Cracking the Autism Riddle: "Vaccine Theory" Fades as a New Idea Emerges

This is the first post in a series of three about autism and vaccines.

If a foreign government were suspected of doing something that caused brain problems to 1/166 American children our nation would immediately and vigorously respond...and even go to war! Well, our children are under a mysterious assault that is causing 1/166 to develop autism. And, we must band together and immediately and vigorously make the correction of this problem a true national priority.

As part of our national wake-up call, April was designated National Autism Awareness month and the press repeatedly aired an impassioned debate: Are vaccines a boon or a danger? Do shots protect kids or provoke autism? Unfortunately, all too often the media discussion was highly polarized...creating lots of heat, but shedding little light.

In this 3-part blog, I'd like to discuss in detail the reasons why shots are very safe - and super important - and to present some fresh ideas about a more likely cause of autism: an invisible soup of toxins we're exposed to every day...endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs).

* For more than 10 years, a steady chorus has accused vaccines of causing the autism outbreak: "Shots have too many ingredients." "Too many shots are given together." Some people think the connection is proven because baby shots have increased in number as the autism has increased in frequency.

The rise in autism is scary and all reasonable people should be desperate to solve this mystery. But, is the fact that we give more vaccines proof that they trigger the disorder...or is it a terrible coincidence?

History is filled with good guesses that just fell flat. For example, five years ago, many were convinced that mercury in vaccines was the autism culprit. It was a fair hunch...but ended up wrong. In 2002, over 95% of vaccine mercury was removed. Yet, instead of plummeting autism rates zoomed even higher!

Another popular hunch was that the MMR shot (measles, mumps, rubella) caused autism. But a huge Danish study (examining hundreds of thousands of children) found that kids skipping the MMR had the same exact risk of getting autism as those who were immunized. A Japanese study also showed zero difference between MMR getters and skippers (no benefit was seen even when the MMR was split into separate shots).

To date, dozens of studies -- examining over 1 million children -- have failed to find any credible association between shots and autism...none!

Yet, speculation that shots cause autism continues to stick in parents' minds. Why? One big reason is because we have all heard reports of kids suddenly "got" autism just a week or two after shots.

In fact, one of the scariest characteristics of autism is that it can suddenly afflict a child who seems developmentally normal. But, is it possible that this sudden problem right after shots is just a coincidence? Absolutely, yes! Every day, serious and amazing things occur, purely by chance. Think of it this way, in a large country like the US, a one-in-a-million coincidence happens 300 times a day.

Approximately 24,000 children are diagnosed with autism every year and in about 1/3 of those cases (8000/year...150/w) normally developing kids show abrupt deterioration (so called "regressive" autism). Regression usually appears between a child's 1st and 3rd birthdays, a period during which they get shots 4 separate times. Do the calculations and you quickly realize that, every year, over 600 children will spiral into autism during the four 1-week periods that follow these 4 shot visits... just by pure, utter, random chance.

Such a high chance of coincidence means that a parent who hears about 4-5 toddlers (or even 4-500 toddlers) who worsen after shots may easily be fooled into assuming that the cause of the autism was the shots...but they would be jumping to a totally false conclusion.

Scientists have carefully investigated sudden developmental deterioration and have repeatedly shown that there's no link with vaccines. For example, University of Michigan scientists analyzed 351 children with autism (1/2 with the regressive form). They noted the average age for regression was 19 months and they found no correlation to when vaccines were given.

Perhaps, the primary reason parents have been so open to the vaccine avoiders' unfounded claims is the current "science vacuum." For years, government and organized medicine have reacted to the autism explosion with horribly lethargy. As a result, we lack good answers to many pressing questions. This vacuum has allowed the cold wind of speculation to spread doubt and fear through our hearts.

So many parents have become paralyzed with indecision because of this debate that they've lost track of the fact that shots have saved millions of children (and adults) from disease, deformity, disability and death:

• In the 1930's, whooping cough's painful strangulation was epidemic -- in the 1940's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1950's whooping cough was uncommon.

