Iran: Let's Get Back To Business!

One of the most politically complex issues confronted by the Western world is its handling of Iran. Thirty years of disputes, including eight years of ostracizing and economically boycotting Iran, have been totally ineffective, as was the Bush administration's more directly confrontational stance. The United States cannot drive Iran into bankruptcy because of Iran's ranking as the world's fourth largest oil producer. The boycott of Iranian banks because they handle the accounts of the Iranian Army was a particularly bad idea, since every substantial bank in the world handles army accounts. There are 44 foreign banks in Iran and the government recently decided to allow more foreign branches in the country. In other words, Iran's substantial oil revenues will find their ways into the banking system, regardless of the U.S. policy. It is time to reconsider one of the biggest failures of the U.S. foreign policy.

I am definitely not underestimating the threat that Iran represents to the world. Its possible production of nuclear weapons in a few years, its non-democratic regime and its anti-Israeli stance are particularly alarming. But we should not forget that it is also the second largest Jewish population in the Middle East after Israel. Their involvement in Iraq (with the consensus of the local leadership the U.S. put in place), with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and with Hamas in Palestine mean that the future of peace in the Middle East requires a serious reconsideration of our attitude vis-à-vis Iran. The enormity of the conflict is such that political progress, initiated with President Obama's first declaration on the subject, will take years to produce concrete results.

Does that mean that we should not try to (re)build normal business and trade relationships with Iran now? Do we need to continue to enforce an ineffective boycott? The question merits close examination for a number of reasons.

The last election and the following demonstrations have significantly damaged the united front of the leadership in Iran. For the first time since the revolution, the clerical leadership of the mullahs is deeply divided. Significant demonstrations protested against what every country knows but refuses to openly state: the elections were won by the opposition. But taking advantage of these divisions will require subtlety, certainly not confrontation. We cannot afford to support openly the opposition, but can support openness, especially in business.

When I first went to Iran for business in 1976, I was impressed by the quality, wisdom and shrewdness of their business leadership. After I joined the NYSE, those business interactions could only happen at global meetings such as the World Economic Forum, where the Iranian leadership was represented. They were keen to understand and develop capital markets. The Tehran Stock Exchange has quadrupled in market capitalization since 2000 and its trading was multiplied by five.

Now is the time for the administration to send a clear signaling that, in a measured and limited way, they no longer object to business dealings in sectors that carry no military or nuclear energy risks. The best way for the situation to improve, is for the Iranians to see concretely that the Western world is willing to deal with them in a fair way. This will strengthen the hand of the Iranian partisans of openness better than any statements or declarations.

It will also be good business for everybody. Iran needs to export as much as it needs to import. The fourth five-year plan provides for the creation of free trade zones to allow gateways to and from international markets. Free trade zones can become gateways for other positive exchanges as well. We should encourage them.

Even if the U.S. continues to refuse to do business with Iran, others will not follow its lead. Are we convinced that it is smart to let Russian, Chinese or Indian interests build businesses (and influence) in Iran? Is it the right policy to refuse to be part of the $ 10 billion of foreign direct investments in 2007 in beverage, tobacco, textiles, clothing, leather, chemical, steel and oil derivatives? Most of the largest European groups in the energy, automotive and engineering sectors already have substantial presence in Iran. The U.S. simply cannot continue to ignore this market.

For those who would have any doubts, I have absolutely no contacts or cooperation activities with Iran and my comment are entirely based on my personal assessment of the situation, and its urgency.

Comments

[anti-tazi]

Crimes of IRI since 1979 against its own citizens since 1979:


http://www.iranrights.org/english/memorial.php

http://www.iranrights.org/

Recent batch of crimes: 2009

http://tehran.stanford.edu/list/


Mass graves:

Khavaran: silencing the dead
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/paymaneh-amiri/khavaran-silencing-dead

[anti-tazi]

To Huffington Post staff:

I thought you might want to know about this since I haven't seen it posted anywhere on Huff:

Maziar Bahari's wife
Paola Gourley, whose husband, a Newsweek journalist Maziar Bahari, is held as a political prisoner

Rachel Maddow show:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96OSrbr95yk&feature=player_embedded

Please sign the petition if you can.

http://freemaziarbahari.org/

[wereeverywhere]

(belatedly) Fanned for your getting the word out and your advocacy of the resistance movement.

