND HONORAABLE TO SAY, WE WERE WRONG AND GET OUT OF IRAQ. THE CIVIL WAR THERE IS CENTURIES LONG. ANYONE THINK THAT WE CAN SOLVE SUCH ETHNIC ELEMENTS? I DOUBT IT. HOWEVER THE REAL JUSTIFIED WAR IN AFGHANISTA WAS LEFT BY THE WAYSIDE CAUSING GREAT SACRIFICES TO OUR TROOPS AND PEOPLE. AND... THERE GOES OSAMA BIN LADEN WHOSE FAMILY ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH THE BUSHIES...AND... OBAMA WHO IS THE CHAIR OF THE SENATE AFGHANISTAN COMMITEE HAS NOT EVEN CITED A MEETING... WHAT KIND OF LEADER IS THIS??? THE OBFUSCATION WITH OBAMA IS GOING TO COST US DEARLY, IF NOT TRAGICALLY.

[wangmo]

Hillary Clinton is not running a negative campaign, she is simply returning fire when her record or policies are mis-repped by Barack's campaign, or the ridiculous­ly-prejudi­ced-agains­t-her MSM twists her image into a vile distortion every time they open their mouths about her.. I can't even watch beloved Keith O anymore. The sexism and attacks against Hillary and the cheerleading for Barack are just too disgustingly obvious that we've sadly got a society of misogynists that need to grow some Soul that reveres and respects the dedicated, powerful, knowledgeable women of our culture rather than jumping on the arrested-i­n-adolesce­nce bandwagon that yanks the pony tails, trips, throws things at the girls. It's been truly repulsive to realize what a woman-hating society America proves itself to be. Grow up America.

I for one hope Hillary continues to quickly respond to the negative campaigns against her, waged all around 24/7 by the media, and by Barack’s crew since he began running. It’s been fascinating watching when the debates began a year ago, how Hillary was called “presidential” and as Barack has been on the road with the truly Presidential Personage of Hillary Clinton, he has copied and parroted many of here own words and refined his policy. The reason she complained about always getting tossed the question first, which the asshole pundits scratch their heads wondering why she’d complain about that, all know very well, as does anyone who watched the debates, that after she gave a brilliant, detailed, thorough answer to the questions, Barack would “uh, yeah, what Hillary said,” and then he memorized the better bits and uses them now as if they all originated with him. . I always snigger when he says “That’s a debate I welcome!” She was the first to say that, Barack realized it sounded cool, and copies that all the time, among the many other bits he mimics for their sheer gravitas that Hillary Clinton owns because she earned it.

Anytime the pundits and candidates openly slander Hillary or lie about her actual stand on policy in an effort to undermine, level, brainwash the public against her, and disrespect her with their hateful lying lips she must swiftly respond with vigorous demand for truth. THAT'S NOT NEGATIVE, IT'S JUSTICE AND RESPECT FOR TRUTH..

GO HILLARY!!!! We NEED a woman President!!! The testosterone aggression has reached toxic levels of imbalance and madness. The Feminine Power of America needs to come in and rebalance the rotten Feng Shui BushCo has inflicted on our Home with Yang imbalance that has violently destroyed the America we have all loved, the America that is no longer even recognized by the rest of the world. Hillary can rejuvenate all of that and more.

[MAGLATINA]

I AGREE! GO HILLARY, GO!

[splashy]

Very well said!
You speak the truth!

[PauCK]

I also prefer Hillary...but framed in the BIG PICTURE either will serve well as opposed to John McCain, the new "Bush-a-Like" in the other camp.

I just don't like seeing either of them abuse each other because they both have good and similar ideas. Bottom line it will still be up to Congress to write and pass legislation to enact either of their programs into law.

The devil is always in the details. First we need one of the in the Oval Office, unraveling the deceit left behind by Bush and his henchmen.

[pgate127]

Right on!! Well said. I say, stay in it, Hillary, all the way!

Hmmm. That reminds me. I need to contribute to her campaign, again.

[wangmo]

As NatteringNabobs in the USMC said, we already defeated and hanged the leader, so we've already won the war. It's time to let our Commander and Chief Hillary Clinton do what she promises and begin bringing our Troops home in 60 days after Madame President takes office.

The ONLY reason we're still there is found here on Bartcop, http://www.bartcop.com/ where the facts are simply greed:

We now have 3,972 dead soldiers. We'd like to bring the soldiers home, but Bush's oil is not yet completely stolen...

Remember...
Exxon makes $108M - $128M every day

That's why Bush raped Iraq and killed Saddam

How do we know for sure?
Iraq's oil wells have NO METERS!

$200M-400M A DAY IS MISSING!!!

Where's that money going?
To the Bush Family Evil Empire!

Bush has killed more Americans than Osama.

http://icasualties.org/oif/

[bookerone]

The only ones who want to get the primary over with are the talking heads who are now bored with bashing Clinton. They are so ready to start on Obama. It will split the party if it dosen't go to convention.

