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Harry Shearer

Harry Shearer

Posted: November 30, 2009 04:57 PM

Was The Surge Just A Fig Leaf?

What's Your Reaction?

As the stage is being set for an “AfPak Surge,” it might be time to take a look at Surge 1.0, in the now-forgotten war (the one we barged into when we forgot the Afghan War, which we’re now remembering), the one in Iraq.  What we’ve been told incessantly, especially by Republicans, is that “the surge worked.”  What exactly does that mean?

Let’s look at it for a moment with a cynical eye, the one possessed by politicians and satirists alike.  The surge encompassed a rapid infusion of American troops, simultaneously accompanied by a short-term program of paying off Sunni insurgents to switch sides.  What was supposed to happen was that the job of paying off the Sunnis would eventually transfer to the Shiite government, which would enroll the former insurgents in the national army and police.  Meanwhile, peace would ensue, and we could withdraw.

What we’ve known for some time is that the Iraqi government wasn’t keeping up its end of the deal, that is, it was refusing to integrate the Sunnis into national forces.  Now comes a report from the Sunday Times of London (owned by Rupert Murdoch) that says the southern city of Basra, famously cleaned up by a government surge last year, is now experiencing the return of militia members, who spent the intervening months chilling in Iran.  The result: targeted killings of people, like translators, who worked with the British (who centered their operations in Basra).  

So what was the real purpose of the surge, the real success?   To act as a convenient fig leaf to cover our withdrawal of troops, perhaps?  And leaving the following administration to reap the political splashback if renewed chaos ensues?

Would that be the real nature of the plan President Obama is announcing this week, Surgeleaf 2.0?

 

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ThePeacemakers
Concerned Citizen
05:04 PM on 12/01/2009
Well, then the next admin can say this admin "took their eye off the ball" in Iraq and RESURGE. Might not have to wait for a next admin.

That's the sucker game for Americans.

Wake up anytime, people.
02:07 PM on 12/01/2009
The cost of the unnecessary Iraqi war was too high. In that sense it was a Pyrrhic victory.
But the neo-fascist Hussein regime is gone and the foreign and domestic Jihadists were defeated by Iraqis with American assist.
Now Iraqis can try to build their future. I am hopeful. Iraqi (surprisingly) turned out to be mature enough to oust the baathists and Jihadists (foreign and domestic) out of their communities. The road ahead is difficult but there's hope based on present situation. Iraqis now need support, not gloating and immature sniping over setbacks. U.S should leave now, but ONLY after securing some political deal between competing interests ( Sunni, Kurds,Shia).
01:51 PM on 12/01/2009
All that surge stuff was just another can of hooey foisted on the American public by the buffoons in W's administration. For years they said there were plenty of troops to get the job done then finally even W woke up realized his was of choice was being horribly mismanaged and he got rid of Rumsfeld. Then he sang a totally different tune about how necessary the surge was. The sad reality is unless we want to keep the surge going indefinately violence will increase. Now we are going dwn the same tired path in Afghanistan.
12:47 PM on 12/01/2009
Success is defined by goals you had at the beginnng. If the Iraq war is to be called a "win", it must meet the criteria originally set up for it by the Bush Admin. That was: find wmds. Be greeted as liberators. Keep within the quoted budget. (Nevermind the real motives: oil and power).

When all three of those objectives failed, and even worse things (looting, a budget fiasco for the US, a guerilla warfare/jihadi recruitment boost, the US reputation loss after Abu Graib /the "fixing of facts" were exposed, the wholesale killing of innocents, etc) took place, Bush then moved to goalposts to "spreading democracy" and "the surge will contain the insurgents" and "fight them there not here".. (Nevermind one real motive: give ignorant Americans a newsfeed that says "we're winning, and now we can leave" and then dump it on O.).

So did the surge "work"? It may have slightly decreased insurgency action. (For a few months) But killings and bombs are still happening, our soliders are still getting killed, there is massive corruption, Bin Laden is still around, the Iraqi government is not really in control or a functioning democracy, and the region is still unstable (in a way it wasn't before).

