Was Race a Strong Factor in Clear Clinton Win in Pennsylvania?
I blogged on this issue yesterday -- and a GOP leader's claim that John McCain will have a big edge on Obama because of the rae-based vote in November. It drew a wide and varied response from readers. Some claimed that Clinton suffered from gender bias, or pointed out that Obama was getting 85% of the black vote. Others objected to bringing up this issue at all, or praised me for doing so.
Long before that, I had suggested that many understate the number of older Democrats who are (still) racist and who would tip many contests to Clinton. But I closed yesterday's post by saying that if Obama won or came close in Pennsylvania that might put the issue to rest.
Didn't happen. And the exit polls show, again, that one in four Clinton voters claim they would not vote for Obama in November -- for whatever reason. And she got 70% of the white, blue-collar vote in most regions, including the area of central Pennsylvania where I spent a lot of time growing up and heard many a racist remark.
Here's the money quote from a New York Times analysis of the exit polls: "Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all."
And once again, the old phenomenon of exit polls proven wrong, because people with racist views do not tell pollsters the truth on election day, again reared its head. The final exit polls today indicated only a 4% Clinton win. Now it looks like 10%. That difference is largely the racial vote, I'd guess. I call them the true "late deciders" -- they decide to show their bigotry in the privacy of the voting booth.
Tim Russert reported tonight that the GOP in North Carolina is now going to play the race card against Obama in primary ads there, which can only help Clinton.
Anyway, I will leave it at that -- you guys and gals go at it, and thank you for that. As I've said before, I am just putting this all out there, not to suggest, at all, that Obama should not or can not be the nominee. Let's just say that I am very sensitive to the continuing problems of race and racial prejudice in society.
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Greg Mitchell's new book is So Wrong for So Long: How the Press, the Pundits -- and the President -- Failed on Iraq. It is the first five-year history of the war, has been hailed by Bill Moyers, Glenn Greenwald, and Arianna Huffington, and features a preface by Bruce Springsteen.
Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary
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The 92% Black vote for Obama doesn't imply rascism (at least in the normal sense of the word) any more than the overwhelming Irish Catholic support of JFK or the Polish and Greek support for Muskie or Agnew. These happened across the board even in the subgroups that would normally vote their economic interests. it's just the natural response to 'one of our own made good'. Most of these black Obama voters would normally be voting for the (white) democratic candidate (and have in the past). This is a very different case from a white voter who would not vote for any black candidate - because- he was black and there are some of these; the question is whether they were the deciding factor.
However if by some miracle Hillary manages to get the nomination now, I can't see how it wouldn't be seen as 'stolen' by the black community. Lord know's Condi has negatives but if McCain would choose her as VP I could see a change in the American political map at least as large as the "Reagan Democrats". That's probably why he's waiting to choose a VP.
dd: PLEASE stop assuming that old, cliched identity behavior on the part of Blacks! You simply cannot assume that if the R's cynically put a Black face into the VP slot, all the hands would gather on the farm, and start a-whoopin' and a-singin' and a-leapin' for joy. Now THAT'S racist!
I will NEVER... as long as I live... forget the smirk on George H.W. Bush's face (it runs in the family), when he nominated that lowlife scumbag Uncle Tom (yes, I SAID IT!) legal lightweight, Clarence Thomas, to the Supreme Court. You could almost hear the subtext: "HA! What are you little black bastards gonna do NOW?"
Please, a little credit for the Black community. There won't be a Black Republican tsunami if the war criminal Rice is put on the ticket. NOT THAT STUPID.
As a black person I have first hand knowledge that most blacks won't vote for someone just because they happen to be black. I didn't and a lot of other blacks didn't support Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton's presdential runs. Even if McCain picks Condi Rice as his running mate blacks won't vote for her because she has an unfavorable image in the blcak community. If Hillary Clinton gets the nomination and does it a way that she offends blacks more than she and her husband already have, there will be a boycott of the election by many.
You're assuming that black people will get to vote in November. The DoJ have been working overtime these last few years to bring voter caging nationwide
Sadly, the AA vote won't actually matter because there won't be any...
Why is no one else discussing this issue? This, if anything, is what is going to cost EITHER Democrat in November.
So then what your saying is if Obama does not get the nomination and Condi became McCains V.P. that, the 92% would switchbased on the color of her skin. Thats not a rascist standard at all, I'll tell you though that as a white man I would not vote for Obama but I would for someone like Condi. if the tides were switched and someone say like Edwards was the Dem nominee running against Condi, she would have my vote.
