Cracking the Autism Riddle: "Vaccine Theory" Fades as a New Idea Emerges
This is the first post in a series of three about autism and vaccines.
If a foreign government were suspected of doing something that caused brain problems to 1/166 American children our nation would immediately and vigorously respond...and even go to war! Well, our children are under a mysterious assault that is causing 1/166 to develop autism. And, we must band together and immediately and vigorously make the correction of this problem a true national priority.
As part of our national wake-up call, April was designated National Autism Awareness month and the press repeatedly aired an impassioned debate: Are vaccines a boon or a danger? Do shots protect kids or provoke autism? Unfortunately, all too often the media discussion was highly polarized...creating lots of heat, but shedding little light.
In this 3-part blog, I'd like to discuss in detail the reasons why shots are very safe - and super important - and to present some fresh ideas about a more likely cause of autism: an invisible soup of toxins we're exposed to every day...endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs).
The rise in autism is scary and all reasonable people should be desperate to solve this mystery. But, is the fact that we give more vaccines proof that they trigger the disorder...or is it a terrible coincidence?
History is filled with good guesses that just fell flat. For example, five years ago, many were convinced that mercury in vaccines was the autism culprit. It was a fair hunch...but ended up wrong. In 2002, over 95% of vaccine mercury was removed. Yet, instead of plummeting autism rates zoomed even higher!
Another popular hunch was that the MMR shot (measles, mumps, rubella) caused autism. But a huge Danish study (examining hundreds of thousands of children) found that kids skipping the MMR had the same exact risk of getting autism as those who were immunized. A Japanese study also showed zero difference between MMR getters and skippers (no benefit was seen even when the MMR was split into separate shots).
To date, dozens of studies -- examining over 1 million children -- have failed to find any credible association between shots and autism...none!
Yet, speculation that shots cause autism continues to stick in parents' minds. Why? One big reason is because we have all heard reports of kids suddenly "got" autism just a week or two after shots.
In fact, one of the scariest characteristics of autism is that it can suddenly afflict a child who seems developmentally normal. But, is it possible that this sudden problem right after shots is just a coincidence? Absolutely, yes! Every day, serious and amazing things occur, purely by chance. Think of it this way, in a large country like the US, a one-in-a-million coincidence happens 300 times a day.
Approximately 24,000 children are diagnosed with autism every year and in about 1/3 of those cases (8000/year...150/w) normally developing kids show abrupt deterioration (so called "regressive" autism). Regression usually appears between a child's 1st and 3rd birthdays, a period during which they get shots 4 separate times. Do the calculations and you quickly realize that, every year, over 600 children will spiral into autism during the four 1-week periods that follow these 4 shot visits... just by pure, utter, random chance.
Such a high chance of coincidence means that a parent who hears about 4-5 toddlers (or even 4-500 toddlers) who worsen after shots may easily be fooled into assuming that the cause of the autism was the shots...but they would be jumping to a totally false conclusion.
Scientists have carefully investigated sudden developmental deterioration and have repeatedly shown that there's no link with vaccines. For example, University of Michigan scientists analyzed 351 children with autism (1/2 with the regressive form). They noted the average age for regression was 19 months and they found no correlation to when vaccines were given.
Perhaps, the primary reason parents have been so open to the vaccine avoiders' unfounded claims is the current "science vacuum." For years, government and organized medicine have reacted to the autism explosion with horribly lethargy. As a result, we lack good answers to many pressing questions. This vacuum has allowed the cold wind of speculation to spread doubt and fear through our hearts.
So many parents have become paralyzed with indecision because of this debate that they've lost track of the fact that shots have saved millions of children (and adults) from disease, deformity, disability and death:
- In the 1930's, whooping cough's painful strangulation was epidemic -- in the 1940's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1950's whooping cough was uncommon.
- In the 1940's, paralytic polio terrorized every family -- in the 1950's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1960's polio was almost eradicated.
- In the 1950's, measles caused thousands to suffer pneumonia, encephalitis and death in the 1960's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1970's measles was rare.
- In the 1960's, rubella was a common cause of stillbirth, deafness and mental retardation -- in the 1970's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1980's birth defects from rubella had vanished.