• In the 1940's, paralytic polio terrorized every family -- in the 1950's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1960's polio was almost eradicated.

• In the 1950's, measles caused thousands to suffer pneumonia, encephalitis and death in the 1960's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1970's measles was rare.

• In the 1960's, rubella was a common cause of stillbirth, deafness and mental retardation -- in the 1970's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1980's birth defects from rubella had vanished.

• In the 1970's, H flu meningitis and epiglottitis were seen every day across America -- in the 1980's the vaccine became widely used -- by the1990's deadly H flu was close to eliminated.

And similar stories can be told for shots against pneumonia, chicken pox, Hepatitis B, mumps, etc.

In fact, shots are so important that even the most vocal vaccine avoiders swear they're not "anti-vaccine." Unfortunately, their actions make a travesty of their words. With alarming websites and a relentless, multiyear, media blitz they have single-handedly unleashed a huge vaccine backlash. They've shredded decades of public health investment and triggered a surge of "shot-phobia" that threatens to add epidemics of infection to the tragic rise of autism that already weighs so heavily on children and families.

The coming danger of this anti-vaccine campaign is seen all across the county. Doctors daily encounter fearful parents doubting the safety of vaccines. The New England Journal of Medicine reports a doubling and tripling of parents getting vaccine waivers for their children. The LA Times found that over 50% of children in some schools had asked for exemptions to avoid all vaccines.

This is of grave concern because disease outbreaks can start when as few as 5% of kids in a community skip shots. Recent Colorado studies found that children who delayed shots were 6-23 times more likely to get whooping cough and 22 times more likely to get measles. And, many more may fall seriously ill if this trend continues.

Parents who sidestep vaccines may do so because diseases like polio and whooping cough are so uncommon. But, the great irony is that the only reason these killers have become so uncommon...is because other moms get their kids immunized.

In my next blog, I'll respond to 4 more of the standard arguments of vaccine avoiders (3 flawed...and 1 reasonable). Then, in the final part in this series, I'll discuss the increasingly scary possibility that autism is triggered by a common chemical exposure.

Comments

[johnfryer]

Nobody doubts vaccines can prevent illness but this mustn't be used as the reason to up the number of vaccines for children to over 50 with some given at one day of age and endured in the womb now. In addition several given at once with rather unconvincing arguments that 11 given at once is less harmful than one given at age 15 years, yesterday.

In fact the standard argument is always yesterday's vaccine may have been bad but today's are OK.

We are well aware that a vaccine can give increased immunity but also anything else in the vaccine can also stimulate unwanted sensitivity.

How do we know or not know whether SIDS, diabetes, cancers, autism etc etc are not also sensitivities that are induced by vaccines?

TB is one of our oldest vaccines with just 9 million victims world wide today. A vaccine that hasn't worked.

Cholera, the Plague, Scarlet Fever etc etc seem to be under control with no vaccine currently in sight.

AIDS and malaria, not to mention those infectious illnesses picked up in a hospital visit seem lacking for a needed vaccine prevention.

Most people that had polio did not know they had the illness but of course unknown factors turned something less dangerous than a cold into something that could stop or paralyse mysteriously one arm or leg but not the others.

Today when vaccines do this we are not allowed to use the name polio but Guillaine Barre syndrome etc.

[johnfryer]

Hi

Some excellent comments and need time to digest all of them.

Mercury in vaccines is out of 95 per cent of them?

Firstly, where is the evidence?

The number of companies making or supplying thimerosal has increased so I would like to see actual figures of thimerosal and mercury going into vaccine companies over the past 20 years. As well as actual ppb levels Hg on vaccine vials.

With pregnant mothers now getting mercury vaccines regularly for the first time it seems a lot of information is misinformation at the best.

Secondly the number of autism has gone down briefly with withdrawal of mercury but with substitution has been temporary only.

Thirdly the cause of autism is multifold so when positive associations are found we dispose of the connection at our peril.

When in trouble, stop digging.

