Cracking the Autism Riddle: "Vaccine Theory" Fades as a New Idea Emerges
This is the first post in a series of three about autism and vaccines.
If a foreign government were suspected of doing something that caused brain problems to 1/166 American children our nation would immediately and vigorously respond...and even go to war! Well, our children are under a mysterious assault that is causing 1/166 to develop autism. And, we must band together and immediately and vigorously make the correction of this problem a true national priority.
As part of our national wake-up call, April was designated National Autism Awareness month and the press repeatedly aired an impassioned debate: Are vaccines a boon or a danger? Do shots protect kids or provoke autism? Unfortunately, all too often the media discussion was highly polarized...creating lots of heat, but shedding little light.
In this 3-part blog, I'd like to discuss in detail the reasons why shots are very safe - and super important - and to present some fresh ideas about a more likely cause of autism: an invisible soup of toxins we're exposed to every day...endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs).
The rise in autism is scary and all reasonable people should be desperate to solve this mystery. But, is the fact that we give more vaccines proof that they trigger the disorder...or is it a terrible coincidence?
History is filled with good guesses that just fell flat. For example, five years ago, many were convinced that mercury in vaccines was the autism culprit. It was a fair hunch...but ended up wrong. In 2002, over 95% of vaccine mercury was removed. Yet, instead of plummeting autism rates zoomed even higher!
Another popular hunch was that the MMR shot (measles, mumps, rubella) caused autism. But a huge Danish study (examining hundreds of thousands of children) found that kids skipping the MMR had the same exact risk of getting autism as those who were immunized. A Japanese study also showed zero difference between MMR getters and skippers (no benefit was seen even when the MMR was split into separate shots).
To date, dozens of studies -- examining over 1 million children -- have failed to find any credible association between shots and autism...none!
Yet, speculation that shots cause autism continues to stick in parents' minds. Why? One big reason is because we have all heard reports of kids suddenly "got" autism just a week or two after shots.
In fact, one of the scariest characteristics of autism is that it can suddenly afflict a child who seems developmentally normal. But, is it possible that this sudden problem right after shots is just a coincidence? Absolutely, yes! Every day, serious and amazing things occur, purely by chance. Think of it this way, in a large country like the US, a one-in-a-million coincidence happens 300 times a day.
Approximately 24,000 children are diagnosed with autism every year and in about 1/3 of those cases (8000/year...150/w) normally developing kids show abrupt deterioration (so called "regressive" autism). Regression usually appears between a child's 1st and 3rd birthdays, a period during which they get shots 4 separate times. Do the calculations and you quickly realize that, every year, over 600 children will spiral into autism during the four 1-week periods that follow these 4 shot visits... just by pure, utter, random chance.
Such a high chance of coincidence means that a parent who hears about 4-5 toddlers (or even 4-500 toddlers) who worsen after shots may easily be fooled into assuming that the cause of the autism was the shots...but they would be jumping to a totally false conclusion.
Scientists have carefully investigated sudden developmental deterioration and have repeatedly shown that there's no link with vaccines. For example, University of Michigan scientists analyzed 351 children with autism (1/2 with the regressive form). They noted the average age for regression was 19 months and they found no correlation to when vaccines were given.
Perhaps, the primary reason parents have been so open to the vaccine avoiders' unfounded claims is the current "science vacuum." For years, government and organized medicine have reacted to the autism explosion with horribly lethargy. As a result, we lack good answers to many pressing questions. This vacuum has allowed the cold wind of speculation to spread doubt and fear through our hearts.
So many parents have become paralyzed with indecision because of this debate that they've lost track of the fact that shots have saved millions of children (and adults) from disease, deformity, disability and death:
- In the 1930's, whooping cough's painful strangulation was epidemic -- in the 1940's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1950's whooping cough was uncommon.
- In the 1940's, paralytic polio terrorized every family -- in the 1950's the vaccine became widely used - by the 1960's polio was almost eradicated.
