Whoops: NONE of Top Campaign Bloggers at Newspapers Predicted Obama Win

Just for fun, one year ago this week, my magazine Editor & Publisher, as part of a cover package looking ahead to the 2008 campaign -- and predicting the historic influence of the Web -- we decided to have some fun and ask top campaign bloggers at the leading newspapers to forecast what was likely to happen in 2008.

As it happens, none of them picked Obama to even get the nomination, and Mitt Romney led the pack to the GOP nod. Note also that Iraq was still seen as the #1 issue then.

Well, at least no one was as wrong as our friend Bill Kristol who, on Dec. 17, 2006 on Fox News, said, "If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she's going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her ... Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single democratic primary. I'll predict that right now."

Anyway, here is what we published one year ago:

James Pindell, The Boston Globe:

Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Can't choose now
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee

Frank James, Chicago Tribune

Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: John McCain
Dark Horse: John McCain

Kate Phillips, The New York Times

Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: No Choice
Expected Republican Nominee: No Choice
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee

Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post

Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Mitt Romney
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee, John Edwards

Andrew Malcolm, Los Angeles Times

Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Mitt Romney
Dark Horse: John Edwards

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election

Comments

[magicmary]

If I had the time I would gather up the astrological predictions. Most of them were spot on! Just from looking at his chart I thought there was a possibility of someone close to him dying or a threat on his life of which there were a few of course but you don't need astrology for that one.

[Clavis]

I did my star charts today -- they say that tomorrow, I will eat, breathe and go to the bathroom! WOW! Such magic!

[irishgawdess]

"It's the War Economy, Stupid!"

[Sumocat]

Ha! I called McCain in November 2006 based on his 2004 deal with Bush. Obama was too new for me to have picked him at the time, but I didn't go with Clinton either; I said Biden would take the nomination. Obviously I didn't nail the prediction, but I was more right two years ago than these so-called experts were one year ago.
http://sumocat.blogspot.com/2008/08/hope-im-only-half-right-about-biden.html

P.S. Bill Kristol couldn't call a coin toss with a two-headed quarter.

[LizM]

That was nothing short of predictable. I mean, seriously...the most crucial campaign issue is Iraq and none of them (well, there were some in the media who bucked the trend of media incompetence and ineptitude) had anything good to say about the only candidate who intimately understood what would be required to end the civil war in Iraq and the only candidate who actually developed a comprehensive and viable strategy to promote a sustainable political solution that would allow for the responsible withdrawal of US forces without leaving a failed state behind.

Fortunately, for us all, President-elect Obama said a lot about this candidate when he selected him for his running mate.

[Carolab]

Guess they didn't expect us to steal it back!

[mzwednesday]

they should all be sacked:)

[mscriblerus]

Any time anyone is talking about political pundits being Ingloriously wrong, therein shall Bill Kristol be mentioned. But I guess he had a lot of company this time.

[RaineyDay5]

We make plans (and predictions) and God smiles.....

[max08]

That's why no one pays them much attention. Lesser bloggers new, and worked to get him elected.

[naeldwyck]

Would also be good to compare the election results with the pollsters' and commentators' guesstimates, calling the race close up to a day before the election. Of course, a close race is in their best (financial) interest.

[UWNBM]

CNN called it very close...6%

The wildly wrong predictions of CBS and others, with the nonsensical 12 points, was worse than any of these bloggers wrong predictions...far worse.

I said 4%...so don't EVER try to tell me I am wrong again...hee hee!

[naeldwyck]

back from holiday, probably nobody will see this but anyway: what is close nationally is not close electorally. As the election result shows, 6% is only very close under certain distributions nationwide. As it stood a small percentage difference nationwide translated into a landslide electorally. No way this was a close election result.