Insider Advantage Pollster on the New Southern Swing States: "People Are Underestimating the Numbers for Obama"

Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery suggests that, in analyzing likely voting trends, not enough focus has been placed on "the new (southern) swing states." As a longtime professional pollster, Towery thinks voting results in southern states with large African-American populations and increasing numbers of young first-time registered voters could amount to a sea change in the country's electoral map.

"There's a new dynamic out there, " says Towery. "Georgia, for example, has one of the highest young voter-age population groups in the nation-- individuals who are age 18-29. That gives Obama a footing in Georgia that he doesn't have in Florida, for instance... Also, almost 30 percent of the vote in Georgia is African America, one of the highest percentages in the nation....

"If Obama's able to carry only 22 percent of the white vote... I've been watching it very carefully and chronicling it as well and I'll have a real story to tell by the end of this campaign."

(Full disclosure: Matt Towery is a client of mine. --G.D.)

Comments

[riverhouse]

Let's hope the GOP has lost its ability to convince middle class and working class voters to vote against their own best interests. This is a game changing election for ordinary Americans, those who don't believe as McCain does that middle class constitutes earnings of $5 mil a year. Bush McCain and the GOP corporate welfare guys have destroyed the American dream for working and middle class people. It's time to take this country back and give some well deserved credit to the people who actually make the economic wheels turn instead of the big corporate guys who are given every tax advantage while feeding their greed.

[globalcitizenlinda]

I repeat close to what Donna Brazzile said in a panel a few days ago: "if some people will NOT vote for Barack purely based on his race and yet he spent nine months of his life in the womb of a white woman" then this is a very poor reflection of those people

[Decipherer]

Another sign of an Obama landslide.

I live in Northern Virginia, which put Jim Webb in the Senate two years ago and will do likewise with Mark Warner who is leading his GOP opponent by ~20 points. I think we'll also give Barack Obama the electoral votes he needs to go over the top this year as well.

Why do I think that? Well, in general statewide polls show Obama leading pretty much everywhere. On street level, one clear indicator for me is a neighbor who every election decorates his house with huge GOP campaign signs of every kind for every office, complete with spotlights for night viewing.

This year? Nothing! No signs of any kind, no spotlights -- nothing.

On the face of it, our little GOP friend realizes the inevitable and has taken a powder. We've got lots more work to do to seal the deal, but folks, it is over.

Obama '08.

[Nia1999]

Another underestimation the McCain camp is over looking is the African American Republican's. After all the attacks the McCain campaign has been making against Obama in painting him as a scary Black man, does he honestly believe that African American republican males are also watching these attacks and do not seriously believe that these attacks also pertains to them, they are seriously mistaken. My brother is a republican and what he is seeing from his fellow republican's is really making him uncomfortable. As an African American male, when he's out and about folks don't know if he's a republican or a democrat, all they see is someone who looks like Barack Obama and they may attack him or his son who attends college away from home. His priorities are with his family first. I'm sure other African American republican's are thinking the same.

[SeanGardner]

Can't say I'm surprised.

I remember commenting on this blog as far back as January that is Obama were the nominee, he would win states like GA, NC, VA, and MO. Its just a matter of demographic shifts combined with Obama's superior ground game.

And don't look now, but the ground reports I'm receiving from Mississippi look good. Very good.

So don't be surprised to see Obama pick up at least 6 states in The South.

[lissamcbay]

Thanks for this great story. I live in midtown Atlanta, and teach at Georgia State University. I've been thinking all along that people are both underestimating (a) African-American turnout for 2008, and (b) the number of first- and second-generation immigrants in Atlanta who are citizens and can vote. I am confident that they will turn out, and vote overwhelmingly for Obama.

[SeanGardner]

I lived in Midtown Atlanta when I went to college there, so I know the city, and the state, very well. I agree that the media is underestimating the African-American vote (as the normally do), and underestimating the impact of Latinos, Native-Americans, and Asian-Americans - three groups Obama is leading McCain with by eye-popping margins.

From what I understand, the early voting in Georgia has gone so remarkably well in Georgia for Obama that right now, as we speak, Obama is leading in that state.

Things really look good.

[oneviciouslife]

I live in Georgia, and at least in Atlanta there is huge support for Obama. i don't know if that'll translate to a win though, especially if my republicans coworkers have anything to say about it. But i'm hopeful, this is the first time in a long time Georgia has been "too close to call."

[johnnygoodwud]

don't underestimate the racial feelings in this country. they are still out there,,,,,,,but, i think people are asking themselves, do i vote for mc cain, which is more of bush, and will make my life miserable, or do i vote for 'that one' the black guy, who just might make my life easier. right now it's not so much about race as it is 'pocket book issues'.

[vicenteduq]

INTRADE is a Web Casino where you can bet your Money for Presidential Candidates, at the National or State Level.

I give the Share Prices to buy options to win $100 dollars :

USA Nationally : Obama 75.5, McCain 23.1

Let us use the INTRADE bets to appraise the New Possibilities of Obama in the South.

