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Was Race a Strong Factor in Clear Clinton Win in Pennsylvania?
I blogged on this issue yesterday -- and a GOP leader's claim that John McCain will have a big edge on Obama because of the rae-based vote in November. It drew a wide and varied response from readers. Some claimed that Clinton suffered from gender bias, or pointed out that Obama was getting 85% of the black vote. Others objected to bringing up this issue at all, or praised me for doing so.
Long before that, I had suggested that many understate the number of older Democrats who are (still) racist and who would tip many contests to Clinton. But I closed yesterday's post by saying that if Obama won or came close in Pennsylvania that might put the issue to rest.
Didn't happen. And the exit polls show, again, that one in four Clinton voters claim they would not vote for Obama in November -- for whatever reason. And she got 70% of the white, blue-collar vote in most regions, including the area of central Pennsylvania where I spent a lot of time growing up and heard many a racist remark.
Here's the money quote from a New York Times analysis of the exit polls: "Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all."
And once again, the old phenomenon of exit polls proven wrong, because people with racist views do not tell pollsters the truth on election day, again reared its head. The final exit polls today indicated only a 4% Clinton win. Now it looks like 10%. That difference is largely the racial vote, I'd guess. I call them the true "late deciders" -- they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth.
Tim Russert reported tonight that the GOP in North Carolina is now going to play the race card against Obama in primary ads there, which can only help Clinton.
Anyway, I will leave it at that -- you guys and gals go at it, and thank you for that. As I've said before, I am just putting this all out there, not to suggest, at all, that Obama should not or can not be the nominee. Let's just say that I am very sensitive to the continuing problems of race and racial prejudice in society.
*
Greg Mitchell's new book is So Wrong for So Long: How the Press, the Pundits -- and the President -- Failed on Iraq. It is the first five-year history of the war, has been hailed by Bill Moyers, Glenn Greenwald, and Arianna Huffington, and features a preface by Bruce Springsteen.
Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary
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I agree. My landlords, staunch Democrats who are embarrassed that their sons are Republicans, have flat out said that if Obama is nominated, they will NOT vote for a N****r. They will vote Republican for the first time in their lives. They even looked up MY primary vote and told everyone how disappointed they are that I would support Obama (don't think it doesn't happen - they regularly have access to who votes for whom). They also have plans to file absentee ballots for the two youngest family members who said they will vote for Obama if he's nominated so that there will be no embarrassing record of any member of their family supporting anyone who is Black (since they are obviously aware that all voting records become fodder for town gossip). Voter fraud is less of an issue for them than voting for someone of color. And, this is in a Democratic stronghold in NJ. So much for democracy and the privacy of the voting booth.
I studied the CNN exit poll, looking for both racial and gender bias.
I did not see evidence of a gender bias insofar as there was comparable Clinton vote across all demographics (save for blacks, but they're excused).
There IS, as Mr. Mitchell points out, a huge racial bias -- blacks vote for Obama. No surprise. (Even amongst those blacks who say race did NOT matter to them. Riiiiight.)
This observation is a big "duh", but why do whites take a bigger hit for voting white than blacks for voting black?
I would note that it appeared blacks vote black to a much greater degree than women vote woman.
To get really silly about it, if you give BACK to Obama the whites who won't vote black, and take AWAY the blacks who would have voted Hillary if either she were black or Obama were white, and then, GIVE Hillary some points for all the men who would otherwise have voted for her if she were male.
Where would the final tally stand? Lord knows.
Of course it was. All those who voted for Obama because he's black and all those for voted for clinton because she's a woman need to have their voting right suspended for 10 years. If mccain wins it will be their fault.
They didn't vote for the better person, they voted to try to make history.
Well said.
In November, we can only hope that the stars will align and a majority of voters will pick the better person (and coincidentally make history).
I think it was. After Obama let slip he sees the average white person as a racist he lost a lot of votes. Obama's racism (learned at the feet of "rev" Wright).....has had a negative impact on his campaign.
stevela has lied again.
As a pulmonary technician at Bethesda Naval Hospital in 1965 Jeremiah Wright was part of the surgical team which removed President Lyndon Johnson's gall bladder. It would lead to the first of his three commendations from LBJ.
So, what have you done for the US of KKK in your miserable whitebread nonexistence?
While I am not so much in agreement w/ Greg Michelle, although I can understand the reasoning... I have been trying to understand why Obama wins most of the caucuses and not primaries?