[anti-tazi]

IRAN: Ahmadinejad aide says president only got '4 million' votes

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/08/iran-ahmadinejad-aide-says-president-only-got-4-million-votes.html

Form Mr. Ugeux and Louisamast or soraya:

Iran’s Election Drama More Elaborate Than You Think
http://original.antiwar.com/sahimi/2009/06/23/irans-election-drama/

[anti-tazi]

if obama admin engages iran diplomatically and shows genuine respect for iran's rights then anti-americanism will be a much less effective political tool for the hardliners. a vast majority of iranians want better relations with U.S. and the West, So, Mr. President, instead od sanctions, let's talk to the mullahs first without any preconditions to find out whether negotiations and normalization of relationship is what they aspire to.

[anti-tazi]

Mr. Ugeux: Let's remember them while making those lucrative contracts:

From Stnaford University:

http://tehran.stanford.edu/list/

[anti-tazi]

The Final Showdown:

http://www.iranian.com/main/2009/aug/final-show-down

[anti-tazi]

To: Hass and Louisa-Mast:

If you have not been to Iran lately, let me tell you what the new generation feels. The new generation has no memory and no hatred of the Shah, and no particular affinity with Islam that they see every day in action, and thus would not judge these criminals based on those same criteria as older people.

Even their support for likes of Mousavi is out of desperation for getting out of the abyss by hanging on to the only worn-out rope that is available, and not out of belief or trust or respect for him. Mousavi was confronted and cursed in University of Sistan and Baluchestan right before election about the same issues; if you have not seen reports of that confrontation, I suggest that you look it up .

What we are seeing every day now, broken jaws, broken skull of 12-year olds,Raped men and women, Face-cutting, limb-cutting, ripped off womb, torn away bottoms of young boys and girls, and delivery of dead 12 year old boy to his parents with broken skull, did NOT begin on June 22; it began on the first day that khomeini was in charge, and has continued, in various degrees, to this day. People are just not going to take it anymore. This movement transcends Mousavi et al and he knows it too.

[louisamast]

Apparently you deny the fact that Ahmadinejad gained almost 2/3 of the votes in the recent election. That explains how deeply knowledgeable you are regarding the present Iran's situation and what people think in Iran!

[anti-tazi]

LOL, Do you work for the IRI?

I won't even respond to your poor attempt at spreading disinformation.

[wereeverywhere]

I've yet to see someone who attacked the protesters who hasn't instead wrecked their own credibility. Welcome to the wrong side of history.

[anti-tazi]

Let the Diplomacy begin now. Obama should directly talk to both Khamenie and Ahmadinejad, with no pre-condition. The sooner he realizes who he is dealing with the better he'll be able to map out a policy towards Iran.

[anti-tazi]

US exports to Iran jump tenfold under Bush

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/08/iran.usa

I
---ran buying more from US in spite of tensions
By Sharon Theimer, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON – Iran spent nearly twice as much on U.S. imports during President Barack Obama’s first months in office as it did during the same period in 2008, showing that despite trade penalties and tense relations, the two countries are still doing business.

The U.S. exported $96 million in goods to Iran from January through April, according to an Associated Press analysis of U.S. government trade data compiled by the World Institute for Strategic Economic Research in Holyoke, Mass. U.S. exports to Iran totaled $51 million during the same period in 2008 and $27 million over those months in 2007.

[anti-tazi]

Inform yourself about the nature of the regime you're trying to make profit from.


Speech by
Nina Aghdam
In Stockholm & Amsterdam
On the 11th/12th Memorial Day of Massacre
of Political Prisoners in the summer of 1988, (more than 30,000 were executed in prison within a period of one month). Google Khavaran or Khavaron for the location of their mass grave.


Association of Iranian Political Prisoners(in Exile)


http://www.kanoon-zendanian.org/english/Rape.htm

Watch the Interview with the Prisoners:
http://www.iranian.com/main/2009/aug/azar-ale-kanan

"A Few Simple Shots"

Crimes Against Humanity Committed by the Islamic Republic of Iran

(full length movie)

http://www.movie.article19film.com/

[MARNIE2]

IF the lSLAMIC Regime [GOVT] can do these ATROCITY'S with own people [ the shere brutality]
is unreal ! those in POWER have [BLACK-HEARTS] . & TO TRUST IRANIAN GOVT. W/ NUCLEAR W.E. ?= BOMB ? ABSOLUTELY NO-WAY !!!

[anti-tazi]

Let's engage Iran, especially, the IRGC and Khamenie, to really find out who is really running the country.

Today, somce clergies demanded the arrest of Khameni, which reminds me of the Robespierre of French Revolution.

Robespierre was gvining a speech at the Convention before Jean-Lambert Tallien interrupted him. Robespierre soon found himself at a loss for words after one deputy called for his arrest and another, Marc Guillaume Valdiergave, gave a mocking impression of him. When one deputy realised Robespierre's inability to respond, the man shouted, "The blood of Danton chokes him!"The Convention ordered the arrest of Robespierre, On July 27, Robespierre was arrested as an enemy of the Republic and, like Danton before him, died at the hands of his own bloody machinery of justice along with twenty-one other radical leaders of the Convention.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximilien_Robespierre

The same fate awaits Khamenie and his military Junata: IRGC Inc.