So let's be honest: the US did not win the Iraqi war. I say this not to denigrate the troops or to weaken our current resolve; hopefully admitting the truth may lead us to better choices in the future.
12:39 PM on 12/01/2009
Bush was a limited man. His éminence grise was in many ways evil. But to attack everything that happened on their watch is primitivism of the worst kind.
The fact is that a significant victory was won with the surge.
Was surge the cause or coincidence can be debated. But those who discount it just because it happened on the Cheney's watch indulge in political naivete.And forfeit the entitlement to the
proud term of a progressive.
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Harry Shearer
01:31 PM on 12/01/2009
I believe you're the commenter who accused me of "gloating" over the return of the milita members to Basra. I'd cite a more appropriate example of gloating: "Mission Accomplished".
01:57 PM on 12/01/2009
Both are examples thereof.
I am very happy that the surge, U,.S. policies and Sunni allinace worked to bring some semblance of peace to Iraqis.
Furthermore. it is is logically inconsistent to assume that people who are supportive of surge and other successes in Iraq are automatically supporters of the war and/or Bush/Cheney cabal.
Bush was wrong to invade Iraq. But it very, very wrong to leave Iraq in 2005. I am glad Americans had enough wisdom not to do it. Now the conditions for exiting Iraq are seem much, much better;. time to leave and focus on Afpak. ]
Sorry if this is too complex.
02:14 PM on 12/01/2009
"Gloat - An act or instance of gloating; To exhibit a conspicuous sense of self-satisfaction, often at an adversary's misfortune."
Case confirmed.
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01:56 PM on 12/01/2009
Nice try. And you see us as progressing towards what, exactly? Over a million dead, four million displaced-kind of sounds like the futuristic world you yearn to be in, blade runner. The term 'progressive' has no inherent value-to play this kind of word game is strategically digressive.
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WhoneedsGoverment
And the horse you rode in on...
11:22 AM on 12/01/2009
The DOD bailout is working
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11:42 AM on 12/01/2009
the military industrial complex is alive and well
11:21 AM on 12/01/2009
If you've ever landed a big fish on the deck of a boat and watched it flip/flop all over the place in utter confusion and frustration, you've got a visual of American military/government so-called management of our latest two non-wars.

(George Carlin (he's sorely missed), on noting the epithet, 'freedom-fighters' , to describe American military personnel out to save the world from itself - and thereby free it to donate itself to American interests, wondered if freedom-fighters had any connection to fire-fighters or crime-fighters. If so, he concluded, all nations of the world were potentially in grave danger.)
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11:06 AM on 12/01/2009
america doesnt have the attention span to focus on two wars at once.

play stonehenge!
10:07 AM on 12/01/2009
Like Harry, I too am saddened that the surge so obviously worked. After calling for immediate withdrawal and leaving Iraq to be split between al Qaeda and Iran, when Bush dug in and won the damn thing, that made our side (Harry Reid "The war is lost") look pretty bad. But we can at least high tail it out of Afghanistan. Remember, our President got elected because he went to the left of Hillary and Americans went for it. You can never be too progressive.
10:44 AM on 12/01/2009
What flavor is that Kool Aid anyway?
11:06 AM on 12/01/2009
Yeah realcobra- what are you talking about. GWB won the thing?? When did we win in Iraq? Better question is what did we win?? If Sadaam Hussien was still there Iran would be neutralized and we'd never have spent 200 billion and wasted the lives of 4000 service men and women. But then again Cheney wouldn't have made another 200 million and oil never wouldh have spiked, the dollar would be stronger and our economy would be in better straits. Iraq was the biggest foriegn policy mistake any president has made in 30 years.

Clinton beat herself by running a bad campaign. To the dismay of many Obama is a centrist not a progressive. It's interesting how people choose to rewrite history.
12:49 PM on 12/01/2009
Success is defined by goals you had at the beginnng. If the Iraq war is to be called a "win", it must meet the criteria originally set up for it by the Bush Admin. That was: find wmds. Be greeted as liberators. Keep within the quoted budget. (Nevermind the real motives: oil and power).

When all three of those objectives failed, and even worse things (looting, a budget fiasco for the US, a guerilla warfare/jihadi recruitment boost, the US reputation loss after Abu Graib /the "fixing of facts" were exposed, the wholesale killing of innocents, etc) took place, Bush then moved to goalposts to "spreading democracy" and "the surge will contain the insurgents" and "fight them there not here".. (Nevermind one real motive: give ignorant Americans a newsfeed that says "we're winning, and now we can leave" and then dump it on O.).

