Was Race a Strong Factor in Clear Clinton Win in Pennsylvania?

I blogged on this issue yesterday -- and a GOP leader's claim that John McCain will have a big edge on Obama because of the rae-based vote in November. It drew a wide and varied response from readers. Some claimed that Clinton suffered from gender bias, or pointed out that Obama was getting 85% of the black vote. Others objected to bringing up this issue at all, or praised me for doing so.

Long before that, I had suggested that many understate the number of older Democrats who are (still) racist and who would tip many contests to Clinton. But I closed yesterday's post by saying that if Obama won or came close in Pennsylvania that might put the issue to rest.

Didn't happen. And the exit polls show, again, that one in four Clinton voters claim they would not vote for Obama in November -- for whatever reason. And she got 70% of the white, blue-collar vote in most regions, including the area of central Pennsylvania where I spent a lot of time growing up and heard many a racist remark.

Here's the money quote from a New York Times analysis of the exit polls: "Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all."

And once again, the old phenomenon of exit polls proven wrong, because people with racist views do not tell pollsters the truth on election day, again reared its head. The final exit polls today indicated only a 4% Clinton win. Now it looks like 10%. That difference is largely the racial vote, I'd guess. I call them the true "late deciders" -- they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth.

Tim Russert reported tonight that the GOP in North Carolina is now going to play the race card against Obama in primary ads there, which can only help Clinton.

Anyway, I will leave it at that -- you guys and gals go at it, and thank you for that. As I've said before, I am just putting this all out there, not to suggest, at all, that Obama should not or can not be the nominee. Let's just say that I am very sensitive to the continuing problems of race and racial prejudice in society.
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Greg Mitchell's new book is So Wrong for So Long: How the Press, the Pundits -- and the President -- Failed on Iraq. It is the first five-year history of the war, has been hailed by Bill Moyers, Glenn Greenwald, and Arianna Huffington, and features a preface by Bruce Springsteen.

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary

Comments

[vassiewb]

For MagestierLudi: Blacks did not begin in the primary supporting Obama--they had their minds changed by Obama's opponent's appeal to and use of the race card, so perhaps their voting for Obama is purely defensive--against already historically established, lived in, and continuing racism (whether openly admitted or not) of whites toward blacks. Merely looking at the choice of candidate to support by race does not tell the whole story. Let's face it: the history of racism lies with whites, not blacks. I would hardly equate the two and think myself correctly informed, anti racist or intelligent.

[MA4HRC]

Well what are black people that vote for Senator Clinton called? Are we racist too? Why does that have to be the first knee-jerk reaction? Why can't it be that people don't think that he's the better candidate? Since I'm black, I assume that rules out racism on my part. Am I now Anti-Male since I voted for her? Well, I voted for men in the past, so now what?

[mlambert890]

Great great post... As a white male who supports Obama, I somehow see completely eye to eye with you even though you are black and support HRC.

I think it's unfortunate that the progressive community, especially here on HP, is doing a HUGE service to the Republican party by dragging this contest down deep into the gutter.

There IS a possibility that some people really ARE just voting for who they like! Whoever that happens to be and whether or not that person shares their racial heritage or gender!

The mean-spirited divisiveness of some of these blogs seems to have a lot more in common with the hate speech that the right is always being accused of trading in.

[mgw]

"..they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth," that's what is wrong with this blog. An assumption that those who didn't vote for Obama are bigots. What's wrong with you? This is so similar to Obama's bitter remark -- it makes no sense. Some people are just not voting for Obama, because regardless of his race, they don't think he is ready; and better yet, they think Hillary Clinton, regardless of her race, is the better candidate.

I suspect people are lying about there support for Obama to prevent being called a bigot -- so, yes, they do their talking in the booth, but for Christ sake, not because they are bigots! That's quite a heavy charge. And as a black person who absolutely does not support Obama, I don't know what category that puts me in. A bigot wanna be?

[MA4HRC]

Amen. This is why I have a problem supporting Senator Obama. I don't like assasinating the Clinton's or their supporter's character as racist if they don't vote for Senator Obama. That's just a tactic to scare people, mostly white, into not being honest about their feelings. Who wants to be labled a racist? There are some people who will not support him because he is black and some who will not support her because she's a woman, but as this election has shown, those people are overwhelmingly in the minority. I think the people supporting her are more realist rather than racist.

[2351]

"There are some people who will not support him because he is black ". MA4HRC-This is all the other bloggers were saying, just what you said....Th­ere are people who hide their bigotry in the privacy of the booth. Let's be real. For some reason, you were offended by a true statement and somehow made this statement out to be about you. It wasn't about you, it was dialogue about racism and why some people vote the way that they do.

