Kentucky Derby: As in Politics, You Need a Horse, and a Theory

LOUISVILLE -- Once you come back here, as we did Thursday night, you remember what you used to know when you lived here but forgot: that everybody has to have a theory and a horse.

It doesn't matter if you are a Louisvillian, or a regular visitor, or a first-timer. You are required to pick a horse, preferably a semi-obscure one, and have at the ready a plausible explanation -- either impressively informed or simply wacko -- for your cool choice.

There are 20 horses in the Derby, and already I've heard tips and touts about a half-dozen of them. Soon I will no doubt have heard an argument for each and every one.

The Derby is like politics in so many ways. Someone runs. Someone wins. People contribute money and get their hopes up. There is a weird sense that somehow all of your problems will be solved and the world will right itself if only you find the right contender.

And then in two minutes the hopes and dreams of almost everyone are dashed, and the process starts up again.

There are many basic strategies for how to pick a horse. The following list is based on the combined buzz at two of the city's premiere restaurant/bars: a new spot called Rye, in an area called "NuLu," and another, part of the 21c Hotel downtown, called Proof on Main. (Whiskey themes are taking over Louisville):

• Bodemeister, 4-1. Everyone loves the affable and media-friendly Bob Baffert, and so they like the horse he's trained but not raced very often. If you are here and have no other theory, this is the default. The horse won the Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths, which is why he earned the top spot in the derby of conventional wisdom.

• Union Rags, 9-2. Michael Matz trained Barbaro, who won here and died tragically in 2006. Matz runs his horses more often as two-year olds. A lot of turf-writers like this horse and the trainer, and there is sentiment for the memory of Barbaro.

• Optimizer, 50-1. This longshot was being touted by a very smart out-of-town freelance writer who has traveled the world and won many awards. It's a cool bet because this horse will go off at very lucrative odds and is trained by the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, who has won many races at Churchill Downs.

• Hansen, 10-1. A Louisville businessman we met loves this horse, apparently for one understandable reason: Hansen is pure white, a rarity at the Derby and evocative of the white buffalo in the legend of the Lone Ranger.

• Gemologist, 6-1. Everyone knows the trainer Todd Pletcher, which is why this horse has some buzz.

• Sabercat, 30-1. I've know John Yarmuth for nearly 40 years, back to the day when he was a GOP Hill aide and then publisher of a city magazine here. Now, of course, he is the popular Democratic Congressman representing the city and surrounding areas. He knows his horses -- he was once part of a syndicate that owned what could generously be described as a racehorse -- so he thinks that he can spot a winner on sight. The other day at The Downs he saw Sabercat working out, and he liked what he saw. "He looked like such a smooth runner, I just liked him," Yarmuth said. So, he added, was the guy who won the national handicappers award last year.

• I'll Have Another, 12-1. Give what this weekend is going to be like, I'll mention this horse for no other reason than the highly appropriate name.

 

Follow Howard Fineman on Twitter: www.twitter.com/howardfineman

Comments

[hapiday]

02:00 AM on 05/06/2012

Lord please don't ask Romney anything about the Kentucky Derby. His usual response would be I have friends who own the horses running. The other answer would be on Ann and I have a couple of elevators for our horses to lift to a penthouse stables.

[tryagainandagainandagain]

01:59 PM on 05/05/2012

horse racing is animal CRUELTY
most of the horses live in a world of abuse and betrayal

[Socrmom]

10:39 AM on 05/05/2012

In any other equestrian sport a two year old horse would be just barely starting training. They are still babies.

[VodkaParty]

08:04 AM on 05/05/2012

My pick is “I’ll Have Another” – both in the race and when it comes to the Mint Juleps. But Is the Mint Julep the “Peeps” of cocktails? “Think about it. They’re booth sickeningly-sweet, consumed on only one day of the year and then actively avoided for the remaining 364. You be the judge. Here are my four favorite vintage Mint Julep recipes: http://thevodkaparty.com/the-mint-julep-is-it-the-peeps-of-cocktails/

[fullofmitt]

01:03 AM on 05/05/2012

Number THREE horse with Calvin Borel wins!

