Putin's Lesson

When George W. Bush famously said after his first meeting with Vladimir Putin, "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul," my assumption was that there was a deeper meaning: they spoke as oil man to oil man. Maybe I was being charitable.

Ron Suskind in his new book The Way of the World suggests instead that Bush was speaking
candidly and naively, ignoring the advice of CIA briefers that KGB veteran Putin viewed his job as "seeming like your friend". Seven years later, we know at least what was in Putin's mind. As he watched the United States plunge into two wars, tying up our military might in the Middle East, Putin saw a power vacuum in his neighborhood. Using his oil and gas resources to pressure his neighbors, the Russian leader (President-turned-prime-minister) was playing old-fashioned power politics while his "friend" Bush was trying to remake Arabia.

Now, with Russian troops in the breakaway province of South Ossetia, conservatives (Bill Kristol in the NYT, John McCain on the campaign trail) are calling back memories of 1938 and 1924 -- small European countries calling out in vain for Western help in fending off savage attacks. But what Putin seems to be asking is whether, in fact, the memories being called back are 1919 and 1920 -- when the victorious West humbled a defeated Germany, while breaking up an old empire and (thanks to the British skill at drawing lines on maps) inventing new nations (see, e.g., Iraq). Many nationalities were promised their own countries. Most got them.

So, after the US encouraged the breakup of Serb-controlled Yugoslavia when Russia was weak and humbled, Putin now asserts the notion that the process should continue, and more nationalities -- the Ossetians, the Abkhazis -- deserve self-determination, especially if they want to rejoin the Russian state. And we, obsessed and tied down, are unable to do anything but issue strong statements from Beijing and the secure undisclosed vice presidency.

Watching from the sidelines with interest must be the leaders of the nationality that was promised but didn't get its own country after World War One -- the Kurds. Putin appears to be simultaneously asserting power in his own neighborhood and throwing gasoline-soaked rags into the one we're bogged down in.

This administration came into power saying "the grownups are in charge." But the "grownups" saw Iraq in an ahistorical, ageopolitical prism. Paul Wolfowitz famously testified that Iraq had no history of ethnic conflict. He had it exactly backwards: ethnic conflict had a far longer history in that region that did the concept of "Iraq". Then-National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice didn't publicly correct him.

Perhaps because the part of the world where she had her academic expertise was Russia.

Comments

[SamH]

There really are no limits to Harry Shearer's areas of expertise, are there?

[americandusk]

Okay maybe some people can help me out. So, Georgia is at fault for trying to taking military action against a rebel mob organization speaking out of two mouths, that was inevitably, military action or not, going to allie with Russia?

Again, I guess this makes it okay for Mexico to hand out passports to San Diegans and post an invasion to take over South California just because there are diplomatically unreasonable gang mobs in the area with some Mexican influence? That is... pretty much what just happened. America shouldn't protect their territory preemptively in that case I suppose?

Seems like the Cold War never ended. Cold War 2. Except, now Iran may have nuclear weapons, which according to some commenters, makes them a superpower. Unfortunately, it appears as if the news reports coming from the Caucus just re-affirm why Russia shouldn't be part of the G8. "Labor turns even monkeys into humans"? What, is all of Georgia their Abu Ghraib prison now? Doesn't sound civilized to me. Sounds like Russia bringing in the curtain again. If the US were just like Russia, there would be about half the population in Iraq that there is now, and we would be feared for all the wrong reasons.

Oh, and openly telling Poland they are open to a nuclear attack? Hmm... "all options are on the table" or "yes, they have opened themselves up for an attack, even nuclear, 100%"... which goverment is more civilized and diplomatic? Wow...

[iratior]

Questions such as you raise in your post do indeed deserve answers, not that you may like what you read. First of all, the government of Georgia did indeed do something wrong when it cracked down on God knows what -- the effectively pro-Bush news media won't say, precisely. I take your analogy to American crackdowns on Mexican-influenced mobs thus: yes, such crackdowns are wrong, because I'm sure that Mexican-influenced mobs could do a better job for California than Duncan Hunter, Dan Lungren, Dana Rohrbacher, or any of the other poster-children for 1984. Second, it does seem like a new cold war is brewing, except this one seems more interesting because not just Russia but also all the Muslims Bush has antagonized must be dealt with. Sure, throw Russians out of the G8; then see how much cooperation you get from them when it comes time to contain Iran, or keep a lid on oil prices. Third, as a taxpayer I really must question the priorities implicit in spending hundreds of billions of dollars for a functionally dubious missile defense of Poland, when fifty million Americans don't have health insurance. Forty years of mostly Republican rule has brought the state of civil liberties, income distribution, infrastructure, and environmental quality to the point of scorched ruin; it's time to abandon the anti-Muslim anti-communist paranoid foreign policy and mind the store.