Adding more vaccines, adding back mercury to the pregnant mum's vaccine for the first time and adding new toxic chemicals to our babies food is not the recipe for autism reduction.

Even in France where the problem is not as severe, I only have to look over the fence to see a screaming non-talking young child in neurological trouble and pain. As a teacher for nearly 30 years until the early 90's I failed to notice one out of thousands of pupils. Today when I see few children I lose count of them.

[mofmars333]

Newest discussion is here;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harvey-karp/cracking-the-autism-riddl_b_219160.html

In hope that, "soon", these debates & discussions bring real truth to this matter out so all is settled.

Here's to wishing the best for all warriors on both sides, with the well being of our little ones at heart.

[Principaldad]

I have to say that the matter will not be settled through these discussions and debates.

If it is settled, it will be though scientific investigation. However, even that will probably not settle the issue in the minds of many vaccine critics. They will hold fast to their beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence (just like they have done for years). They will continue to use ad hominem arguments (studies "funded by" big pharma), disinformation (antifreeze in vaccines), pseudoscience ("overwhelming" children's immune systems), logical fallacies (we don't "know" it is safe), and so on.

There have been vaccine critics for as long as there have been vaccines. Both will continue on.

[dugmaze]

"However, even that will probably not settle the issue in the minds of many vaccine critics"

That's funny. We are the ones pushing for studies and you guys are the ones resisting.

[sdtech]

Dr. Karp you said “Approximately 24,000 children are diagnosed with autism every year and in about 1/3 of those cases (8000/year...150/w) normally developing kids show abrupt deterioration (so called "regressive" autism). Regression usually appears between a child's 1st and 3rd birthdays, a period during which they get shots 4 separate times. Do the calculations and you quickly realize that, every year, over 600 children will spiral into autism during the four 1-week periods that follow these 4 shot visits... just by pure, utter, random chance.”
This statement meets the B.S. criteria per page 61 of the book by Harry G. Frankfurt “On Bullshit.”
“He does not reject the authority of the truth, as the liar does, and oppose himself to it. He pays no attention to it all. By virtue of this, bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are."

Thimerosal kills brain cells. And so do other forms of mercury. Injecting children and pregnant women with thimerosal from multidose flu shots is NOT a random phenomenon (nor are other vaccine injections random). Rather this is a conscious action with little or no thought to the fact that FDA has not established numeric criteria for a safe level of thimerosal exposure to children and pregnant women from the multidose flu vaccine, based on chronic effects from the mercury

[kwombles]

Feel better now, sdtech? You don't get to arbitrarily decide scientific "truth" despite your penchant for believing so.

Again, can you repeat it with me since we've done this tango before: don't get a flu shot that has thimerosal in it. Get a a thimerosal free one. Problem solved.

[sdtech]

All science aside for the moment, our first granddaughter loved Shrek. Please see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR0DKOGco_o

[dugmaze]

"Do shots protect kids or provoke autism?"
Both.
Why do you try to categorize people into groups?


"Shots have too many ingredients." "Too many shots are given together." Some people think the connection is proven because baby shots have increased in number as the autism has increased in frequency. "
I don't hear you debunking these theories. I assume you take these as "unknowns", just like us.

"In 2002, over 95% of vaccine mercury was removed"
Incomplete statement that misleads people who don't know that flu shots were added with thimerosal. Plus what levels of mercury are acceptable? None according to scientists.

"huge Danish study ", "Japanese study"
Is there a reason the U.S. doesn't study it's own children?
Because as you stated:
"If a foreign government were suspected of doing something that caused brain problems to 1/166 American children our nation would immediately and vigorously respond...and even go to war! "

"To date, dozens of studies -- examining over 1 million children -- have failed to find any credible association between shots and autism...none! "
But the courts do:
http://www.uscfc.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/MILLMAN.DOE012109B_0.pdf
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/BANKS_CASE.pdf

" One big reason is because we have all heard reports of kids suddenly "got" autism just a week or two after shots. "
Are Congressmen credible:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f_s8WcfUMM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHtuILnzYZ4

[seriouslykiddingme]

Who you talking to, Doug? :-)

I'll take just the last bit, are Congressmen credible? Seriously, are you kidding me? Credible as sources of scientific information? NO. Even if they are absolutely down the line following the science, they are not the scientists. You should go back to the source. Arguing from the position that they are in power and therefore are people who are automatically credible sources? Come on! That's like saying because Bush and Cheney were in charge, they were credible. And I know you don't think that of the two of them, so why are you throwing out Congressman as credible sources for autism/vaccine information?