[HumeSkeptic]

I think this is all spin.

[PaulLoeb]

Good points, and all with some validity, but to me it really does hinge on how negative the campaign is. If it's a debate over whose health plan or global warming plan is better, then the strenghts of people getting engaged outweigh the liabilities.

And yes, Obama does get more and more used to dealing with negative attacks, which is essentia.

But when Clinton is running an overwhelmingly negative campaign that gives credibility to Republican talking points, I think that if it goes on much longer it ends up hurting the Democrats.


See my article: How Much Damage Will Clinton Do Until She Folds?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-loeb/how-much-damage-will-clin_b_87884.html

[Dansden]

How much damage Clinton does till she folds...?
Mr. Loeb, your first response, 'Good points', was sufficient- your innuendos and implications about damage from Clinton does not even hint to the POSITIVE $$finance and emotion that 10s of millions of women are investing into her experience, platforms and parity issues. If you short-circuit that NOW without resolving these serious and transformative issues the Democratic Party could easily LOSE in November....and you, as a seasoned veteran, should know that and affirm that.....

[wangmo]

PaulLoeb, I find it quite odd, unfair, and yes, sexist, to single out Hillary as the bad guy who hurts the Democrats by "running an overwhelmingly negative campaign." That's a popular little meme that conveniently totally ignores the unrelenting attacks she got on stage when the full spectrum of Democrat candidates targeted her with constant barrage of negativity, including Saint Barack. No one stood up for her or screamed about what "overwhelmingly negative campaigns" the male candidates were running as they attacked Hillary at every opportunity, often ganging up on her. No media gripes about that hideous display, other than a few pundits suggesting she needs to "fight back."

Now that she is speaking up when flyers with lies about her policies are handed out to the public by Barack's people, and she acknowledges what SNL makes jokes about (because it's so OBVIOUS to everyone) the media treating Barack as some heavenly being that does no wrong and treats her very poorly—which is proof that she has integrity and demands truth instead of letting backstabbing propaganda fly without questioning and rebuttal. That’s hardly running a “negative campaign,” it’s running a “truth” campaign. Anybody been paying attention to the 15 years of LIES churned out daily to slander her character. Where are the citizens with integrity who find that fact proof of the monstrous sexist psychosis in American society that needs to be HEALED.

The fact that she stands up for herself when lies are spun about her or her policies and wishes to set the record straight is something to commend her for. Kerry’s swiftboating went unchallenged and we all consider the war hero a total wimp for doing so. Hillary on the other hand, clangs her brass ones and demands truth, and tells the liars to back off. YAY, HILLARY!

[MAGLATINA]

AGREE. KUDOS TO HILLARY. IT IS THE FREE PASS TO OBAMA BY THE MEDIA THAT IS TRYING OUR SYSTEM TO EXHAUSTION. THE FORTH POWER IS BECOMING THE FIFTH COLUMN.

[splashy]

Absolutely! This has gone on for a long time. Remember how many times she has told the truth? No one seems to remmber that!

[DarenTx]

I agree. I think the long primary season helps the democrats.

I think you can draw an analogy with Guiliani's failed campaign strategy. He didn't play in the early states and by the time Florida rolled around he had been left out of the conversation for so long he no longer mattered.

Right now the all the news and all the press is on the Democrats. That can't be good for McCain. He can try to be relevant and get his foot in the door but it will be difficult.

McCain will need to spend time and resources preparing for battle against 2 possible democratic candidates. However, both Clinton and Obama already know who they will be facing on the GOP side.

If the decision isn't made until the Democratic Convention then the Convention will probably be the most watched TV event in decades. Again, good for the Democrats.

But it could turn. Like the blogger stated, if the Super Delegates go against the will of the people the party will be hurt for a long time.

[RodgerLodger]

Maybe I missed it, in which case I apologize in advance, but I didn't see one precedent for this argument. If you can't show history on this, it's just graduate school b.s.

[iPolitics]

It certainly has been good for Obama. Nice practice for the general. A few issues got out there that I'm sure his team is planning a defense for.

[naschkatze]

Well look at last night. Russert and Williams threw both candidates curve balls which the Republicans can and will use against either Clinton or Obama, but McCain is getting a free ride. He is no longer involved in debates, cannibalistic or otherwise.

[naschkatze]

This slug fest is not doing the Democratic Party any good.

[ADVOCATE4ZPG]

The alternative commences in less than ten days. If--as it seems likely--the godhead Obama is elevated to nominee, he will face another FIVE months with only McPane as de facto adversary. Now there's a chance for a SAG in both momentum and enthusiasm.

Bush continues to BRIBE the "right" Iraqis NOT to FIGHT; Iraq remains rel. quiescent. The U.S. econ. tanks further; joblessness rises--along with prices. The job competition from AMNESTIED ILLEGAL ALIENS looms. The candidate which first bolts for ENFORCEMENT of EXTANT law first rallies non-Hispanics to his banner....