[FlyingEagel]

Whether we like it or not . .there is nothing we can do about Russia invading Georgia. Just like Russia and every other Country could not stop us from invading IRAQ. Russia is a Super Power! People who say Russia is not are underestimating this country. China is also a Super Power. Unless we are ready to start WWIII . .. All 3 of us ( USA, CHINA, RUSSIA ) will do as we please.

[LightningJoe]

Russia is NOT a superpower. They ARE a major power, and a major power with nukes, at that, but at this point have basically an amature military, albeit a BIG amature military.

The problem is, we aren't a superpower either now; except in terms of air power and sea-power, neither of which is a complete solution to a real problem like buttressing allies overseas.

Russia would back down at even at this point, if we took convincing actions to remedy this situation. The problem is not that they wouldn't -- it's that WE won't.

What we won't do: Pull troops out of Iraq (who cares about Iraq, in the face of the advent of a new Russian sweep through our allies?). Bring back the draft YESTERDAY, and ship new troops to Georgia in WEEKS, as we did in WWII. Move so fast on this, that our own shocked media will carry the implicit message to Russia that there's a new game in town. Airlift into Georgia a brand new state-of-the-art air cap capability, that the Russians can't match. Leapfrog the NATO admission process to admit Georgia NOW, on an emergency basis. Don't answer Putin's calls.

If we had almost any other Commander in Chief, we might be able to pull something like this off, but I'm afraid it was Putin who looked into Bush's soul, not the other way 'round.

[MagisterLudi]

Postcard from Earth: "Wish you were here."

[bfraser55]

Do we have any logistics in Russia??? Do we really think they cannot mobilze their troops. Who the hell do we think we are???Russia is right on the border we are thousands of miles away. Our troops are exhauted from an unnecessary in Iraq. A troubling and increasing war in Afghanastan, Pakistan boiling up, peacekeepers through out the world. How are we going to get man power there yesterday???This is not Stargate SG1 there are no gates to get us across large expanses instantly. The world is going nuts.

[rgblue]

You need to adjust to the realities of the 21st century. You're dreaming.

[americandusk]

Don't mind the other comments. They forget what WW2 was like.

[LiamR]

In summation, being leader of the free world is a bit more complex than we thought it was when we allowed the Supreme Court and (four years later) Ohio's Secretary of State to assign the position to someone with marginal qualifications.

As we move along towards yet another presidential "election," it should be apparent to every American that the occupant of the White House needs to be a quick study and a critical thinker...and honest. Saber rattling might be an effective stunt for political campaigns, but it does nothing toward solving international conflicts. It's time to elevate our collective consciousness and elect a president who is capable of adept diplomacy and able to execute effective policies both domestically and abroad.

[elan4444]

And what will be Obama's response to Russia? Will he take tea with the Russian President and his not-so-second in command? Teddy Roosevelt gave us good advice when he made the famous remark "walk softly and carry a big stick." Taking tea with Medvedev and Putin could be dangerous, considering the polonium incident that killed one of their former agents in London. Speaking out has its hazards as well, as journalist Anna Politkovskaya found her life endangered and was eventually assassianated outside her apartment. Kasparov was firmly discouraged against running as a candidate in the most recent presidential election there. The chance for glasnost has evaporated, the elder Bush did not act on that opportunity as he should have. Now we're in a quandry, having deployed our troops to Iraq, leaving other fires untended lest we become overextended, or have to reinstate the draft. More and more, it's all about who has the money, and right now it is Russia, with 76 billionaires in Moscow alone. Economic standing? It's China, Russia, and Japan in the first second, and third GNP spots. The U.S.? Eleventh. It's a sad day when we encourage fledgling republics only to let them spin slowly in the wind. The photo of Saakashvili being covered by his bodyguards as Russian planes strafed nearby was an amazing statement in today's NY Times.

[Harod]

Wether we are over extended or not if we were to kick the Russians with a Dessert Storm type operation they are going to kick us back and it will hurt. This is best resolved with diplomacy and arming Georgia and the Ukraine to defend themsleves. Expelling Russia with a multi-national coalition must be a last resort after everything else has failed..

[elan4444]

That's the walking softly part.

