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Henry Blodget

Henry Blodget

Posted: April 15, 2010 12:19 PM

Another Reason Most Day Traders Are Deluding Themselves

What's Your Reaction:

One of the biggest delusions many small investors suffer from--from casual mom-and-pops to full-time day-traders--is that the market is something like a level playing field.

It's not, of course.

The average institutional investor has resources and information that the average small investor can only dream of.

These include:

  • Multi-million-dollar research budgets
  • Full-time traders and analysts with years of experience and relationships all over the industry
  • One-on-one and group meetings with the managements of several hundred companies a year
  • Deep networks of industry contacts that help them sniff out any hint of fundamental change
  • 30 brokerage firms calling them all day long with every tidbit of information they unearth
  • Quantitative and technical models that allow them to analyze more in seconds than a casual investor can analyze in a year
  • Instant trading execution, sometimes provided by computers co-located at trading exchanges
  • And so on...

What they also have, as everyone was reminded this morning when news broke that Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta is under investigation for passing inside info to Galleon's Raj Rajaratnam, is friends.

It doesn't matter how vigilant the SEC gets. There is simply no way to police facial expressions and body language. When you're at a cocktail party with your buddy who knows what is going on inside a particular company, you don't have to be a mind-reader to get a good sense of it yourself.

The buddy doesn't need to tell you anything specific. The buddy doesn't need to pass you secret confidential documents. The buddy doesn't need to give you hand signals. All the buddy has to do is look at you in a certain way. To paraphrase the old saying, a facial impression is worth 1000 words (and it also has the convenient feature of not being persuasive evidence in court).

Facial expressions don't have to just come from buddies, of course. When you're meeting one-on-one with a CEO, you can learn more from the way a CEO responds to a startling question than you can from a thousand page SEC filing. And no one will ever complain that you've been given material non-public information--even though that's just what you've been given.

Unless all personal contact between executives of companies and investors or agents of investors is banned (which it obviously can't and won't be), this type of information will continue to provide professionals with a valuable edge. And only a tiny portion of it will ever be declared illegal or prosecuted--in part because it's not against the law.

Don't miss: 20 Tax Facts That Will Make Your Head Explode

 

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FoonTheElder
Always choosing between the lesser of two evils
12:22 PM on 04/16/2010
In other words, it's a highly manipulated game and unless you are one of the manipulators, all you are doing is gambling in a dishonest casino.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sinick
11:29 AM on 04/16/2010
Hey everybody!

Don't forget about the mega computerized systems that are in place and physically located as close to the source as possible so that the mega firms capture data a fraction of a second faster than their competitors.

George Orwell et. al. couldn't have dreamed of what is going on today. The bottom line is that day traders don't stand a chance.
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10:25 AM on 04/16/2010
Don't forget all those big investments in algorithmic trading technology. These days, the name of the game is "high frequency trading" -- big trading firms with IT departments programming powerful applications that take thousands of trades within seconds backed by huge leverage.
Progressives-Unite
Never vote against your interests.
10:19 AM on 04/16/2010
Before taking advice from this sage I would suggest you google him and check out his stellar career as a technology analyst for Merrill Lynch during the dot com bubble.
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lyingtruth
A lie is something a voter can believe in!
12:01 PM on 04/16/2010
If somebody doesn't know who is already they shouldn't be trading. But this is warning not advice.

The fact is that you are making money on just about anything that you bought 1 year ago...!
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robadeaux
Your labels have expired....
10:03 AM on 04/16/2010
And to think how many peoples retirement money is tied up in the rigged casino called the stock market. Money they can't afford to lose. Not to worry, they aren't 'losing' it. It's being stolen from them.
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Carl Caroli
Give peace a chance
08:33 AM on 04/16/2010
Include the fact that even if you have an expert investing for you, the larger your account the better your returns tend to be, again giving unfair advantage to the big players and the scraps to mom and pop. Investing in the stock market has become a high stakes gambling operation and has nothing to do with investing in our country. Since buy and hold died, investing in stock is no longer a safe place for Americans to grow their future. Sadly, the best approach now is safety - bonds, and cd's.
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Guscat
09:44 AM on 04/16/2010
With the low interest rates we are experiencing bonds may have significant risk if and when rates increase.
06:20 AM on 04/16/2010
People should embrace the risk of investing. As painful as failure is it's like the track, somebody's gotta win.
02:18 AM on 04/16/2010
The information assymmetry is built right into the system. That is why there can never be - and will never be - an efficient market.
And once you understand this, you will see that the 'free market', where everyone has the right to participate and everyone the same chance of being successful, is just another propaganda lie right out of the Capitalists' playbook.
02:07 AM on 04/16/2010
retail is buying what THEY are selling and selling what they are buying-its all market psychology and we are doomed to repeat the same over and over again-even though i was right when Ford was a dollar last year to buy as much as one could-those opportunities only come a few times in a lifetime
11:19 PM on 04/15/2010
Which is why the graphs they ALWAYS show where the 'stock market' outperforms all other investment vehicles is bogus.