State Obama McCain

Virginia 70 33
North Carolina 56 45
Missouri 52 46

West Virginia 44 65
Georgia 19 81


So according to bettors ( that feel pain if they lose their money ) West Virginia is more probable than Georgia.

But year 2008 has proved to be the dawn of a New Era and an "Anno Mirabilis" ( Miracle Year ), so everything is possible and there is a small probability that Obama takes Georgia.

The Odds at INTRADE for Indiana are this :

Obama 48, McCain 56

So Indiana seems very insecure for McCain, or at least that is the Opinion of those that risk their money.

More numbers and appraisals of Polls, Bets and Possibilities of Obama. And data about the Obama Coalition : Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, Multiracials, Youngsters, Millions of Educated and Rational Whites, etc . See here :

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

[Jezreel]

This is a great article. It's encouraging. It will be inspiring for all Americans if Obama can carry states like Georgia and N.C. I was born in NC at a time when racial apartheid was the norm. My mom died prematurely because AA were severely restricted in access to health care. The idea of a biracial man being elected POTUS in my lifetime leaves me almost speechless. that a man who represents the both of both worlds; black and white; could be elected POTUS speaks volumes about how far we, as a nation of people have come.

[R.W. Sanders - Huffpost Blogger]

strangely enough, i think we are both underestimating and overestimating the youth vote. we probably underestimate the number of young voters who have no landline phone and are undercounted in polls. history tells us that we tend to overestimate the turnout among young voters. My first experience was in 1968 though i never got "clean with gene" i did think young folks would elect him. then with the vote for eighteen year olds in 72, i was sure we'd elect mcgovern. i mean, with a name like mc-govern, how could you lose? i would also imagine that young folks get really tired of being told about low youth turnout. so you all get out there and prove us wrong!

[jusme2008]

I am a 40 year old WHITE woman living in Southern Georgia and I have already cast my vote for OBAMA/BIDEN and I voted a straight Democratic ticket....sorry Saxby, but you aligned yourself with George W, the war-happy idiot. I will happily tell anyone who asks (and some who don't) that I PROUDLY support Mr. Obama!

Obama's speeches remind me of speeches I've heard or read from JFK...even in this darkest of times, he inspires me to HOPE for a better future. Obama taught Constitutional Law and I believe he knows and respects the CONSTITUTION as much as I do. I PRAY racism vanishes in my lifetime because we will NEED all AMERICANS together to face the challenges before us like the economic crisis, terrorism, global warming and to find alternate energy. Obama is STEADY and LOGICAL and SMART .....AND HE EMBODIES THE BEST OF US, THE BEST OF AMERICA.

I mean, C'mon folks, a biracial, multicultural person who was raised by a single hard-working mother, sometimes on food stamps, who BOOT-STRAPPED himself through Ivy League and possibly into the White House! Isn't that the AMERICAN DREAM?? Aren't we supposed to SUPPORT the Horatio Algers stories of people who get ahead through hard work, courage and concern for others?

[IhaveaDREAMwhitegirl]

I agree with your post. Both Obama and Biden give me hope to hope again.

[chargedup]

I am a 53 year old bi-racial woman and I am so inspired and full of hope as a result of Obama and what he stands for. I am encouraging everyone to vote early and vote for the Obama/Biden ticket.

[Decipherer]

After what he did to a REAL war hero, Max Cleland, in the 2002 election, Saxby Chambliss has earned the "Most Despicable Politician in the 21st Century" award, after which he deserves to go down in humiliating defeat in three weeks. Make it happen, folks!

[DieHardObamaSupporter]

Although, I truly believe this will be a landslide, and nowhere close to what the pundits are claiming. However, with that said, I will not become complacent, and hope the rest of us will not. We need to continue to donate and go to our local campaign offices to man phonebanks and canvass.

[Kiabell04]

I've noticed a lot more ads airing down here in GA for Obama. I jut saw his ad twice within a 1 hour! He wasn't airing any ads since the Olympics, and now I see 'em almost everyday. I haven't seen many McCain ads lately.

[mawrm]

The sweet irony is Barack Obama is also quietly getting the "redneck" vote. Reason: folks aren't hung up on race as they used to be and they're seriously hurting from this economy. What folks seem to ignore is Southern whites over the years have been acclimated to Afr-American leadership - many have lived under successful Afr-Am mayors, governors, etc., seen successful Afr-Am business leaders and managers so the thought of an Afr-Am leader doesn't bother people as much as it might have 30-40 years ago. Actually, the only smear that would work against Obama with Southern whites is the Muslim smear given the strong Christian leanings in the south so unless that false smear could made a frontal issue (highly unlikely since it's been quite extensively debunked so only a whisper campaign can be done), folks are still going to be giving Barack Obama a look. Yes, the wedge issues like abortion, gay rights, etc., will remain but that would happen with any Dem candidate.
Anyhow, I might be wrong but I think folks are in for big surprise come election day....

[naeldwyck]

I hope you're right, but am also afraid there's still a lot of convincing to be done, see this excellent piece by George Packer: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/13/081013fa_fact_packer

[alicante]

I believe many voters will go to vote and choose Obama even though they never planned too because they know they want to get rid of these jokers that have been in charge over the last eight years.