[Harod]

Maybe if Clinton had been more interested in catching Osama and enforcing the cease fire agreement maybe we wouldnt be so tied down today. But at this point I dont think the finger pointing woulda shouda coulda's are going to get us anywhere we have to be ready to fight fascism and protect freedom in the world..

[Harry Shearer - Huffpost Blogger]

No, you're right, Bush has been much more interested in catching Osama. That much is obvious.

[Harod]

Great article thank you for your reply :)

[ankjack]

While I appreciate Mr. Shearer's observations, what seems to be missing is a pointed discussion of who started all this ruckus in South Ossetia in the first place. Though it's been carefully buried between the lines of anti-Russ, Western propaganda, there is no denying that the young Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili brought this whole affair on himself when he assumed that his Western friends were backing his play. Vladimir Putin isn't up against George H.W. Bush's formidable foreign policy, Kissenger's political prowess or the rhetorical Reagan. He simply shoved a Georgian neophyte's head in the toilet with George W. Bush impotently standing back, saying, "Hey, stop that!" What Bush and Co. could stand to learn from Prime Minister Putin is how a "superpower" SHOULD act in a potentially hostile situation.

Talk soft and carry a big stick.

[Hare]

Could not agree more, the observations he makes are based mostly on brainwashed propaganda; the "us versus them" cold era mentality that is so deeply ingrained in the U.S. mind. Russia went in after S Ossetia ask them to, for it seems the Georgian military was doing a Sudan act on the people there. The S. Ossetian refugees in Russia seem truly thankful for their intervention unlike the "Arabians" with us.

[americandusk]

If you look into the history, the S. Ossetians don't care for Russians either. But it is the lesser of two evils. So... you have a rebel faction that doesn't want to be a state in a Georgian republic, nor a state of Russia, but they would rather play on the winning team if there are only 2 choices. Too bad the libs aren't taking the time to see that.

[Harod]

The excuse the Russians used is just like the excuse the Soviets used to invade Afganistan which makes me think they are trying to rebuild the Iron Curtain.

[elan4444]

Hey, no plagarism intended, I hadn't read your comment when I posted.

[mjc]

ankjack, that is the point that the Russian ambassador to US has been making over and over. Apparently Georgia's Premier did expect to get American help as he already had some coming his way before Georgia moved on So. Ossetia but he played the fool if he didn't know that the Russians were going to use any and all excuses to derail Georgia, break down its infrastructure and show them what a REAL military could do. But we on the other hand cannot allow Russia to continue to occupy areas of Georgia. We do have tools: NATO membership, cooperation with Russians in other areas of the world, American investments and American markets. If only Bush knows how to use them.

[americandusk]

Real military? I don't see Russia in Iraq. And I didn't recall Russia being successful in Afganistan. Hmm... maybe insurgent warfare is hard on modern military forces alike. Too bad we're doing a heck of a lot better in Iraq than Russia ever hoped to in Afganistan.

[longtimeamericalover]

It's a good thing you used your sensitivity toward comedy in the first part of your life. Not too many laughs to be had now when your observations and sensibilities are so acute. and things in the United States so dark. It's like no-one learned the lesson of OZ. there are no superpowers only flying monkeys and small men behind curtains manipulating us with smoke and mirrors. What fools we mortals be.
I am not by nature a 'fan' but have long appreciated and respected your perspective and laughed a lot which I value highly.
Please keep using your podium. As another, better, George - (Bernard Shaw) said "Common sense is so rare as to often be mistaken for genius".

[FOXYLADY]

I'm sure Putnin just 'tolerates' Bush and laughs at him as a fool most of the time. Not only is Bush inept but a fool if he things any other world leader actually respects him. His trips around the world only emphasises that fact. While in Saudi he 'swayed' to the music while all the rich Saudi men stood back watching..­.......pro­bably thinking how much of an embarrassment he was to them.....but not as much as he was and is to me.........an elderly American citizen who has seen them come and go.......

[Troubledgoodangel]

World must be accepted for hat it is: dangerous and once again, dangerous. The idea that Russia has shed her imperial stripes is illusion. All empires throughout history have fed on carcass, human carcass. That's why we have eagles ans bears. Russia will be Russia, a country that can only be restrained by force. This is unrealistic in the atomic era. Which is why we need the world to unite in a common effort to force the hand of the imperialistic Russia, or she will force our hand.

[Hare]

Russia went there because Georgia was killing the South Ossetia population in order to get the land to bring the pipe lines for oil to the sea and make money, the small country and its people were on their way so like in Sudan they were exterminating them. Georgia did not foresee that Russia was not going to seat there and do nothing. it was their mistake because papa Bear came to the rescue of little cub... If only those in Sudan could have been as fortunate.