- In the 1970's, H flu meningitis and epiglottitis were seen every day across America -- in the 1980's the vaccine became widely used -- by the1990's deadly H flu was close to eliminated.
And similar stories can be told for shots against pneumonia, chicken pox, Hepatitis B, mumps, etc.
In fact, shots are so important that even the most vocal vaccine avoiders swear they're not "anti-vaccine." Unfortunately, their actions make a travesty of their words. With alarming websites and a relentless, multiyear, media blitz they have single-handedly unleashed a huge vaccine backlash. They've shredded decades of public health investment and triggered a surge of "shot-phobia" that threatens to add epidemics of infection to the tragic rise of autism that already weighs so heavily on children and families.
The coming danger of this anti-vaccine campaign is seen all across the county. Doctors daily encounter fearful parents doubting the safety of vaccines. The New England Journal of Medicine reports a doubling and tripling of parents getting vaccine waivers for their children. The LA Times found that over 50% of children in some schools had asked for exemptions to avoid all vaccines.
This is of grave concern because disease outbreaks can start when as few as 5% of kids in a community skip shots. Recent Colorado studies found that children who delayed shots were 6-23 times more likely to get whooping cough and 22 times more likely to get measles. And, many more may fall seriously ill if this trend continues.
Parents who sidestep vaccines may do so because diseases like polio and whooping cough are so uncommon. But, the great irony is that the only reason these killers have become so uncommon...is because other moms get their kids immunized.
In my next blog, I'll respond to 4 more of the standard arguments of vaccine avoiders (3 flawed...and 1 reasonable). Then, in the final part in this series, I'll discuss the increasingly scary possibility that autism is triggered by a common chemical exposure.
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Oh my "God" this poor Mother's story is the most heartbreaking I've read.
http://art
Okay, so what about the research that also disproves that the "vaccine" was actually the reason that there was a decline of the actual disease? The research there proves that by the time the "vaccine" began to be administered the disease was altogether gone by then.
oh wait, and additional
Yes, this needs attention.
When I stated the fact that there's reason to doubt vaccinations actually save lives, someone replied with the following.
"Tell that to the 90% of Native American population that was wiped out in a few decades in the 16th century fom smallpox and measles. Tell that to more than half of the Hawaiians who died in a measles epidemic. Tell that to the 1 in 3 in Europe that died from the plague"
The probable myth & maybe false statistics saying vaccinations ever saved lives is debatable as is the possible connection between vaccinations to autism.
We can start here for the answer to vaccinations really saving lives;
http://www
Quick reference to the matter & part of the equation in search of the answer;
"What part did sanitation, nutritional changes, hygiene, cleaner water, less crowded houses, medical reforms, and vaccination play in the 1800-1950 decline in mortality?"
privatename, you are absolutely correct about looking at disease versus side effects. That absolutely must be done for any vaccine. After all, it would be illogical to use a vaccine if it were more dangerous than the vaccine.
However, you mention comparing "he percentage of people that pass away due to getting the disease" with the percentage of people with documented side effects. That isn't quite right. These diseases have other effects than death. Just getting the disease in the first place is usually bad enough (remember itchy chicken pox?). We need to make an even comparison between minor and serious side effects and the minor and serious effects of the disease. After all, a short term fever from a vaccine is better than full blown measles. Soreness at the injection site (the most common side effect of any vaccine) is trivial compared to the effects of any vaccine preventable disease.
I would suggest that you have evidence of this that you provide it.
It's being presented as you can see & there's more to come. Where's yours?
I am unaware of any situation were "the disease was altogether gone" by the time a vaccine began to be administered. Decline is different than altogether gone. I would like to know what research you are talking about. The evidence that vaccines prevent disease is as solid as you can get in science. The arguments that I have seen which try to claim otherwise are usually based on lack of information.
For example, I posted about the original polio vaccine last night. The clinical trials for that vaccine included nearly 2 million children. The evidence of its effect was overwhelming. Some people point to a decline in polio just prior to license of the vaccine as "evidence" that the disease was already declining. However, they fail to realize:
a) polio was cyclical with large spikes occurring and abating naturally, but never going away.
b) there were 2 million children included in the field trials, a number so large that it is going to effect the overall disease rates.