Well, I said I'd take on only the one, but what the heck;

Courts do not have the burden of scientific proof. After all, if courts can rule that evolution and creationism can be taught togther, we know they're not scientists. Right?

As to the rest. Here's a thought, as two people who both scored as extreme systemizers, you tell me why anyone would try to categorize people? Right? Geez. I can't think of any reason. Oh, wait, I can. Several. :-)

Bunk to that contention the other allegations haven't been addressed.

That get them all?

[dugmaze]

"Courts do not have the burden of scientific proof. After all, if courts can rule that evolution and creationism can be taught togther, we know they're not scientists. Right?"

Can that be applied to the omnibus ruling?

[Principaldad]

You are missing the point and taking things out of context, as usual. (To anyone who is curious, the quotes dugmaze pulls are from the main article.)

"Why do you try to categorize people into groups?" - The writer was not categorizing. He was making a point about how discussion of this issue has been polarized. He was arguing against the categorization. You taking him out of context does nothing to help your case.

"I don't hear you debunking these theories." - These "theories" have been debunked repeatedly. Besides, not every theory deserves debunking. There are hundreds of ridicuIous theories being put forth by vaccine critics. It would take 10 books to debunk all of them. Theories don't get debunked. If someone has a theory, it is up to THEM to PROVE it. That is the way science works.

"Is there a reason the U.S. doesn't study it's own children?" - You have repeatedly stated that you do not believe the US government. It was possible to do those other studies because the records existed.

"But the courts do." - Courts aren't proof of anything (just ask the hundreds of falsely convicted prisoners) and the so-called "vaccine court" is even less so. It is intentionally designed to favor those claiming vaccine injury and has a much lower burden of proof than a civil court. Plus, the vaccine court did not find association between shots and autsim. Those cases you cited are not cases of autism.

[dugmaze]

"He was making a point about how discussion of this issue has been polarized"

Polarized by whom? All I hear from parents are open minded discussions. You guys are the ones labeling people.

[sdtech]

(from another thread that is unreadable) Regarding "infinitesimal," Thimerosal was banned from eye contact lens solutions for adults and children over ten years ago.

And consider the number of neurons per milliliter in the amygdala per Mills et al at http://www.jneurosci.org/cgi/reprint/26/29/7674 on 12/08/2008 .

Then consider the number of mercury atoms in a milliliter of blood per Pichichero et al figure one at http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/reprint/121/2/e208 .

Then consider that elemental mercury per milliliter of brain tissue is about the same as the blood values per Burbacher et al at figures 6 and 7 at http://www.ehponline.org/members/2005/7712/7712.html.

The calculated number of mercury atoms per neuron is 150 billion mercury atoms per milliliter divided by 9 million neurons per milliliter, which is 16.7 thousand mercury atoms per neuron.

So if one were to draw a Venn diagram with say, a dozen circles and the first being autism, and the rest being possible causes - then look at the thimerosal circle. All circles, including thimerosal, intersect with the autism circle.

With no FDA established numeric criteria for a safe level of thimerosal exposure to children and pregnant women from the multidose flu vaccine, based on chronic effects from the mercury - then thimerosal should be banned immediately.

[sdtech]

(From another thread) Regarding the Ayoub reference no. 70, see http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/product.biblio.jsp?osti_id=5405073

[sdtech]

The pubmed no. is 4570832 for the 1973 Tryphonas et al paper (ref. no. 70 from Ayoub).