- In the 1950's, measles caused thousands to suffer pneumonia, encephalitis and death in the 1960's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1970's measles was rare.
- In the 1960's, rubella was a common cause of stillbirth, deafness and mental retardation -- in the 1970's the vaccine became widely used -- by the 1980's birth defects from rubella had vanished.
- In the 1970's, H flu meningitis and epiglottitis were seen every day across America -- in the 1980's the vaccine became widely used -- by the1990's deadly H flu was close to eliminated.
And similar stories can be told for shots against pneumonia, chicken pox, Hepatitis B, mumps, etc.
In fact, shots are so important that even the most vocal vaccine avoiders swear they're not "anti-vaccine." Unfortunately, their actions make a travesty of their words. With alarming websites and a relentless, multiyear, media blitz they have single-handedly unleashed a huge vaccine backlash. They've shredded decades of public health investment and triggered a surge of "shot-phobia" that threatens to add epidemics of infection to the tragic rise of autism that already weighs so heavily on children and families.
The coming danger of this anti-vaccine campaign is seen all across the county. Doctors daily encounter fearful parents doubting the safety of vaccines. The New England Journal of Medicine reports a doubling and tripling of parents getting vaccine waivers for their children. The LA Times found that over 50% of children in some schools had asked for exemptions to avoid all vaccines.
This is of grave concern because disease outbreaks can start when as few as 5% of kids in a community skip shots. Recent Colorado studies found that children who delayed shots were 6-23 times more likely to get whooping cough and 22 times more likely to get measles. And, many more may fall seriously ill if this trend continues.
Parents who sidestep vaccines may do so because diseases like polio and whooping cough are so uncommon. But, the great irony is that the only reason these killers have become so uncommon...is because other moms get their kids immunized.
In my next blog, I'll respond to 4 more of the standard arguments of vaccine avoiders (3 flawed...and 1 reasonable). Then, in the final part in this series, I'll discuss the increasingly scary possibility that autism is triggered by a common chemical exposure.
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You expect us to accept the judgment of a pediatrician at UCLA over that of a television celebrity and former Playboy centerfold? What do you take us for, intelligent people?!
Keep in mind "well baby" visits are a pediatrician's bread and butter. It's unlikely a pediatrician is going to be objective when it comes to vaccination because a widespread belief vaccinations aren't as safe and effective as they're touted to be could threaten his ot her livelihood. Other people can afford to be objective.
Thanks for proving my point.
Any industry that donates $166,100,653 to politicians since 1990 and peddles its money and connections like a web through academia and government deserves to be consistently doubted ... and certainly brings into question the impartiality and objective nature of its "science" and should expect a reduction in public trust.
Reducing the people concerned to "a television celebrity and former Playboy centerfold" is certainly not an accurate statement.
THANK YOU HUFFPO. FINALLY. An article like this has been a long time coming on this site.
My young son was frequently in the hospital for asthma attacks until a specialist prescribed several drugs (Advair and others) to be taken multiple times per day. After a several months we saw an item on CNN regarding a link between long term use of these drugs and early death (late teens - early twenties).
My husband and I spent months researching this with our family doctor (a general practitioner). We learned that most medical schools receive funding from pharmaceutical companies. Most drug studies in the US are tied to pharmaceutical companies. Members of the FDA advisory committee that approves drugs have financial ties to pharmaceutical companies.
We researched asthma and natural remedies. Under our doctor's supervision, we took our son off all his daily medications and had him drink at least 6 glasses of water per day and switched from dairy to soy milk.
The result? He hasn't had an asthma attack in more than two years. We keep his inhaler on hand in case he experiences severe wheezing, but use it once every few months now instead of daily. And this is a VERY active boy who was the leading football player for his class and is the first 9 year old to make his baseball league's All Star team.
My advice? Do your own research, look at U.S. drug studies with a critical eye regardless of the "scientific results", and find a doctor with common sense that will assist you in finding natural remedies when possible.
And sometimes... go to prison when your baby dies from an infection brought on from severe eczema.
