Honeymoon

The Electoral College hasn't even met yet, but already political speculation has shifted from who won the election to how long President-elect Barack Obama's honeymoon will last. That's a good question.

The honeymoon may be sweet, but it won't last for President-elect Obama's whole first term.

Ten of our last eleven leaders ended their terms with lower approval ratings than they achieved at the beginning of their presidencies. Half of them left office with dramatically lower numbers.

Exceptionally, President Franklin Roosevelt (and he died in office) ended with significantly higher approval ratings than when Gallup first started tracking the numbers early in his second term.

After winning the presidency --- without winning the popular vote and with the Florida results in doubt ---George W. Bush never had much of a honeymoon in the first place.

Earlier this year, after a particularly bad week in Iraq and on the domestic economy, President Bush received the lowest approval rating level of all time with only 19% favoring his performance. In fact, he is likely to leave office this January with a record low departure-approval level. But we forget that it was also President George W. Bush who hit the highest approval levels of any President ever at 92% right after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The best chef can't make a soufflé rise twice but presidential approval ratings can and do go up and down. However, aside from the short-term positive halo effect when a President successfully handles a crisis, Presidential approval ratings rarely get back to the lofty honeymoon levels.

This may be especially so this time around.

Right now, many of those that only yesterday were knocking Barack Obama as a inexperienced, unprepared, elite socialist, or an out of the mainstream far left liberal are now trying to make nice. Before too long, those same people will be back to attacking Obama.

President-elect Obama ran a campaign with an underlying message which --- when said at the right time and at the right place --- may be the three most powerful words in American politics. No, those words are not "Yes, we can." Instead, the three most powerful words are often "I'm not him."

This year those words were so powerful and effective they really worked twice for our new President.

The "I'm not him," message worked this year for Barack Obama meaning he wasn't George W. Bush. A slight derivative of the message also worked for Obama in the Democratic nomination contest: "I'm not her".

The same message worked in 1976 when Jimmy Carter said he wasn't Richard Nixon. Four years later, Ronald Reagan won saying he wasn't Jimmy Carter. It worked again in 1992 when Bill Clinton said he wasn't President George Herbert Walker Bush.

It also worked for Thomas Jefferson when he said he wasn't John Adams.

The bad news for President-elect Obama is that sooner or later it is President Obama who will be "him". When that day comes, the lens through which Americans perceive President Obama will change dramatically. He will go from getting the benefit of the doubt to getting raked over the coals.

The change will be barely perceptible as it is happening, but once it happens President Obama's honeymoon approval ratings will fade, the political opposition will be emboldened and it will be much harder to get anything done.

The fingers which were pointing at him (George W. Bush) will be pointing at the new him (President Obama). He then will be the symbol of the dreaded status quo.

During campaigns, Presidential candidates tend to get judged when people compare them to their opponent or to the incumbent President. Then, once in office, presidents get compared at the beginning of their terms to the immediately prior White House occupant. As time goes on, they get compared to an idealized standard.

In Barack Obama's case, the reality of President Obama will get compared to the hope of President Obama. He is likely to get compared to the idealized standard of himself he helped many voters create this year. Since President-elect Obama is still not that well known, President Bush is so unpopular, and things across the country are so tough and dreary, many Americans have projected their dream presidential visions onto Obama. Over time, it is not possible for any President --- even Barack Obama --- to meet those expectations.

With the Democrats controlling both Houses of Congress, there will be no one else to blame as the image of the Bush Presidency recedes in the public consciousness. As General Powell's "Pottery Barn Theory" explains---if you break it, you own it. President Obama and the Democrats have broken the Republican hold on the White House and, starting in January, they will own Washington. They have a lot to fix.

My wife and I ran into a hurricane on our honeymoon. President Obama should try to enjoy his while it lasts and try to get as much done as quickly as he can.

Comments

[Stella818]

Very good points. Look back at all the euphoria from Democrats when Clinton won. He was going to fix everything including healthcare. His honeymoon lasted how long? Mr. Morris is right. Barack better get to work and not bask too much in the glow.

[alwaysacynic001]

Thanks Hank - well said. No doubt that the Obama administration has already taken this to heart, and will act fast and furiously.

[bsquared2131]

Morris hit it on the head here. With virtually no Republicans around, the pressure is on for Obama and the Democrats to right the ship. Americans have little patience, and campaign 2010 is already underway.

[Pratt53]

A reality check filled with insight and historical perspective. Always interesting to get the point of view from a real professional.