[Principaldad]

cont:

"Are Congressmen credible." - Who cares if they are? In the quote you cited the author did not imply anyone was not credible. His point was to explain that many cases of autistic regression after getting shots are GUARANTEED. When you have millions of children getting shots and tens of thousands of kids experiencing autistic regression, there are going to be thousands of times where those two things happen at the same time.

[sdtech]

“there are going to be thousands of times where those two things happen at the same time.”

“I have never lied to you. I have always told you some version of the truth.” Nicholson, Something,s Gotta Give

There were 25,192 seven year olds listed with autism on the IDEA database for the fall of 2007. See
http://www.ideadata.org/TABLES31ST/AR_1-7.xls .

[dugmaze]

""Are Congressmen credible." - Who cares if they are? "

Another piece of the puzzle.

[MNmommy]

Good news about autism!

http://www.freep.com/article/20090620/BUSINESS06/906200301/1019/BUSINESS/Insurer+settles+autism+care+lawsuit

Happy Father's Day!

[dugmaze]

Another step forward.

Great post.

Happy father's day to all the warrior dads.

[sirenity]

lol@dugmaze
Happy Father's Day to ALL Dads! Not just the father's that agree with me-but to every man who has held his child in his arms and loved him/her.

[kwombles]

Absolutely imperative that y'all watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_OVn5OGvig

[dugmaze]

Thanks, I watched it 5 times.

[sdtech]

And look at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85tgwh3HpsM

and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtEpCrSTOEc&feature=related

and

http://www.youtube.com/user/autismtookmickie

[dugmaze]

Your child's vaccination schedule:
http://www.generationrescue.org/pdf/cdc_comparison.pdf

I wish I had blind faith in our CDC the way some other people do. But I question my child's safety when I see letters like this one from our Congress to the CDC:
http://www.autismhelpforyou.com/EXPERT%20PAPER%20-%20Weldon%20To%20CDC%20-%20Internet%20File.pdf

Or the IOM:
http://www.vaccinesafety.edu/IOM-thimerosal-10-01-01.htm

The CDC pulled thimerosal from vaccines. Why? Maybe because of the Simpsonwood Retreat?
http://www.autismhelpforyou.com/HG%20IN%20VACCINES%20-%20Simpsonwood%20-%20Internet%20File.pdf

Do vaccines cause autism? It does in a court of law:
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/BANKS_CASE.pdf

[seriouslykiddingme]

Does it make you feel better to get out the same old, tired material, material we thoroughly debated in Carreys' thread with you? It doesn't change anything; it merely proves you've spent the last two months mired in the same old muck you started with. It shows you have absolutely no interest in expanding your knowledge base nor in questioning any of your assumptions.

I'm pretty sure that while the woo fighters may have every confidence that science will find the truth, none of us have blind faith in any governmental agency. The two don't really go together. You know?

And you've proved precisely nothing with the Banks case. Nothing with the thimerosal bit. And wasn't just this morning in another post you were crying fowl about the HepB at birth? Come on, Doug, which vaccine is it that you are convinced explains your son's Asperger's? And which vaccines are to blame for your issues?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jim-carrey/the-judgment-on-vaccines_b_189777.html?page=9&show_comment_id=23874495#comment_23874495


Thanks for clarifying,

Kim

[kwombles]

Aww, man, crying fowl! crying foul. See, that's what your picture of the chicken has rendered me to posting. :-)

[dugmaze]

"Thanks for clarifying,"

Thanks for confirming my post.

Next time I suggest debunking the information not me.

[Flavor]

Mofmars333, I had to comment on someone telling you what is inappropriate, I laughed myself silly because these same people tried to relay to me that my child could not have had a bad reaction to an immunization (shot) that he recieved now I call that inappropriate. Mofmars333, you and dugmaze have ignited sparks and are doing an excellent job people here where I live people are listening and taking notes we have 150 parent who are now questioning all the immunizations being giving and why are they given and we want to say thank you, for taking an intrest and a stand for justice.

