Hale "Bonddad" Stewart

Hale "Bonddad" Stewart

Posted: July 5, 2008 10:41 AM

It's Not "Liberal Media Bias"; It's the Economy, Stupid

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To those of us who started writing about economics on the web, Barry Rithotlz is like a blog Godfather. His blog the Big Picture was one of the first economics blogs I found and is one I still read regularly. He inspired many of us to start writing ourselves.

Thankfully, Barry is also a deeply irreverent voice challenging standard assumptions about practically everything. However, his arguments are not crouched in ignorance; they are in fact some of the best researched and documented columns in any medium. Several days ago he published an article titled Pervasive Pollyannas of Prosperity where he made the following points:

We have heard longstanding charges of liberal media bias, going all the way back to Spiro Agnew's Nattering Nabobs of Negativism (September 11, 1970). Whatever validity that Trojan horse might have ever had has now jumped the shark. Mass Media is owned by large corporate interests (Disney, Viacom, News Corp, Time Warner, etc.). If anything, the disconnect between reality and the "Pervasive Pollyannas of Prosperity" has rendered moot William Safire's catchphrase.


Indeed, the bias is precisely the other way -- between reality and ideological absurdity.

Its the Lite Beer marketing syndrome: If your product is pisswater, and fattening to boot, you never admit that in your advertising. Instead, you frame the debate as whether it "tastes great or is less filling." Its jiu jitsu marketing, turning your liability into an advantage. The misdirection is often effective.

How absurd has the Panglossian cheerleading become? On my pal Larry Kudlow's show last night, several of Candide's descendants talked about how great stocks are if you hold them for 30 years. That's right, the holding period for equities according to this crowd is three decades. Of course, this means every pullback is a buying opportunity. Words such as these can only be spoken by someone who has never worked on a trading desk or managed assets professionally -- or if they did, they lost most of their clients' money.

Rather than address why the public is so unhappy, the triple Ps toss charges of bias. Ignore the worst monthly Auto Sales since 1992, ignore the latest signs of consumer distress (Starbucks closing 500 stores). And when that stops working, PPP starts discussing the long run, ignoring the trading wisdom of Keynes. Its yet more evidence of the pollution of economics with partisan politics. Fortunately for most of the Pervasive Pollyannas of Prosperity, they don't have to live off their market calls. Those who invest based on their "Never say recession" worldview best have another source of income. Fortunately, most of the public isn't so easily misled.

This is something that has irritated me for some time -- the cheerleading at the expense of factual analysis. I live in Houston, Texas where all we have on the AM dial is right-wing radio. From 6 AM to midnight, we are saturated with the likes of Hannity, Rush, Gallagher and their ilk. To hear them talk, you'd think we're just going through a minor correction which the "liberal media" is blowing completely out of proportion (you can also read such garbage from the likes of Captain Ed, Red State and Newsbusters.) If we only continued to think happy thoughts and put a super-positive spin on everything all would be well.

This is a pure Orwellian fantasy of the highest order. The underlying facts of the current economy are terrible; as I will outline below we've got serious problems that can't be spun away with "happy thoughts". But that doesn't stop the right-wing idiots from continuing to push their "liberal media is talking down a great economy" line of attack. So, the next time you hear a talking head say, "all we need is happier reporting" respond with observations of facts presented below and see what they say.

I'm going to base this analysis on a document from the most liberal group ever imagined. This group is so liberal they make the phrase "liberal Democrat" look like a member of the John Birch Society. This group is often the target of right wing attacks because of their liberal nature. In fact, this group is politically to the left of th ACLU and anybody who attended the Woodstock summer of love festival. So -- who is this group? the Federal Reserve. About every month and a half, they release a document called the Beige Book. This book is filled with Democratic party talking points. There is not one right wing point to balance out the hardened leftist communist, defeatist rhetoric contained therein. It is a disgusting document that is filled with anti-American bile. Here is the main hateful paragraph of their latest release.

Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity remained generally weak in late April and May. Three Districts described economic activity as softer, weaker, or lower, with an additional four Districts reporting slower, sluggish, or modest economic growth. The remaining five Districts of Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Francisco described activity as stable or little changed in recent weeks.


