While pondering during their bye week how they managed to squander a massive margin of error accumulated during a 5-0 start, the Giants were granted some extra margin of error when Atlanta, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Chicago all lost last week. After the Giants gut-wrenching loss to San Diego, it was generally assumed that losing to Atlanta this week would be a death-blow to their playoff hopes. But after their playoff competition laid a collective egg last week, a loss this week wouldn't be catastrophic in terms of the standings. But here's the thing: If they are not good enough to beat a banged-up and flawed Falcons team at home in a critical game, what are the chances that they will string together a run in their final six games against top competition? For practical purposes, let's just say that it's pretty likely that the Giants need to win this game.
Injury Notes:
Things were looking up for the Giants on this front until news broke late Friday that Antonio Pierce is out "indefinitely" with a bulging disc in his back. The latest reports as of this writing say it will be at least six weeks. Expect Chase Blackburn to replace him. This is bad news not only in the drop-off in talent for the next few weeks, but because the injury occurred too late in the week for Blackburn to work with the first team.
Before the Pierce news broke, Giants fans were excited about the return of Aaron Ross. Ross is listed as questionable but it is generally assumed he'll play. There hasn't been much indication of how much or where, however, so there's no answer to the speculation that he might eventually work in at safety.... Michael Boley returned to health two weeks ago against San Diego and by his own admission looked "rusty." Hopefully he'll be back in the swing of things and ready for his tough assignment chasing down Tony Gonzalez and Falcons running backs.... Eli Manning said his sore foot is "not an issue," and Justin Tuck said his shoulder is better than it had been since he first injured it against Dallas.
Injuries are more of a concern for the Falcons. Michael Turner, their outstanding running back who is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards, is almost definitely out.... Jerious Norwood, his speedy, change-of-pace complement, is listed as questionable with a hip injury that has kept him out the past few weeks.... Safety Erik Coleman is also questionable with a knee injury.... Roddy White, the Falcons number one receiver, is listed as questionable. But he's been listed as such for the last three weeks and has played and played well during that span.
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Falcons Offense vs. Giants Defense:
Last year, quarterback Matt Ryan was the league's most pleasant surprise. He led his team to the playoffs as a rookie, posted an 87.7 rating, and by the advanced metrics of Football Outsiders, had the best season of any rookie quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. But right now the jury is very much out on Matty Ice. In his first four games, Ryan averaged a rating of 103.1. In his last five, he has averaged a rating of 64.0 and has thrown 9 interceptions. Is this slump an aberration, or has Ryan officially come down to Earth? Giants fans face the same questions about their own team after a 2008 and beginning of 2009 that, like Ryan's performance in that same span, seemed almost too good to be true. The answers to these questions are forthcoming.
Ryan's top receiver is Roddy White, who this year has duplicated his late-blooming breakout season of last year and has firmly established himself as one of the league's top receivers. The Giants have struggled recently stopping other teams' number one receivers: Marques Colston (Saints), DeSean Jackson (Eagles), and Vincent Jackson (Chargers) have all enjoyed big games against the Giants. Therefore, stopping White - a responsibility that should fall mostly to Corey Webster - will be key. Another key will be stopping tight end Tony Gonzalez, the best ever at the position who is as good as ever at age 33. This places the onus on Michael Boley, Chase Blackburn, Danny Clark, and the Giants safeties.
Overall, Atlanta ranks 16th in the league in passing offense in terms of DVOA, a Football Outsiders stat that adjusts for situation and opponent. But that figure might be somewhat misleading because it doesn't account for the negative trend. Similarly, the Giants pass defense ranks 9th in the league against the pass, but that impressive ranking owes more to the Giants strong performance against a weak early season slate than anything they've done recently.
Atlanta's running game has been consistently impressive, however. In terms of DVOA, it ranks 6th in the league. But as mentioned above, Atlanta will probably be without Michael Turner and backup Jerious Norwood is questionable as well. (This has no bearing on this game, but Norwood's middle name is "Montreal.") Most likely, the starting running back will be Jason Snelling, who in 37 attempts is averaging 4.9 yards per carry compared to Turner's 5.0. Snelling is also the team's leading receiver out of the backfield with 14 catches for 132 yards. The loss of Turner surely isn't a good thing for the Falcons, but this Snelling guy looks more than serviceable.
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Giants Offense vs. Falcons Defense:
Eli's revival last week was a much-needed good sign for the passing game, which had slumped in the previous two games. Hopefully, they'll keep it going this week against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in DVOA. The Falcons pass defense has particularly struggled of late. Last week, they enabled Jake Delhomme to post a rating of 115.8. Three and four weeks ago, respectively, they were lit up by Drew Brees (111.7) and Tony Romo (141.6). Eli now claims that his foot is no longer a concern. With an extra week of practice to work with his young receivers and a clear forecast for Sunday, the Giants passing game could be in for big things.
The Falcons rush defense is middle of the pack, ranking 15th in DVOA. The Giants running game will benefit from the return of Danny Ware, who will step into the third down/shotgun back role he was slated for at the beginning of the year. One of the more interesting stories this week was about how Brandon Jacobs was forced into the third down/shotgun back role in Ware's stead because his pass blocking is so superior to Bradshaw's. But in this role, he ran lots of plays - draws, sweeps - that didn't cater to his strengths. Hopefully, the return of Ware gives us a legitimate upgrade in those situations.
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Prediction: On the heels of four awful performances followed by one half-decent performance, it's anybody's guess how the Giants will play on. Fortunately, they are playing an underwhelming opponent whose best player (Turner) is injured. There are four teams in the NFC right now with 5-4 records: the Giants, Falcons, Eagles, and Packers. I don't know exactly where they rank among these teams, but I will venture to guess that they're at least better than the Falcons. Giants 23 - Falcons 17.
