On November 25, 2009, the Government of Israel announced a 10-month moratorium on settlement construction. From the outset it was clear that the impact of this decision would depend mainly on whether the government of Israel implemented the decision in good faith.
Now, three months into the moratorium, it should be recognized that there are some positive aspects to the moratorium, but it must also be recognized that these have been outweighed -- especially in terms of impact on the political process -- by Israeli actions, decisions, and policies that call into question its good-faith commitment both to the moratorium and to peace negotiations. (For a more extensive version of this analysis, see here).
1. There are significant positive aspects to the announcement of the moratorium:
The moratorium is official law. Unlike previous declarations on "Settlement Freeze", this time the government of Israel issued a military order imposing the moratorium, making it a legal obligation and violations are considered breaches of the law.
The moratorium does not distinguish between settlements. The military order implementing the moratorium treats all settlements as equal with no "settlement blocs" or other excuses, and in effect recognizing the Green Line as the basis for future negotiations (except in East Jerusalem).
The moratorium does not distinguish between governmental or private initiatives. The previous serious (but still partial) freeze - announced by the Rabin government in the 1990s - only applied to government-initiated projects. The current moratorium applies to both private and public initiatives.
If the moratorium is extended there could be a complete freeze of construction in the settlements. Since the moratorium allows only to complete construction that started before the moratorium was declared, theoretically, if it is extended past the 10-month period (with no new exceptions or loopholes), eventually when all the current construction is completed there will be, for the first time ever, no construction in the settlements.
There are some positive political facts disclosed by the moratorium:
This government is stable. Netanyahu's coalition has proved to be very stable. His right-wing partners know that if they leave the coalition, the Kadima party will quickly join and they will be left with no influence in the government.
If pressed, this government will take actions that contradict its hard-line declared positions. The fact that this far right-wing government was able to survive the imposition of the moratorium shows that when pressed, this government is willing and able to abandon its hard-line rhetoric for more pragmatic policies.
The Israeli public is prepared to accept serious compromises on settlements. As was seen during Israel's disengagement from Gaza, it seems that the Israeli public is still largely indifferent when it comes to the settlements, and the loud cries of the settlers objecting to the moratorium have not really been echoed in the public arena.
2. Some aspects of the announcement of the moratorium contradict and undermine the credibility and impact of the moratorium.
The moratorium itself is problematic. The moratorium is full of holes: it doesn't include East Jerusalem; it permits a great deal of construction to continue; and it is time-limited.
Wide-scale "legal" construction and planning in settlements continues.
Built into the moratorium were a large number of "exceptions" permitting construction that was already underway to continue and some new construction to start. These exceptions reflect a far higher rate of construction than inside the Green Line.
Construction continues in violation of the freeze, with no apparent consequences thus far. Settler violations of the moratorium have been constant and blatant, with the government of Israel admitting they are taking place in at least a quarter of the settlements. Peace Now has documented evidence of settlers laying fake foundations, and documented evidence of settlers carrying out new (unauthorized) infrastructure work.
The government of Israel is creating loopholes to allow more "legal" construction and planning in settlements during the moratorium:
On January 7th, Defense Minister Ehud Barak issued an order "mitigating" the settlement freeze. Among other things, the revised order gives the settler municipalities the authority to process (but not grant) construction permits. This means that when the moratorium ends, there could be a significant pool of permits ready to be issued immediately.
The government of Israel is refusing to take action against illegal outposts (and appears to be trying to legalize some). The government of Israel has told the High Court that it cannot take action on outposts because of the burden placed on it to enforce the moratorium, and the government has told the court that it is planning to re-examine the cases of two illegal outposts with an eye toward retroactively authorizing them.
The government of Israel is adopting policies and making statements that undermine the credibility of the moratorium. There are many reasons for the Palestinians to mistrust the Netanyahu government's intentions, and given that the moratorium is so limited, its actual impact is hard to measure and hard for Palestinians to see on the ground. For the moratorium to be credible, it must be backed up by actions and words that demonstrate Israeli good faith. Unfortunately, thus far the evidence points to an absence of good faith. Examples include: the government's decision to include most of the settlements in the list of "national priority areas,"; Netanyahu's declaration at a tree-planting ceremony that Ariel will forever remain part of Israel; the IDF's decision to re-establish a military outpost on Palestinian lands near Bethlehem and the recent government decision to include several sites in the West Bank in new list of Israeli national heritage sites.
