Fixing a Failed Strategy in Afghanistan

As the debate on future U.S. strategy draws to a close, the war in Afghanistan is spreading to the North (an area that had previously been relatively quiet), the balance of power in Afghanistan has shifted in the Taliban's favor, and the Afghan government continues to lose legitimacy in the eyes of the population and international community. More U.S. troops alone will not fix a flawed approach.

Here is what a new, successful U.S. strategy should look like:

• Secure key cities and roads: If a state can be rebuilt in Afghanistan it will start in the cities, so less energy should be focused on the Pashtun countryside. This approach will decrease Coalition casualties and increase local participation.
• Redistribute Coalition troops: Troops are heavily deployed in the South and East where the prospects for success are low. They should be refocused on the North, where the Taliban can be stopped.
• Redistribute development aid: Development dollars are currently being directed most heavily to areas where Coalition control is weakest. These scarce resources should instead be focused on the more peaceful districts of Afghanistan.
• Build an Afghan partner: Increase the size and capabilities of the Afghan National Army, but understand that this will not happen overnight. An Afghan army of 150,000 by 2015 is a realistic and achievable goal.

The Coalition badly needs a success in the next few months to counter the widely held perception that defeat is the likely outcome. The current strategy could very well fail and result in yet another demand for reinforcements next year. A vigorous debate -- more about strategy than resources -- is needed.

To learn more, please see my latest report on Fixing U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan.

 

Comments

[nematsadat]

06:15 PM on 11/18/2009

Dear Mr. Dorronsoro,

Your strategy is extremely flawed. Why retreat to Afghan cities when the war between tradition vs. modernity, globalization vs. Islamic extremism, and freedom versus Sharia Law and Al Qaeda terrorism is being waged in the Pashtun tribal belt? Your proposal will plunge the US/NATO into the dreadful fate of the Soviet Union which led to their defeat. In the 1980's, Soviet forces were limited to the cities and the mujahideen used the countryside to mobilize the population as a launching pad.

Second, your strategy of giving up the Pashtun areas (in the South and East of Afghansitan) and focusing on territories where the Northern Alliance North will actually create a wedge and plunge the country into a brutal Civil War between Hazara, Taijk, and Uzbek warlords vs. the Taliban insurgency. And the US and NATO forces will be caught in the crossfires of an expanding civil war that will be even harder to contain?

Please read my analysis, "Why Afghanistan is the new post Cold War Berlin"
http://ohmygov.com/blogs/general_news/archive/2009/10/30/why-afghanistan-is-the-new-post-cold-war-berlin.aspx

The way to win in Afghansitan is to build a stable state by reversing corruption and restoring rule of law so that a sustainable civil soceity can emerge and promote long-term development.