We are coming up in January on the 40th anniversary of the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v. Wade. What are the chances that the Supreme Court will overrule Roe if Mitt Romney is elected president?
A reasonable guess at present, based on past performance, is that five of the current justices (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Kennedy and Sotomayor) would vote to reaffirm Roe, and four of the current justices (Roberts, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas) would vote to overrule Roe.
Thus, for Roe to be overruled, Romney, if elected, would have to have the opportunity to replace at least one of the five justices who support Roe. Based on the life expectancies of those five justices and on past experience, there is at least a 50 percent chance that at least one of those five justices will leave the Court in the next four years.
That does not mean, however, that there is a 50 percent chance that Romney's election will result in Roe being overruled. This is so because not every justice appointed by presidents committed to overruling Roe actually votes to do so. In the years since Roe, three Republican presidents who were clearly opposed to Roe have appointed seven justices to the Supreme Court. President Reagan appointed Justices O'Connor, Scalia and Kennedy; President H.W. Bush appointed Justices Souter and Thomas; and President George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito.
Of those seven justices, three failed to vote to overrule Roe. Although they may have questioned the wisdom of Roe, they nonetheless concluded that respect for precedent required them to adhere to Roe. In so doing, they narrowed the scope of Roe in some significant respects, but they reaffirmed the core holding that a woman has a constitutional right to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, subject to reasonable regulation by the state.
Of the other four justices appointed by presidents committed to overruling Roe, two -- Scalia and Thomas -- have already voted unequivocally to overrule Roe. The other two -- Roberts and Alito -- have not yet had occasion to address that question directly. But given their general approach to precedent (they are stunningly quick to overrule prior decisions if they disagree with them), and their hostile approach to abortion-related issues generally, it is virtually certain that they will join Scalia and Thomas in voting to overrule Roe, if given the opportunity to do so.
Thus, if Romney is elected and gets to appoint a justice to replace one of the five justices who currently support Roe, there is roughly a 60 percent probability that that new justice will vote to overrule Roe. If we put these two numbers together, it is reasonable to predict that if Romney is elected there is a 30 percent chance that the Court will vote to overrule Roe v. Wade (60 percent of 50 percent).
In fact, though, the probability is slightly higher than that, because it is possible that more than one of the five justices who currently support Roe will leave the Court in the next four years and that Romney will therefore get two or more bites at the apple. Given that possibility, the odds that Romney will succeed in appointing a justice who will vote to overrule Roe increase to at least 40 percent.
Thus, for those men and women who care about the continuing authority of Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right of women to make decisions for themselves about whether to bear or beget a child, the stakes in this election are very high indeed.
Could Romney Overturn Roe v. Wade? | Drudge Retort
Mitt Romney Abortion Stance Changes, As Candidate Says He Won ...
Obama: No doubt Roe v. Wade could be overturned if Romney wins
Thinking women should vote for Mitt Romney
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| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Your 'donation' was refused. Get a life.
IF she chooses to abort..tough...now as to the issue if she chooses to have it and a man doesn't want it that's a different issue entirely, but please do not pretend your rights were violated because it's insulting
Also your silly notion that women want men subservient to them is insane...women do not want any such thing, it just seems many men confuse equality with superiority because they've been told most of their lives that women are the weaker sex and therefore not entitled to equal treatment...but that's false and you need to realize that
Truly, there is no man, no husband, no boyfriend, no father or priest or legislator, who has the right to make that decision for a woman. There is no instance in which women can make such profound decisions for male reproductive rights, so I see no logical way for males to make decisions for females. It is a personal issue for that woman and her conscence.
Abortion has always been a fact; it simply needs to be kept safe. Choice is actually simple. If you don't believe in abortion,do not have one.
SUPPORTING OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
GO VOTE - GO OBAMA!!!!
NO! VOTE for these people at YOUR PERIL! NO amount of money will save you!
The ruling was that 1st trimester abortions are protected federally, and the states would control it after that and make their own rules
If your answer is none- you are part of the problem- Not the solution.