How is it that despite adulatory media coverage, long lines of volunteers at his campaign offices, and Americans deeply unhappy about the direction of the country, Barack Obama is rapidly losing support - and control of the agenda - to John McCain?
It's because Obama has reverted to the whiny, wimpy style that nearly allowed Hillary Clinton to wipe him out in September, 2007 - until he found his backbone and actually started to stand up for himself.
When McCain launches volley after volley of attack on Obama's policies (with photos of Paris and Brittany thrown in to get the media's attention), what's Obama's response? To ride in on his My Little Pony and cry because McCain is - how low! - criticizing his policies and questioning his capacity to lead in a mildly creative way.
This self-righteous simpering might make Obama supporters feel like he's "changing the tone" of politics, but it's not doing anything to stop his slide, shape the debate, or answer the legitimate question the McCain campaign keeps asking: is Obama actually ready to lead?
So far, Obama's response is to give McCain's advisers exactly what they want: McCain attacks, Obama complains about the attacks and then capitulates on everything from illegal wiretapping to offshore oil drilling. Obama is once again caught up in the great Democratic myth that voters make up their minds by carefully calibrating which candidate's issue positions are closest to his own (a major topic of my book, Fear and Courage in the Democratic Party).
Newsflash, Obama: To most voters, campaigns are not an egghead mental Olympics between two walking policy platforms. They're primal battles that test how candidates respond under fire. And for the last several weeks, Obama has been failing that test: crying about McCain's attacks and then surrendering. To most voters, this sends a simple message: if Obama can't stand up to a babbling incompetent like John McCain, how is he ever going to stand up to the oil executives, the health care lobby, or, for that matter, Osama bin Laden?
Of course, it's not as if McCain is passing this trial by fire with flying colors. When he gets criticized, he tends to respond with incoherent ramblings unhinged from either reality or his own past statements. But that's not getting noticed because McCain isn't facing much fire - all he's facing is Obama's whining.
The good news is that we've been here before, and Obama has shown a capacity to emerge from his fetal crouch, stop spewing only rhetorical rainbows and daisies, and start throwing some lethal punches of his own. In the summer of 2007, Obama was riding all his inspiring hopes and dreams to...a 23 point deficit in the national polls. After being encouraged by Arianna Huffington, Isaiah Wilner and others to "start running for President of the United States instead of class president," he did just that and launched some effective, hard-hitting attacks on Hillary's voting record and her ties to corporate lobbyists. It was the critical moment of the 2007 campaign when Obama effectively upended Hillary's inevitability narrative and regained momentum.
Unfortunately, as quickly as Obama learned James Carville and Paul Begala's basic lesson of political summer school - "It's hard for your opponent to say bad things about you when your fist is in his mouth" - he forgot it and reverted to the dreamy bromides that inspire nerdy liberals but do little to prove to people in economic pain and national security anxiety that he's got the toughness to fight for them.
So what's Obama to do? First, he has to untie his hand from around his back and start dedicating a lot more resources to defining McCain (for some reason, the Obama campaign seems to have bought into the McCain campaign's plan to make this election purely about Obama, under the crazy miscalculation that people have unshakeable opinions about McCain, despite the wild swings in his policies, his poll numbers, and the relative paucity of media coverage he gets). Second, Obama needs a running mate with the toughness to go on the offense, not some blander version of Obama's confrontation-wary self. That means someone like Wesley Clark, John Edwards, Jack Reed, Brian Schweitzer, or even Hillary Clinton, not some lily-livered, lobbyist-friendly, uninspiring non-entity like Tim Kaine.
Finally, Obama can't afford to repeat the Democrats' 2004 mistake of trying to run a positive convention, of which the Democrats were very proud, but which produced only a two percent bump in the polls, about 1/5th the minimum bump parties usually get. The Republicans responded to the Democrats' smiley hug-fest with their usual political napalm (remember Zell Miller?). And they got what no pundit thought possible - a 10 point jump in the polls (a triumph bested only by the Democrats' own 1992 convention in which speaker after speaker (including then Democrat Zell Miller) lustily trashed George Bush Sr.'s myriad failures.
Even more in 2008 than 2004, people in America are angry. They want and need a president who can at least occasionally channel their frustration, not someone so besotted by his own Platonic ideal of politics that he lacks the gumption to fight hard for himself or the American people. Obama has proven in the past that he has the ability to get his head out of the clouds and down onto the ground where elections are actually decided - and show he has the capacity to be the strong leader Americans want - but we need him there fast, before Team Bush/McCain's savvy and his own diffidence cause another surrender - and another Democratic defeat.
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Wasn't it John Edwards that did most of the attacking last fall?