There should be 2 curves for the 'stock market'. The industry-player return which includes Wall Street employees, and the retail-investor line, which has people like me, whom I refer to as 'the sheep'.

There's no doubt the 'industry-player' curve would be higher than the retail investor's curve. The question is, 'how much higher'?

Then, when you know the actual returns for the retail-investor 'stock market', the question becomes, 'Is this incremental gain worth the risk to principal I am taking?' I don't know the answer, but that's one Hell of a question.
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CFAmick
11:10 AM on 04/16/2010
Very good question.
11:02 PM on 04/15/2010
And the author's point is..?
02:19 AM on 04/16/2010
That normal people have no chance in succeeding in this 'free' market.
07:07 PM on 04/16/2010
Of course we have a chance - not a fair chance, but still a chance. Most; if not all day-traders, probably understand that the game is fixed, but there are no sidelines in this game. Everyone's money is in the field of play. You are in the game regardless of your desire to participate. The best you can do is try to account for the 'fix' when making your moves.
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budanatr
US Expat in EU
07:22 PM on 04/15/2010
The game is rigged the same way it was in the 1920's. Smaller investors provided the gravy that the large investment houses lapped up every day. Poor Grocho Marx could have told you.

Then came the reconning in October of 1929 and the richest still remained wealthy.

History keeps repeating itself and so few seem to learn.
History keeps repeating itself and so few seem to learn.
History keeps repeating itself and so few seem to learn.
History keeps repeating itself and so few seem to learn.
11:34 AM on 04/16/2010
Bring back the Fairness Doctrine and start seeing America heal.
05:01 PM on 04/15/2010
With all the resources institutional investors have, they still can't beat the market on an after expense, after-tax basis.

The average investor can avail himself of index funds, the only weapon he needs to beat institutional investors.
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07:01 PM on 04/15/2010
Can you please provide links to studies supporting this assertion?
07:11 PM on 04/15/2010
wall street = las vegas = parasites suck the losers dry
09:57 PM on 04/15/2010
There is copious evidence that only 25% of mutual fund managers beat their respective benchmarks (S&P 500, S&P small cap etc.) The reason that seems to have the most validity is that when they deduct fees & expenses (some say graft) they cannot overcome that hit to your bottom line. Thus, index funds, just "buy the market" & pay usually less than 1% management fee as opposed to 3,4, maybe 5% for a pro stock picker. I am sure the good ones are worth every dime they are paid, the trick is to find an exceptional fund with ( & this is CRITICAL) a good LONG TERM track record. This is only a starting point (I've been an investor for close to 40 yrs.) Don't get greedy, singles & doubles so to speak. Index funds are a good option. Get invested & STAY invested, The losers in this last meltdown are the folks who sold out low. Stay disciplined, it's easy when the market is up, real discipline is when you continue to buy in a falling market. Those folks are now being richly rewarded. Good Luck!
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ScreenName05
04:53 PM on 04/15/2010
Actually there are simple ways to beat the market. First don't buy stock or junk bonds. Buy quality bonds. If the bond goes up suddenly then take advantage and sell (take the capital profit), if it goes down or just stays level, take the dividend and hold on until maturity. If you don't want to even take that much risk, buy CDs when the interest rate is higher and sit on them. You either make a lot of money or you make the maturity value, but you never lose. The losers are the ones who think the stock market is anything but a casino, and that they have more than a 3% or so chance of winning.

And by the way, over anything more than 10 years the bond market has always out performed the stock market. On a very long term, like from 1932 to present it has outperformed the stock market by a considerable amount.
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davemartin7777
"Ha ha ha... ah" -Mitt Romney
07:30 PM on 04/15/2010
Just wondering, what's the value of a high interest CD when the institution goes under?

I was reading on the Motley Fool about a guy that bought a ton of 6% CDs a couple of years ago, all the banks he bought them from are gone.
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sfsmurf
proud San Francisco progressive
09:21 PM on 04/15/2010
If he kept within the limits of FDIC insurance, he wouldn't have lost a cent from a bank failure.
09:32 PM on 04/15/2010
Hopefully they bought FDIC insured CD's These are backed by the Federal Gov. so your Motley Fool examples should have been paid in full + interest. They were insured up to $100,000 per account but that was changed to $250,000 during the meltdown in 2009. Check with your institution to be sure. You won't get 6% tho (not FDIC insured anyway) . Good Luck.
04:46 PM on 04/15/2010
Funny.

Even with all the advantages you list, MANY hedge funds and mutual funds manage to underperform the market.

How do they do it?
06:49 PM on 04/15/2010
Because they are humans who panic and sell out of fear rather than ride out normal fluctuations. And they get paid huge sums of money to do it. You could hire a chimp to pick at random and do as well or better than the average trader. Actual studies have shown this.
07:12 PM on 04/15/2010
better liars perform better than worser liars. wooopdidoo!