Consumer spending slowed since the last report as incomes were pinched by rising energy and food prices. Higher energy prices also appeared to damp domestic tourism. Reports on nonfinancial services varied across Districts and industries. Manufacturing activity was generally soft in recent weeks, with weak demand for housing-related and some other products but with increasing demand for exports. Residential real estate markets remained weak across most Districts. Commercial real estate conditions varied across Districts, as did reports on nonresidential construction activity. Lending activity also varied across Districts and market segments, though tighter credit standards were reported for most loan categories. Districts reporting on the agriculture and energy sectors noted improved crop conditions and increased drilling and extraction activity.

Reports of higher input costs were widespread. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts noted some ability to pass along higher costs to customers. Retailers reported mixed results with respect to raising final goods prices. In most Districts, wage pressures were reported as moderate or limited for all but a few skilled-labor positions, as hiring activity remained spotty in most Districts.

Clear, this group of people hate America.

I'm going to turn off the sarcasm and return to bland econ mode now. Let's take a look at what the Federal Reserve is talking about.

Consumer spending slowed since the last report as incomes were pinched by rising energy and food prices. Higher energy prices also appeared to damp domestic tourism.


Reports of higher input costs were widespread. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts noted some ability to pass along higher costs to customers. Retailers reported mixed results with respect to raising final goods prices.

Oil is a big problem right now. My wife and I had a party last night and oil/gas prices were a big topic of conversation. The general consensus was if gas prices remain at current levels we're going to see profound changes in US behavior. Here is a long-term chart of oil prices:

Prices have increased from $40/bbl at the beginning of 2004 to to over $140/bbl today. That's a 250% increase of the basic commodity that powers most of out transportation. That's a profound increase that is bound to slip into every single nook and cranny of the economy in one way or the other. In short -- this is a big issue, that is not going away any time soon.

Consumer spending slowed since the last report as incomes were pinched by rising energy and food prices.

"Bonddad -- look at that increase! Things are turning around!" Sure they are. And how often will the federal government be able to mail out stimulus checks to keep people spending? Take a look at personal income:

We had one of the biggest bumps in the last 20 years thanks to the federal government doling out money. What do you think is going to happen in the next few months after those checks stop coming out from Washington? Considering year over year employment growth has been dropping for several years:

And the unemployment rate is increasing (wasn't this number suppose to magically come down because of the increase in teen unemployment in the last number, Captain Ed?):

I wouldn't be expecting a wage increase anytime soon.

Reports on nonfinancial services varied across Districts and industries.

The ISM non-manufacturing index has been creeping downward for the last 3 years. It is currently below 50 indicating a contraction and has been reading at that level for 4 of the last 6 months. This indicates that things in the non-manufacturing sector are not going well.

Manufacturing activity was generally soft in recent weeks, with weak demand for housing-related and some other products but with increasing demand for exports.

The year-over-year industrial production number has been decreasing for the last 6 months,

Capacity utilization has been decreasing,

And the Empire (NY Fed) and Philly Fed indexes have been in poor shape for the last 5 months. The only good news is:

The ISM manufacturing indexes recent read about 50. But considering where this number has been over the last 5 months, we'll need at least one more month of positive news before we can say things are good -- and then only if we get confirmation from one of the other numbers listed above. The overwhelming news from manufacturing is negative right now -- at least according to these really stubborn things called facts and statistics.

Residential real estate markets remained weak across most Districts

Here's the short lesson in the US' current real estate market.

Existing home inventory is at a mammoth level in both real terms

And month's of available supply.

As a result,

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.


The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, less than forecast, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001. A separate report showed consumer confidence slumped this month to the lowest level in 16 years.

Mortgage defaults and foreclosures are adding to the glut of properties on the market, while stricter loan rules are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is taking a toll on consumers and the economy.

Commercial real estate conditions varied across Districts, as did reports on nonresidential construction activity. Lending activity also varied across Districts and market segments, though tighter credit standards were reported for most loan categories.

Banking is doing so well that:

Securities firms and banks have reported more than $400 billion of writedowns and credit losses, and raised about $322 billion to replenish reserves since the start of last year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Anshu Jain, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank AG, said this week that the contagion sparked by the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse has erased more than a fifth of the banking industry's value and is ``by no means over.''

