Counting Chickens, Joe the Plumber and the Republican Closing Strategy

John McCain lost his final opportunity to convince 30 million people to change their mind about their support for Barack. Since most polls are showing support for Obama has crossed over 50%, McCain has to actually change minds now for him to win. There simply are not enough undecided voters in the key battleground states.

Ahh but that sounds too much like I am counting the proverbial chickens before they are hatched. So what are we left with in the final few weeks? The McCain campaign and the RNC will likely focus on a few major issues:

1) Joe the Plumber and taxes -- Joe freshens a familiar and tested Republican message frame that paints Democrats as tax and spend liberals. That message frame is going to be front and center for McCain over the next two weeks.

Our Response? -- Joe seems sensible and sincere and at first blush his concerns about taxes seem compelling. But then come the details.

If he buys the plumbing business and it grosses more than $250k, that is certainly not his tax liability. He needs profits more than $250k to be affected by the Obama plan. 97% of small businesses never get there because there are so many expenses to deduct that tax liability is always limited. There is only a 3% difference between Obama's rate and McCain's rate on anything more $250K. So even if he made more than that, it would likely be offset by additional benefits that Obama's plan offers. Namely a per employee tax credit for new employees and the elimination of Capital Gains for small businesses.

And very importantly, the Obama health care savings and benefits to small business would more than make up for any modest tax increase.

All combined, Joe the plumber is better off with Barack Obama. (Could someone explain that to him please?)

2) Democrats can't be trusted to control all three branches of Government -- this message frame worked for Republicans in 1994. The theory is that if Dems are in charge they will act like drunks at a host bar and spend too much money.

Our Response? -- Speaker Pelosi has already started talking about fiscal responsibility and Barack Obama has committed to a philosophy of Pay as you Go budget management. These are important points to emphasize. It is also worth noting that the entire health insurance program being proposed by Obama could be paid for with a year of the Iraq War budget.

3) The Wedge issues -- Gays, Guns and God. There isn't much talk about the wedge issues this year. But generally there isn't in the national media. These wedge issues have always been used by the Republicans in their ground game. And it happens around now with just a few weeks to go.

Our Response? -- American attitudes have dramatically shifted on these issues in the last few years. Not only is more of the country both pro-choice and pro-gay (well at least not anti-gay), there is lots of evidence that concern about the economy trumps all this year. The LGBT community is fighting for our political lives in Florida and California with anti-gay ballot measures. But it seems to be a regional rather than a national fight. Nonetheless, Dems must be ready to defend our real family values.

In all, there is not much new in the Republican playbook this year. And that continues to be their real problem and our real opportunity. But that playbook has worked for them in the past, so I can't let myself count those chickens yet.

Read more reactions to the Obama-McCain Hofstra Presidential Debate from HuffPost bloggers

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Comments

[SusanBR]

I'm a little curious about the share the wealth comment that has some voters concerned over Senator Obama's strategy. Isn't Senator McCain suggesting a similar concept with his idea to tax our employer health benefits and use those tax dollar (spread those around) to give people the $5,000 he speaks of as his concept of a health plan? David Gergen's (sp? sorry) comment this morning on CNN was well taken with me too. He suggested there's already been a redistribution, but in the other direction. It seems to me, in what I've witnessed he's correct. Look, I'm not a disgruntled lower income citizen. Our family will not be receiving a tax break from Senator Obama's plan, nor would we have our taxes increased. Apparently, he feels we're paying our fair share already. We probably agree, although hey, taxes aren't fun for anyone. I do feel strongly though, our middle class has to be firmed up, strengthed and inspired. We're all in the same ship, no lifeboats, all in the same ship. We have to find a way, a balance or we're all going down.

[ched]

To Hillary's No. 2 (the fear that dem control of all branches will lead to profligate spending), I would add this: without overwhelming majorities in both the Senate and the House, the bold action required to get us out of our present mess will be stymied. Using the filibuster on everything and anything, McConnell and the obstructionist Senate rethugs have made it nearly impossible to enact so much as a resolution without supermajorities. Likewise, as demonstrated just a couple weeks ago during the rescue negotiations, getting House rethugs to follow even their own leadership is like trying to herd cats. The House is home to the craziest of the crazy right wingers, and we've got to eject enough of them to get a working majority if anything is to be accomplished.

That means if you live in a district with even a moderate Republican representative, you must send him or her packing, even if he or she seems to take care of your district well enough. This year, "good enough" won't cut it.

[JoeSausage]

Why is the press giving so much attention to this "Joe the Plumber" stunt? What an over-the-top fabrication! So the Republicans duped another stupid person into being a pawn. Yawn! This is a total diversionary tactic. The guy ambushes Obama, on camera, and then shows up in John McCain's debate rhetoric 21 times the next day. Then is the star of a Republican ad the day after that. And becomes McCain's #1 talking point. It's beyond transparent. And yet the press is yammering on and on, diverting attention away from the ugliness and hatred that really surrounds the McCain campaign. It's one thing for the Republicans to dupe Joe Six-pack. We know he's a dullard. But the media? Are they all just dullards too?

