Counting Chickens, Joe the Plumber and the Republican Closing Strategy

John McCain lost his final opportunity to convince 30 million people to change their mind about their support for Barack. Since most polls are showing support for Obama has crossed over 50%, McCain has to actually change minds now for him to win. There simply are not enough undecided voters in the key battleground states.

Ahh but that sounds too much like I am counting the proverbial chickens before they are hatched. So what are we left with in the final few weeks? The McCain campaign and the RNC will likely focus on a few major issues:

1) Joe the Plumber and taxes -- Joe freshens a familiar and tested Republican message frame that paints Democrats as tax and spend liberals. That message frame is going to be front and center for McCain over the next two weeks.

Our Response? -- Joe seems sensible and sincere and at first blush his concerns about taxes seem compelling. But then come the details.

If he buys the plumbing business and it grosses more than $250k, that is certainly not his tax liability. He needs profits more than $250k to be affected by the Obama plan. 97% of small businesses never get there because there are so many expenses to deduct that tax liability is always limited. There is only a 3% difference between Obama's rate and McCain's rate on anything more $250K. So even if he made more than that, it would likely be offset by additional benefits that Obama's plan offers. Namely a per employee tax credit for new employees and the elimination of Capital Gains for small businesses.

And very importantly, the Obama health care savings and benefits to small business would more than make up for any modest tax increase.

All combined, Joe the plumber is better off with Barack Obama. (Could someone explain that to him please?)

2) Democrats can't be trusted to control all three branches of Government -- this message frame worked for Republicans in 1994. The theory is that if Dems are in charge they will act like drunks at a host bar and spend too much money.

Our Response? -- Speaker Pelosi has already started talking about fiscal responsibility and Barack Obama has committed to a philosophy of Pay as you Go budget management. These are important points to emphasize. It is also worth noting that the entire health insurance program being proposed by Obama could be paid for with a year of the Iraq War budget.

3) The Wedge issues -- Gays, Guns and God. There isn't much talk about the wedge issues this year. But generally there isn't in the national media. These wedge issues have always been used by the Republicans in their ground game. And it happens around now with just a few weeks to go.

Our Response? -- American attitudes have dramatically shifted on these issues in the last few years. Not only is more of the country both pro-choice and pro-gay (well at least not anti-gay), there is lots of evidence that concern about the economy trumps all this year. The LGBT community is fighting for our political lives in Florida and California with anti-gay ballot measures. But it seems to be a regional rather than a national fight. Nonetheless, Dems must be ready to defend our real family values.

In all, there is not much new in the Republican playbook this year. And that continues to be their real problem and our real opportunity. But that playbook has worked for them in the past, so I can't let myself count those chickens yet.

Read more reactions to the Obama-McCain Hofstra Presidential Debate from HuffPost bloggers

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Comments

[BarackMarley]

Joe the Plumber is a big time fraud. He's not even a plumber just a GOP operative

Read Why Here
http://newsone.blackplanet.com/elections/the-fraud-of-joe-the-plumber/

[Tazzie]

HIllary you were great on CNN last night. I really admire and respect your thoughtful observations and considered rebuttals to the conservative panelists. Keep up the good work.

[businessmom]

Taxes on small business will hurt the economy. I have 3 kids and my business is my 4th baby. I want it to grow. I want to hire more people. Do the numbers. A $250k profit is already taxed at 35%(fed)+8%(state)+4%(local). That leaves about $125k. Software consultants make about $100k. I pay another $15k in social security and medicare. I pay another $12k in benefits. I match 4% in a 401k. Without counting bonuses or overhead of any other kind, I am already in the hole if I hire someone. It's already hard to grow a business. Obama will make it harder to add jobs. Instead he wants to put it into the government (who manages our money terribly).

[Gmoney1]

Joe the plummer is a repub, has no plummer's license, owes taxes and made a remark with racial connotations to Katie Couric during his telephone interview (called Obama a tap dancer like Sammy Davis, Jr. ) WHY - so, let's get real - stop talking about nonsense - McCain loves nonsense and that's why he's losing -

[apexfork]

So he's racist for thinking of SDjr when trying to think of a tap dancer?

Really?

[Shieldmaiden]

I'm surprised he knows who Sammy Davis, Jr. is.

[alieninvader]

I guess you don't know what profit means. Profit is the money left after covering payroll, benefits, etc.

[milo h minderbinder]

Exactly. "businessmom" is a new account that copy/pasted this same thing to five different stories.

Considering how the numbers and claims just add up, I'm guessing someone made up a (poor) story and is pretending to be a business owner...just like old buddy Joe did.

[helpdesk12]

Obama is superficallly a socialist......and in his heart a Marxist. We all know that forty percent of his SO CALLED ..tax cuts for ninety percent of the country is a canard. WHen forty percent of working people DON't pay ANY federal taxes. ....he's giving handouts. Spread the wealth! God help this country IF he gets in. I don't think it is a done deal yet. Surely, there are some real thinking independets out there.. With the "Messiah"...Frank..Dodd...Pelosi unfettered...no checks...to the abyss we go!

