Was Race a Strong Factor in Clear Clinton Win in Pennsylvania?

I blogged on this issue yesterday -- and a GOP leader's claim that John McCain will have a big edge on Obama because of the rae-based vote in November. It drew a wide and varied response from readers. Some claimed that Clinton suffered from gender bias, or pointed out that Obama was getting 85% of the black vote. Others objected to bringing up this issue at all, or praised me for doing so.

Long before that, I had suggested that many understate the number of older Democrats who are (still) racist and who would tip many contests to Clinton. But I closed yesterday's post by saying that if Obama won or came close in Pennsylvania that might put the issue to rest.

Didn't happen. And the exit polls show, again, that one in four Clinton voters claim they would not vote for Obama in November -- for whatever reason. And she got 70% of the white, blue-collar vote in most regions, including the area of central Pennsylvania where I spent a lot of time growing up and heard many a racist remark.

Here's the money quote from a New York Times analysis of the exit polls: "Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all."

And once again, the old phenomenon of exit polls proven wrong, because people with racist views do not tell pollsters the truth on election day, again reared its head. The final exit polls today indicated only a 4% Clinton win. Now it looks like 10%. That difference is largely the racial vote, I'd guess. I call them the true "late deciders" -- they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth.

Tim Russert reported tonight that the GOP in North Carolina is now going to play the race card against Obama in primary ads there, which can only help Clinton.

Anyway, I will leave it at that -- you guys and gals go at it, and thank you for that. As I've said before, I am just putting this all out there, not to suggest, at all, that Obama should not or can not be the nominee. Let's just say that I am very sensitive to the continuing problems of race and racial prejudice in society.
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Greg Mitchell's new book is So Wrong for So Long: How the Press, the Pundits -- and the President -- Failed on Iraq. It is the first five-year history of the war, has been hailed by Bill Moyers, Glenn Greenwald, and Arianna Huffington, and features a preface by Bruce Springsteen.

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary

Comments

[elad065]

92%of blacks voted for barrack 90% fo blacks voted for bill clinton twice.
the argument that 90% of black's are racist is a little silly. what's u are seeing is the kennedy effect
the catholic vote went for kennedy they voted for there own they wanted to see a catholic in the white house
the question is white middle america will be faced{ if obama wins} with looking in the mirror.
will they the party like what they see?
now what if the table was turn and the republican nominated an african american ?
would the black vote go 90% for that person? ie 2006 ohio governers race.
steele in dc? let's look at the polling for thoose races and see what we learn huh?

[kenyaw]

Good point. No one ever considers that fact, when they suggest that all black people are blindly supporting Senator Obama. History shows that black people dont just support ANY and EVERY black candidate. Your example of the republican candidates that have been black, was right on target.
But I am done justifing why I support Obama, I am grown and it is my intelligent choice to make. He connects with people of all backgrounds.

[jac66]

There were numbeous reports about the voting machines in African American districts were not working and no paper ballots were available. There was also a lot of reports that the people who switched to democrat were not provided provisional ballots when their names had not made it on the list. Could the majority of these have been white men?

[frustratedinohio]

The real question is, Can a black man lose the presidential nomination and can it be attributed to anything other than race by him and his followers? I think the answer is no and that is a shame, because it will keep other blacks out of the race. Articles like this only encourage racial paranoia.

It's not race. I support Hillary because I really like her and I know she can fix this mess. That may come as a surprise to people at this site, but there are milions of us out there who don't see her as evil.

Obama has been arrogant. He has people around him with anti-american leanings and most of all he is inexperienced, not to mention he is un-vetted. Everyone has baggage and I'm not going to vote for someone until I know what it is and how bad it is. He's been on the scene for 3 minutes. Believe me, we don't know who he is. How people seem to follow him blindly makes me distrust him even more. I wish he would have waited a few years and given us a chance to get to know him.

[kenyaw]

That was silly. There is no one around him with anti American leanings. His pastor was criticizing government domestic and foreign policies. The person, who sits on the same Woods Foundation board as him, was wrong in his approach of protesting the war back in the 60's. Nevertheless, so were many other rich white kids back in the 60’s and 70’s. Again, they were speaking and protesting against governmental policy. Not America and her people.
By the way the board member "weathermen" guy's father former Chairman and CEO of Commonwealth Edison, has a department named after him at Northwestern University. The Commonwealth Edison’s revenue is at 15 billion annually. William Ayers is an educator and urban social justice expert in Illinois. Ayers has worked with the Mayors office to shape Chicago's now nationally renowned school reform program. Ayers is not someone that politicians and community leaders in Illinois run from when he enters a room.

