Thinking about heading to the beach for the holiday weekend and expecting to pay almost $200 for gas over the course of a few days made me recall a conversation I had two weeks ago with McCain Campaign Manager, Rick Davis. It was at a party in his honor, so politeness and insider small talk was seemingly the order of the day.
Yet, when I was talking to Davis, he was charming, friendly and eager not to be caught in yet another discussion of Republican woes and summer houses. We actually discussed campaign strategy. Bob Woodward and I were standing with him and Woodward said "So Rick, does it all really come down in the end for McCain to Iraq and how we are doing there in the fall?" Rather than respond with vagaries or deflect the question, Davis actually talked us through his thinking. (Note to newbie journo self: hang around Woodward at Washington parties -- people like to tell him things).
Davis noted that with the political conventions taking place so late in the summer, the timetable for voters thinking about the election would be greatly affected by their summer experience. If they felt relief at having survived the summer financially, Davis reasoned, then their worst fears about the economy hadn't come to pass and they would "vote on national security" which favored McCain. Yet if by the end of the summer, they felt drained from gas prices and felt afraid and vulnerable that it was getting worse, then Iraq would fall away and that favored Obama.
His conclusion about how the issues will drive the campaign was unremarkable. But how he got there is curious. First of course, is that under the Davis scenario the outcome isn't much affected by the candidates or the campaigns. The most important factors were external. The second remarkable thing was that Davis was talking about the "perception" of the economy, not the actual economy itself.
I am pretty certain that the perception of the war in Iraq will continue to be troublesome for a majority of Americans by early September. And I am equally certain that the "perception" people have of the economy in early September will not hinge on a false sense of security due to a nice summer vacation. Economic security means a college education, health insurance, and most importantly hope for the future. People get that. Even if John McCain doesn't.
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Not a bad question to ask during a presidential campaign. Since my understanding is that Jonathan Last is a man of integrity, I assume he will soon be asking the very same question about John McCain. And given all that is out there about the flip flopping of Mr. McCain, I anticipate Mr. Lasts column on McCain will be more scathing than it was against Obama. At the least, his column on McCain will probably convince us voters to finally choose our candidate, not on the basis of their individual imperfections, but rather on where they stand on the war, on taxes, on abortion, on the rights of homosexuals, on national infrastructure, on the growing gap between rich and poor in America.
An average person will have many concerns........ unlike Mr. Davis.
Thoughts: while walking to Vote.
"There are talks of layoffs at work. Will I have my job for very long? Quick prayer."
"My sister is worried. She hasn't heard from her son In Iraq."
"It is really cold today.
BRRRR How can I afford to heat the house for winter?"
"The kids need new winter coats and boots. Check on sales."
"I am going to have to tell Maggie she can't go on the next school outing. Too expensive."
"Christmas is going to be a S T R E T C H!" "No Christmas Cards this year! Like last year."
"So far, we have given up cable, movies, meals out, newspapers, magazines, most driving.........."
"I heard one of the kids coughing this morning. Who? Doctor visit......will kill the food budget."
"Can I borrow some money?"
"Last week our Church gave away 60 Food Bags........ Hmmm"
"Hey! They want part-time help here."
"Look at the LINE............................... Oh my lord, I am going to be late for work!"
"Obama needs my vote and I need him to be President. I AM HERE TO VOTE!"
"Hopefully my warmongering Bush Loving Republican Congressman is out of his job
by tomorrow!"
"There's Sue. I hope her son is doing better at the VA."
NOVEMBER = ELECTION DAY=A DAY FOR A CHANGE!
VOTE FOR OBAMA!
The McCain campaign has nothing positive to offer us. John McCain wins only by distortion -- by creating the perception that Obama is not up to the job. The fact that Obama is ready to lead is besides the point. Reality never gets in the way of Republican objectives.
Hope for the furture means believing that your hard work will make a difference in your life. With Obama as president your hard work will make a difference alright, a difference in the huge amount of taxes you'll have to pay. Obama doesn't have one good idea when it comes to creating jobs and stimulating the economy. All he talks about is getting out of Iraq (which he won't be able to deliver on) and setting up expensive government programs that will accomplish little except to tax people making over ninety thousand a year. No matter how the summer plays out, Obama's financial strategy is a joke. People get that. Even if the Democrats don't.
Get off your high horse eliza, and actually do some RESEARCH about the two ideals. You will find that, under Obama, not only will the country actually not have to borrow any more money to add to the $10 TRILLION we're at now, but that MOST people (those not making more than $150,000/yr) will be paying LESS taxes than they do now!!!
You don't get it , big business is what drives this country. Your socialistic vision of happy households all making under 15O thousand and not paying a lot of taxes will not pay this country's bills. You can complain about the wealthy because they're successful but without their success this country would be in debt for a lot more than 10 TRILLION. Get off your bitter horse and deal with the facts. Obama isn't going to make this economy better by upping the taxes on the rich. And he won't make life better for the middle class. He will (if elected) make life better for himself and that's really what he's all about.
Your wrong. Check the numbers on Obama's plan to uncap social security. What do you think that is if not a tax ? And it will impact anyone making over ninety thousand. Obama's tax plans will also affect captial gains which impacts people who invest. Obama is no friend to the middle class.
The Republicans have been doing the tax and spend mantra for so long that they've boxed themselves into a corner. Instead of taxing and spending (or "paying as you go" the way that most of us have to) the government is now borrowing and spending. Who are we borrowing from? China! Turning a surplus of trillions into a deficit of trillions is no small accomplishment. I don't think any of us need to endure lectures on the economy, taxes, or fiscal responsibility from Republicans.
As for lifting the cap on social security withholdings, I'm with Obama. As Warren Buffet said, why should his social security withholdings be the same as his Secretary's? Given the surge of boomer retirements and the need to keep the system solvent for future generations, the current withholding cap makes no sense at all. It should be increased. It's not a matter of taxation as it comes back to you in the end...it's a matter of fairness and common sense.
Shorter McCain campaign: we got nuthin'.
He changes his opinion daily depending on the polls, the only thing he consistant on is his clinging to Bush. If Americans make this election close enough so that the republicans can steal another one what happens to us is our own fault.
I think that this election will be essentially a metaphoric fight between Voltaire and Napolean.
Voltaire sought to bring about equality by reducing the nobility to the level of the common man while Napolean sought to bring about equality by raising the common man to the level of the nobility.
More than two days to fill up the tank -- congratulations.