Thats based on her character, are you telling me as a community you don't vote on issues or character rather the color of someone's skin when you have the opprotunity to do so, because one of your own made good. Thats partly the reason rascism exist today and the other part is this blog these liberals who play on your fear that most white americans hate blacks. I'm not saying that there are those who don't but it is the same on both sides of the fence. The reason I respect someone like Condi over someone like Obama is I've never heard her say for the first time in her life she was proud to be an american. Unlike Obama's wife who despite the fact that she went to 2 of the most prestigeous schools in the nation and is prob a lot better off than most of us the white man has kept her down she's listened to Rev. Wright's propoganda for way to long.
Condi? You would vote for her because you have never heard her say something? Let me ask you this. Every few months we get the big congressional hearing with Peteaus and Crocker explaining away this Iraq disaster. Why is our Secy of State not testifying? Is this Iraq issue too trivial for her to make the trip to the Hill and explain what diplomatic measures she is taking to end this debacle? No, she sends the Ambassador instead and now we have a General making political policy for us civilians. Petreaus is not even head of CENTCOM. He is 3 levels down from the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But sure enough those colorful medals and ribbons intimidate our elected representatives from asking the hard questions, that Petreaus should not even be answering.
Condi is a coward.
Obamba voted to nominate Condi Rice for Sec. of State... a conservative
Obamba ACTIVELY supported and campaigned for Lieberman.
Obamaba voted to raise credit card rates and supported Bush environmental policies..
all right-wing policies
Obamba skipped town for abortion-related votes--sucking up to his radical Christian power base.
Obama is a born-again Christian Bible thumper.
This is what passes for a " liberal" candidate in America?
This is laughable.
In Europe Obama would be considered a right wing religious conservative.
Is it that you just did not get it or that you chose to miss ddanaan's point? Go back and read again where it says "if the black community felt that the nomination was stolen", then they may stay home. The fact is that actions speak louder than words, Condi is a part of the bush administration and has defended his actions for the past 7+ years.
As a black woman, I would love to see a black woman in either the number one or two positions but, just like hillary, not that woman. Condi may not have said certain things but her actions have spoken much louder than her words.
Wow, I could not have put it better.
Greg,
There are varying levels of racism that you deal with across Democratic and Republican party lines. Most racist Democrats are only mildly racist. The more virulent racists in our country are undoubtedly firmly in the GOP camp.
I personally doubt Hillary Clinton's honor and can not envision she will try to heal the party after she is denied the nomination aside from a half-hearted endorsement followed by silence until after the general when a GOP win will prompt an 'I told you so' from her.
But if she does do the honorable thing and campaigns for Senator Obama, then I think she can capture 90% of her voters for Obama. Half of the remaining 10% means the Dems lose only 5% to the GOP. If Al Gore or John Kerry had lost only 5% of Democratic voters, they would be president today.
What party was it Abe Lincoln belonged to? Ohh thats right the republican party the ones who are more virulent rascist. I believe John Wilkes Booth was a Democrate thats just my opinion but... your a fool wake up.
Show me the proof that the GOP is rascist because beleive me that would make me sick and I might find the need to switch party lines, but I want hardcore facts and proof not this he said she said BS liberals spew everyday.
Do your own research, that is a large part of your problem. Start with Strom, Lott, Nixon, Reagan in Mississippi, Bush/Horton/ GW Bush/ SC. Come back after you read.
trying to equate the Republican Party of today with the Republican Party of Lincoln's age is the utter perversion of history. For God's sake, no-one is in any doubt that the Republicans live, breathe and worship at the altar of racism. I can't imagine how anyone with a shred of dignity would want to be associated with the GOP of today.
David Duke
Why do you suppose Southern Democrats quickly became Republicans after Johnson did the decent thing and addressed the discrimination against negroes? Those former slave owners were racists and many still are. How can it be denied?
Your comparison of Lincoln's Republican Party of 1860 to the post-Dixiecrat GOP of today is historically ignorant. Not to mention unworkable.
Go read something, and don't come back until you KNOW SOMETHING.
(Too much damned ignorance, around here... too much damned ignorance.
In this race between a REAL progressive and a Faux progressive, the truth will win out. No matter the hate and overt racism the hillary machine throws at Obama. Obama will win and will win big in November!
Once again, an Obama surrogate plays the race card.