[thetruthhurts2010]

11:55 PM on 05/04/2012

Met Howard and his wife today. They were very nice.

[Pedestrian101]

11:07 PM on 05/04/2012

All poiticians remind me of the back end of the KENTUCKY DERBY winner.

[JEdgarH]

09:53 PM on 05/04/2012

Love your insight, Howard. I just love these TC races.

[tulsey]

08:07 PM on 05/04/2012

Apt metaphor. MSM needs a political horse race to generate ad buys. Where do you think most of the donations go?

[KingGlorious]

08:03 PM on 05/04/2012

They are such beauitful looking animals....

[Edy Williams]

06:50 PM on 05/04/2012

Animal Kingdom was a longshot who won last year! yes there is the favorites"Bodemeister & Union RaGS"! bUT HOW BOUT 30-1 "PROSPECTIVE !! tHATS A NICE PRIZE TO WIN !

[leftcoastindy]

04:08 PM on 05/04/2012

The 1% - Dont bet the farm just in case our 'horse' doesn't come in as planned (wink).

The Corporations - Make sure everyone gets a little, we have to hege our bets so we win no matter which 'horse' loses.

The rest of us - just give us the $2 and go stand over there. If your 'horse' wins, the steak house is through that door and your winnings should just about cover a decent meal.

[bahkey]

03:52 PM on 05/04/2012

My theory is, if you run like Secretariat you'll win the triple crown

[leftcoastindy]

04:09 PM on 05/04/2012

Except that didn't work for Man O War. Got stuck in the crowd in the Preakness I think.

[bahkey]

05:24 PM on 05/04/2012

Well then Man -o- war "didn't" run like Secretariat. Big Red always broke last into the first
turn except for the Belmont. Secretariat saved something for the final race Then showed the world what he could do without Turcotte using his whip. Go to you tube and watch all three. In the Preakness he goes from last to first "Right Now". And drove Sham into the ground. Lafete PinCay(sp) beat Sham like a drum the whole home stretch. And still lost ground. By time the Belmont came around Sham was totally beaten.

[Kay Wilhite Herman]

11:02 PM on 05/04/2012

He didn't run in the Derby. Too early in the season...not much in winter racing in those days. He won the Preakness going away as well as the Belmont.

[Edy Williams]

06:51 PM on 05/04/2012

yES, BACK IN 1973 WINNING BY 31 LENGHTS, QUITE A MIRACLE! lIKE TO SEE IT AGAIN, THINK LONSHOTS HERE HAVE AN EXCELLENT CHANCE!

[Louis Ruoti]

03:46 PM on 05/04/2012

Iv'e seen too many horses die tragically during a race.

They are bred and trained to perform at a level their bodies often can not sustain. Their nobility is leveraged for the sake of human pleasure and profit.

I no longer watch or support the "sport".

Think I'm going to give up voting also :)

[scsfoxrabbit]

03:43 PM on 05/04/2012

I still cannot understand why Americans like to run their horses on the very old-fashioned 'dirt/slop' when there are so many safer all weather track systems available - Tapeta, Polytrack,and even Fibresand???
A complete mystery to us Europeans.

[leftcoastindy]

04:11 PM on 05/04/2012

Traditionnnnn! Tradition!

[J T K]

12:52 PM on 05/05/2012

Fiddler on the Roof called, they want their song back

[Edy Williams]

06:58 PM on 05/04/2012

cOME TO THE kENTUCKY DERBY AT CHURCHILL DOWN'S YOU WILL BE THRILLED BY THE SPECIAL SONGS, & PRESENTATIONS. i WAS THERE, IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE WORLD TO SEE THEIR MAGNIFICENCE & SPLENDOR IN ALL THEIR FINEST ,SHINY GLORY!