Sleepy in Washington

Occasionally, even an Op-Ed columnist of great repute gets something so wrong that his views literally beg for a rebuttal. Thomas Friedman writes in the New York Times today about Iran, and about (President) Obama's potential to negotiate with our adversary from a position of strength, or with "leverage", as he puts it. From where Mr. Friedman sits, in Bethesda, Maryland, Iran is looking "very Soviet" to him, a view that most Iranians sitting in Tehran, Iran, might disagree with. (Some of those Iranians, mistakenly I might add, are seeing Washington as somewhat Soviet these days.) The reason Friedman sees Iran this way is because of the precipitous drop in the price of oil, and he concludes that because of the bad economy, Iran will be under great pressure to negotiate with the United States on all matters of mutual interest; nuclear, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

While Friedman is correct in pointing out that Iran's economy is suffering, it is mostly because of President Ahmadinejad and his administration's mismanagement, which most Iranians understand. But as far as oil is concerned, consider this: in 2007, Mr. Ahmadinejad's government produced a budget for 2008 which was initially rejected by Parliament because it was partly based on higher revenues from oil than Parliament felt comfortable with, and Ahmadinejad was forced to revise the oil basis to less than $40 a barrel. Not $150. That's the number Iran was working with when oil hit $150 a barrel, so yes, the surpluses in revenue have indeed softened the blow of oil at $60 a barrel. But it should be remembered that under President Khatami, Iran's economy was considerably stronger, and Iran continued its nuclear program, its government subsidies, and its foreign policy strategies with oil at less than $20 a barrel, managing even to balance its budget. Assuming that one Iranian administration's economic mismanagement will force the Islamic regime to reconsider all of its long-term goals would be a fatal mistake, even more of a mistake than believing Iranian motivation and impulses stem from a "carpet bazaar" mentality.

Apart from the fact that it is an offensively colonialist and even racist generalization (and it matters not that the view is expressed to Friedman by an Iranian-American sitting at a think tank in Washington), it is far from the truth, and if anyone in an incoming U.S. administration is inclined to believe it, they will be in for a rude surprise if and when the U.S. and Iran eventually sit down to negotiate. Carpets may be Iran's best-known export after oil, and there is a section of the Tehran bazaar devoted to carpet sellers, but carpet salesman are viewed by Iranians much as we view car salesmen, or used-car salesman, hardly a view we would want the Iranians to consider representative of our politicians. (On second thoughts....) Anyone who has spent any time at all with the Iranian leadership; with politicians, diplomats, and the political class of mullahs, knows that they do not engage in "bazaar" tactics--far from it, in fact, for Iran has consistently shown over the past thirty years that some things, for example its national pride and its "rights" as they are keen to point out, are not now and will never be for sale. Not under any circumstances; not brutal war (Iran-Iraq in the eighties), not punishing sanctions, and not military threat by a superpower. Iran has managed to survive reasonably well under U.S. sanctions and pressure, and sometimes international isolation, for almost thirty years, and no future President of the United States should be under the illusion that he merely needs to walk into the Persian carpet store, "feign disinterest", and walk out with priceless concessions at a bargain basement price.

The U.S. may have more leverage with Iran under a President Obama, partly because he is not President Bush, but Senator Obama does not present "another challenge" for Iran's mullahs, as Friedman claims. I was in Iran in the late summer and into September, and every single Iranian politician (and mullah) that I spoke to was rather looking forward to an Obama presidency (and Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Parliament and a close advisor to the Supreme Leader publicly said so earlier this month). Iranian leaders do not consider "their rationale for being" resistance to a hegemonic American power; they will be extremely happy if America simply ceases to behave like a hegemonic power. Senator Obama indeed has an opportunity to end the "cold war" with Iran, but he will not end it if he believes he has more leverage than the Iranians do (umm.....Iraq? Afghanistan?), if he believes the drop in the price of oil will make the Iranians more likely to give in to American demands, or if he believes he knows the Iranians because he once shopped in a bazaar.

Thomas Friedman also rather gleefully tells us he "knows why" President Ahmadinejad is exhausted--again, it's because he's sleepless over the drop in oil prices. No, Mr. Friedman, that may be a worry for the President, but it is not his main concern. I spent some time the last few days with Mr. Ahmadinejad's Vice President, Esfandiar Mashaie, who was in New York on United Nations business. Mr. Mashaei, whose daughter happens to be married to the president's son and who is one of his closest aides, laughed off the reports of Ahmadinejad's "illness" and exhaustion. True, the president sleeps very little, but not because he can't fall asleep. And if Mr. Mashaei's attitude in my presence was any indication, the Iranian leadership is very far from believing that the U.S. might have some extra leverage in the coming months. Quite the opposite--Iranians believe they're holding all the cards now. Mashaie was almost gloating over the "end of empire", the "end of the American emperor", mainly because of the economic meltdown in the West but also because he and other Iranian leaders know full well that without Iran, neither Iraq nor Afghanistan will end happily for the U.S.