So did the surge "work"? It may have slightly decreased insurgency action. (For a few months) But killings and bombs are still happening, our soliders are still getting killed, there is massive corruption, Bin Laden is still around, the Iraqi government is not really in control or a functioning democracy, and the region is still unstable (in a way it wasn't before).

So let's be honest: the US did not win the Iraqi war. I say this not to denigrate the troops or to weaken our current resolve; hopefully admitting the truth may lead us to better choices in the future.
10:07 AM on 12/01/2009
Guerrilla fighters, who have had great success against conventional armies for hundreds of years, know what George Washington knew. He knew he didn't have to win. He only had to not lose. What do you believe Mullah Omar or any Afghan warlord thinks?
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Keith Stern
Writer, Webmaster
09:54 AM on 12/01/2009
Getting Rumsfeld out of the picture was the biggest factor in the success of the coincidental surge.
12:40 PM on 12/01/2009
Agreed.
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Soulsurfer
Solar Electrician,Longtime Surfin'Fool
09:02 AM on 12/01/2009
What worked so well in Surge 1.0 was paying off the Sunni insurgents not to attack us, and give them jobs. Build schools, hospitals, a little water and transport infrastructure, instead of killing people, they may stop killing us. And get out of their country asap.
08:22 AM on 12/01/2009
Maybe, but given the reality before and after the surge, it seems like a really good deal, at least relative to another few hundred dead Americans.

As much as I was against everything the Bush administration stood for, especially the Iraq war, the surge (and whatever went on behind the scenes) was incredibly successful in its primary goal of reducing violence.

I don't know if it's a sustainable peace, and I don't know if it can be duplicated in Afghanistan. I would prefer that we end our involvement in both places. But if we're going to be there, the success of 1.0 does seem to justify the investment in 2.0. I support a graduated war surtax to pay for the escalation and will be disappointed if Obama is against that surtax.
08:40 AM on 12/01/2009
All anyone had to do was listen (with an objective ear, which seems impossible these days), to Keith Olbermann's "Special Comment" last nite. He was spot on.
I have lost all confidence in this president. We are STILL in Iraq and now he doesn't even mention it. We are adding forces in Afghanistan (for WHAT????) He needs to get the guts to tell these war-mongers the American people have had more than enough. We want OUT , of both Cheney/Bush wars, and we want out NOW. Not in 2 years, or three, or four, NOW!!!!!!!!!!
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09:10 AM on 12/01/2009
"I would prefer that we end our involvement in both places."


Try sticking with that thought.
07:44 AM on 12/01/2009
This is America--if we didn't escalate existing wars we would have to find new unnecessary ones to fight. Just look at the last hundred years of our history. "Winning" wars means simply fighting them to the military industrial complex, and their brainwashed Red State fan club. How many people die, how much money is wasted, and having a coherent exit strategy are as always completely irrelevant. If this were not the case we would not have needlessly invaded Iraq, or Vietnam. Its not like the American People have any say in this matter. Its already been decided by those who run our country behind the scenes
07:20 AM on 12/01/2009
The first surge began, I believe in spring, was supposed to take acoupl of months in to the summer, then to August, then to November, then to next spring and I don't remember anybody say it ever ended last extention I remembe was another three years of it.

And the bottom line is it didn't either win or end our invasion and occupation in Iraq.
There is no reason in the world that it will have any positive effect in Afganistan either.

A couple of hundred thousand more into each of our three might help but it won't win. We won't win as long as there is any native population.
07:47 AM on 12/01/2009
We are working hard at reducing that native population. Soon there will only be military personnel and pipline infrastructure left. Then we will invade somewhere else. Until then--relax--there is nothing we can do to stop it, since we the people are not in control. its all already been decided behind closed doors, and any President who doesn't go along with their agenda will suffer the same fate as JFK
08:55 AM on 12/01/2009
You are one of the few Americans that understand what these wars are all about and just who the American President takes his marching orders from. It was never about freedom and democracy, it was always about oil and pipelines. The US Military will be out of Iraq and Afganistan when the the oil industry says it can leave and not a moment sooner. Obama has no say in that matter.