[mlambert890]

Yeah... they were BOMBING things and KILLING people... Not "speaking out"

That said, the nature of the short memories of Americans (and general anti-American leanings of the left) has made Ayers an honored citizen rather than vilified him, so I don't blame Obama AT ALL for having some association and I certainly don't take it as some kind of "guilt by association thing" It has no impact one way or the other on my personal support for Obama...

That said, none of this changes that other guys main argument..­.. He supports HRC because HE LIKES HER... Challenge that all you want, but it DOES NOT make him a "racist" and THAT is the point

[Ericjack]

Please - what is this "more" experience that Hillary has? Yes, she was in the US Senate longer then Obama why hasn't she fought or created the type of Solutions she advocates now? It's called Special Interest pandering! - simple!

Obama isn't vetted?! You are underlining some guilt by association: Please don't use the Clintons as a metric for this. The good bigots of PA voted against their interests in voting for Hillary. More more do you want to know about Obama? The shame is Bill / Hillary continue to have new allegations even as week speak. Columbia /NAFTA - please!

She claims Obama is disenfranchising MI & FL voters but according to her the primaries would have and were suppose to end on FEB 5th - which means she would have been the nominee and any primary after Feb 5th was just practice! C'mon ! lets be real!

Was Bill vetted in '92 as a small time Gov. from Arkansas without any Washington political clout. - no - They still aren't vetted! What ties, deals favors do they owe to other countries?!
Why - do you think that so many former and long time Clinton associates are not backing them (this should be a tale-tale sign) that something just ain't right.

I rather take arrogance over a lier. Are you telling my you wouldn't hire the person who is confident over a lier?

[margoharris]

She is a winner alright. For the repuglicans!

Go to UTube and see what they have in store for her.

Hillary Clinton: The Movie

Bill & Hillary Clinton: Their Secret Lives a well done 12 part series

Vetted? My ass.

[2351]

That is why we need a change. We don't need Bill and Hillary back in the White house for more scandals. Nobody wants to go through another impeachment because somebody lied.

[rmrd]

Gore and Kerry got 90% of the African-American vote.
Gore got the bulk of the African-American vote compared to his Democratic opponent Bill Bradley.
Majority Black Baltimore, Maryland elected a White mayor overwhelmingly.
Al Sharpton lost the Black vote in NYC.


Blacks are just racists

[jac66]

Blacks are not racists. The reason Obama doesn't have a lot of older white women voting for him is because Hillary is still in the picture. When she gets out the better it will be for Obama to beat McCain because the black women will vote for Obama too.

[xcrunner77]

You are all reading way too much into one state, Pennsylvania, as if it were a "typical" or "bellwether" state. It is neither. It is one of the most backward thinking states in the country. You wouldn't expect Obama to win there anymore than you would wring your hands over a Democrat's inability to win Idaho in the general.

Hillary had a 25 point lead. She blew 15 points of it. That is the real story. That is Obama momentum.

Show me ONE state where Obama has been leading by a large margin and Hillary has come in and reduced it by half, or even won the state. You can't.. There are no examples. The majority of Obama's wins have been in the double digits, even 2-to-1. The majority of Hillary's few wins have been less than 5%. With the exception of Ohio and PA. She has never beaten Obama 2-to-1. She has only twice won by double digits, and in PA, only barely.

Yes, America is racist. Yes, that is going to show up in a handful of states in stark relief, those so far being OH and PA. (She actually lost TX, remember?) Most of the other 48 present a far different picture. Letting these two states dictate the story is letting the tail wag the dog.

[FranksMusings]

Unelectability Is Just an Elusion for Racism

Senator Clinton is ducking the issue that probably won her the ten-percen­tage-point victory in the Pennsylvania primary election. Senator Obama’s supporters, God bless them, have chosen to disregard the hurdle of racism standing in the way of his path to victory over the Republican candidate for the Presidency. They are determined to use the 2008 election as a tool for bringing out the country’s higher principles. Unfortunately, we may not be ready and the stakes are too high to withstand another four or eight years of warfare and national financial ruin in exchange for fighting a losing general election campaign.

[lowry99]

that's funny, because if 90% of blacks weren't magically voting for Obama she would have won by a lot more.