And another bastion of liberal media bias, a group that hates America and in unpatriotic has said the following about the US banking system:

# INDUSTRY EARNINGS DECLINE 46 PERCENT FROM YEAR-EARLIER LEVEL

# LOSS PROVISIONS ABSORB A HIGHER SHARE OF REVENUE
# TROUBLED LOANS ACCUMULATE IN REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIOS
# LENDING GROWTH SLOWS
# FOURTH QUARTER 2007 EARNINGS ARE REVISED BELOW $1 BILLION

.....

Deteriorating asset quality concentrated in real estate loan portfolios continued to take a toll on the earnings performance of many insured institutions in first quarter 2008. Higher loss provisions were the primary reason that industry earnings for the quarter totaled only $19.3 billion, compared to $35.6 billion a year earlier. FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions set aside $37.1 billion in loan-loss provisions during the quarter, more than four times the $9.2 billion set aside in first quarter 2007. Provisions absorbed 24 percent of the industry's net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income) in the quarter, compared to only 6 percent in the first quarter of 2007. The average return on assets (ROA) was 0.59 percent, falling from 1.20 percent in first quarter 2007. The first quarter's ROA is the second-lowest since fourth quarter 1991. The downward trend in profitability was relatively broad: slightly more than half of all insured institutions (50.4 percent) reported year-over-year declines in quarterly earnings. However, the brunt of the earnings decline was borne by larger institutions. Almost two out of every three institutions with more than $10 billion in assets (62.4 percent) reported lower net income in the first quarter, and four large institutions accounted for more than half of the $16.3-billion decline in industry net income.

That liberal, America hating institution is the FDIC from their latest Quarterly banking Profile

So, to Larry Kudlow, Captain Ed, Newsbusters, Donald Luskin and anyone else who is telling us the economy is just fine and dandy, please provide facts to refute everything mentioned above. Please provide facts that demonstrate:

1.) The consumer is in great shape

2.) Manufacturing is going gangbusters,

3.) Real Estate is just about to bottom,

4.) The financial sector is about to turn around

When you can write a fact based paper that demonstrates the above mentioned points, please do so. However, you opinion that the liberal media is talking down a great economy is, well, garbage. I am calling it such and am awaiting your fact-based response to the points made by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC.

 
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- usna73 I'm a Fan of usna73 21 fans permalink
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You have it right. Now that traditional investment banks are vaporized, we will have no chocide but to have the typcial hedge funds go into the banking business. Only this time with a Democratic prez and Congress, they will be regulated as they should be. They will need to find those among us who have savings to add the capital. Cash will be king again.

Heaven help you if you are in debt. Hopefully we will tax the very rich at much higher rates to provide the safety net that all people deserve, of decent healthcare, subsidized housing etc.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:51 PM on 07/05/2008

I'm sorry, why do you think you "deserve" a "safety net", subsidized housing, etc? Is it your right as granted in the Constitution? Is it ethically right for a government to take from some of its citizens and give to another?

You are happy to give yours and my personal freedoms and right to self-determination away for welfare.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:44 PM on 07/05/2008
- theMightyT I'm a Fan of theMightyT 181 fans permalink

Donkslayer

I totally agree with your point that it's not ethically right for a government to take from some citizens to give to another.

I will expect you to be protesting KBR and Halliburton, as well as every other government contractor that's been awarded a no-bid contract, as well as agressively pursuing the administration to account for the billions of taxpayer's dollars that they've given to your fellow citisens. After all, that's the most horrific example of what you're talking about- the government giving your hard earned tax dollars to other citizens for doing almost nothing.

And your point about giving personal freedoms and rights away? Bush has already passed a bunch of laws that TAKE them away. You don't have to worry about giving them away.

And guess what? He gave them away for oil.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:02 PM on 07/05/2008
- Viper I'm a Fan of Viper 313 fans permalink

Well Bush upped the Aid to isreal to 30 billion... We borrow that money to send to them. We effectively through our trade deals with communist china sned 250 billion there per year.

The 30 billion to Isreal (pop just 7 million) is more per citizen than we spend there than here. They have national healthcare and we dont.

We have 750 basis is 250 foriegn countries and spend more on defense than the next 20 largest economies in the world combined. The money we spend on those bases and the soldiers pay and etc... is aid to those countries and not money that stimulates our economy here.