Nothing wrong with staying informed, but "natural remedies" are not always all they're chalked to be.
Huh? Natural remedies and alternative health care can also be a godsend. In 1999, when I was diagnosed with epilepsy, I told the neurologist he could keep his medications and I would find another way, and I did. Now it's 2009, and I've been 100% seizure free for more than five years, with no medication whatsoever.
Some studies show that a severe allergic reaction to roaches cna trigger asthma. Call yrou exterminator and clean those floors.
What are the odds that the "huge rise" in autism is actually a "huge rise" in being able to detect autism. It's like people saying that a hundred years ago people didn't have cancer. A hundred years ago people didn't really know about cancer, nor lived long enough to really suffer its effects. (You could even shorten the know part to about 50 years ago.)
I'm not sure why people need to vilify doctors for their own bad luck. It's a gentic lottery, me I'm going to have to fight hard not to develop prostate cancer, diabetes, and high blood pressure. Unfortunately I do not have a doctor or a faceless corporation to blame if I develop one of those disorders.
Autism could be gentic, it could be environmental, or it cold be a combination of both. I doubt however its due to a vaccine considering there is no proof other than hysterical mothers telling tales of woe.
Well said. The "rise" of autism is probably due to increased detection and knowledge. Also, autism is most definitely genetic, however, there are of course "nurture" elements as well. The brain is a very plastic thing. Twins may have nearly identical genomes, yet the genetic expression of these two individuals could come out completely different!
There may be some connection to the complete disappearance of the diagnosis 'feebleminded'.
Sounds like parents are going to believe what they want to believe in spite of scientific evidence. I am glad my kids are in there late teens and got their shots. I have known a few people who had polio and it isn't really that much fun to live with the after effects. It also isn't fun to pass German Measles on to a pregnant woman. What the good doctor has to say makes a lot more sense. There are a tremendous amount of toxins in our environment and seems like a much more likely culprit. I understand people just want to keep their kids safe but they will get a lot farther by feeding their kids mostly organic products. I suppose living more than 1/2 mile from a freeway would help as well.
Here's the spot to read the scientific evidence-
http://fourteenstudies.org/
http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=459
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/04/generation_rescue_and_fourteen_studies.php
http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=451
No it is emphatically not the place. http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=451
There are children with autism who have never had any vaccinations. There are children of the same parents who were vaccinated and some developed autism while others did not. Many will believe what the latest celebrity cries about on TV. Many believe that this is all a conspiracy by certain companies. I suggest that examining the facts and making an informed rational decision. My children were vaccinated and they are not autistic. I see them as the rule and not the exception. It seems that in this day and age there always has to be someone to blame. Nature is no longer responsible for any defiencies in people. It is always someone elses fault. Maybe that this is a naturally occuring event and that this is just the way it is. I know it is not sexy to think that way but maybe that is how it is.
There is a reason that the preservative in vaccines, thimerosal, is viewed as a culprit. It contains ethyl mercury and mercury exposure has been linked to autism. Thimerosal was introduced in 1930, about the same time autism was first described. As vaccines began being administered in combination, the acceptable level of thimerosal was greatly exceeded and the incidence of autistic spectrum disorders also went from 1 in 10,000 to a startling 1 in 150. Once they realized vaccines may be responsible, the first thing congress did was grant legal immunity to pharmaceutical companies who provided vaccines. It appears the majority of studies that have since been conducted were designed to prove that vaccines are not responsible for the alarming incidence of autism in our children, not to find the real cause. Stating that autism is hereditary does not explain the drastic increase and is intentionally misleading. All coincidence?
"All coincidence?"
Yep.
I'll admit I'm a conspiracy theorist if you'll admit your a coincidence theorist.
He didn't actually state that autism is hereditary.
Allow me to mention another disturbing correlation. The rates of autism have gone up precipitously since the introduction of Rock and Roll (especially Emo). Coincidence? Perhaps. But can we really afford to risk the lives of our children?!