The polio virus had been endemic in the US for many decades. The infection rates would rise and fall, but would never go below a base rate of several thousand per year. The vaccine, which had already been clinically shown to be effective, was instrumental in the complete eradication of Polio in the US. Similar stories can be told for nearly every vaccine used today.
Here's a chart on measles.
http://www
Notice the steady decline in measles before and after vaccination. Clearly indisputable evidence that sometimes vaccines play a minor role in preventing death by disease.
Of course this is just the measels. Other diseases could be different.
I wonder if we are not hurting ourselves with too much medicine. It's like a back brace for people who lift heavy objects. It will keep you from developing the muscles neccessary to do the task or give you the "superman syndrome" and make you think you can lift more than you can. As with most subjects, the proper way is through education, not aids. So you are more likely to get hurt using a back brace than not.
"Since its licensure in 1973, the widespread use of measles
vaccine has resulted in a greater than 90 per cent reduction
in reported measles incidence in the United States."
http://www
Absolutely no way your conclusion that vaccination played a minor role in the reduction of measles is based on this study. Unless you read studies like Handley apparently does.
The problem is that you are only looking at mortality (the number of deaths per case of measles). Certainly other great advances have been made other than vaccines. Medical science has managed to increase the chances of survival for many conditions, including measles. However, medicine is not perfect and the death rate remains at 3 per 1000 cases with the best medical care. Of course this does not include those who experience long term brain damage, lengthy hospital stays, etc.
The death rate may have been reduced, but the infection rate (the chance of actually getting the measles) stayed about the same.
With the death rate per 1000 cases reduced but still significant, the clear way to further reduce deaths and other horrible effects was to reduce the number of cases. That is exactly what the vaccine did. The number of measles cased dropped from hundreds of thousands per year (and hundreds of associated deaths) to only about 25,000 cases in 1975 (and only 20 deaths). Cases continued to drop and when the booster was added in the 80's the measles were eventually wiped out in the US, with small outbreaks in unvaccinated populations starting overseas.
Thank you, Dr. Karp.
As a pediatrician who gives children vaccines ALL THE TIME, I would expect you to read the product information. If you can't find it in your stacks and stacks of stuff, let me make it easy for you. Page 11, first paragraph under the bullets. Adverse effects of the DTaP: AUTISM.
http://www
"Adverse events reported include ...(long list) ...SIDS, ...celluli
"Because these events are reported voluntarily from a population of uncertain size, it is not always possible to reliably estimate their frequencies or to establish a causal relationship to components of Tripedia vaccine."
All that means is that whenever parents report *any* symptom that happens to take place after the vaccine, doctors pass the report along and it gets noted here, below the bulleted list of better-established rare complications. The statement isn't evidence of anything. As Dr. Karp says in this very article, when eight thousand kids a year are developing regressive autism symptoms, some of them will happen right after a vaccine just by random chance.
"Let me make it easy for you": Correlation is not causation, and reporting is not proof.
Absolutely correct.
Vaccine critics claim vaccines cause autism. Some parents believe it and report that vaccines caused their children's autism. Vaccine company states that people report autism. Vaccine critics now claim that vaccine company admits autism is caused by vaccines.
Sort of the tail wagging the dog.
Some children are in car accidents after their vaccinations - but it's not 'caused by' the vaccination.
Since autism is typically identified by the age of 5 there is a significant lag in statistical information. I don't know where Mr. Karp got his info. The latest I could find online was for children born in 1999 and thimerosal was still used in infant immunizations until it expired in 2002/03. When statistical info for those born after 02 show no decrease in ASD I will heartily agree with his assessment. There is currently a study that should resolve the issue of thimerosal and vaccinations in general that is not sponsored by pharmaceutical business types who sell their souls by weighing profit margins on one side of the scale. I look forward to that no matter what the outcome. Also there's a reason it's called medical arts. It's a lot softer than real science.
Your stereotyping of the thousands who strive to make medicines for improved human health is ignorant in the extreme. Do you actually know anyone who works for a pharmaceutical or biotech company?
I don't stereotype doctors or health care professionals. My father was a doctor. My brother in law has worked for years as a leading researcher at the University of Cincinatti to find a cure for ailments he didn't think Jesus intended. I am close friends with a regional pharmaceutical rep and he's a very nice guy. He's just making a living and wants the best for Abbott labratories which goes hand in hand with his own success. I have known doctors and children of doctors my entire life and I love them all. I can't say the same thing about all the non-health business people who would sell their souls for a buck and are in charge of pharmaceuticals. I wouldn't back off of that statement if you paid me... well, maybe if you juiced up the price some...