As a life-long democrat I can say without reservation that it's not so much that Obama is a wimp. Democrats in general are full-out wussies, pansies, and limp little dishrags. We are. It's the only reason Republicans, whose policies are so idiotic as to defy imagination, manage to win election after election at our expense.
We took impeachment "off the table" from DAY F-ING ONE of a mandate-granting landslide victory. We are so afraid of being called "weak" by those across the isle that we roll over and vote to give this madman more money for his illegal war.... not once... but HOW many times?
Democrats mop the floor in cushy University cities full of pale, spindly, vegan intellectuals, but anyone raised in a town where masculinity means sports and hunting will never vote for someone with a D next to their name as long as we continue to wet our collective pants at the mere mention of a firearm. Those dems who have never even held a gun, but who vote trying to keep anyone else from having one? Wusses, plain and simple.
So when you sit and lament Obama being a wimp, why not pull back on the focus a little to realize that almost all Dems are wimps. We're a wimpy party. It's the biggest problem facing us, and I'm not sure there's a fix for it.
I LOVE SENATOR OBMA WITH ALL MYHEART AND I PRAY EVERYDAY THAT HE WINS, BUT HE NEEDS TO GROW SOME BALLS AND START CALLING MCCAIN OUT, I AM STARTING TO GET UPSET B/C I FEEL THAT HE IS LETTING MCCAIN RUN ALL OVER HIM...SENATOR, GROW ONE PLEASE POINT OUT ALL MCCAIN'S FLIP FLOPS AND LACK OF PLANS NOW B/C THE MEDIA WILL NOT DO IT!!! DO THIS BEFORE YOU LOOK AND HE IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. THE COUNTRY REALLY CAN NOT AFFORD THAT, IT IS TIME TO GET TOUGH NOW!!!
This Wimp label is so old and so is the advice from wanna-be campaign managers. This is a political campaign not a school yard fight and as much as we would like to think we would react differently to McCain's ads and attacks, Obama's campaign has to look at the bigger picture and they know and see issues that MANY of you do not. He got this far when many people counted him out so I have faith that they are waiting until after the convention and/or the VP annoucement to really define McCain. The McCain campaign continues to provide the material and videos that Obama needs Ot to go after McCain. I believe they will hit McCain hardest when voters are paying attention and as the summer ends. Otherwise it would be wasted.
You've got faith? That's nice. But you have to realize that faith + $2 = $2.
A campaign is exactly like a fight. Look at boxing matches. You've got 12 rounds - fixed timing and judges awarding points and declaring the victor. There are many different strategies - go for the knockout right away, Ali used the "rope-a-dope" to lure some of his more aggressive opponents to wear themselves out and then attack when they are tired, etc.
But the bottom line is to score points or knock the other guy out. And right now Obama is letting mccain score points and control the fight. Obama's not that good to not only let mccain control the conversation, but to fuel the pig's rhetoric by looking like a "wimp."
When the corporate media is working for your opponent, you need to control the message and the conversation as much as possible. And Obama has done a horrible job so far.
Spoken like a child. Actually you sound more like the media out looking for blood. These are the same types of criticisms that came up during the primaries BUT he won anyway with most of his integrity in tact. What McCain is doing is not going to work. Obama doesn't have to trash McCain's image he is doing a good job all by himself. And when Obama is ready, all the stuff that McCain has done so far will be great material. Obama does not need to get down and dirty like McCain and if he did, you can bet the media will pounce all over it and it will be a serious backlash for Obama - the MSM and McCain will use any low trick by Obama to further their argument that Obama is not who he says he is. You yourself state that the MSM is in the tank for McCain, do you really think he can get away with the same tactics? Obama can and WILL fight back - but he will have to fight back with FACTS not school yard punches. EVERY TIME PEOPLE BEGIN TO DOUBT OR UNDERESTIMATE OBAMA HE PROVES THEM WRONG - EVERY SINGLE TIME! And I will bet money that the Obama campaign is gearing up for the kill. You guys don't know what you are talking about and I wish all of you would stop trying to make this a "Whose got the bigger B*LLS contest"! Obama is nobody's B*tch!!!!
Thank you, thank you, thank you, Glenn for an accurate and insightful blog post.
Here's Obama's problem. For better or for worse, the number of people who are attracted to this "new politics" caca is a minority. He already has all those voters anyway.
As you stated, the American people are angry over economic hard times and anxious about national security and the Iraq War.