Get your facts straight, please. Autism was first described in 1943. I get as much mercury from a can of tuna as I would in a vaccine. And the studies were designed to answer the question of whether vaccines WERE responsible. It was found that they weren't.
You're eating that can of tuna, not injecting it. That changes everything.
Thimerosal was used in the 30's
I'm glad you wrote this article, because it is sorely needed (judging from the user comments). Vaccine avoidance has become this paranoid hysterical phenomenom like the moonlanding-hoax believers, or UFO-ologists. I think we need a Huffpost article explaining science and how to think critically ...
The author needs to read the 14 flawed studies. You can find them at the generation Rescue website.
Where did the author get the 95 % thimerosal removed in 2002.???? Totally incorrect. Older vials in use in doctors' offices well after that date-some thru 2006. In 2004 it was added into the recommended flu vaccine for pregnanat women and babies over 6 MONTHS OF AGE.. Still remains in copious amounts in other childrens' and young adult vaccines.
MMeleck
The 95% was verified in audits of vaccine stockpiles conducted by the CDC in 2001 and 2002. By 2002 almost all of the supplies of relevant vaccines were of the thimerosal free variety. With most supplies consisting of thimerosal free versions, the rates should have fallen dramatically if vaccine thimerosal were a cause of autism.
Over time additional thimerosal free versions of vaccines were introduced. Today only a couple versions of the flu vaccine contain any measurable amounts of thimerosal. In those vaccines there are 12.5 or 25 micrograms (depending on dose size). That is not a "copious" amount. It would fit on the head of a pin. The flu vaccine is available in a completely thimerosal free version as well. The only other scheduled childhood vaccine that contains any thimerosal is one brand of the DTaP vaccine (in trace amounts).
Today, even if you include the flu vaccine that uses thimerosal, we are at pre-1960 levels of thimerosal for young children.
As for the 14 studies, people are free to read them. However, I would caution against anyone taking the biased claims that GR makes about those studies seriously.
"copious amounts"
Seriously?
Have anything to back that up?
The spokesperson for generation rescue also believed her child was a 'crystal child' or some such. The generation rescue website appears to be a portal to purchase alternative treatments, from supplements to others are quite quacked up with unsafe, unethical treatments. I can not understand how we are supposed to take people seriously that quote information from a website that uses fear propaganda, conspiracy theories, discredited sources of information and unscientific treatment.
My opinion, backed by reliable sources. If you want the sources, let me know I will post them. Again.
Guess Harvey doesn't know that when they reduced thimerasol content - they increase the aluminum. Another potent neurotoxin. Probably didn't read the studies either.
Always nice to have another doc tell us what's good for us. Especially after spending a night struggling to figure out where the funds for our next 'not covered by insurance' appointment is coming from for my two sons. (sure occupational therapists are really fringe therapy and all - it would just be nice to have my 9 year old learn to button his own jeans).
Vaccines are NOT safe - and the current schedule is the biggest reason in my opinion. I've learned that. My eldest got a VAERS listed "hot lot" Dtap at 2 months and screamed for years after. Just look at the Gardasil victims - you know, the ones that are OLD ENOUGH TO TALK and TELL US what happened to them?
Only thing that I agree about in this article is looking at EDCs too, but that concern falls far below vaccines. Dr. Karp sounds like a nice man -he really does and I'm sure he means well, my uninformed pediatricians were really nice too. The science has NOT been done so please stop telling us that it has.
"Always nice to have another doc tell us what's good for us."
Yeah, those crazy basta rds with degrees and facts and "knowledge." How dare they act like they know what they're talking about.
They can't afford to be objective on this issue because their income depends on "well baby" visits.
degrees, facts and knowledge LOL. Well, we all know facts and knowledge change over time don't we? I mean really - you can look at what the media allows to be printed to come to a sane conclusion on that subject.