[LiberalIncarnate]

Socialism is government control over ALL institutions. PERIOD. Take a class and figure it out.

You cannot have patriotism without a government or a country and you cannot have either without taxes! PAY your FAIR share and GET OVER IT!

Lastly, if you think that America is not your kind of place to live in anymore... let me offer some advice that was crammed down my throat in 2000, 2002 and 2004. MOVE! GET OUT! I am sure that there are plenty of Banana Republics out there whose shores you can wash up on.

[CBS]

We all know???? I think you should speak for yourself. If there is a canard it is your absurd assertion that Obama is a Socialist/Marxist. It looks like the McCain people (you) are so desperate they are going to take The Big Lie tactics of Bush and Rove to new heights. And in so doing they are sinking to new lows.

[feo]

Go back to school. Or at least go a library. Check out "Das Kapital." That's right, Karl Marx. In that book, Marx predicts that capitalism will evolve into socialism which ultimately wil evolve into communism (not sovieitization). Further, he predicts that capitalism will fail because of its inherent flaw; namely that one class will go too far in ripping off other socio-economic classes. That is, capitalists have no one to blame but themselves; too greedy, too short-sighted. In a sense, he predictd the modern Republican party and its excesses.

[LouisvilleLiberal]

It seems to have already happened. The fact is that the Republicans have done such a good job transferring wealth up to the upper class that there is no money left for them to take from the working class.....hence the "credit freeze".

Working Americans have no savings, no equity left in their homes, haven't gotten a real raise in a decade and they've maxed out their credit cards.

Wall Street is in a panic because they is no more money to squeeze out of us. Now, all of the sudden they realize that we are 2/3rds of GDP and we are broke.

Suddenly, they demand government "do something"......which is socialism.

[milo h minderbinder]

And in this post, "superficially" is defined as "not".

I guess when you get really desperate, you go back to what worked for that other Joe...Joe McCarthy.

[Shieldmaiden]

I hope Obama does spread the wealth. Or else we'll be spreading the poverty. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT??????

[Cowboylove]

The Spread the Wealth Comment can be effective if people do not understand the largest transfer of wealth has been from the middle class to the rich. In 1980, 90% of us in the middle class took home 60% of the GDP income. The top 10% took home 40%. Today, 90% of us share just 14%; the wealthiest 10% take home 86%. Middle class income has declined by an average of $2000. Top management has compensation about 50 times higher higher than their European or Asian counterparts. Therein lies the problem.

Also American social security is an upside down tax system, where the middle calls pays far more than the wealthy. The tax system must be made fair. We should lift the social security income cap, lower the tax rate to 4% by making everyone pay equally into the system, not just the middle class. A huge tax break for small business and most Americans, a modest increase to make wealthy Americans contribute fairly. Social security could be made solvent again and taxes would be more equally shared.

America is in trouble because of the massive transfer of wealth to the the top 10%. For America to remain strong, there must be a re-balancing of wealth. More must go to the middle class as it did before Republican trickle down economics came into play.

If people knew how unfair the tax system was, they would be outraged, but most don't know. Republicans would love to keep it that way.

[businessmom]

cowboylove, you need an economics class. You have obviously never run a business.

The top 1% of income earners pay 36% of this country's taxes. The bottom 30% of income earners don't even pay federal taxes. On top of our 35% taxes to the fed, we pay full cost for college tuition and do not get to take our children as deductions. And although the top 1% pays the most, none of the 1% got a $700 "tax rebate."

As a business owner, I pay a salary to each employee and then also match each of my employees social security and medicare/aid. I also pay full benefits and match 401k's.

Cowboylove, you need to learn to love your employeer who risked their own house to start a business so that you and he/she could have a job.

[cowboyjerkface]

So how are you doing under 8 years of Bush businessmom?

[milo h minderbinder]

If you're making enough that you aren't eligible for deducting your kids or get the tax rebate, that means YOUR income (profits, that's AFTER taking out business expenses) is really high. If you were making so little that you were worried about college tuition, you'd be getting those deductions and tax credits.

As McCain said, congratulations, you're rich.

[feo]

The top one percent controls 50 percent of the wealth; therefore, the top one percent should pay 50 percent, not 36 percent, of taxes. Suggestion: don't get your "facts" from Fat Limbaugh's website.

[mtnman]

Bet I've run a business far longer than you, Ms. "businessmom". True small businesses never come close to $250,000 profit - and if they do, they make damn sure that they buy as much tax deductible depreciating assets as possible so as not to pay tax on the profit and instead make their businesses stronger. If you somehow have a business that profits more than $250,000 per year, you should feel fortunate enough to pay your fair share of taxes.