Big Pharma has contributed to a situation in the US where we pay the highest costs for the worst outcomes in the Western world. Of course there are good people who work in this industry. But good people do not make Big Pharma a good industry.
DMW1 wrote:
"My young son was frequently in the hospital for asthma attacks until a specialist prescribed several drugs (Advair and others) to be taken multiple times per day. After a several months we saw an item on CNN regarding a link between long term use of these drugs and early death (late teens - early twenties)
You're so right & this criminal activity will soon be a thing of the past, no matter how hard misinformed or purposley deceptive people try to spin truth to the matter.
My 34 year old son had an ear infection when he was in grade school & had some horrible tasting red stuff I had to fight with him to get down. He had been hospitolized for what was said to so rare that only one other person on another continent was ever know to get it.
After a while I started asking questions about this drug, thank "God"
Because I was told it was still in the expermental stage & one of the known side effects was sterelization.
My "God" I freaked. I yelled at the neuroligst for not telling me about that risk & the fact that it may not even work, to boot.
These people are greedy & evil & their day has come to be exposed, big time.
To clarify any confusion, DMW1 also wrote;
"We learned that most medical schools receive funding from pharmaceutical companies. Most drug studies in the US are tied to pharmaceutical companies. Members of the FDA advisory committee that approves drugs have financial ties to pharmaceutical companies"
posted here Jun 11, 2009 at 00:24:10
I was agreeing with the point of the fact in the matter she was making, then went on to explain one of my experiences in this area..
Can you explain why you feel the need to put god in quotes? Because you keep doing that and I'd like to know.
I mean, I could focus on the lunacy of calling medicine criminal activity unless you were talking about the Geiers or Wakefield specifically, because what they're doing ought to be. But let's just keep it to your need to put god/God in quotes.
Like anyone has a clue.
You say they removed "95% of the mercury in vaccines" but... why was there mercury in them at all?
Thimerosal was used as a preservative. It was there to keep the vaccine from becoming contaminated or infected with other pathogens.
What are they using now?
We were lied to by our pediatrician some years ago when we had asked if it really had been removed & found out it hadn't.
The nightmare that followed due to our believing that lie was criminal. The sickness, fever & crying was heartbreaking. Then going backwards. Not talking or walking. Taking a long time to finally catch up, thank "God"
The new doctor was very understanding & helpful. Thank "God" more doctors are coming forward in truth to this matter.
You took your son in his 20's to a pediatrician?
If you feel that your doctor lied, and that such an action is criminal you need to report such a thing as malpractice.
Good luck though, as vaccines do not cause autism, as per credible scientific studies have shown.
I think what's really sad here is that this "doctor" is going to tell us all about another environmental toxin that is involved in the autism epidemic, and so many of the sheeple out there are going to howl in approval because it isn't the vaccines. I really believe that vaccines play a major role in autism, I also believe that the continued rise in autism, after the supposed removal of Thimerosal, can be attributed to many other toxins in our environment and processed foods. Our diet is killing our children!
But to assume that vaccines are perfectly safe, (when Sanofi, a vaccine manufacturer, actually lists autism as a reaction to their vaccine) is ludicrous. We are the most heavily vaccinated society on the planet, here in America, and yet we rank 25th among 30 industrialized nations in infany mortality. Diabetes is now epidemic, early onset alzheimers, autism, add, adhd, and the list goes on and on.
then, add to this, the fact that ALL vaccines contain carcinogens, and ALL vaccines have a "disclaimer" if you will, that clearly states that "This vaccine has not been tested for carcinogenicity" and what you have is an industry that has a free ride and no concerns about ruining children. The pharmaceutical companies get government money to develop vaccines, the Gov mandates the product and the gov (i.e. taxpayers) relieves pharma from any liability on said product.
WHY IN THE HECK WOULD ANY DRUG MANUFACTURER WANT THIS TO END!!!
Though I disagree with about 3/4ths of your post, I do agree with your first statement that the doctor (no scare quotes needed) is going to put forward his own hypothesis about the cause of autism which will then be seized upon as the next Great White Hope of autism causation.