[MNmommy]

Interesting, I've seen you get sympathetic and empathetic replies about your child from posters of all stripes.

"we have 150 parent who are now questioning all the immunizations being giving and why are they given"

You must be so very proud.

[dugmaze]

"You must be so very proud."

I'll be proud when it's in the millions.

[kwombles]

This would be a fine thing if you were making sure adequate and accurate scientific information were being given to the parents. I am deeply concerned based on the tenor of your posts that this is completely not the case.

Who precisely on Huff has said to you that there is no way your child could not have had an adverse reaction to vaccination. The pro science side has always acknowledged that adverse reactions occur to vaccination. What we have argued is that there are no reputable scientific studies showing a connection between vaccination and autism. If epidemiologists can trace one death from one of the rota virus vaccinations, they certainly could link the number of children with autism in the US to vaccines. That they have not done so says everything.

Let me blunt in case you have missed it: I am sorry (about the fifth time I've said it) that your child suffered an adverse reaction to a vaccination. It is entirely possible for two events to coexist. An adverse reaction and autism side by side. It is also entirely possible that for a number of parents, they look back months after the fact, looking for a reason their child has an autism diagnosis, hear the nonsense concerning a link, and then decide that must be what caused it. No adverse reaction at the time. Just what sounds like a plausible connection.

[mofmars333]

Thank you, Flavor, for the good person you are & joining us here for this discussion.

[mofmars333]

Many have come to believe in a probable connection between vaccinations & autism.

Too many warning bells have been going off, for far too long to be ignored. These are the voices of distraught parents.

We know there's that soup of toxins that enter into the equation, as Harvey Karp's said.

We don't think vaccinations are exclusively to blame for death, autism or any other type injury or disease but they do factor in & may be the catalyst.

We believe vaccinations to be the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back.

As far as the question of vaccinations actually preventing disease or saving lives, we don't really know, at this point.

We have reason to believe past studies & reports are biased due to untrustworthy individuals who may have vested interests & conflicts.

I've contacted Ingri Cassel, President of Vaccination Liberation at;

http://www.vaclib.org/index.htm

I've asked her here & help discuss this important matter.

I've also asked her to address the discussion at;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jay-gordon/autism-and-toxins_b_215461.html?show_comment_id=25779220#comment_25779220

So here's to getting these debates at Huffington Post rolling in caring & sharing, so we can help make this world a safer place for our little ones & future generations to come.

[dugmaze]

A must see video by Dr. Haley:

Mercury - What is its role in Autism and Alzheimer's Disease?
http://www.nomercury.org/media/haley/haley_files/default.htm

[MNmommy]

I'm not going to go listen to a biased opinion, but there is growing evidence that people with anxiety disorders, depression and bipolar are at large risk for Alzheimer's, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that folks with ASDs are as well.

IIRC, it has to do with the scarring/plaque in the brain that occurs after a rage, or overwhelming event. I think they are using fMRI to further study the phenomenon, but I haven't kept up on the research..

[mofmars333]

I'm listening now, Doug. Thanks.

There's a new discussion going on at;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jay-gordon/autism-and-toxins_b_215461.html?show_comment_id=25779220#comment_25779220

As Mr. Karp says here, "there is a soup of toxins" taking toll on our people but the fact is that vaccinations may be the catalyst that ignites autism as well as who knows what else as far as many diseases go?

[NetDude]

"the fact is that vaccinations may be the catalyst that ignites autism as well as who knows what else as far as many diseases go?"

vaccines prevent by many, many times disease and death more than any side effects they may have. nothing is 100% safe. how many times do we have to restate this?

i do not want to go back to the middle ages with infectious diseases being rampant and beliefs about voodoo treatments/ causes for diseases. we have the advances today due to science, not beliefs.

[Kruddler]

I saw this quote from Julian Simon in the late 80’s and thought it was most appropriate for all the alarmists of today.