To the best of my knowledge, he has won mostly in caucause states, but falls short in primaries except in a couple.... The polls have also been right w/ the caucauses as well, but can't be trusted w/ primaries anymore... In a way Geraldine might be right, when she said Obama has only been able to come thus far, because he is "black" - Anyway, these are just my thoughts, please I don't intend to offend anyone and I am very sorry if you find this post offensive - My bad....
I would think it is obvious why Barack wins in caucuses, while having more uneven results in primaries.
Barack is clearly the more liberal of the two candidates and the activists who show up to caucuses are more liberal and outraged over the Bush administration.
Some primaries have shown similar propensities among their voters, but the larger state, the more diverse the voting pool. Moreover, many of the voters have paid little attention until the last week and are judging on snippets in the media, maybe a debate and the TV ads. Hillary does better among folks who know very little but are well acquainted with her name and reputation.
Good points.
My guess is that caucuses reward more "evangelical" supporters. Younger too.
HuffPost's Pick
" It never troubles the sun that some of his rays fall wide and vain into ungrateful space, and only a small part on the reflecting planet. " --R.W. Emerson
Obama is trying real hard to reach out to those who don't feel much empathy for him. Though his overtures to the PA working class fell a little flat, I can see the sincere effort he made to connect with those voters, who on the surface are so unlike himself, but on the other hand, as Americans, they've got plenty in common with Obama in this election. Obama no doubt learned something, once again, from the bitter gaffe--that words do matter. As for racism, until we own up to our own racism, our own prejudices, we're fooling ourselves. At any rate, voters can respect Obama, or Clinton, but still prefer the other.
Obama will continue reaching out, and that he's gotten this far shows that he's breaking down the racial barrier more than we've seen in awhile. Obama has still been able to stay pretty positive through it all. Hillary is at her best when she smiles, when she turns on her good nature, her very good sense of humor, and she's smart, and yes, she does have experience that comes with her years of service. Just wish we could see more of her sunny side; the negative campaigning, she could have saved for McCain.
Huzzah.
Still, it seems to me that Hillary is taking more gender-related hits than Obama is taking race-related hits. Especially in the MSM, where racism is now a taboo, but woman-bashing is still good for ratings.
I dare say America seems more at ease with his blackness than her womanhood.
Is racial identification the same as racism? Is gender identification the same as sexism? I find myself thinking about that. Long time female viewers of Phil Donahue ( who was very sympathetic to their issues and concerns) immediately jumped ship when Oprah came along covering the same subjects. Why watch a surrogate woman when a real woman is available? The Clintons had all the Black votes till the very viable Obama came along. Now they have none. Similar principle at work. Most people wants to "see and relate to people who look like themselves". That's a global phenomena enveloping all of humanity. Obviously some people vote for people not like themselves, but is it automatically racism or sexism if they don't? We'd have to be able to look into the hearts of people to really know. But that's not possible, so despite all the obsessively over analytical punditry, who the hell really knows?
I really object to being called an older democrat who is "still racist" I am an older independent and I have NEVER been racist. It amazes me that peoples backgrounds are ignored and we wind up with people in office and people running for President who shouldn't be. Stop categorizing the general public, everyone is different and they are making the same mistake that the power elitists are making, we all fall into categories, I don't, do you? All three of these candidates have no business being up there to begin with, I wouldn't vote for any of them, voting for these three clowns would be a wasted vote and I am voting the constitution party. I don't think race enters into this at all, I would have voted for Alan Keyes if he hadn't dropped out, I would vote for Obama if he didn't have such a miserable background, Michele Obama has had race issues when whe was in college so I think accusing other people of being racist is not the way to go. Hillary is a joke, she is so being used, she will never win, that leaves McCain, now I am really scared. His background doesn't seem to be an issue but he has a lot of baggage too, that will come out during the course of events. These three losers should be removed and the people should pick who should run in the primaries, not the biased bogus congress and senate.
Mitchell wrote, "they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth." But isn't it likely that Clinton won because of sexism in the voting booth? Doesn't the evidence suggest that many older Democratic women are voting for Clinton not so much on issues, values, or competence... but on blind gender identity. I'd guess that Clinton's vote total was inflated by pro-woman bigotry, moreso than anti-Black bigotry.
Stuart's "Random Thoughts" blog
I agree, and would add it was probably equal amounts of both sexism and race based fear that gave Hillary PA. Obama was against all the odds and would have shown better if the base emotions of PA's down trodden populace weren't in play. We are so doomed.
Sure you would.