[PoliticalPartyPooper]

"In all, there is not much new in the Republican playbook this year. And that continues to be their real problem and our real opportunity."

Hilary,

The only real opportunity any American will ever have is to stop letting our political parties do our thinking for us, and become independent of political parties altogether.

But if you need that political party nookie to suck on, you go right ahead. Just don't complain to me or any other independent when your party continues it's history, along with the republican party, of putting itself first, and you and we citizens somewhere WAAAAAAY down in the pecking order, right after their retirement pensions and far beneath the lobbyists they get on their knees for.

As far as I am concerned, anyone who supports a political party supports traitors. I'm convinced our founders, such as George Washington and Thomas Jefferson would have seen it the same way.

[milo h minderbinder]

Crack a history book. Jefferson STARTED one of the first political parties.

[Pupadup4oBama]

Excellent post - very uplifting - Oh, and I BEE-LEEEIVE Joe the Plumber DID say he wouldn't be affected by Obama's taxes....ahhhhh (collective sigh of relief).

[Dap]

Dear Ms.Rosen,

That's why I heart ya, said with your usual eloquence and wisdom. Agape.

[waters96]

One brief comment regarding the third branch, the judiciary. Since Bush has had eight years to appoint conservative, out of the mainstream judges, it will take many years of Democratic administrations to even up that branch.

Regarding the legislature, 40 votes invokes a filibuster and blocks any legislation from coming to a vote. Since Lieberman and several others are Democrats in name only, it would take at least 62 or 63 Democrats in the Senate for the Democrats to have the ability to pass any legislation without Republican input.

Bottom line, even with President Obama and Democratic majorities in both houses, the Republicans can easily cause gridlock if that is their goal.

[pulpstress]

[ Regarding the legislature, 40 votes invokes a filibuster and blocks any legislation from coming to a vote. Since Lieberman and several others are Democrats in name only, it would take at least 62 or 63 Democrats in the Senate for the Democrats to have the ability to pass any legislation without Republican input.]

That is actually incorrect.

From uspolitics­.about.com­:

"By their nature, filibusters elevate visibility of the issue at hand and have, as a by-product, the potential to inspire compromise. A final vote can only be taken if 60 Senators agree; this is called a vote of cloture (vote to end the filibuster).

[...]

"In 1975, the Senate reduced the number of votes needed to invoke cloture to three-fifths (60) of Senate membership. At the same time, they made the filibuster "invisible" by requiring only that 41 Senators state that they intend to filibuster;"

[PoliticalPartyPooper]

waters96.

Let me help you understand something: You don't really want EITHER PARTY having complete control, and being able to pass anything they want without opposition. Literally, THAT IS THE DEFINITION of Totalitarianism; rule without opposition.

Are you so trusting that you believe your democrat party won't take advantage of this?

Maybe you'll realize your mistake in four years, when the political landscape in Washington is fraught with accusations of treason toward anyone who disagrees with the democrat party.

Believe it; it CAN happen.

[nypoet22]

the word is 'democratic' - using the incorrect word makes you sound quite troll-like, which would tend to make people unlikely to take anything you write seriously.

that said, i agree that unchecked power is a bad idea. fortunately a democratic majority would not be so unencumbered, since the supreme court is pretty stacked with conservatives.

[ev19]

Everyone here is focused on the wrong problem. The problem isn't Joe the Plumber or Larry the Cable Guy. The problem is Obama's revealing , finally a true, response to a legit question. Nobody wants to talk about the fact that Obama wants to "spread the wealth around", and so instead the focus on Joe Citizen and attempt to slander him so as to discredit his question.

[milo h minderbinder]

Are you living in a reality distortion field?

It wasn't a legit question at all. The guy lied and said that he was going to buy a business that makes 250K - he's not planning to buy it and the business doesn't make 250k.

The answer to the LEGIT question is a simple one:
"No, Joe. I'm going to CUT your taxes."

It doesn't speak much for McCain that he is using Joe's lie as the centerpiece for a new ad. And it really says something that the GOP can't find a decent example of someone who makes over 250k and would face a tax increase who would be sympathetic to the public, so they have to point to a guy who made up a story so he could play the victim card.

And for the record, progressive taxation has been "spreading the wealth around" for decades, it's not an idea Obama invented. The point Obama was making, and that you and the GOP obviously either missed or are ignoring, is that for a small business to do well, it needs customers. If those customers don't have money to spend, they don't patronize the small businesses. Tax cuts for the middle class HELP wealthier business owners.

[CyrusBeaucephus]

...Whereas the GOP likes to take money from the middle class and give it to the rich. So sorry but anyone who is afraid of Democrats being worse at managing the economy must have been in a coma for the last 8 years. The GOP has spread trillions of taxpayer dollars around to their pals in the military and financial sectors and America has nothing to show for it. I have never seen an economy this weak in my lifetime, or so many hard-working people falling throught the cracks Feel free to vote your fears, and we will do likewise

So sorry we are being mean to Joe. He does sort of seem like a fraud.

[noneIn2008]

Not much new from either party. We are only hearing "don't vote for the other guy" or Bush is bad.
2006 we heard the vote for change and nothing happened. Nothing. Promises followed by excuses, but no results. Expect the same from either Obama or McCain.