[elusiveyo]

was wondering how long it was gonna take to use racism as a fact for Obama's pa loss, and we saw it foreshadowed last week when Rachel maddow on msnbc brought up the specter of the bradley effect next week in philly, pitiful, will Obama folks resort to anything to win this thing? use racism when u need a crutch to explain a loss (NH, PA), insinuate pres clinton is racist when u win SC, you people are pitiful, shameless and every bit as bad as any one who still is caught in the negative web of racism

[08timefortruth]

"every bit as bad as any one who still is caught in the negative web of racism" you act like that web does not exist. Everyone runs around publically saying how race is not an issue but I guarantee you it is....I am a white person and I support Obama and I could not tell you how many ignorant comments I have heard such as "can you imagine what will happen to this country if a black man is elected president'? or "I've never voted Republican but I just can't see a woman or a black guy as president" or how about "I aint voting for no hoe and I aint voting for no bro"....th­ose are all comments I overheard yesterday in a hospital waiting room in a town of about 3500 and is just a small example of the racism and sexism that still exist. Everyone trys to come up with a politically correct reason for not voting for Obama but the bottom line is he was right when he made the bitter comment. There has always been a pecking order in this country and the minorities are always on the bottom rung because who else does the poor white person have to blame for their lack of success...­.......get over it and admit what every white person knows already

[elusiveyo]

what about that sentence implies that racism isnt around still, it implies that people using it on both sides are ignorant manipulative people, much like you for twisting my words

[bowseat93]

But it's not just the Obama folks who should be concerned. If PA voters (or others) chose a white woman over a black man, what makes Clinton folks so sure they won't bail when given the opportunity to vote for a white man? If there is a Bradley effect, it probably applies equally to exit polls. She may have been picked for now, only to be dumped later.

[rachaelisacancer]

Once again -

70% of whites vote for Clinton because they're racist.

92% of blacks vote for Obama because they're "just picking the candidate they think is best."

It didn't take long enough.

[jojojo]

That's like Nora Ephron saying that white men would decide PA based on whether their racism or their sexism was stronger. Actually it turns out that white women voted for HRC even more strongly than white men, so I guess they're even more sexist and racist than white men, right?

And of course all people have as part of their make-up the tendency to vote for people who are like them.

[Ericjack]

Please... the race card was played by Gov. Ed Rendell when he said that PA voters wouldn't vote for a black person. Yes. the Governor of PA set the tone, so that bigots could feel it was okay to vote along racial lines. Case in point: Hillary won the catholic vote and gun vote - Yet, here's Obama who at least has said he attended church. If both Hillary and Obama are pro-choice wouldn't the Catholic vote be somewhat even. Re: guns- Obama is endorsed by Gun Association because of his views on 2nd Amendment, where as Hillary opposed.

Many PA voters voted against there best interests, and race was the culprit.

[americanwomaninpa]

He said Some Pa. voters were not ready to vote for a black man. He is right. But it is the same way in almost every state. This isn't news to anyone. We still have a way to go.

[superlive]

I'm positive that Obama won the BLACK MEN WITH GUNS vote. Of course, that will be spun by the GOP as "Obama accepts votes from Gang Members!"

Both HRC and BO got an "F" grade from the NRA.

[lowry99]

my favorite:

the Obamans accuse the Clintons of playing the race card

all of a sudden 90% of blacks start voting for Obama

follow the votes

[jojojo]

Nora Ephron said PA would be decided by white guys, whom she said were either racist or sexist--or both---and that it would be decided by which of those prejudices was stronger.

Since white men went for HRC, but white women--especially those over 50-- went even more strongly for HRC, I guess that means that in PA, over-50 white women are even more racist and sexist then white men.

[rachaelisacancer]

92% of African Americans voted for Obama. Seems they're the force to be reckoned with as far as racism in this election goes.

[jojojo]

Read more carefully.

I based my premise on the previous premise made by Ephron.

Maybe it's sexist, racist, post-menopausal white women who determined the PA outcome, and not racist, sexist white men, as Ephron says.

Are all those women mad at Carl Bernstein, as Nora is? Maybe that's the answer

[jojojo]

Read more carefully. I simply base my premise on the sexist, racist Ephron premise that PA would be decided by white men based on whether their racism or sexism was stronger.

Ephron seems to be the sexist.

Is she still THAT mad at Carl Bernstein?