Good lord, calm down. It's not like anyone has said that every older Democrat is "still racist" (I'd have removed the word "still" - it's not like it could accurately be said that they all were once racist in the first place). If the generalization doesn't apply to you, well, then, it doesn't apply.
Although I have to admit I'm a bit confused about someone who would vote for Alan Keyes or for Obama. Since the two are 180 degree opposites politically, it sounds more like just throwing out a couple of names than a serious consideration of their individual merits.
In McCain's auto-bio, he freely admits that his father and grandfather were racists, but passes it off as just being part of life in that era. Don't tell me growing up in that racist household and then getting his ass kicked by little brown men for several years hasn't left a few scars.
The more we get it out there (race) the less it will mean. Senator Obama has opened the race abscess and as time goes by this ignorance will pass and we will heal.
I agree that we should talk about race until there is nothing left to say. We've only begun, and as David Sirota said, bigots show themselves "in the privacy of the voting booth." We can't overcome 150+ years of racism with one election.
Good points both above.
Same for misogyny.
I bet there are more men who won't vote for Hillary than whites who won't vote for Obama.
Today we've got McSAME arguing that the response to gender pay discrimination ought to be more job training for women. So they can get 77 cents on the dollar.... one or two rungs higher up. Sheesh.
NO, NOT RACE! This candidate does not appeal to the BASE of the Democratic Party because he is an elitist! AND HERE MORE PROOF! Barack Obama is FUNDAMENTALLY INSECURE and he made another huge mistake last night when he SPOKE candidly to someone he knew in the audience!
"I admire him because I've always known this guy was going to get somewhere because he MARRIED UP just like I MARRIED UP!"
This is a strunning statement considering he knows he is having trouble with the base! And among others, I wonder what the poor, disenfranchised, struggling single and oppressed minority mothers thought about that comment?! Among many other but minority women and mothers who don't have and have NEVER had the privilege, the time or the education to do more than struggle daily for SURVIVAL in this country. Does that mean these women are "less than" his wife or the rest of the country? This is psychologically disturbing and MUCH like we have in the WHITE HOUSE right NOW - making decisions that reflect his ignorance, his disdain and his arrogence as it relates to not only the people of this country but the third world countries!
Lavisiter, The person he was talking to in the audience was John Cougar Mellencamp, the rock and roll singer. Your post reminds me of a favorite hobby-horse of mine and get ready to be insulted because i suppose you should be. You are a tonal illiterate. Typing is not writing. Oh, you are able to read words and know what probably 10,000 individual words mean, but a lot of stuff goes right over your head. Obama's comment, for instance. How could any thinking person construe his comment as an insult to any other woman? Yikes.
Let me parse it for you. When he says he, "married up", it has nothing to do with money or education. It is about character. He means his wife is a better person than he is. It is a complement to his wife.
I'm betting you are really grateful to Clinton for giving you a reason to believe that, "Obama is predudiced against you!" Before it was just that you would never vote for a person of color in a million years. Now you have right on your side. Am sure irony goes right over your head. I am really rather ashamed of myself because i am sure you can not help it. (This IS an insult.)
Tulka2..A debt of gratitude for exposing the "Miseducation" of Levister. But as a point of clarification, Obama was referring to the wife of the Mayor of Evansville. When one seeks to castigate and indict a person of being "arrogantly ignorant", from an Ill-informed, or shall I a say, a premise flawed and corrupted by their own ignorance, it does not take a great deal of analysis to determine how we find ourselves in this current mess.
What is truly "psychologically disturbing" is the extrapolation of your intellectually inelegant thesis as Obama's disdain for those of less fortunate circumstance. Again, were Levister to invest a few minutes at self -education, it might become abundantly clear that the majority of Obama's post-education years have been in service to those very individuals and groups who are poor, deprived, oppressed, and disenfranchised.
If you're going to attempt to make rational decisions in an irrational world,very large bowl of bran fiber, followed by a colonic, concluding with bowl of rationality. Bon Appetit
And you're totally gullable and uninformed if you believe that!
Oh please!! Is it going to be that Obama cannot even make a joke without there being some underlying. If anything, he was talking about himself. Please stop the constant narrow thinking. Should Obama be afraid to be himself. I do not think that it is fair that we ask him to watch everything that he says or thinks because someone, like you Lavister, will misinterpret what he said and then go around and tell everybody what a horrible person he is just because of something you thought that you heard. That is not fair to him, nor would it be fair to you if someone were doing that to you.
I guess that you would be equally disturbed that Senator McCain married up? To a working man it is hard to imagine owning 8 homes on a senate salary, military pension, and royalties from book(s).