As for the little quip at the end of Mr. Friedman's column, about Arabs saying they admire Iran but polls show they wouldn't want to necessarily live there, what exactly is that revelation supposed to indicate? Why would Arabs want to live in Iran, a Persian country, with a different language (Farsi) and customs, and with a people who are in a different sect of Islam (Shia, as opposed to the majority Sunni Arab)? Why wouldn't Arabs prefer to live somewhere in the Arab world?

I've always felt that most Americans simply do not understand Iranians or understand their motivations, and this lack of understanding extends to the very highest levels of our government. I wrote my book "The Ayatollah Begs to Differ" in the hope that anyone who's interested to know more about Iran and Iranians, beyond the "carpet-bazaar" stereotype, might discover something they didn't know. Iran is perhaps the biggest foreign policy challenge that a new American president will face. I'm hopeful that he will not make the same assumptions about Iranians, erroneous assumptions that even "experts" make, that have so far led us nowhere. But Friedman is right about an opportunity for ending our cold war with Iran, and Mr. Obama, should he become president, would be wise to try to understand Iranians, beyond conventional wisdom and what the "experts" in Washington say.

Comments

[MSiddique]

Friedman, the self proclaimed expert on the Islamic world, and more specifically, the Middle East, is a writer with access in the world of so called pundits, but not much substance, as his often repeated simplistic views of the world, garnished by his even more simplistic acceptance of neo-liberal economic theories, neo-imperialism in the garb of globalization, and naive understanding of the impact of technology in the developing societies, etc., demonstrate. In recent months he has been trying to rehabilitate himself as a liberal after the dismal failures the foreign policies of the neo-cons (neo-fascist, really) that lead to the illegal war in Iraq of his shameless support of that ideology. He is an expert in nothing but in selling his flimsy theories. I wish he would find another line of work!

[mymatrix]

I was a Friedman fan until he made the case for this disasterous war. He was wrong and foolish and what a contrast to Obama's prescient 2002 Iraq War speech. If you know someone who is undecided, please give them a copy of that speech.

[Gib]

You nailed it!

[edva]

We are all human beings. We share one earth. Although subject to the tragic human afflictions os anger, greed, and ignorance, we can rise above them. The only survivable future is one in which we decide to get along with each other. Any sane person must eventually see this truth.

[Azita-ET]

Hooman,

Thank you for the informative and eye opening article. I agree that most people do not know Iranians well - if at all - however, judgements abound... But, I must say that it is to a great degree our own negligence in making an effort to introduce the culture and the mentality to the world. The present or past rulers of Iran (actually rulers of any country, in my opinion) never do represent or embody the true core of their peoples' culture or dreams. Politicians are often poor representatives of "People"! And given the clear and obvious bias of the western media - Thomas Friedman as prime example - only exacerbates the universal misunderstanding (at times intentional mis-interpreting) of the Iranians and their mentality, motivation and their deep desire for global peace. And most of all, their deep rooted and age old love and admiration for the American people, as demonstrated by their candle-light vigil in the aftermath of 911, where the outpouring of 1000's of ordinary people onto the streets of Tehran on the eve of that horrible tragedy, which cleverly, and conveniently gets ignored in the media. So, we are incumbant to let the world know our true aspirations, our love of humanity & dreams of a peaceful world...

Thanks again...
Azita

[Eyebank]

Mr. Majd's book is fantastic.­..I just finished it on a recent trip. Couldn't put it down. If Barak doesn't call in Hooman for some face time to learn about Iran he's missing a great opportunity. Hooman, I love your writing and you've truly interested me in Iran for the first time in my life. Thank you for this mental gift of understanding. I look forward to reading a lot more of your writing in future.

[fussygorilla]

Agree. it is a great article and enlightening for those who can understand what they read. But..... You, dear Eyebank. Instead of looking forward to reading more, why don't you just try to take a trip to Iran and see the country and its lovely and hospitable people plus all the historic and artistic sites you can see. Have a great time there.