But its OK to bail out Bear Streans for 30 billion.. just not the guy down the street.

Regards

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:07 PM on 07/05/2008

Donkslayer,

Do you "deserve" wealth? Do Wall Street traders (for example) "deserve" millions? Billions? Seriously?

Right wingers pathologically believe that "the Market" is more perfect than Nature, so just let the Market work its wonders. As for actual Nature, not much respect there, just let corporations exploit it, and let the wealthiest of the wealthy have the windfall that they "deserve". If Nature pushes back (environmental degradation), then falsify Science (to misrepresent Nature), and keep drilling and having wars, to keep the cash cow on life support before looting the treasury and leaving the workers with whatever this corrupt market says they "deserve". Take no responsibility for the resulting miseries, and then insult everything that possesses intelligence, except "intelligent design", also contrary to Nature.

Decent health care, decent housing, decent education, decent infrastructure, safe food, no one "deserves" these things. We don't "deserve" anything that the Market tells us we can't "afford".

This is Right Wing conviction (call it cognitive sclerosis) at work: worship markets (artificial/institutional), but disdain nature (immediate/real). There is a tragic symmetry to its backwardness.

As for taking away freedoms and such "for welfare": do you know how much of your tax money goes to CORPORATE welfare? Safety net welfare is vanishingly small by comparison, and infinitely worthier.

And thanks for giving GW Bush your permission to degrade the Constitution for Cheney's purposes. We appreciate your keeping the Constitution safe from struggling Americans.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:46 PM on 07/05/2008

Should the government be allowed to take from some of it citizens to give to another? Do your tax dollars support the Iraq war? Mine do but I don't support the war. That was the government's decision. Do your tax dollars support the american infrastructure? Mine do and I do support that - it allows me to get to work each day. Government is always taking from some and giving to others, and government gives some of my dollars to you. You don't mind unless it is a particular program you don't support.

Societies exist because of a social contract. I will help you now if you will help me later. We will help each other because we share the same society and want the best for everyone. America's social contract, as evidenced by your comment, has been voided. It is everyone for him or herself.

You're poor, sick, disabled? Screw you, right buddy?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:00 AM on 07/06/2008
- RTIII I'm a Fan of RTIII 90 fans permalink

Dork,

it's called "enlightened self-interest," and it's all about realizing that when none of us are dirt-poor, starving and destitute, we are all contributing to the economy and we, collectively, create a large base to which to sell consumer goods, etc. Henry Ford knew this - he wanted his workers paid well enough to buy his own products, for example.

No purely capitalistic society can work, and neither can a purely communistic/socialistic society. The right answer is an appropriate balance of both. We in the west refer to the basics of this as the social safety net. By its very name it engenders the very important view and ideal that everyone contributes and there are no free-loaders - that's why it's a SAFETY net. When societies do this, they free business to worry about being competitive with other businesses instead of putting them at war with their workers. It also helps ensure there are strong markets, as I said above.

Apparently you're into UNenlightened self-interest, otherwise known as avarice or greed. Good luck with that, buddy, because it breeds bloody revolution, eventually.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:00 PM on 07/06/2008

Of course, we're their product, not their customers. They're getting paid by their actual customers, the advertisers, to deliver suggestible eyeballs. How well do think that Mercedes ad is going to work on you right after you hear that the economy is on the skids, credit is thoroughly crunched, and the dollar in your pocket is worth less every day?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:31 PM on 07/05/2008
- biwee I'm a Fan of biwee 13 fans permalink

Last night on the McLaughlin show on PBS, Mortimer Zuckerman, a very successful and very wealthy man, stated in the "predictions" section of the show at the end, that the recession we are in will be the worst since the Great Depression (paraphrase). He did not become a billionaire by being wrong.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:04 PM on 07/05/2008
- olephart I'm a Fan of olephart 113 fans permalink

Other than Ron Paul, no one is really looking at the facts and raising the alarm. Everyone seems to have a self serving spin on each component that makes up the overall reality. Even Paul's approach using hard money, a hands' off Government and buggy whips, while appropriate for the 1830s, would only lead to the economy collapsing in a different direction. McCain's ideas of simply leaving the same seating chart at the Captain's table or Obama's rearrangement of the deck chairs won't get to the bottom of the sickening malaise that is our economy.