[PAposter]

I find it ironic that no one thought it necessary to disect the demographics in this manner in previous elections. Anyone that doesn't think that race played a role in the outcome in Pennsylvania, is simply refusing to see the obvious. The places where Clinton won are very homogeneous, therefore the mindset hasn't changed in decades, but rather perpetuated. Clinton takes advantage of this single-thinking, tunnel vision lifestyle. People have a preconceived notion of differnt ethnicities, all they need is for an outsider to confirm their fears, and that's where Clinton comes in. Senator Barack Obama draws the most diverse crowds imaginable, he has never tried to turn a crowd against Clinton or point out anything about her aversion to "Jews". The polls point out the Catholic vote, I'd like to see how Clinton faired with the Jewish community. As a Pennsylvanian, I am ashamed of the mindset in this state. It is unfortunate that Clinton uses demagoguery to garner votes, this is the type of poisonous rhetoric that threatens our nation far more than any threat of terrorism.

[Richardini]

I have already commented on the racial prejudice which still exists in Pennsylvania but it is worth mentioning over and over again although it will not go away. I have never heard one of my fellow Pennsylvanians say they like Hilary. In fact, to most of those whom I know, her name is synonymous with bitch. However, they voted for her in order not to have the black Muslim in the White House. I say that because many are convinced by Fox News and Rush that Obama is really a muslim terrorist. Black on top of that. No way. They can just see him giving Jesse and Al Sharpton top jobs in the government and that they cannot take. You have to be real simple minded to fit in to these groups, but believe me, they exist. To them the words liberal and political correctness were diabolic inventions. Many would prefer to return to the good old days when men were men and women did all the daily drudgery. Daily Drudge, they read that like crazy.

[Jazzcomedian]

Was race a factor in the high percentage of blue collar Whites voting for Clinton? Of course. Was race a factor in 90% of the Blacks voting for Obama? Of course.

[NABNYC]

Nice try. This is the Scalia/Thomas argument of the delusional right-wing of the Supreme Court: race must be ignored in our society. Gender too. The problem is that women and minorities have been systematically excluded from equal opportunity in this country, that the exclusion has been justified and rationalized by a violent system of racism and sexism in which minorities and women are the daily victims of violence for which the official police system has historically provided no remedy. We end up in a society in which white men have all the power and money, and they select young white men as their successors. That means 30% of the population controls everything, and 70% gets nothing. We need to be honest in facing these problems, not just say "So, black people voted for Obama." That does not even things out or erase history.

The Cintons have revived an intense racism by their nasty campaign tactics. If the Democratic Party did counter-campaigning against the Clintons and denounced their racist tirades, much of the race issue in the votes would disappear. As for November, McCain will get few voters under 30 and will not get any anti-war votes, which would likely balance out any white males who would vote McCain solely based on race.

[Vapor]

Yes, the way to deal with our racist history is more racist policies. You should quit trying to educate white people about America's racist past most of which are well aware of and maybe move forward in the debate. Oh, never mind, I forgot that you were trying to guilt white people into agreeing with or ignoring every racist action taking by the government or private citizens.

[Jazzcomedian]

I agree totally with you that minorities and women have been seriously discriminated against in our society. As to who has the great claim to injustice, I don't know. But as a result race and gender are both in play in the election. Which is historic. I'm an African-American independent voter, and I've got to say a 90% Black vote for a Black candidate definitely shows racial bias since there really is no difference on the major issues between the candidates. I know this from the debates and discussions in my barbershop and neighborhood. Clinton supporters given a lot of grief, and put under pressure to "support the brother". The Clintons aren't klan members and would have all those Black votes if Obama wasn't running. A 60-40 split of the Black vote in Obama's favor would have shown me a more issues based preference similar to the White vote in this primary. Blacks have historically voted in high numbers for White Democratic nominees because they had no ability to leverage their vote since Republicans since Lincoln haven't given a damn about Black people or their votes. I've got to say it appears that even though the Blue collar Whites voted for Hillary, more White voters than Black were willing to look past race in their voting in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. I haven't drank the kool-aid for either candidate and I'm cool with either of them winning since they're both proposing the same solutions.

[Nommo]

Is race pretty much a factor in the entirety of this nation's history? Think of all the civilizations in history that have legislation based on "race". Some august company, huh?

[Americanium]

I have the ability to vote for a Presidential candidate for the first time this November. God willing.

At the rate things are going..I think I might better off putting my vote in a bottle and throw it out to sea.

[Kache]

If racism is what decides the GE, then let's find out. If that is who we are, we need to warn the world that that is who, and what, we are. If we the people are so racist that we can not elect a non-white, or so sexist that we can not elect a woman, then the world needs to know that about us.

[frustratedinohio]

We're more stupid than we are racist and sexist. Quick somebody warn the world. Oops, they already know.