[daveblume]

Very interesting article. Rather than commenting directly to the contents of what you have written here, I am appealing to you, and others concerned with relations between Iran and the United States to take more interest in the case of Esha Momeni, a graduate student languishing in Evin Prison without being charged. Esha, and American-born dual citizen, was simply working on a thesis project, researching issues related to women's rights in Iran. Her story is getting very little press coverage, while it has been revealed that the hard-liners in Tehran are planning to put her on television to make a false confession that she is somewhow an "agent" of the United States. It's outrageous, and needs the appropriate attention. Thank you.

[MatoSka]

There remains an issue that is invisible concerning Iran and that issue is its assaults on the democratic rights of Kurdish peoples. Recently, the Kurdish National Congress of North America released a statement regarding the actions of the Iranian government against women and children. The statement read in part: "By characterizing those who disagree with their political and religious agendas as munafiqeen’ or enemies of Islam, the Iranian theocracy have created a climate in which they believe it is righteous for them to murder those whom they suspect of being in violation with their way of thinking." http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc102408KNC.html

In discussions with Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria there needs to be a willingness to acknowlege and address the Kurdish national movement. Joe Biden is well aware of the status of Kurds in Iraq and at one time was an advocate of a federation solution for Iraq that recognized Kurdish autonomy. I would hope that Biden's grasp of the longstanding grievances of the Kurdish people would be a component of future US policy in the region.

Too many Kurds have been imprisoned, buried, gassed and forcibly relocated for their aspirations and demands for political representation to be disregarded or buried under illusions regarding the character of the Islamic Republic of Iran. "Amongst these women’s rights activists are two Kurdish women’s rights advocates, Ms. Hana Abdi and Ronak Safarzadeh, both age 21. http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc102408KNC.html

[dadw5boys]

IF THE USA BACKS OFF THIS AGRESSIVE WORLD DOMINATION LINE AND STARTS LIVING LIKE A CIVILIZED NATION WE WILL HAVE NO PROBLEMS.

[MatoSka]

I do wish the best for your five boys and certainly do not want them thrown into the fires of war in either Iraq, Iran OR Afghanistan. Neither would I think that if they were in danger as Hana and Ronak are in danger that you would ask people to ignore their pleas for help.

[brutus948]

Great post. Friedman doesn't know anything about Iran and has an Israeli agenda.

[PSM42]

Given Friedman's previous positions, I have to ignore his views. On anything.

Neither his new views on green energy, though his interview with Amory Lovins, on Youtube or via RMI, was highly informative. Nor his views on Iran.

The character of the person providing the information I need is vital in judging the trustworthiness of that information. I judge it by the views and opinions that they espouse. If those appear to me to be biased, incorrect, or just plain wrong, in all its meanings, then I have to find another source that I trust.

[MTOrtega]

How does having been a prisoner of war qualify McCain to be President?

During his imprisonment did McCain learn about economics for the 21st century?

During his imprisonment did McCain learn about the history of Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Russia, China?

During his imprisonment did McCain learn how 19th and 20th century U.S. policy in Latin America would have an effect on our relationships in the 21st century?

During his imprisonment did McCain learn about global warming?

Just what did McCain learn from his humiliating imprisonment that would help him be a rational President?

Strike before being struck?

Win at all costs?

Never again, will I be humiliated!

Some facts:
P.O.W for 5 years.
5 years = 43,800 hours.
5 years = 2,628,000 minutes
5 years = 157,680,000 seconds

- McCain was tortured.
- McCain lived with the threat of torture throughout his imprisonment.

McCain's mental health condition needs to be known.

Consider this:
- Did McCain reckless and impulsive behavior lead to his being shot down?

- Did McCain return from such a horrific experience in the same mental health he entered it with?

- How does the residue of such a horrific experience, hidden from view, express itself?

- How does such a horrific experience influence McCain’s world view?

- How does such a horrific experience influence McCain’s thinking process?

- What brain damage occurred?

- What would a McCain brain scan reveal?

[jazsabeti]

Great post Hooman. I am getting sick of all these ignorant redneck Americans running their mouth talking about Iran without HAVING A CLUE about that country & its rich history. Pls post more such KNOW IRAN 101 for Dummies, we need more posts like this to increase IQ of some of these EXPERTS!

Iranians are Persians u cluless EXPERTS,, they speak Persian & the country was NOT put together by British colonialist 60 yrs ago like MOST of the ARAB world and Middle East.