Events in Jerusalem are out of control. Although Jerusalem was explicitly not mentioned in the moratorium, Jerusalem emerged immediately as a focal point of tensions and of actions that discredit Israeli good faith regarding settlements and negotiations. Unless Jerusalem is brought under control, it will be impossible to launch or sustain a credible political process. Examples of the problems in Jerusalem include the announcement of a massive new plan to expand the settlement of Gilo, and the steady stream of problematic Jerusalem-related developments: the announcements of new tenders for construction in Neve Yaacov, Har Homa, and Pisgat Zeev; the refusal to clamp down on extremist Jewish initiatives in the heart of Palestinian neighborhoods (Mt. of Olives, Sheikh Jarrah, Silwan); continued home demolitions and threats of many more (Silwan), refusal to clamp down on illegal settler activities in East Jerusalem (Beit Yehonaton); and most recently the decision (not widely known thus far) to include the area surrounding the Old City and Silwan/City of David in Israel's new national heritage plan.
Co-authored by Lara Friedman
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What can be done to rally Israelis to support the settlement freeze? Right now they are indifferent and that really helps the government play these sort of games. But if the Israeli people demand the government take this step, a real step, towards a full scale settlement freeze (maybe in the condition that Abbas has to come back to the table), what do you think would happen?
I do not know if you followed this, courtb, but in the last couple of days I tried to build a bridge: I suggested to the "Palestinian supporters" here that we jointly call for immediate Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, no pre-conditions, no strings attached. Not one of them was willing to do that, NOT ONE..
I think there are peple in the Palestinian Authority wo are not extremists, who would like to make peace. But I also think they doubt their ability to make any significant concessions in the face of opposition by the extremists. What the Palestinians need is not a Gandhi. What they need is a Sadat, someone with the courage to put his life on the line. Not many of those, unfortunately.
We all are aware that the PA is hiding behind the settlement issue. But unlike territory withdrawal, this one is pretty easy. I say...call their bluff. I also say call Hamas' bluff. End the blockade. It's not stopping the weapons smuggling and it's not turning people against Hamas - it's ineffective and harsh. End the blockade, invite Hamas to a summit, freeze settlement building completely...and say "Now what?!" Show them for what they really are.
http://community.sky.com/profile/profile.html?userId=themiddleeastreview&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckUserId=themiddleeastreview&plckPostId=Blog%3athemiddleeastreviewPost%3a36d829b4-db70-4c0e-856a-c933e94bd4c9&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest
The famous words of Bill Clinton (one of my heroes) when Arafat called Clinton in January 2001 to tell him what a great man he was, Clinton shot back: "I am not a great man. I am a failure, and you have made me one."
"The number of housing starts in the settlements rose in the fourth quarter of 2009, precisely when the government-ordered freeze on such activity should have pushed the numbers down.
Work was begun on 593 Jewish West Bank homes from October through December, a 73.3-percent jump over the first three months of 2009, when ground was broken on 342 homes, according to numbers released this week by the Central Bureau of Statistics.
The increase is even more dramatic – 84.7% – when the fourth quarter of last year is compared with the second, when work was commenced on 321 homes.
The tide, however, turned sharply in the third quarter, when work was started on 447 homes.
The numbers continued to rise in the fourth quarter, even though Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the cabinet imposed a 10-month moratorium on new settlement construction that took effect on November 29, which should have prevented any housing starts in December, and thus kept the fourth quarter tally down."
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=170058
I do think it's a stretch to say the Israeli public is indifferent about the settlements. Gaza is one thing, the West Bank is an entirely different situation. It's hard for me to imagine a time when the Israeli public will agree to relinquish claims to the settlement blocks in Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Ramallah, etc.
And may I ask how did you reach this conclusion, TStringfellow? How many Israelis did you ask? Your vast knowledge is sooo obvious: there aren't any settlements in either Bethlehem or Ramallah, friend. And most Israelis ARE indifferent about settlements - they don't see them as very important for Israel and certainly not an obstacle to peace, if someone WANTS to make peace.
The settlement freeze isn't perfect, but the question is what now? Are the Palestinians going to come to the negotiating table, or are they going to put off statehood for a few more years?
Does anyone actually believe that Israel wants peace? This "nod and a wink" approach to settler activities and outrages is proof that it does not.
P.S. I apologize in advance for the torrent of antisemitic swill this article of yours is sure to provoke.
If it's your own opinion that's OK, but in that case attributing it to someone else is misleading.