Rather than latching on to the flavor of the month we need to do the basic research to understand the disease, discover the cause, formulate therapies, and find a cure. This process takes time and there are no shortcuts. To lurch from hypothesis to hypothesis is fruitless and damaging as it diverts attention and resources from the necessary groundwork that still must be done.
While I appreciate the doctor's initial article, I look forward to what is still to come from him. I hope it is balanced, dispassionate, and sober, but even if it is, science is not decided in the blogosphere.
"science is not decided in the blogospher
True, but unfortunately the opinions of many people about scientific topics ARE decided in the blogosphere.
Dr. Karp provided us with scientific evidence.
You've told us what you "believe."
See the difference?
"Evidence" .. really .. an outdated (even by the CDC) autism rate number and a widely contested Danish study ..
Especially, bloggers who only research half the truth and half the facts, and present the ones they want you to hear....oh
"a more likely cause of autism: an invisible soup of toxins we're exposed to every day...endo
Yeah, except what of all the kids that regressed after a shot? Kind of a big hole in your theory.
Repeat after me: correlation does not prove causation.
What is the connection to EDC that Dr. Harvey proposed? How many studies back up his assertion? What proves his causation?
I'd be willing to bet that almost every child who regressed had watched a video in the preceeding week. Proof!! Disney causes autism!!
Correlation vs. causation.
We've been over this.
AnneS - "Yeah, except what of all the kids that regressed after a shot? Kind of a big hole in your theory."
Dr. Karp - "Do the calculations and you quickly realize that, every year, over 600 children will spiral into autism during the four 1-week periods that follow these 4 shot visits... just by pure, utter, random chance."
The doctor explains that it is a statistical certainty that may kids will regress after a shot...by utter random chance. That is a big hole in YOUR theory.
but how many cases are there of regression into autism during the four week period ? ... without that number Dr. Karp's calculation is meaningless.
"by utter random chance."
Then how does a doctor know what medicines to give their patients if everything is by utter random chance?
Or do they give a medicine and wait for the results of that medicine.
You make no sense.
I know of two children that have never had a vaccine and they have autism. Big hole in your hypothesis. My bet is on the chmeicals used to make pajamas flame retardent, keeps food from sticking in the pan and makes teething toys soft. None of them have been tested for carcinogenic properties or anything else for that matter. Is it such a cooincidence that the make of Teflon has decided to phase it out over the next few years? Dont be surprised if that very megacorp is not quietly stirring up the pot about vaccines to deflect attention from themselves. Our homegrown Bhopal.
Interesting. You are supplanting one conspiracy theory in favor of another.
Teflon is a likely carcinogen
The shot and the developmental stage where signs of autism typically become noticeable do coincide. That being said, have any studies by credible autism experts been done where home movies of these children (whom parents claim had zero signs of autism before vaccination) been studied by persons trained to screen for autism?
Just curious.
When we watch our home movies now (armed with hindsight and much more awareness of the signs of autism) we (my family) notice the signs from a much earlier time compared to when we actually recognized the differences and proceeded to have my son screened.
It is up to every parent in the country to weigh the benefits of vaccination against the risks of vaccination and decide for him or herself whether or not those benefits outweigh those risks. We live in a country in which people have a right to their civil liberties. The government has no business sticking its nose into the doctor-patient relationship where it doesn't belong, and it especially has no business forcing a medical procedure on anyone. The federally mandated vaccination list needs to be abolished!
"We live in a country in which people have a right to their civil liberties"
We do indeed. We also live in a country that believes in a number of moral obligations. Public health is one of them.
"We also live in a country that believes in a number of moral obligations. Public health is one of them"
A couple of facts about the US's superior healthcare system:
Infant mortality rate
http://www
Human Development Index
http://www
Healthy Life Expectancy
http://www
Health Performance Rank By Country
http://www
Total Health Expenditures as % of GDP
http://www
Child Well-Being In Rich Countries
http://www
So if I have antibiotic resistant TB then I should be allowed to visit your kids' school and breath all over them? It is called Public Health.
Either the shots work or they don't. If they work, an unvaccinated kid is no threat to a vaccinated one. If they don't work, there's no point in forcing anyone to have them.