Iran has contributed so much to so called WESTERN civilization, philosophy, & religions ( most of which you THINK is Greek in origin) that it is rather DISGUSTING to see you people don't even know the basics of your beliefs & customs. As a token, remember that your Christmas is an ancient Persian Holiday, STOLEN & Adopted from us the Persians.

[Danny]

You confirm my intuition that the present administration only wants to antagonize Iran so as to enlarge the "war on terra". My feelings are that the Iranians must laugh at America, every day, for their simplistic, black/white view of Iran and other parts of the world. It'll be nice to have an informed and diplomatic presidency when we elect Barack Obama. And I hope, Mr. Majd, that you will have a spot in that cabinet.

[mommadona]

I do not care to "know" a country that places women under male-dominated theocratic laws and treats them like chattel.

I do not care to "know" a country controlled by a few old men dressed in dresses, living in the past, unwilling to give up their religious power over a nation's citizens, ruling like potentates from the medieval times.

It is against all human understanding.

There is no 'common ground' to even begin an educated discussion with this type of 'governing body'.

[Mnemanth]

It's against "American" understanding. Regardless of understanding, it's their country! If they choose to do something about it, by all means...bu­t it's not our place to tell them what's what. Goodness, look at us! Who are we to be telling anyone anything!

[ceti]

It's because of American meddling that Iran became theocratic in the first place, first by overthrowing the democratic government of Mossadegh, and then supporting the Shah and his torture regime.

The same thing with Afghanistan which was making major progress on women's rights in the 1970s, before the US began supporting the reactionary mujahideen.

And the US just destroyed the strongest secular state in the Arab World and replaced it with one dominated by religious extremists.

In not a single instance here, has the US supported the secular forces in the region -- because they have also been socialist. Instead, the US has like it has always done -- thrown in its lot with reactionaries, fascists, and oligarchs, and wingnuts.

[brutus948]

its funny that's probably how most of the world view our government. IE bush and his neocon cronnies

[jazsabeti]

EXACTLY!!!!

[earthandfire]

But, you have to care about the people that are suppressed. We have common ground with them. How to strengthen their voice through diplomacy is real issue. As it is happening in the US where not many people have had expectation of change (from power gripping to the real people) could happen is happening right now. (I'm not saying the political situation of the US and Iran are the same, but talking about necessary change of status quo.)
Drawing rigid "enemy line" between us and them is the assurance of fixation, not the way of change. That kind of fixation might be essential for business of explosives (difense contractors), or who believe armageddon. But, we know there are better ways.

[DarthVector]

Geez, sounds like Europe in the 1800's.

[dotmafia]

The fact that you do not care to "know" speaks volumes about who you are. Ignorant and uninformed are words which immediately come to mind.

I care to "know" as much as I can about a great many things, even things that I don't like or do not agree with.

[PrimusElijah]

Once again we take from an article as we wish. If you think Obama is a terrorist, this makes you belive that even more so, if you think he will be a rational balanced leader; this makes you more assured of that.
What I want to say is thanks to the author, who offered great insight into the working of the Iranian government and the thinking of its populace. It is refreshing to read such an article on a subject that has been painted in monochrome for too long. I like the use of the intellectual "colors".

[RiyazGuerra]

Thank you Mr. Majd for the article and the invaluable perspective that Western media often lacks when discussing Middle Eastern issues.

I would sincerely hope that Obama surrounds himself with Middle East Experts of your caliber.

Please feel free to post more about Middle East issues in the future at HuffPo.

[Clavis]

I look forward to a day when I can visit Tehran as a simple traveler, admiring the sights and sounds and enjoying the company of its people. I think a President Obama would help make that happen.

[Azita-ET]

Clavis,

Just wanted to mention that (much to my own surprise) I have learned, fairly recently, that there are 100's of Americans currently traveling & visiting Iran every year for tourism and education. There is at least one American tour guide - actually a San Fran Bay area University Professor - who arranges these trips. His name is Jerry Dekker. Also, an American friend of mine recently travelled there and has written volumes about his (again to my surprise) "Wonderful" experience and how he's looking forward to going back, etc. Anyway, his site where you can find his articles, is www.zirzameen.com, if you're interested in reading his stories. Just FYI.

Azita

[omenapt]

Many of the Americans are, indeed , aviation enthusiasts who enjoy riding on and photographing old Boeings and Soviet aircraft that the Irananian airlines have had to fly due to embargoes against buying the latest models of airliners.­. Really , almost a live "museum" of relics! Pictures I have seen of Tehran appear to make it robust and energetic, but of course air pollution is a problem. I have always enjoyed Iranians I have met!