Why are people bringing up race in the PA election? She was expected to win by a wider margin than this, so what is everyone surprised by? I'm surprised that she didn't beat him by a greater margin. He's won by huge margins in other areas, that were expected to be closer, so are those states sexist? Why is it inconceivable to believe that voters want Hillary Clinton to win also?
the only reason people dont like obama is because of race. he is young, charasmatic, good-looking, smart, and a running a brilliant campaign. a lot of the trivial stuff people vote for. he has changed american politics. but he is black. too much for american 50+ crowd. pity
90% of the black vote went to Obama. Race does play a big part in this election. And your right, it is a pity.
Massive overgeneralization.
Ahh, I see. Racism - BAD. Ageism - AOK!
How long ago did you grow up in Pa.? My decisions to back Hillary have nothing to do with race!!!As I look around my neighborhood, I see many homes that sport white/black families & their syblings. Maybe this conversion is God's plan to end racism in America.I don't support Obama because of his shadyraisers & the still unknown. He claims to be above politics, but uses the same when it's to his advantage.He appears to get "stuck" when presented with a question that he actually doen't want to answer. But what do I know...I'm just an old, uneducated, blewcollar, just above poverty -level Clintonite.
Hey Madmaggie,
Ya think ole Hillary is vetted?
Check-out , if you dare, just some of what the rethugs have in mind for her in the fall Now Playing on UTUBE:
Hillary Clinton;The Movie
Or that 12 Part Series; Bill & Hillary Clinton: Their Secret Lives
Vetted? I think not
What exactly are his shadyraisers. And please give facts and not just repeat someone's talking points.
90% Black vote for Obama. Overwhelming female vote for Clinton. And I'm sure McCain will get the elderly vote. Racism, sexism, and ageism are all in play this election cycle. What's the answer? I have no idea. We'll just have to see how it all washes out. But more women, and whites crossed over to Obama then Blacks did for Clinton. I'm Black and understand the emotional connection, but a 90% total shows no objectivity at all.
I think that racial bias is a bit too simplistic an answer to explain Obama's overwhelming support among African Americans. Keep in mind that blacks have had no problem with supporting white Democrats for decades. Also remember that blacks favored Clinton over Obama at the outset of the primaries.
Look, most politically oriented blacks are all too familiar with the "dog whistle" politics employed by the Clintons and were disgusted (you not withstanding). Also, Obama is not just black. Compared to the other candidates, he is uniquely in tune with popular culture (brushing dirt off his shoulder during his speech after the last debate is a prime example) and doesn't appear contrived when speaking to or associating with blacks (have you seen Hillary at a black church, sheesh!).
It is a logical fallacy (and personally offensive) to posit that because Obama enjoys 90% support among blacks, blacks have no objectivity when choosing between Clinton and Obama.
A 90% Black vote for Obama definitely shows racial bias since there really is no difference on the major issues between the candidates. I know this from the debates and discussions in my barbershop and neighborhood. Clinton supporters are given a lot of grief, and put under pressure to "support the brother". A 60-40, or even a 70-30 split of the Black vote in Obama's favor would have shown me a more issues, less racially based preference. The Clintons aren't klan members and would've had all those Black votes if Obama wasn't running. There are certainly legitimate style and personality differences between Obama and Clinton, but 92% worth? Come on.
Blacks have historically voted in high numbers for White Democratic nominees because they had no ability to leverage their vote since Republicans since Lincoln haven't given a damn about Black people or our votes. We were given a choice of either voting Democrat or sitting out the election.
Where were you and what was you saying when President Clinton won 90+ percent of the
Black vote in two elections? Numbers can be slanted to prove almost any point that one choose.
Objectivity is an individual pursuit. If everybody was so concerned about the Black vote, why do I not see more attention paid to the voting irregularities that crop up in Black voting districts on every election? All the words that have been vomited out here to parse every aspect of what happened in Penna. yesterday, not one on the voting irregularities.
OBAMA"S AMMUNITION
Regarding the Bosnia lie, Hillary said she made a mistake because it was late and she was tired.
Tim Russert brought up a clip showing her telling the same lie at 3:00 in the afternoon.
Obama has to get tough, or Hillary will win. Then McCain will get tough and beat Hillary.
Obama"s new theme should be:
"IF SHE"LL LIE TO THE PEOPLE AT 3:00 P.M.,
SHOULD SHE BE ANSWERING THE WHITE HOUSE PHONE AT 3:00 A.M."
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Posted April 22, 2008 | 11:39 PM (EST)