Didn't they recently find out the leading doctor who said that vaccine's were to blame was actually making up all of his findings.
Pretty much. There are finer points to it, but yes.
Actually that may not be true. I hear he was framed. We need, all of us, study up on both sides to the matter, to be able to decide the truth to it, for ourselves.
And what you "hear" trumps facts and evidence, as usual.
We should all know now that we can push the vaccine hypothesis to the side. Why not push the "epidemic" hypothesis to the side as well? Let's confront the uncomfortable truth that a wider understanding (and attention and publicity) of AS issues has produced a wealth of diagnoses. Perhaps there are environmental triggers - but what they are and how they work won't come without further research into what happens when children develop autism. More research; less hysteria.
Epidemic hypothesis? Autism has become "autistic spectrum disorder" that includes a broader range of developmental disorders which accounts for some of the statistical increase in the diagnosis of autism. But it doesn't take a brilliant doctor or scientist to recognize autism or even PDDNOS. Symptoms are overt and obvious and any doctor who was not equiped to diagnose autism in 1970 when the rate was less than 2 in 10,000 should have found a different line of work.
I agree that hand flapping and spinning in circles seem obvious as signs, but not all persons who are autistic present such obvious signs.
There are many sources of such markers/signs. I am lazy, so am posting just one.
http://www
Dr. Karp you said “History is filled with good guesses that just fell flat. For example, five years ago, many were convinced that mercury in vaccines was the autism culprit. It was a fair hunch...bu
It seems what fell flat was the American Academy of Pediatrics and the United States Health Service in seeing that thimerosal was removed - as it assured the public would be done in an announcement 10 years ago. See CDC 1999 at http://www
And in 2009 the CDC says that during the last flu season 2008-2009 the CDC announced that there were around 143 million total flu doses available and around 50 million thimerosal free doses available. See http://www
With 93 million multidose flu shots with mercury and 50 million without mercury that would mean that 65 percent of the flu shots still had mercury. And so - most of the children and pregnant women that received flu shots in states that do not ban mercury in shots, received vaccines with 25 micrograms of mercury.
Children and pregnant women should not have 25 micrograms of mercury, a known neurotoxin, injected into their bodies.
still flogging the mercury-is-bad line, I see, sdtech. Maybe you should also tell the readers that the influenza vaccine is pretty much the only vaccine that still contains thiomersal.
That's not true. Thimerosal has not been banned and is still in most vaccinations.
A thimerosal-free influenza vaccine was available in last year's run of immunizations.
Thimerosal was utilized, unchallenged, in numerous medical products until contact lens users noticed adverse effects from the substance. Mercury is a toxin which was prescribed, in the past, for infections since it was toxic to micro-organisms as well.
Put simply, it's Stone Age stuff and we need to delete it from the pharmacological database and move on to better substances.
We would all like simple answers. Autism is not simple. The MIND institute says that autism is partly genetic, involving at least 20 genes. Iit's not ALL genetics, because there are identical twins with only 1 autistic. Clearly an environmental trigger is involved.
This goes way beyond vaccines. It appears that there are many different triggers, and many subtypes of autism. Autistic children cannot detoxify well, as shown by testing. Different children are toxic in different substances, including mercury and lead. Some combine to become more toxic, for example aluminum makes mercury 10 times worse when combined. Mercury is most likely one of the triggers, as are xenobiotic plastics, pesticides, lead, and others. The reason autism hits mostly boys has to do with them being less immunologically mature. Also, testosterone makes them more vulnerable, while estrogen protects girls.
I have a 15yo son with autism, and I've been studying this awhile. I work with families, and I've heard "my son became autistic the day after his shots" hundreds of times. I do not believe it's coincidence. I don't believe vaccines cause ALL autism, just some of it.
This makes it difficult to draw scientific conclusions. Vaccines are not well-tested before they give them to children. The FDA/medical status quo covers up vaccine problems. The studies cited in this article have flaws in them. and are not conclusive. This case is nowhere near closed.
A friend of the family took their normal healthy 3 year old son to get vaccine shots, he got sick the next day, and also ended up with autism. At the very least the vaccine was a trigger perhaps together with other factors. It really comes down to toxins being introduced in the body, and at some point one of the vaccine becomes the tipping point.
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