[Kache]

At this point they strongly suspect it (after we re-elected bozo the mad clown). Put McDoodke in and we'll get rudely reminded that we have few strategic metals on our continent let alone a rapidly dwindling fuel supply. Like it or not, we are extremely vulnerable to a hostile world. But, hey, the Republicans could be right, if we kill enough pagans Jesus will come back and put all of the oil back in the ground for us - right?

[kellysmalltowngirl]

I posted a reply to this blog several days ago stating that Obama wouldn't win in my home county because of racism. Here are the results of Fayette County, PA. (Southwestern PA)

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?ElectionID=27

President of the United States
Democratic Primary

Candidate Votes Percent
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
6,167 21.1%
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)
23,057 78.9

My white male connections tell me this is due more to fear that Obama will take their guns than racism, a fear activated by Clinton's distrotion of Obama's commemts in SF.

This fear has been exploited in the past by other parties and other politicians.

This type of campaign advertising is based on behaviorist psychology.

It involves pairing a product (Obama) with a fear-producing stimulus ( the implication that he doesn't understand why you like to have guns, therefore, he will take them). Paired together enough times ( like every time you watch the news) the product will produce the fear, involuntarily.

Its why the dog salivates to the bell. Look it up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_conditioning

IN CLEVER HANDS, IT CAN BE USED ON ANYONE -- EVEN EDUCATED, INTELLIGENT PEOPLE


Please don't let this happen anymore

[RussnCA]

Acutally, the pairing was "bitterness" with causing these people to "cling" to their guns and religion.

It was more about a shallow observation than about fear.

[Kache]

People who are bitter and cling to their guns and religion are certainly not put off by someone saying it. Televangelists and the NRA say it everyday to the cheers of that crowd. They even cheered Annie Oakley for praising them for it.

[kellysmalltowngirl]

How many bitter Pensylvanians clinging to guns and religion do you know?

I'm betting none, because even bitter, gun-clinging, religion fanatics are human beings capable of being insulted and hurt.

I think you ought to check your stereotypes at the login.

[elad065]

anyone has the polling for the ohio governer's race between ted strickland and ken blackwell
the % of blacks the backed ken blackwell and the % of blacks the backed ted strickland?
i bet the would be very interesting!

[eridees]

I don't know what the %'s were but I'm from Ohio and live in Blackwell's hometown and he did horrible when it came to the black vote . One problem, I believe, is that in the early 80's he switched party affiliation from Dem to Rep and many blacks felt he turned his back on them and never forgave him. He also never did anything but further the Rep agenda which never gave a damn about their concerns . And lastly, it was a change election for Ohio also....we did not want another Republican Gov. By the way he is consider responsible for the balloting problems we had in the GE in 2004.

[HollywoodBill]

Anyone thinking that caucasians are the only group to practice racism needs to spend some time in the Southwestern states. Despite Bill Richardson's backing, Obama as the candidate is going to have a rough time winning Hispanic votes. Some unofficial estimates are that overwhelming majorities of Hispanic voters will vote for McCain before Obama and by huge margins.

And then there is the issue of drivers licenses for illegals, a position that the Obama cheerleading media tends to overlook and not publicize. That issue alone was one of the main reasons why Gray Davis was run out town on a rail. So does that make white Californians double racists because they won't back one of the major tenets of liberal dogma? And while we're at it, Obama wants to get rid of Don't Ask Don't Tell as well as the Defense of Marriage Act, neither issue which is going to win over those highly coveted Independent moderate voters.

Fortunately, political correctness ends when the voters walks into the voting booth. And freedom means just that. Everyone's vote counts just the same regardless of their beliefs.

[elad065]

the agument is not that 92% of blacks vote for barrack because 90% of blacks voted for bill clinton , kerry, cater.the question is the table has now turned on a lot of white demorcrats.
for if obama is the nominated where will the blue collar working class white vote go?
the mirror is being held up for a lot not all of white middle america. will u like what u see?

[superlive]

The more commercials Obama ran in PA, the more resentful of him the redneck element became. The idea that the mulatto son of an African goatherd might accomplish in one generation what they could not in 5 to 6 generations was simply too galling.

[Vapor]

I'm a supporter of Obama, but trash like this is what could really turn people against him.

[superlive]

I'm supporting Obama as a persecuted minority. I'm not supporting him to become President. He could have had me convinced if he'd stuck up for Jeremiah Wright, but he sold out to Whitey and now he's going to suffer the consequences.

Nobody loves a sellout, not even the buyer.