[Tulka2]

I was shamed. My face actually turned red as i watched Putin "playing" Bush at the games. Bush reported he was being "firm" with Putin. What a farce. Putin went to China, plan in hand. He soothed the Texas idiot into thinking he was somehow influencing Russia as Russia stomped in Georgia. Bush was oblivious to the event's import.

You know....? I actually see the reasoning that Russia has just as much a right to their own "Monroe Doctrine". I find myself surprised to agree with old Pat Buchanan on this point. But... the bit that makes me red as a beet is to have such a fool as our head of state, actually imagining he has influence with Putin. And Putin nodding to him and placating him. What a fool! In my name and with my tax money and in China of all places to lose face. Yikes.

[MagisterLudi]

It was actually Bush that was trying to play Putin. Bush pretended that he knew nothing about Georgian surprise attack. He then asked Putin to refrain from attacking so that Georgians would have time to consolidate their hold on Ossetia. Well, Bush lost that match. 40-love.

[Artos]

Most of Bushs pretenses are aimed not at the foreigners, but at us. He needs to convince us at every turn that he is worthy of his job (which of course he isn't). The importance of that at this point is to firstly insure his "Legacy" and secondly to insure that Republicans are viewed favorably so that they get reelected in the next elections.If they can get enough of their minions reelected then their secret plans for our future can proceed unimpeded.

[FOXYLADY]

TULKA2.....JUST AS I SAID.......BUSH IS A TOTAL EMBARRASSMENT TO THE UNITED STATES.
YOUR POST HITS THE NAIL ON THE HEAD AND I 'KNOW' SO MANY AMERICAN CITIZENS THINK AS WE DO. IT WOULD BE BEST FOR OUR COUNTRY IF GEORGE W. BUSH JUST FADED INTO THE SUNSET WITH HIS JOHN WAYNE WALK AND HIS ARMS READY TO DRAW.....

[EngineerBill]

"So, after the US encouraged the breakup of Serb-controlled Yugoslavia when Russia was weak and humbled, Putin now asserts the notion that the process should continue, and more nationalities -- the Ossetians, the Abkhazis -- deserve self-determination, especially if they want to rejoin the Russian state."
Harry, with all due respect George H. W. Bush did not encourage Yugoslavia's break up. In fact he tried (ineffectively) to slow it down if not prevent it. I'm no Republican but fair is fair.
Oh and commenter pulemerci, if you think a Hizbollah, Hamas and Iran being stronger than ever after five years of war in Iraq as better than a stained dress, then you are the only one.

[Harry Shearer - Huffpost Blogger]

I didn't say GHWB encouraged the breakup of Yugoslavia. That happened during the Clinton administration....

[FOXYLADY]

AAAMEN, AAAMEN, AAMMEENNN, AAAMEN ENGINEER

[lisakaz2]

I think where you get confused is that Kosovo's effort to separate from Serbia was after the breakup of Yugoslavia into Croatia, Slovenia, etc.

[Troubledgoodangel]

I agree with Harry. President Bush, and Condi Rice, made a fatal mistake of not leaving 51 percent of Kosovo to the Serbs! A child can see that! I am not a Democrat, but I will always call spade a spade!

[MagisterLudi]

Both libs and cons indulge in American Imperialist perspective. Only the labels are different. Deep down they arrogantly believe that Americans ideals ( neocon OR lib.) are the best and most benevolent.
Hence Georgian aggression is also OK. Because they had a democratic election. Now they also have an American corporate lawyer running their country! Just like here. Hurrah for new democracy.

Same for Chinese-- how dare they combine economic freedom with socialist governance. This is so un-American. We must teach:
A. these godless commies ( neocons);
B. these freedom hating oppressors ( libs).

[randomx6]

Oh stop. Your team has been planning this invasion of Georgia for months. A two front war with massive infantry into a sovereign country? Not unless the KGB has been planning this for months and inciting a Georgian response. No doubt Puking got what he wanted but please can the fiction that Georgia is the aggressor here.

[MilwaukeeDan]

MagisterLudi, right again.