[chantelle]

I believe that "Joe The Plumber" character was planted by the Republican party to confront Obama: thus giving McCain the opportunity to bring up the tax subject in the debate to highlight his objections.
It all seems so theatrical. Just their style.
It's hardly possible that Joe can be earning over $250,000 doing plumbing and if so, he is a very
successful plumber. Way above average in that field and therefore, should be able to pay the
taxes.

[zendem1]

If "Joe the Republican shill is working as a plumber he's doing it illegally.

[escorpion]

MSNBC reported today that Joe the Plumber doesn't have a plumber's license, and has a lien against him for back taxes. I don't think we'll be hearing too much more about Joe.

[dogberry]

Its all over but the cheating!

You missed the most important factor in the Republican closing strategy, the cheating. What you are seeing now in Ohio and other states with the organized attacks on ACORN is the last remaining possible winning strategy for the Republicans: voter intimidation and suppression, vote caging, scurrilous law suits and a general muddying of the water. They know now that they cannot win fairly but they would be happy to win by any other means possible as demonstrated in 2000.

[Rondo]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/joe-in-the-spotlight/?hp

- must read especially the last paragraph

[CBS]

Ayers, ACORN, and now Joe The Plumber. McCain cannot talk about his campaign in any other way than by throwing up these absolutely ridiculous smoke screens. He insults our intelligence.

[ej3]

There's more than one cup of Joe in the campaign this year. First the good one (Biden); then Palin's friend Joe Sixpack; last night Joe the unlicensed Plumber; and now in the McCain Robocalls attacking Obama for his terrorist connections the ghost of Joe McCarthy. And I almost forgot Joe Lieberman and MSNBC's Republican flack Joe Scarborough.

[rbloom]

A minor correction to your point #2 leading to a bit of a digression:
The election will not give the Democrats control of all three branches of the federal government, no matter how well it goes. The Judicial Branch is, and will for the foreseeable future remain, firmly in the hands of stalwart Republican judges.
This is a key to the Repubicans' developing strategy of opposition. All this ACORN stuff is preliminary jockeying to take the election into the courts again if somehow McCain manages to make it close. And the "I am a federalist" and "let the states decide" rhetoric coming from McCain and, especially, Palin is just warming up to challenge Obama's programs on constitutional grounds. This is what the Republicans did with FDR's programs in his first term.

[JLJL]

I am Ed the electrician and I want McCain to win for the following reasons:

1) I make less than $250,000 but would like all the rich guys to get the tax breaks.

2) I want $2,500 health insurance coupon in-place of company health insurance plan.

3) I don't want pre-existing conditions covered in my health insurance, and he is the candidate who will keep his promise on this one.

4) I want a deregulation guru for president who will bolster the economy by relaxing all the rules.

5) I want an extremely sharp VP that can solve the pressing issues facing the country.

A few weeks ago I was leaning more towards this team. What was I thinking. McCain's not the same man.

[KathyinBaltimore]

I'm going to go out on a BIG limb here and say that as a citizen of this great United States, I feel that it is my patriotic duty TO pay taxes!! Especially given the fact that my family is in that top 2% of wage earners. By paying a few more taxes, members of my community who are not as fortunate as I am will perhaps have a bit better healthcare and I will not have to watch yet another family struggle to care for a child with Down Syndrome or autism. And by paying a few more taxes, I won't have to hold my breath everytime I cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge here in Maryland. And by paying a few more taxes, my children and grandchildren will continue to enjoy Mother Nature's great abundance without the help of a gas mask. So here it is folks --- pay your taxes and pay them proudly. It's not something to avoid, but rather something to embrace!

[PaulL2]

I had a very successful ex-boss, who made plenty more than $250,000 per year. He told his partners, when they grumbled about paying taxes, that he was glad to be paying them, considering that the alternative was to not be making any money!

[KathyinBaltimore]

Yet another good point to be made! Thanks...

[gdcb1128]

Thank you. We must all keep our eye on the bigger picture. Life in this country and on this planet is about more than just each of us as individuals.

[standup2them]

Turns out that "Joe the Plumber" Is Joe Wurzelbacker from the Toledo event. He is a close relatvie of Robert Wurzelbacker of Milford,Ohio. Who's Robert Wurzelbacker? Only Charles Keating's son-in-law and former Senior Vice President of American Continental, the parent company of the "infamous Lincoln Savings and Loan." The now retired elder Wuzelbacker is also a major contributor to the Republican Party causes, giving over $10,000 in the last few years. He was used as a set-up. According to a source on this website. Just goes to show you can't trust McCain and his pals! Please let run this to all the newspapers and t.v news sources that are honest to the American public. Thankyou. This has to be reported.

[gop-out]

I've been spreading the word, but would like to know where you got this information.

[gop-out]

Republicans sure like plumbers. We have Joe the Plumber. Of course there is the White House Plumbers during the Nixon administration and so we can go full circle John McCain is a friend of G. Gordon Liddy a White House Plumber. Very curious.

[Springbirdgirl]

Please tell me you are joking. Where did you discover this and when will it be on the news?