"He always found it somewhat peculiar that neither the Science piece nor his public wager with Ehrlich nor anything else that he did, said, or wrote seemed to make much of a dent on the world at large. For some reason he could never comprehend, people were inclined to believe the very worst about anything and everything; they were immune to contrary evidence just as if they’d been medically vaccinated against the force of fact [his metaphor, not mine]. Furthermore, there seemed to be a bizarre reverse-Cassandra effect operating in the universe: whereas the mythical Cassandra spoke the awful truth and was not believed, these days “experts” spoke awful falsehoods, and they were believed. Repeatedly being wrong actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow upon the speaker."

:-)

[sdtech]

And these quotes from 1974 and 1986 seem appropriate for the CDC, the FDA, the AAP, and the medical community in general:

“It would appear that, for whatever purpose, be it for internal or external consumption, the management of NASA exaggerates the reliability of its product, to the point of fantasy.

NASA owes it to the citizens from whom it asks support to be frank, honest, and informative, so that these citizens can make the wisest decisions for the use of their limited resources.

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”

Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission Report on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, 1986. See http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51-l/docs/rogers-commission/Appendix-F.txt

“It is very dangerous to have such a policy in teaching--to teach students only how to get certain
results, rather than how to do an experiment with scientific integrity. So I have just one wish for you--the good luck to be somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain your position in the organization, or financial support, or so on,
to lose your integrity. May you have that freedom.”

Richard Feynman, Caltech commencement address, 1974. See http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/cargocul.htm

[dugmaze]

Copied from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarmists

What is an alarmist?
Alarmism is the production of needless warnings. The term is usually used to express disapproval or to dismiss the warnings. Any issue might be presented as alarmist, the following are some examples:



The threat of terrorism, nuclear or biochemical attack

Consumption of junk food and foods high in sodium, fat, oil, sugar, cholesterol, or calories as being deadly.

The possibility of an oil crash

The potential effects of global warming

The economic damage that may result due to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

The population bomb

The prediction of end times events from the Bible.

The erosion of civil liberties.

The tendency toward more economic and political globalism and away from nationalism.

That Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, this preceded the Iraq War.

The 2002-2003 SARS incident

Possibility of a bird flu epidemic, killing hundreds of millions.

Mutual assured destruction was the possibility of a full-scale nuclear war, causing mass extinction.

The severity of the Three Mile Island incident or the Chernobyl disaster and possibilities of incidents of greater magnitude
.
The possibility of an impact event on Earth, causing an extinction event.

Y2K bug causing breakdown of the world's computer systems.

Carcinogenity of electromagnetic radiation from power lines or microwave ovens.

Backmasking

The Clash of Civilizations

Dysgenics will bring about the downfall of the human species.

Intelligent (manmade) Robots will take over the world and eliminate all humans.

Do you believe in any of these?

[Kruddler]

you forgot global warming...

[mofmars333]

They forgot the cell phone & tumor connection.

Some ridiculous but others maybe.

Some couldn't be labeled as needless because they could be for real.

So they stick real possibilities in with the silly ones & label them all, alarmists.

Vaccinations being a probable danger is real & not a needless alarm going off.

But some, sincere in their belief & some not, call us alarmists, unfairly, & throw us in with the mix.

[Principaldad]

I "believe in" (or have believed in) several of these. However, there are none that are adequate cause for real alarm. Some, like the Y2K bug, required addressing, but the panic was overblown. Some, like an impact event, are such remote possibilities that they aren't worth worrying about. Some, like terrorism, are cause for concern but hysteria only serves to make things worse.

In the end, alarmism is rarely useful.

[kwombles]

I have no choice but to acknowledge at the top of this thread that Doug is a seriously funny man.

Changing his profile picture to the one he currently has demonstrates a wicked sense of humor.


Kudos.

[2cutekids]

There has not been enough scientific investigation to exonerate vaccines. I have no idea if vaccines cause autism, and neither does anyone else really, at this point.