And I guess you have never had a doctor with a degree and knowledge and facts totally screw up and espouse bogus info based on what they read in the bought and paid for journals? A year before the first of my sons was diagnosed with autism - my doc swore that thimerasol had been removed from all vaccines in 2000 (completely incorrect, though it has been reduced greatly, once the old ones expired that is)- right before we all got our still fully thimerasol laden flu shots.
Fact is - doctors are not gods and they can't read everything either. I'm not mad at the docs so much as the industry that is looking out for their bottom line first and foremost. I did everything the docs told me - now 2 out of my 3 kids are suffering greatly. And our entire family does too.
Believe me, if someday it comes out that making your kids eat broccoli is the real reason behind autism - I will be ecstatic. I would love to have the guilt lifted - based on what I saw in my sons, their issues started immediately after vaccination. And I'm the one that held them down for each of their shots.
Broccoli however,
Not to *up* on vaccines and their ingredients are you? Thimerasol is a preservative, aluminum is an adjuvant.
sure, this is vaccine 101, and your point is?
mine is that they decreased one known neurotoxin and increased another. Hmmm...Now why would they do that?
As an autism researcher, it's nice to see the easily falsifiable idea of vaccines causing autism finally starting to fade away. UNFORTUNATELY, more environmentally-based conspiracy theories that are completely unfounded in real science emerge in its place.
Autism is a genetic neurological disorder. If vaccines or some other chemical are indeed the cause, then how do you explain the consistent trend of boys being diagnosed with ASD 5-to-1? More and more evidence points toward certain genetic markers as explanation for autistic behavior.
Here's to hoping we stop traveling down rabbit trails that only lead to dead ends and start finding answers down the path of actual scientific evidence. No, it's not as sexy, but it will make an amazing impact on countless lives.
Hello lorenzboston-
You must be in the genetic research field -- because there is no other reason to endorse gene research )and no evidence of genes causing autism in YEARS of wasting our money looking)
amazing impact? just in your wallet you mean -------
That is completely incorrect. I recommend you consult The Neurology of Autism, The Neurobiology of Autism, and the Handbook of Autism and Pervasive Developmental Disorders; you'll have about 2000 pages of reading ahead of you, but it will amply demonstrate what is known about the genetic involvement. Genetic doesn't necessarily mean inherited. Perhaps you are conflating the two.
well i would say you're not much of a researcher if you don't know why boys are more affected. try reading some research on the subject. there's plenty if you bother to look.
Please share with us your wealth of information about why boys are more affected. Seriously, I would like to read it.
Physiological reactions to "toxins" are generally the same for males and females. If vaccines were the cause, one would expect similar response in both genders.
In NJ, it's 1 in 94 children. Way different than the national average.
And this is why we must wipe out NJ.
Well, it's one of the reasons. There are others. But I digress.
I have terrible memories of being vaccinated when I was a toddler. I ran out and hid when they tried to jab me.
I remember running down a corridor & hiding under a desk in a hall.
I watched feet, for who knows how long, before they found me. I just knew it was bad. They shot my doll & Dad, then me as I screamed.
Years later in grade school we were lined up. I vividly remember the morbid feeling of doom, as I looked at the faces of all the other children around me.
A doctor & nurses in white coats lined us up. It seems to me now, looking back as that child, it was similar to the fear that must have been in the hearts of holocaust victims, as they were lined up.
I just knew something evil was going on, even as a child.
Then my husband who was six years older, has his story where he tricked them into marking he'd received his up to date shots when he didn't.
This man who was my husband & best friend, now, has never even had common colds or any sick days I can remember in the 30 some years we lived together. The only time he ever had to use his insurance was for a hemorrhoid operation due to his stupidity of going over a small water fall in a raft.
His medical record will show the healthy life he's had & without his vaccinations being complete.
Mother nature gave us incredible immune systems & we've allowed them to be compromised, big time. The evidence is in & mounting.
We will soon get to the bottom of the truth because many knowledgable & influential people are finally paying attention.
"Mother nature gave us incredible immune systems & we've allowed them to be compromised, big time. The evidence is in & mounting."