One half of your name is utterly absent from your commentary, though both apply. You need a little more "Informed" to go with your "Misery".
informed is right, just look at some of the headlines here at OBama....I mean Huff Post. She won by 10 and they want to say it doesn't matter, or that it's because of racism. What about sexism? What about him getting 90% of the black vote??? If you are going to attempt to make such comments you should at least include the entire spectrum and not just the one that helps you make excuses for Obama.
The late deciders going to Clinton because of race...now it all makes sense.
In all parts of the United States there is a segment of society that will never vote for a black candidate, no matter how qualified he is. I thought maybe my father who grew up in the JimCrow south was wrong but he said this country is not ready for a black person as president.
And there are some people in this country who will NEVER vote for a woman.....
Maybe the difference in the result and the exit polls was due to electronic voting machines. Exit polls in Bucks and Montgomery Counties, which tend not to be as racist as other parts of the state, showed Obama winning 60-40, and in Montgomery they split almost even and Bucks he got trounced.
The real story here is the pattern of voting by age . Those under 50 voting for Obama those over for Clinton.
Not this 59 y/o woman...I support Obama....
And not this 60-year-old woman either. I'm sick of the slurs against "old people" and "post-menopausal white women" from the all-knowing under-30s, who bemoan racism while blithely making damning statements about the stupidity of older citizens.
I've been for Obama since before he decided to run. As an Illinois resident, I've known him for years. The vast majority of my ancient, decrepit friends are also for Obama. I'm thrilled that younger voters are turning out in big numbers for Obama, but I wish you all would exercise a little more intelligence when it comes to deciding who's a stupid voter and who's a smart one.
I think that some of the difference between the Clinton voters and the Obama voters in Pennsylvania, my home state, has to do with class and education issues, although racism, sexism, and ageism also play a part.
I F YOU WATCH THE CABLE CHANNELS AS I DID AS THE RESULTS CAME IN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING YOU WOULD THINK HILLARY HAD WON THE ELECTION FROM McCAIN AND SHE IS THE NEW PRESIDENT. THE FACT IS SEN BARACK IS STILL LEADING AND WILL BE ONE TO GO UP AGAINST McCAIN SO THEY CAN KEEP THE GLOW . SMILES AND LAUGH LIKE MORNING JOE A.LL OF MSNBC , HANNITYAND. FOX AND ALL THEIR FRIENDS BECAUSE THIS ELECTION SHOWED ALL THE WORLD THAT RACISM IS ALIVE AND WELL IN AMERICA .
"racism is alive and well in America"..
You are right! there is no racism in this great country of ours! WOO HOO
I don't hate America. I hate the government. Can you not separate these two entities? I'm tired of being represented by uneducated, rural voters. I want an IQ test given out with registration cards. No brain, no vote!
There you go again.
Pointing out racism in America does not make one "America-hating" any more than wanting the war to end mean one "doesn't support the troops." In fact, just the opposite is true. Ponting out where America can become greater by fixing its flaws is an indication of Greater love for America, not hatred for it, just as wanting the troops to come home is the greater support for them.
I knew racism was going to be the topic about PA today. Of course, if Obama had pulled an upset, then the media would be talking about how sexist PA residents are. Was race a factor? Probably, but the talking pinheads will be magnifying it until it's the only factor that mattered. Hillary was leading PA polls long before the contest had been whittled down to her and Obama. She had the biggest democratic heavy hitters in state (the governor and the mayors of our two largest cities) in her corner. Obama just had one Senator. Obama stumbled through this last week over his "bitter" gaffe (which I still think was 100% accurate). Had he not made that mistake, he probably still would have lost, but the margin would have been closer to 5%.
So, Hillary won a state that everyone knew she was going to win. The only reason PA got so much attention was because of the six week lag time since the last contest. Thus, the media spin was already in place to blame it on racism. Oh well.
Hillary won by just a big enough margin to justify continuing the circus. She'll probably still lose the nomination in the end, so enjoy it while you can.
Unfortunately, there's little to "enjoy" here, for either side in this contest. In fact, anyone who cares about ending the eight years of the Bush error can only be saddened.
I worry that the most dedicated supporters of Senator Clinton and the strongest devotees of Senator Obama are now both mired in denial.
Senator Clinton's supporters are waiting for a Deus-ex-machina to descend on the Primary Stage and lift her above the chorus of her admirers and the carnage of the campaign battlefield to a Superdeleg
Senator Obama's followers want to pretend that it isn't a problem for the General that he carried only 31% of the Democratic Primary Catholic vote and 35--38% (depending on the exit polls you read) of that same audience's White vote. Unless that profile changes dramatically, he won't win in November.