[CraigB]

The problem for us democrats is that we started with a fine field of candidates and have settled for the two with the most serious, possibly fatal, electability issues. In our zeal to have a history making nominee and president we have gambled away the house before considering the odds.

[jeff3036]

David Duke Wannabes

Exit polling of Ohio voters showed that 1 in 5 voters said race was a factor, and these wonderful folks broke 4 to 1 for Hillary.
In it’s twin-evil cousin, PA, hate again raised it’s ugly head with 17% of voters saying race was a factor, and they voted 74% against the black guy.
Nice!
Living in the shadow of ground zero I’m remained every day of the ramifications of hate and ignorance running amuck (even when it’s hidden in the dark soul)

It’s time to eradicate hated in this country at the ballot box and lift this country out of it’s shroud of ignorance.

[mlambert890]

Look at your alarmist, hyperbolic, prejudicial rhetoric! "David Duke Wannabees"­.... Ohio and PA the "twin *evil* cousins"..­. Broad assumption that a poll that asks "was race a factor in your vote?" isnt somehow rigged or fabricated (you think real racists REALLY stop for a poll taker and say "DAMN RIGHT IM RACIST!" maybe they add "AND I MURDER PEOPLE TOO!" Come on... Wake up already. "Living in the shadow of ground zero", shouldnt you be a bit more sophisticated than this?

And talking about "lifting the country out of its shroud of ignorance" and "eradicating hate" while calling two WHOLE STATES "evil"? Oh the irony!

[2351]

The people in the poll who admitted that race was an issue for them are only a percentage of the people. Most people who felt that way would not admit it and used some other reason. That is a fact.

[rachaelisacancer]

70% of whites voted for Clinton, so they're racist.

92% of blacks voted for Obama, so they're just voting for the candidate they think is best.

How does that add up? You can cite the "uneducated" voting for Hillary all you want, but the fact is, we just aint all that stoopid.

You want to call the whites racist because 70% voted for Hillary and agree with her policies, and yet we're all supposed to look at the millions of black Obama supporters who can't even name a single one of his policies, and yet voted for him, and say that it all makes since because they're "educated" so surely they must not be making a racist vote?

Seriously, get over yourselves.

[BubbaC33]

Race isn't the issue, no one can name a policy initiative Obama has proposed. He seems to make a point of avoiding anything of substance or specific.

[2351]

We are talking about people who polled and said that race was an issue for them and the people polled who said that some other reason was why they would not vote for a certain candidate, when really race was the true issue, they just would not admit it.

[BinBaldwin]

Obama getting 92% of the black vote ..Its not as if he is running against David Duke. The Clintons have been very supportive of the black community for decades. Blacks Worshipped the Clintons until Obama . Obama and Hillary as as close on the issues as any 2 politicians can be. So why not a more equal share in the black vote? Racism.

[era996]

Bin, you are missing the point. 92% of blacks voting for Obama is Black Pride. Whites voting for Hillary is Racism. Get it right

[superlive]

Since 1868 Black voters have historically voted for WHITE presidential candidates 100% of the time. That there are Whites who will NEVER send a Black man to the WHITE HOUSE is indisputable and 13% of Hillary's voters openly claimed to be that kind of Whitey.

[illogic]

That's very funny. I'm sure you don't even realize how patronizing you sound. Black people don't owe the Clintons anything. Our support helped put Bill into office. As soon as it became expedient, the Clintons appealed to racists through dog whistle politics.

How many black, potential Clinton supporters stayed home?

What do you think the chances are that a Clinton surrogate would've said any black politician was successful because of his race during the '92 election?

92% of blacks got the message the Clintons themselves put out there.

[in4success]

not race -- cheating!

[atp2007]

CNN also said last night that Hillay won 75% of the vote of those who said that race was a very important factor in their vote. Pennsylvanians in the rural areas may be racist but they're proud of it. Early in this campaign I had decided to support Edwards because I had rulled out the other candidates because of factors that I felt made them unelectable. Richardson could not win in a year when immigration was a hot issue, Clinton had all the scandals to answer for (which Obama has not even said a word about yet during the campaign), Biden and Dodd looked too much like whomever would be the inevitable Republican nominee. I liked Obama but was afraid that the subrosa racist factor would make him unelectable (I could hear the Republican cover: "Of course, he's a credit to his RACE, but you can vote against him because of (fill in the blank) and not feel guilty"). I wasn't expecting that another Democrat would initiate that tactic in the primaries. The Demos have dug them selves a huge hole, maybe the party needs to destroy itself totally before a true Progessive Party can rise from it's ashes. Time for Obama to go back to speaking directly to the voters and not focus on answering Hillary's red herrings.