[Hass]

The WORST THING you can do to the Iranian regime is to engage it. THe hardliners there are just as afraid of engagement as the hardliners in the US and Israel. For the IRanian hardliners, they realize that engagement with the US will come at a signficant cost to them and their monopoly on power. The hardliners in Israel see a potential Iran-US engagement as a threat to Israel's primacy. Naturally, they'll do their best to prevent it. THe question is whether the Obama administration has what it takes to accomplish this feat.

Remember, before Nixon went to CHina, he had to scuttle relations with the pro-Taiwanese lobby. Can Obama do the same with the pro-Israel lobby? I seriously doubt it.

[louisamast]

Unfortunately you are correct. The spider web of AIPAC controlling both the Senate and the Congress is much more powerful than the old Pro-Taiwanese Lobby in Nixon's time. No comparison what so ever. Awareness in average citizen is the key to show support for Obama and elect true patriotic representatives in future elections. As long as our MSM is under control of AIPAC that remains a good wish.

[MARNIE2]

ISLAMIC AUTHORITY are POWER HUNGRY MULLAH'S / SHOULD GET WHAT THEY [DESERVE] !
true it is a [hard-ship] on the people . but it's up them [govt] to[ RE-THINK] THEIR OWN POLICYS !
IT SHOULD [NOT] BE UP TO US TO [CHANGE ] OUR THINKING .[BUT] FOR THEM TO MAKE CHANGES !! WHAT IS IRAN'S PRIORITY ?RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY IRAN IS ALWAYS IN OUR FACE !

[louisamast]

"Iran is always in our face" One reason could be because our CIA toppled their democratic elected government in 1953 and brought a dictator puppet in power and took the whole country as hostage for nearly 26 years!

[anti-tazi]

Democratically elected Under what democratic government? Did Iran have a Democratic system of governance in 1953???

[Zheegool]

First lets agree that the Iranian regime is a brutal, barbaric dictatorship. Its 30 yr resume includes over 100K political executions including minors and minorities, stoning and raping women and a long list of atrocities. So there is a moral element to this question that we simply can't ignore - even if your objectives are served by "making deals with the regime".

Having said that, sanctions are also oppressive and have been ineffective (so far). Especially because of the Russia and China connection which supply Iran with everything they need. Not enough space to elaborate here but its not clear REMOVING sanctions would work given the control of the Iranian "Oligarchs" over all aspects of the economy.
But even if removing sanction is the right decision, now is not the right time for this. Today the dictatorship is struggling for legitimacy and stability. The people have risen against their oppressors, and they are chanting "down with Russia" in response to their collaboration with the mullahs. The economy is beginning to break after years of mismanagement. I think the currency is not far off a major devaluation if oil prices stay low. Talk of removing sanctions in such an environment would give this brutal regime bragging rights of a victory and be a slap in the face of the brave Iranian people. Right now we need to find a way to effectively support people in their struggle - a struggle that will take time, but in which they will surely prevail.

[louisamast]

Comparing our so called "friendly" allies in the ME such SA or Egypt, Iran far more open society with a government that has strong public support. Your analysis and argument is very much unfair and biased and bears no merit.

[Hass]

Sorry but Iran's economy has been doing rather well, and the demonstrations were not against the regime but pro-Mousavi, who is a regime insider (more so than Ahmadinejad)

[louisamast]

You are certainly correct. But the demonstration made a good propaganda tool. Very much like the famous misquoted phrase from Ahmadinejad's speech.

[anti-tazi]

Are you Richard Hass of CFR??
ARE you Austrian?

[wereeverywhere]

Neither the economy nor the legitimacy of the IRI theocracy is doing very well. The protesters cries of death to the Dictator were not done out of love for the repressive state. Why on earth do you make your statements up?

[louisamast]

Mr. Ugeux, you make too much sense and for the same reason not many of our representatives will listen to you. It is well evident by now that special interest groups such AIPAC has a short leash on majority of our representatives. Therefore many decisions are made that are against US interests as long as such special groups support them. In order to implement your advice, we first have to learn how to elect true patriotic people as our representatives. That may take many years or perhaps a whole generation!

[Freenation]

70 out of 100 sen.ators wrote a letter to o.bama asking to demand a.rabs for more concession­s...the situation is more sickening.­..it is jsut the reps who are bought out by the A.IPAC ma.fia....

[louisamast]

So 30 of them are going to worry about the next election and what AIPAC has in oven for them.