Any economy has its pluses and minuses. At this time, the minuses have taken a huge lead. Supply side bull feces, Government is the problem horse excrement and the Politics and Policies of Empire coupled with the Military/Industrial Complex have denuded the Capitalist Tree down to the bark. Thrown in the Liberal notion of Government being all things to all people and you've got an economy that's dead in the water.

The Wars are the festering pustules of the Policies of Empire. These policies must be pulled out by the roots. This trillion dollar drag must be cut by half. The second attempt at deregulation has ended worse than the first. An orderly Marketplace must be reestablished. Control of immigration, trade and work visas that led to labor being treated equally must be reestablished. Sound progressive taxation must be returned. ALL spending must be evaluated and treated as a Political privilege not a right.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 PM on 07/05/2008
- MrMike513 I'm a Fan of MrMike513 16 fans permalink
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And I thought Isaac Asimov passed away several years ago. Silly me.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:04 PM on 07/05/2008

Where did I see that article about a repo man for boats out west somewhere? "I used to take the weak ones" he said. "Now I'm taking the whole herd".

When Obama softens his opposition to crime and corruption (FISA Bill) he is said to "move to the center". "Facts" are now liberal bias. The actors on the corporate tv "news" give us happy talk. If Americans were to pull their head out of the sand, what they would see would freak them out.

If you own equities, sell them now. If you have any cash, buy gold or silver. Or if you have a lot of cash buy good farm land. Even if you just go to the hardware store and buy ax handles, at least you wont be standing there with paper money that nobody wants.

Keep up the good work Mr. "Bonddad" Stewart. See you at Home Depot.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 PM on 07/05/2008
- Chas53 I'm a Fan of Chas53 2 fans permalink

Thank you Hale for another well documented column. Methinks, one of our problems in the USA is our infatuation with "gimmick" economics- derivatives, hedge funds etc. etc.. We have a lottery mentality and have lost sight of the relationship between effort/reward. Look at all of the players in the financial game that have greatly enriched themselves at the cost of the little guy/gal. One of my relative's husband retired from a financial outfit at 37! He did not start a company, create a product etc.. Where did his windfall come from?? I agree we are in for a long, painful slog. Hey, not to worry the "market" will take care of everything.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:45 PM on 07/05/2008
- biwee I'm a Fan of biwee 13 fans permalink

Interesting comment. Seems that we now make very little in the USA. Manufacturing is in decline.
Most "stuff" is made overseas and shipped to America. Theonly thing, it seems, that we make in this country is "paper". Meaning CDOs and CMOs, and then try to sell this worthless paper to the world. See where that has taken the housing market and the big financial institutions?? Citigroup is trading at less than $17/share. What a joke!! The scam artists have created a disaster, and taken huge fortunes to leave. Right, Prince and Rubin??

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:09 PM on 07/05/2008
- Viper I'm a Fan of Viper 313 fans permalink

No, we were building the suburbs for the last 30 years instead of other goods.. and our credit card got pulled.

Regards

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 PM on 07/05/2008
- HTooley I'm a Fan of HTooley 8 fans permalink
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This is just a reflection of what happened to me as a young adult fresh out of college in 1977. We were in a recession then, and the only decent job available at the time was to work as a grocery clerk for a supermarket chain. The majority of the night stocking crew was made up of guys like me with college degrees. Needless to say, we had some pretty interesting discussions during our break times. It took another 7 years for me to land a job that actually required my degree. Seven years in the 'desert', and I count myself lucky for finding the way out. I can easily relate to those entering into the workforce today. The deck is stacked against them as it was for me over 30 years ago. The path out of this desert will take perseverance and some luck. The bad news is that the path that I used has now effectively been 'washed out', and cutting new trails are far riskier.

In economic terms, we as a society lost having grocery shelves stocked by a very well educated workforce. Harder to quantify, but we did lose.. Lower your expectations for a turnaround now. It's the new fact based reality and it bites. Thanks Bond-dad for putting out the facts. IMHO, one thing that I think needs to be done is to reverse the consolidation of the mass media. It has turned itself into a propaganda machine, an orwellian "Ministry of Truth".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:55 PM on 07/05/2008

RIP Crapitalism

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:43 PM on 07/05/2008
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The USA version of Capitalism is not dead.