[DallasMike]

Why is it that the only people that bring up race in this campaign are the liberals?

[Mark01]

Are you f.... kidding me???

[PhDiva]

Are you joking? Since when is Rush Limbaugh a liberal? Limbaugh brings it up every single day! He calls Barack Obama "Barack the Magic Negro" every day, and he compared him to a monkey. The conservative media always brings up race.

[DallasMike]

PhDiva,

I believe the LA Times were the 1st to coin the phrase "Barack the Magic Negro"
And the LA times is as Liberal as it gets.
he is just repeating what they said.
He did not compare him to a monkey( quit listening to Air America)
A listener compared him to Courious George and Rush said he did not know that George was a monkey.
I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to people until proven otherwise.
Do you?

[willygoo46]

Yeah Greg - race was a factor. Look at what Obama spent - millions! Look at the time he put in - weeks. All this effort to get defeated by over 10% and 208,000 votes. Look at the county map of pennsylvania. Clinton destroyed him in virtulaly every county by 20 - 80% margins. He only won in three urban counties, where he won 90% of the black vote. That's the race factor. Without his 90% balck support he would have lost by 30%.
The party is over for Obama. People now realize that Clinton is a far superior candidate. His message is empty and when you think about it he really doesn't have the experience. Obama was a fraud and a charlatan. Now add to that LOSER! It is time to vote smart and vote Clinton

[Ericjack]

Please what is this "more" experience that Hillary has? Then by your logic, if you say she's been in the Senate longer - WHY hasn't she fought or created these Solutions she now touts? C'mon she was in the US Senate at least 4 years before Obama...
Where is her record on these solutions? She was 1st lady and surely had some political pull.

[bobajob]

I listened to C-Span on radio last night. It was instructive, peppered with comments like ," He's a Moslem, yeah?" and "He comes from Nigeria. He's not American". These were all old people, baby-boomer types.

Guys and gals, we might have to wait until the self-reverential baby-boomers have kicked the bucket before we get rid of this old-fashioned racism and get civilized behavior in the polls. I'm quick to add that, thank heaven, the majority of older people are not ignorant and crass, just a tad too many.

[Futuristic]

bobajob, I agree with you 100%. While most White Americans do not exhibit racism towards Obama, there still remains a good percentage of die-hard racist that made the difference in the Pennsylvania primary. Plus, added to that number is the contengency of racist Republican White voters who switch parties just to vote for Hillary. Against that backdrop it is amazing that Obama will still win the nomination of his party, and go on to prove (to the dismay of the racist) he is an excellent president. I regard him as the Tiger Woods of politics because Tiger faced the same kind of prejudice upon winning his first Masters.

[BarryChamplain]

I'm an Early Boomer, and I don't have any close friends in my "demo", who think like that. Yeah I know, we're all exceptions­...

It may interest you to know that when I was your age (you young whippersnapper, get off my lawn!), there was indeed a small, SMALL group of our demographic contemporaries, who were "the jocks", "the Jesus freaks", "the ROTC types"... and we all thought they were assholes. Had we laughed a little less at them, we might have noticed that they were slowly taking over society, by making alliances with each other, and remarketing themselves as "the mainstream".

But overall, your take on my Boomer generation is really effing retarded. Not to mention bigoted.

[DennyCrane]

People keep asking how Obama lost despite outspending Hillary 3-1. Well it's pretty simple. You can have a ton of money and run nonstop campaign ads on every channel, but you're never going to change the mind of a racist. 16% of white voters admitted that Obama's race mattered. The real number is higher since a lot of people won't admit they factor in race. The pattern that's emerged makes sense though. Working class whites are more likely to have issues with blacks for the same reason Hispanics do. They see them as economic rivals and there's a lot of anger and resentment over things like affirmative action. Older whites aren't as used to living in a multi-ethnic culture as younger whites are. The younger generations have worked with and gone to school with non-whites and don't have the hangups that older Americans do. If Obama were white, he would be the nominee know. Race seems to trump gender. The racists will take the white woman over the black man. But in the general, it'll go to McCain. White male wins every time.

[StephenDedalus82]

Without 90% black support, Obama would have been knocked out of this race by now. There's nothing wrong with getting 90% of the black vote, except that in the general election those people are going to vote Democratic anyway. We should be concerned about the hispanic american vote, who could easily switch to John McCain over Obama, but would definitely support Clinton. This is what worries me. Obama's numbers are inflated because his entire race is voting for him. Unfortunately that demographic doesn't decide things in the general election.