If we accept every study done to date, at best we can only say that thimerosol and the MMR shot are not implicated. None of those studies in any way examine any of the other ingredients , the many other shots, or the possible unintended consequences of giving so many shots at once when children are so little. Those aspects have never been studied, ever. There is just too much that has never been studied to cross vaccines off the list of suspects at this point.

What clouds this debate is the fact that these diseases can be horrible and the vaccines prevent them. That is no joke. But because of that, the fear of what would happen if we needed to back off vaccines is greater than the fear that they might cause autism. We so need vaccines to be safe that we are willing to acccept incomplete science as proof that they are.

I vaccinate my kids but I dont do so with confidence because I know tthere is much about this that has never even been examined, let alone resolved.

Most parents would rather find a purely genetic cause for their kids' autism so they could stop torturing themselves about having done something, albeit with the best of intentions, that unwittingly harmed their children. I am one of those parents.

[Principaldad]

"There has not been enough scientific investigation to exonerate vaccines."

This reveals an underlying problem with the vaccine critic movement. The human race has limited resources. Resources for scientific study are even more limited. The limits are not just on the amount of money available, but also on the number of people who know enough to conduct the relevant research. Because of this, scientific study must go where it is most needed. We do not have the luxury of researching every single possibility about every single topic.

The possibility of a vaccine-autism link was extremely unlikely to begin with. It is mostly based on anecdotes that are guaranteed to exist even if vaccines were NOT linked to autism. It is partially based on a supposed correlation between vaccines and autism rates that doesn't even match up. From the beginning, vaccine-autism causation was really just a poor guess. Now there is a body of science to back that up.

You mention accepting "incomplete science". Science is almost always incomplete. Climate study is very incomplete, yet we still have enough information to know it is prudent to set policy to limit CO2 emissions. The study of hurricanes is incomplete but we still have to rely on our existing knowledge to order evacuations when necessary. We don't even have full scientific knowledge about gravity.

[dugmaze]

If some people believe that there is no cure for autism, then what are they researching right now?

[sirenity]

The cause dugmaze. Due to hysterical accusations concerning vaccines and the supposed relationship to autism, a great deal of money was spent researching the possibility. Research is also conducted to determine genetic factors, environmental factors etc. Research is also conducted to determine in what areas a person with autism functions differently from one without. And to map those differences. And research is done to provide tools and strategies to assist persons with autism in functioning in typical society. Tools such as social training and behaviour intervention. I could write pages on what exactly is being and has been researched.
And I would not be close to providing a complete list.

[MNmommy]

The cause.

And also, too, wasted time, money and effort PROVING THAT VACCINES AIN'T IT!!!! To quiet the insanity of the accusation - so that thousands/hundreds of thousands of parents do not abandon sound public health policy.

That is what the WHOLE DANG ARGUMENT is about.

Seriously, is it possible that you are that obtuse?

[dugmaze]

I don't get what you mean?

[2cutekids]

May I see your "proof" that vaccines don't cause autism?

Andrew Zimmerman and his colleagues at Hopkins have very nicely shown that kids on the spectrum are disproportionately likely to have a family history of autoimmune disease. It is reasonable, then, to ask whether vaccines, which provoke and profoundly alter a child's immune system, during very critical developmental periods, might be causing something unintended to happen in kids with a genetic immune system vulnerability. This has never been studied.

What if vaccines trigger an autoimmune response that affects the brain over time? Other reserach has shown that people on the spectrum may be more likely to have chronic brain inflamation. It *may* all be connected- or it may not.....we won't know unless a lot of other research is conducted that has heretofore never been done.

What is "insanity" in this whole thing is that people who claim to believe in science make statements that are way too strong for the body of scientific evidence to support. There is much that we don't know.....

[sirenity]

Dugmaze. 'they' are researching many things. Research is done to figure out the causes, the genetic factors, environmental factors etc. Research is done to determine the nature of the disorder, ie how does autism impact cognition? Pragmatics? etc. Research is done to determine how and what resources are needed for those with autism. Research is done to establish teaching methods, impact of families, impact on schools.

I am sure I am only touching on a few research topics here.