Obama is going to to have to remind people who they should be angry at. Conservative policies have failed America. Supply-side economics has failed under three Presidents now, each time a bigger failure than the last. Neoconservative foreign policy has isolated us and left us weaker and strengthened our enemies. Instead of pretending to be above the fray, Obama needs to remind the american people that these are conservative failures. One doesn't have to be "an angry black man" to mobilize people. Ronald Reagan changed the direction of the country with a smile.
The way to tie Bush to McCain is to aggressively take on the conservative movement, for it is conservative policies which have failed us.
"New politics" has taken him as far as its going to and it isn't going to be enough. Now he needs to show he's a fighter and will take on the bad guys on the middle and working classes behalf.
As a black man in America- Obama is caught between a rock and a hard place .Face it the slighest bit of aggression or anger from him will throw him into the stereotype of angry black man. Also given the Islamic rumors surrounding him - its just a few inches from irritation to terrorist in the mind of those so inclined.
White men can pound the table, point their fingers and yell , but people of color and women who do so
are seen as threatening and crazy.
He delegated his fighting to others during the primary , black blogsters and leftists but those people have no viability with middle America in the same way they did with the Dems alone. So he is majorlly handicapped coming out the gate in this regard.
Your points are well-taken tbone, but the author is nonetheless right. Obama doesn't need to
be angry. He just needs to remember and reconnect with what made his candidacy successful during the primary.
Clinton went after Obama with determined barbs for much of the primary season. He was smart enough to stick to his own message and most of those barbs fell to the ground harmlessly. The
last weekend before the Pa. primary, he faltered and let himself get drawn into
'reactive mode' with her, and he paid a big price. That should have been a valuable lesson about the importance of keeping the game on his own court.
McCain's 'rock star' ads would have had zero traction if Obama had stayed on message. If you
like a candidate's positions, believe they represent a better future for the country, so much the better if he or she is also well-liked. But Obama has twisted himself into a pretzel with vascillating positions on important issues. He's engineered his own 'candidate trustworthiness' issue
and that's the underlying hook in the McCain ads. Not that he's a 'star', but that he's a star
without substance.
Recently asked about one of the ads, McCain jovially responded that 'hey, our supporters are just having some fun' - wink, wink - subliminal note to voters: 'this guy can't even deal with an old man who's shaking his tree a bit. In a way, McCain is doing to Obama what Obama did to Clinton during the primary.
McCain is successfully turning this crucial election into a referendum on Obama. Obama MUST NOT LET THIS HAPPEN. With so many Americans" strong disapproval of the Bush administration, THIS MUST BE A REFERENDUM ON A McCAIN PRESIDENCY BEING A THIRD BUSH TERM!! Obama"s ad of McCain and Bush together with the "same failed policies" graphic was a step in the right direction. However, they need to be relentless in getting out this message.
Also, Obama should milk Phil Graham"s "mental recession/a nation of whiners" comments for all they"re worth in a commercial. Include images of McCain"s $500 loafers and him riding in the golf cart with Bush Sr. to drive the point home.
While Obama"s at it, he should point out the hypocrisy of McCain calling Obama an elitist. Create an comparing their upbringings and personal finances. Juxtaposed against McCain"s world of wealth and privilege, Obama (a self-made man) has the ultimate American success story to tell.
Finally, Obama had a very successful trip overseas. He should create an ad showing him on the world stage with heads of state, military commanders and our troops. Obama was warmly received and those were such powerful images"he did look very presidential. I don"t believe that we, as Democrats, should allow slimy Republicans to turn Obama"s popularity and message of hope against him. I, for one, think it's A GOOD THING to see citizens of the world once again waving American flags...and embracing Obama and the change that he represents.
That's the question: where are his ads? And they need to be hard-hitting so they get onto the networks with a minimal ad buy, not just "happy happy joy joy" stuff that will sink without a trace. He needs to fight back against the smears - yesterday - not just figure that this stuff is so crazy no one will believe it anyway. Remember John Kerry and the swiftboaters? He's reacting in exactly the same way. And sorry, but starting up a website isn't enough The only people who will see that are the ones who choose to go to it. His model needs to be Bill Clinton in '92, who set up a rapid response team that was out there rebutting every single smear at the first available opportunity, sometimes in the same news cycle. And of course, with a 24-hour news cycle, it has to be done all the more quickly. If he doesn't learn the lesson of the last two campaigns, we're in for four more years of Republican insanity and possibly the death of our democracy, which is already on life support.
The Democratic Party should help its candidates and help put a stake through the heart of trickledown economics by establishing the following meme. "When you vote Republican, you vote for hard times."
It's true, memorable and can counter the misapprehension that the Republicans are the party of national defense. A sound economy and an educated citizenry are the foundations of national defense.
Hear, hear.
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Posted August 2, 2008 | 02:26 PM (EST)