[Boadicea]

Regarding dragging this thing out, I think the cons outweigh the pros for Democrats.

First, Hillary already has been very negative. Today she's got articulate, prepared people calling progressive radio hammering home Obama's "Farrahkan connection." Concern trolls, we call them. Disgusting.

Second, people are TIRED of the infighting. We're just plain tired of it. We want to take on the neocons who want to stay in Iraq for a hundred years, not other Dem candidates who have virtually the same platform. Congress makes most policy decisions in this country, not the president. He can veto, and he can voice his opinion. We need a strong congressional and senatorial win in November.

Third, I and many people I know are losing our confidence in the Democratic Party's ability to win in November, watching this slandering of the frontrunner continue from within the party. The kinds of false attacks on character that HIllary is free to lob at Obama should be unacceptable between Democrats. If anyone should be ashamed, it's the Democratic Party.

[clbrune]

The major con in my mind is a divisive primary that leaves half of Democrats upset and unmotivated right before a general election.

I will point out, though, that this general is practically a lovefest, and to those Obama supporters who think Clinton has been "very negative" are in for a shock once the general election starts.

If Obama gets the nomination (seems pretty likely), the election will probably hinge on how well he and his supporters deal with real attacks. Unfortunately, that response has been almost hysterical to date (really, folks need to toughen up a bit).

[MAGLATINA]

AS SOME REPUBS HAVE ALREADY SAID IN BLOGS THAT THEY VOTED FOR OB BUT WILL NOT IN THE NOV ELECTION; IT IS EASY TO ASSUME THAT THE NOV ELECTIONS WILL GO TO THE REPUBS IF OB IS THE NOMINEE. IT IS REALLY A VERY SAD, ALTHOUGH HISTORICALLY IMPORTANT; THAT THE FIRST COMPETITION BETWEEN A WOMAN AND A MAN IS TAINTED WITH THE RACIST ELEMENT. REPUBS VOTE FOR OB NOW, BUT NOT AT THE NOV ELECTIONS. IT IS ALL A PLOY TO WEAKEN HILLARY WHO IS REALLY THE CANDIDATE REPUBS FEAR AND WHO CAN WINN IN NOVEMBER.

[BPCentrisAmerican]

Sorry, but racing to be first to wave the white flag is not a winning

By ctbutte

Cthutte, answer this, are you willing to join the military, willing to support a draft, or pay a huge take increase to keep 20 brigades in Iraq another 10 to a 100 years to obtain some kind of compromise in someone else’s civil war. Our involvement in Vietnam started in 52 and ended in 75. Killed 58,000 Americans, wounded and ruin the lives of hundreds of thousands more. Not to mention killing more than 3.8 million Vietnamese yet the result of the Vietnam War was never in question. LBJ privately admitted as much in 1964. So Cthutte enlighten all us as what victory in Iraq will look like, because if John McCain can’t convince 70% of the American people why we should continue in Iraq, while our economy goes down the tubes, than the invasion was based on a false argument in the first place. Modern US military doctrine was created to avoid extended conflicts like Korea, Vietnam and now Iraq, because the conclusions of conflicts like Iraq have been proven in history to end in compromise never victory.

So Cthutte when you though out a stupid GOP talking point like that, as least make a case for it, because you sound like a guy who watched to many bad Chuck Norris movies.

[BushBites]

What about its effects on Republican "voter caging" and other voter suppression efforts?

I would think that it would make it more difficult for the Republicans, given that it updates primary voters' status for the general.

Remember, the Republicans can only win when they keep people from voting.

[ctbutte]

Sorry, but racing to be first to wave the white flag is not a winning position.

[NatteringNabobs]

Being in the USMC I know you can only surrender when you have not yet defeated the enemy. Since we have defeated and hanged the leader its called "COMING HOME".

Please tell me who surrenders in your white flag case? Osama? Please wake up and read a non-partisan report sometime.

[OneAmerica]

Agreed! I have often wondered that since in my mind we have already won the war.

[dnegri]

Please explain in sufficient detail exactly how, if we leave, Al-Qaida will take control of Iraq. John McCain stated as much, today. So, since you're an expert on white flags, please explain why McCain's "hypothesis" shouldn't be covered with a big red flag: Warning! Fear Monger Alert.
Please explain in sufficient detail....

[desmirl]

When and where was your combat tour? Military experts, like yourself, do need to display their records to achieve ligitimacy.

[ChristianEcon.com]

Yet that's what the Republicans did by caving into Al Qaeda beyond their wildest dreams.

Sure you guys are so weak you waved the white flag, but did you have to roll out the red carpet?

Now we're a nation that not only launched a historically senseless war in response but openly tortures, has an admin that flaunts law, plants news stories, spies on it's own citizenry, expands executive power, etc. etc.

Thanks Republicans. Could you possibly be any weaker?