[milo h minderbinder]

In 2006, Bush remained president - with a stubborn and misguided president with veto power it was impossible to have change.

Change your expectations.

[PoliticalPartyPooper]

My expectations as an independent are that as soon as the democrat party has a fillibuster proof congress, a decent majority in the senate, and Mr. Obama as president, we will have a totalitarian government.

Think about it...the definiton of totalitarianism is rule without opposition. Where will the substantial opposition be? Nowhere; the democrats will be able to do anything they want.

This is why I say anyone who serves an office as a member of a political party is a traitor. They put their party first, and their MISTAKEN belief that their ideology really is what's best for the nation right alongside it.

You go ahead now, and keep letting your political party do your thinking for you. It must be nice to be a mindless partybot. All you have to do is keep believing that someday, your party will finally get to fully implement it's one hundred and fifty year old plan.

Good luck with that.

[CyrusBeaucephus]

Please vote for Nader or Barr, then, and let the rest of us deal with fixing America

[PoliticalPartyPooper]

Cyrus,

And just how do you propose to fix America?

By cutting taxes while we have record budget deficits and national debt? is that how think our economy will THRIVE? Good luck. It won't work, but when your ideology is 150 years old, and it's pretty much all you have to work with, you're kind of stuck.

Or, by fixing America, did you maybe mean fixing only the parts for the people who agree with your ideology.

I'm an independent, and I DON'T AGREE WITH YOUR IDEOLOGY. Better start vetting me right now. You wouldn't want someone who disagrees with Obama's plan to run free, would you?

Good luck finding me.

[Europa2]

Most people reading these posts will vote but what about the others? Neighbors, friends, family...Talk to them, walk with them, drive them, whatever it takes. The obsessed fear mongering crowd WILL be out there on November 4th. Do NOT think this is over no matter what the polls say. There is a lot of hypocrisy still out there and just plain laziness. We can only blame ourselves if we lose.

[feo]

Joe the Plumber my ass. The Republicans' favorite character has always been Larry the Lobbyist. And Evan the Evangelist and his son Billy Bob Born Again. And Amy the Anti-Choicer. And Warren the War Profiteer.

[zendem1]

And Lieberman the liar.

[Shieldmaiden]

LMAO.

[exasperated4]

I do think it is interesting that Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher just so happens to be the son of Robert Wurzelbacher, the son-in-law of--guess who?--none other than Robert Keating of the KEATING FIVE... unbiased, neutral, "average Joe" indeed...

[milo h minderbinder]

It's looking more and more like the two aren't related after all. I guess that's what you get when you jump on a story that is based on speculation with no actual proof.

[zendem1]

Like wmd's?

[BlueGorilla]

The Republicans are crying crocodile tears for the blue collar workers.Well lets just expose a little bit of rank,stinking hippocrisy here,and look at what the huge benefits the working class have gained while the newly self appointed "Workers Revolutionary Republicans ",have been utilising power on behalf of the proletariat.
Economically:for eight grim years the minimum wage never rose,prices did though,at the same time,jobs were exported abroad,to where labour is most akin to slavery ( China and India for example) ..in terms of welfare,well this has been hard hit,since the reps,pushed Clinton into deep benefit cuts.Remember,only the very rich can bum off the state.
Healthcare:This relates very much to the economy,as insurance premiums have grown well above the rate of inflation,and well above the non-rising minimum wage.Early death is a structured phenomenon,clearly related to class position..
As for the middle class,im afraid that they are just finding out,that they don't really exist.White collar employees were working class all along.Furthermore any U S blue collar worker ,who refers to themself as middle class,has perceptions,which are out of sync ,with workers, in other countries.
This deluded state called "false status syndrome"..by myself as ive just made up,seems to be a way of encouraging the notion,that you have similar interests to the very very rich.
As the Republican-lovin kleptocrats fly out of sight,with your money ,leaving behind a broken economy,the truth is plain to see...they never were on your side..

[apexfork]

Was there a memo that went out from the DNC to quash all references to spreading the wealth? In the last two HuffPo articles on Joe the plumber, and both dropped the wealth-spreading line from the story.

This was the key sentence of Obama's entire candidacy. In that one sentence, he removed all doubt that he believes that he should be spending Joe's money, rather than Joe.

That is not in Joe's interest, regardless of how the dollars of his specific case happen to work out.

[ErnestineBass]

On the contrary, ape x, "Wealth", as defined by your candidate McCain (obviously), means a yearly income of $5 MILLION and over.

Pay attention! 8-D

[CyrusBeaucephus]

ha ha ha you are so right

[alieninvader]

Until we get rid of taxes on gasoline, utilities, clothing and food, middle income people will always pay a disproportionate amount of taxes.

[pulpstress]

[ Until we get rid of taxes on gasoline, utilities, clothing and food, middle income people will always pay a disproportionate amount of taxes. ]

AMEN!

Over the course of a year, provided gas stays around $3/gallon (which it won't), I will spend over $200 in gasoline tax alone. And that's only if I don't drive to anywhere except work, church and AA meetings.