In the meantime, we're worrying about who's "enjoying" what or who has the best come-uppance on the other this week. Rome's burning. We're fiddling around. McCain's loving every minute of it.
"Senator Clinton's supporters are waiting for a Deus-ex-machina to descend on the Primary Stage and lift her above the chorus of her admirers and the carnage of the campaign battlefield to a Superdeleg
I like that. I think it exemplifies why so many of her supporters in the blogosphere have been so angry and militant over the past few weeks. Deep down, the Clintons and their supporters truly believe that they own the party and the nomination is hers by divine right. A year ago, they were betting that the primary was going to be a coronation. Once it became clear that she was going to have to work for it, the anger set in.
Personally, I think a Hillary nomination means a McCain victory in November, but I guess we'll see how this plays out.
She received supposed support from blue-collar female workers in Pennsylvania? Are these women paying attention? Hillary was pro-NAFTA from all of her public statements and private dealings. The same NAFTA that has shafted blue-collar workers. Hillary changes her tune about NAFTA with her race for the White House and female blue-collar workers are going to forget about her past? Why? Because she is a woman? Because they are closet racists? I don't know what's in their heart. But, I know something ain't quite right there.
I think you are right on. They let their hate overcome economics, so they will deserve every thing that happens in Penn. when McCain is elected.
Is Obama's support among African Americans race based support? Maybe that should be looked into.
PHdiva said it BEST below.....
""Get this straight. Black people have no problem voting for a white candidate for president. We've done it repeatedly. We've also repeatedly refused to vote for Black candidates that did not meet our approval. We don't have to prove that we're willing to vote for white people. We already have. Most of these white voters have never proven that they would vote for a Black candidate under any circumstances. They've never done it, and many of them never will. That's the difference. Learn some history.""
The big elephant in the room is the question of how many crossover voters that broke for Clinton would really vote for Clinton in November anyway. The so called Limbaugh voters. This number could easily account for a large part of Clinton's margin in PA and OH and in large part explains why so many who voted for her also said they would not vote for Obama.
It's highly suspicious that the 40% of party changers that broke for Clinton, as reported in exit polls, are true Clinton supporters. It's really too bad that the media isn't factoring this in when they discuss the white vote, as it really changes things.
Operation Chaos is what those tampering with the process unashamedly call it.
I agree. I think it was a larger factor than the MSM want to believe. I have felt all along, from speaking to friends in Texas and Ohio, that "operation chaos" was not to be taken lightly. The Clinton's have actually encouraged it by courting right wing media outlets. The nice thing about caucuses is that precinct by precinct people tend to know each other and those that would like to caucus for Hillary for the sole purpose of helping McCain run a high risk of being called out by their friends and nieghbor's. The Iowa Gop talked about doing it leading up to the Iowa caucus but few had the guts to show up for this very reason. The superdelegates need to grow backbones and end this.
Hillary gets 70% of the white blue collar vote, and Obama gets 90% of the entire black vote. Who is benifiting most from racism?
Get this straight. Black people have no problem voting for a white candidate for president. We've done it repeatedly. We've also repeatedly refused to vote for Black candidates that did not meet our approval. We don't have to prove that we're willing to vote for white people. We already have. Most of these white voters have never proven that they would vote for a Black candidate under any circumstances. They've never done it, and many of them never will. That's the difference. Learn some history.
True indeed. Black people have been voting for white presidential candidates since... we've been allowed to vote. How many white people have voted for black presidential candidates until now? Hmmm... We definitely need some real talk when it comes to race in America.
Exactly.
"We've also repeatedly refused to vote for Black candidates that did not meet our approval."
Like Alan Keyes, Carol Mosley Braun and Al Sharpton to cite recent examples from both parties.
Obama is an attractive candidate for many reasons. The perspective that he brings because of his heritage is a bonus.
As you frame it, Hillary. 70% of 211 million is much more than 90% of 34 million.
Race is a major factor. Some people would rather die than admit that there are people of color better qualified to do a job than a so-called white man or woman.
I for one will never vote for the lessor of two evils again. I just won't vote for someone I don't trust and that does not inspire me.
Obama has demonstrated in every way that he is the best person for the job. I trust the final 9 states will not be like Ohio and PA.
I don't like the Clintons because they are not decent people. If you will lie, you will steal, if you will steal you will kill.
You are so very right!! I have racest red-necks in my extended Wva. family I'm ashamed to say that they will never vote for a non white person, the stupid bastards would rather starve to death. S I say let them starve!!!!
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