Tell that to the 90% of Native American population that was wiped out in a few decades in the 16th century fom smallpox and measles. Tell that to more than half of the Hawaiians who died in a measles epidemic. Tell that to the 1 in 3 in Europe that died from the plague.
The ignorance and wishful thinking is mounting.
Can you explain why these stories, which are not verifiable, should take precedence over documented studies based on fact?
You realize you make it sound like you were being shot? "They shot my doll & Dad, then me as I screamed."
Your posts are rampant emotionalism, histrionics and blatant fear-mongering. Holocaust victims? Are you kidding me? You're equating vaccination with 6 million people being systematically exterminated? That's where you are going with this? Are you sure you want to do that? Really? You want to go that far? You don't consider that a bit much?
I was equating the fear factor. Please don't twist & spin my words.
Of course, had you not been vaccinated and contracted measles, mumps, rubella, polio, or any of those other diseases, you might not be around (or might be too disabled) to write your memories on here.
Oh give me a break. I had rubella, mumps and chicken pox as a child and that was no big deal. I now also have lifetime immunity to those diseases, which is something vaccinations can not impart unless one keeps up with boosters for life, and who does that?
How dare you. Today? Really? Are you aware what happened today in DC?
Your insensitivity knows absolutely no bounds.
So you were an alarmist who got scared for no reason even as a toddler? Amazing.
Is this kind of "logic" genetic, or it it caused by something in the environment?
Perhaps overexposure to quack medicine explains this kind of wackyness.
When it comes to vaccines, there needs to be more reasonableness on the part of the people giving them. Don't push Hep B on newborns. They don't need it until they are a few months old. and go to the 12 shot regimen I had hen I was a kids ( I am 31), instead of the CRAZY 36 schedule these days.
If you can't see that there are 36 vaccines now instead of the old 12, just to make phara BIG money, you are nuts.
I was offered the Gardasil vaccine too recently. I am a 31year old woman, who is married. Why in the world would I need that? At this point in my life I either have HPV, or I am NOT going to get it.
Why is it that home schooled children- who don't get vaccinated - don't become autistic?
Also the Amish.
The entire point the poster is trying to make is that Autism isn't caused by vaccines. Rather they are caused by the use of Plastics. specifically Endocrine inhibitor releasing plastics. Basically you're causing your child brain damage every time you heat milk in the microwave in a plastic bottle to feed them. It's easy enough to avoid. Use glass bottles. Home schoolers are usually a bit less mainstream in their habits, and the Amish are probably less likely to use plastics. Heck the Amish wouldn't be using plastics at all because plastic was invented after their social system was setup. It is an interesting piece of research and would certainly explain the rise of Autism/ADHD in recent years. As traditional family units have broken down people have moved towards convenience in the form of microwaves and plastic food containers. Stuff like plastic water bottles can also increase the ammount of these inhibitors that are consumed.
Wrong. There are amish with autism. Your less-than-intrepid anti-vax reporter just didn't look very hard. And some of the amish do get vaccinated, and there is no difference in the prevalence of autism between groups.
Where to begin here?
1. Are you saying no home schooled children become autistic? I'm sure that is wrong.
2. Homeschool children do get vaccinated. Maybe not all of them, but I can promise you that some of them do (because some of them are my siblings- and they're not autistic for the record).
3. Not many kids are going to any school-- home or public-- in their infancy, when many of these vaccines are given.
My home-schooled child is fully up-to-date on his vaccines. Where does this myth come from?
It comes from Olmsted, mostly. He takes unverified anecdotes and reports them as fact.
My homeschooled kids were vaccinated. I know only one homeschool family that refused to vaccinate. One of their unvaccinated kids is autistic.
Both points are just wrong. Whoever told you that home schoolers and Amish don't have autism is wrong. You should discount anything you got from such an unreliable source.
Also, you should know that some Amish DO get vaccinated. The Amish churches are not monolithic on this subject.
Where is the proof that home schooled children who are not vaccinated do not become autistic?
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