[Adamwestiii]

Humm, Old wrinkleface white haired dude speaking out that Russia violated International Law by invading Georgia. See how money talks! Whitey has a lobbyist in Georgia I believe donated something like 900K to his Presidential campaign! Why didn't he mention that it was Georgia who wrongfully and initially invaded Ossetia whose people identify with Russia over Georgia and have Russian Passports! The CIA admitted training the soldiers of Georgia, and of course Israel had to get involved by helping out and selling arms to Georgia. I believe the US & Georgia held military exercise just prior to the invasion and one can see it backfired and now you hear the President of Georgia screaming how rotten Russia is as it keeps attacking.
Isn't the US trying to establish bases surrounding Russia? I believe Russia has the right to protect its people regardless of where they are living.
The US wants the Russian Navy out of the Ukraine, and I don't believe they will succeed as the people of Ukraine have spoken they are happy with the Navy being there.

One last thing, that whitehaired dude complaining about Russia's invasion - I think our government has done much better, let's see, Panama, Granada, & Iraq just to name a few! So far, we are leading Russia in the invasion field!

[FOXYLADY]

ADAM.....TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH.....­......WE'V­E STUCK OUR NOSES INTO TOO MANY OTHER COUNTRIES BUSINESS..­..........­AND ONLY BECAUSE OF OIL, BIG BUSINESS AND THE GAINS OUR OWN CROOKED POLITICIANS CAN MAKE

[norkas]

Pres. Bush has lied about the war in Iraq if the information is correct in Ron Suskinds book and Cheny was part of it.

If the information is true and the Democrats do nothing about it then they are just as bad and even worse are causing a dictatorship in the U.S.A.

In the past years there has been a trade off between Republicans and Democrats to do nothing when they commit crimes or injustice

This is a very dangerous time for our country and we must PROTEST so our polticians understand NO more trade offs for crimes they have commited.

Republicans are joining the Democrats in large numbers to vote for Obama the press did release a story about it today. I knew this ahead of time because most of my Republican friends are voting for Obama not out of protest but because they want a real change and the Republican leaders care nothing about HUMANITY.

Bush going into Iraq and making sure Russia lost all of its oil contracts there was greeted with a very nice present. A nuclear reactor in IRAN and we did not do a damn thing to prevent it. Yes we could of done allot of things such as making sure there contracts were kept and Iran never would of had the reactor.

[americandusk]

Wait, wrongfully invaded South Ossetia? A rebel faction that would not diplomatically cooperate? Huh.... So i presume it will be okay for Mexico to start handing out passports to San Diegans and then stage an "invasion" and take South California as its own, just because there are so many diplomatically uncooperative gang mobs in the area? Wow... that logic is totally lost on me.

[HillWilliam]

Power vacuum my patoot. Blackwater have had over 20,000 "troops" in Azerbaijan nearly since the start of the invasion of Iraq with Cheney's full knowledge and blessing. Russia's invasion was a direct letter addressed to the Dark Lord himself, no more and no less. If our Congress isn't willing to impeach and remove by dint of law, apparently Russia will by dint of force. That should have sobered anyone up, no matter how drenched in koolade. That illegal and unconstituional private militia of Cheney's and Prinz's suddenly seems mighty mighty small. But the right wing and spineless in Congress will continue with the Cleopatra act, right off the edge of their flat earth. One would hope the rest of us will have the courage to stop the madness and the wit not to follow them.

[dugan45]

What I see and participate in is voting out House and Senate Dems who agree with and cave to the conservatives and neocons at the expense of our nation. The vehicle for that lies in PDA, Progressive Democrats of America at https://www.thedatabank.com/dpg/309/donate.asp?formid=donate (where you can donate) and http://pdamerica.org/index.php (PDA's home page). Not only must we unseat conservatives, but Democrats as well who work against higher moral values. Another organization is moveon.org, which is currently soliciting conributions to further enabele its already successful operation to sign on young voters, who, by the way, understand more fully than older voters the price we will pay unless we take to the ballot box. But we must contribute financially to organizations who are driving the change machine if we want to be successful. Money from America's citizenry and voting in November and every election cycle after that can make a difference. You want to do something? Then do use vehicles already out there to stop the madness.

[HillWilliam]

You betcha!! We've got to BE the change. PDA is just one fine avenue. I appreciate the rejoinder and the suggestion to those who might not have known of them. However one chooses to participate, it is _necessary­_to_partic­ipate_. Democracy isn't for sideliners nor for the timid. It's a hands-on job and it takes all hands. Well spoke, Dugan45.

[FOXYLADY]

THANKS FOR THE LINK.......you are never to old to learn and with this current election this old woman is learning more than ever!!!!!!!!!!

[susang]

Exactly right, Harry. Reminds me of how Reagan decided to launch his illegal war in Nicaragua while the Soviets were stuck in their own quagmire in Afghanistan.