But its wounds are bleeding. Badly.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:47 PM on 07/05/2008

Capitalism outlived its degenerate Imperialist phase decades ago, was put on life-support by the implementation of the "Shock Doctrine" & continues to ravage the world in its now vampiric state. It will not "die" of its own accord, we must all do our part to kill it.
Humanity must put an end to Capitalism or Capitalism will surely put an end to humanity

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:04 PM on 07/05/2008
- jdmccl I'm a Fan of jdmccl 4 fans permalink

Of course everybody has either a bullish or bearish outlook. Like the supposed rabid attacks on Mrs. Obama last week (Huh?) you might be making more of the hype than intended. Rush is entertainment. He is not a formal economist and neither is Sean, Mike or the others you mentioned (I have not heard their take). Unemployment up, inventories up, yep sounds bad to me too. I am personally finding it harder to make my money and then everything is costing more. What about Russia, China, and India? Those 3 are the big factors. Larry is optimistic and I hope he is right but Obama will raise the CAP Gains TAX as well as others to pay all the fools who took out the liar loans.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:15 PM on 07/05/2008
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" Rush is entertainment. He is not a formal economist and neither is Sean, Mike or the others you mentioned "

Like most of the people know the difference.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:49 PM on 07/05/2008
- Viper I'm a Fan of Viper 313 fans permalink

The tax cuts caused huge deficits which led to a 62% devalaution in the dollar. The money was invested over seas in low wage countries from those tax cuts and not in the U.S. as evidenced by the lack of job creation here.. we borrowed money to pay for those tax cuts that benefited our competitors (from them) and then when those plants were built, we sent 4 million mfg jobs from there to those places where the tax cut money went. We replaced those jobs with low wage service McJobs and governement emplyment soared.

We lowered the Cap gains 5% but ended up paying gains on nothing but currency translation which is more than a 100% cap gains tax in real constant dollars.. heck we paid taxes on "real" loses when you consider the effects of the devaluations , and again you dont get a higher real Cap Gain rate than that.

Who ever is elected must raise taxes thanks to the last 8 years or you get more currency devaluations and inflation.. which are worse than a tax given where the money flows to. Half of America's netwroth went POOF under BUSH.

Regards

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:59 PM on 07/05/2008
- twofish I'm a Fan of twofish 22 fans permalink

Please stop repeating the "Rush is entertainment" meme. Rush is a skilled propagandist. The "entertainment" (such as it is) is the sugar that helps his message go down. He admitted as much after the 2006 elections, when he griped out loud about having to carry water for the Republicans. Just cut it out.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:14 AM on 07/08/2008

Of course the economy's doing bad right now. This is the bust part of the boom and bust cycles created by intervention in markets.

Mises, anyone?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:31 PM on 07/05/2008
- olephart I'm a Fan of olephart 113 fans permalink

Remind us again what intervention took place in 1929 to cause that bust. After that, explain how intervention caused the panic of 1893.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:18 PM on 07/05/2008
- Rule Of Law I'm a Fan of Rule Of Law 161 fans permalink

Ole, for '29 the "intervention" I'd vote for would be the gaming of the market by the boys at Goldman-Sachs, and the too little too late response of the newly formed NWOB--New World Order Bank--as led by the FED. But I'd guess that Nate wouldn't concur with that, even thought the same players are running the same scam today.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:10 PM on 07/05/2008
- Viper I'm a Fan of Viper 313 fans permalink

We have been unregulated for the last 8 years... We got tax cuts that in the end produced no jobs.. the money went to low wage countries and built plants there, and then we lost 4 million MFG jobs tp the plants that were built with our tax cut dollars.. and we had to borrow to pay for those tax cuts from the countires that benefited from the tax cuts (we did not) and that resulted in a 62% devaluation of the dollar and aloss of half of our networth in 8 years, a decline in real wages.

Yes the crash of 1929 was caused by the Smote Hauly tarrifs (SP) as the repugs always claim when some one tries to end this free trade nightmare .. except those tarfffs were inacted in 1932. LOL...

Regards

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:37 PM on 07/05/2008

They used to call a "bust" a "panic". They were very short lived. While intervention may have had a negligible effect on in 1929, it certainly had an effect on how long it took the economy to recover.

Don't tell me we've been "unregulated" for 8 years. You think I don't know the dollar is losing value? Seriously. It's at least mostly the Fed to blame for that, and Bernanke with his ridiculous endless printing of money.

A panic can happen...but government interventions will either cause busts, or cause a panic to turn into a bust, recession, depression, etc.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:58 AM on 07/09/2008

Don't worry. All the happy talk will end as soon as the democrats are in control. Then the rightwing will blame all of our problems on "socialism."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:10 PM on 07/05/2008
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To quote Ronald "Morning in America" Reagan. "Facts are stupid things".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:44 PM on 07/05/2008
- telebob59 I'm a Fan of telebob59 14 fans permalink

The dimensions and scope of the situation are immense and could point to something unprecedented in the very near future. Even a neophyte such as myself can see the direction the wind is blowing and the ramifications a-coming. I just discussed many of the realities outlined here on July Fourth -- "independence" day -- with my CPA sister-in-law. I referred her then to Mr. Stewart and his insightful posts and shared this one with her just now. It's uncanny how the ideological never-say-recession cheereladers in the MSM persist in their qualifications; I heard the same kind of crap (with a little reality thrown in) during some analysis recently on NPR. Not that they're completely beyond reproach, but...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:49 AM on 07/05/2008
- dolphy I'm a Fan of dolphy 46 fans permalink

NPR people are controlled by their boss appointed by Bushco. I'm not surprised by them being one of the cheerleaders of this WH and the Iraq war.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:36 PM on 07/07/2008
- PATina I'm a Fan of PATina 255 fans permalink
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Don't hold your breath... they know the economy is crap... but they are making lots of money saying that it isn't.

What would you advise a typical American worker/consumer to do to prepare for the inevitable crash?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:48 AM on 07/05/2008
- Photofarm I'm a Fan of Photofarm 21 fans permalink

Sigh, why not go back and look at the economy in during the year 2000. It was showing problems, and possible recession, but not a peep out of the New York Times, NBC, ABC, or CBS news departments. Ever since George Bush took over, the economy has been bad etc etc.

There are some problems and slow downs, but their are also sectors that have never had it better.

So the real problem is that over the last 10 years, the press hasn't been accurate in reporting the economy, based on their political bias.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:37 AM on 07/05/2008

Please elucidate on "sectors that have never had it better".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:46 PM on 07/05/2008
- olephart I'm a Fan of olephart 113 fans permalink

Defense Companies, Government contractors, Attorneys working on foreclosures, companies specializing in outsourcing to China all the "usual suspects" of the Republican economy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:27 PM on 07/05/2008
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Mecenaries.
Merchants and Makers of products of death and destruction.
Oil executives.
Health care executives.
Hedge fund executives.

All doing very well, thank you.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 PM on 07/05/2008

Either you are too young to remember or so old your memory is gone, but in 2001, when Bush took over, one of the main things he, and the compliant media, did was to trash talk the economy. Things were so bad, because of Dem screw-ups of course, that massive tax cuts aimed at the wealthy were the only thing that could save us. How's that working out?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:18 PM on 07/05/2008

The tax cuts have brought record revenues, thank you.

The biggest problem we have is caused by the liberals and now ignored by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi -- energy.

We need to drill and drill now. We need a ten-year plan to convert to massive amounts of alternative fuels, including nuclear, wind, battery and ethanol.

As shown by the do-nothing policies of the democratic congress, the left only knows how to obstruct.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:41 PM on 07/05/2008
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Yeah, well, why not go back and look at the economy during the year 2000?

Using the Dow as a proxy, the Dow had risen from 3000 in 1992 to to 11,500, then down to 11,000.

During the last 7.5 years, the Dow has risen from about 10,900 to a current 11,288, not adjusted for inflation, population growth, dollar deflation or the longest peacetime expansion ever.

Bondad has similar charts on the S&P 500, employment, income redistribution, etc. etc. etc.

Yeah, I am so totally sure "the real problem is that over the last 10 years, the press hasn't been accurate in reporting the economy, based on their political bias."

BTW, the liberal press does not do a very good job of reporting various types of accumulated debt, either.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:04 PM on 07/05/2008
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