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Howard Foster

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Republicans and the Hispanic Vote

Posted: 02/ 1/2012 3:57 pm

I hear the advice from the pundits over and over again: Mitt Romney needs to appeal to Hispanic voters. Therefore, he should stop talking about illegal immigration. The premise is that Hispanic voters favor high levels of illegal immigration and will not vote for a candidate who wants to end it. But what empirical evidence is there for this assumption? In the surveys I have seen Hispanics rate immigration as a minor issue. And that does mean that those who care about it want more illegal immigration. So the premise that downplaying tough talk about cracking down on illegal immigration leads to Hispanic votes just does not hold up.

Romney has been campaigning fairly aggressively against illegal immigration. He has repeatedly said he favors deportation of all undocumented immigrants in the country, mandatory use of e-verify by all employers, and opposes the so-called Dream Act. Newt Gingrich accused him of being "anti-immigrant," which Romney vehemently denied. Yet Romney won the Hispanic vote in the Florida Republican primary 54%-29% (Fox News exit poll). Hispanics also constituted a significant 14% of the voters in the primary. This tells us two important things: Hispanic voters are slightly more pro-Romney than the electorate, and they are not repelled by the idea of cracking down on illegal immigrants.

And their 14% share of the Republican primary electorate is almost equal to their share of the state's population.

There is a significant share of the Hispanic population in Florida (many are Cubans who have always voted Republican) that is conservative and Republican. It's simply wrong to say those people are offended by talk of cracking down on illegal immigration. Could it be that they are opposed to illegal immigration in principle, and this is is something that is appealing about the Republican brand?

If Gingrich had won the Hispanic vote, and it was therefore out of step with the rest of the state's electorate, there would be reason to question whether opposition to illegal immigration were an impediment to winning over Hispanic voters. But that was not what happened. And it is now fair to ask why Republicans should not make illegal immigration a key issue. It would seem every segment of the Republican electorate is on board.

 

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12:25 PM on 02/03/2012
Good analysis. I am a Democrat, but do not agree with their stance on illegal immigration. I support the mandatory use of E-verify, attrition through enforcement (self deportation), elimination of birthright citizenship, and oppose the Dream act and other forms of amnesty.

The more Democratic politicians and their pundits talk about how Romney's stance on illegal immigration will drive away Latino voters, the more likely it is that I will vote for Romney, despite disagreeing with him on many other issues.

I would say that the constant pandering to the "all important" Latino vote is a turn-off to many other voters.
08:25 PM on 02/06/2012
We are not getting rid of the 14th Amendment, so you can forget that. Immigration is just a pretext conservatives use to argue for gutting the 14th Amendment and other laws that protect Civil Rights.
02:12 AM on 02/03/2012
"It would seem every segment of the Republican electorate is on board."

It would also seem that the blue collar segment of the Democratic Party is on board with Romney.
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Emma2011
10:49 AM on 02/02/2012
Foster echos Romney's own illusion that a win among Hispanics would translate to support from Latinos in other states. Cubans don't have to worry about amnesty and the Puerto Ricans are citizens.
Foster fails to understand that there are millions of Latino voters who have relatives, friends or valued employees who are undocumented and Romney's promise to make their lives so miserable that they self-deport makes him persona non grata among these voters.
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Mark Lindley
05:43 PM on 02/02/2012
So what makes these Latino voters think that their relative and friends should be above our laws? Make their lives so miserable? They have no right to be here or to be working here. If cutting off the job magnet makes them miserable then so be it. Americans need those jobs or don't they count?
lightnessandjoy
Is micro-bio a new disease?
10:58 PM on 02/01/2012
Well, you're wrong, but I sure hope Republican candidates are listening to you. As to your analysis, Romney won the Republican Hispanic vote. Doesn't mean much.
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Yankeebrown
10:39 PM on 02/01/2012
that's because the vote was cast in florida where the cubanitos don't have to worry about being illegal since the law makes an exemption for them. If Rommey had primaries in in california or nevada or texas, the story would be quite different.
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Winkandanod
Corporations are NOT people my friends
07:55 PM on 02/01/2012
Regressives just don't get it.

It's not tough talk or even tough policies that Hispanics find offensive. Latino-Americans a good law-abiding people just like everone else. Obama has exceeded the Bush administrations raw deportation numbers.

It's the racist demagoguery and dehumanizing "illegals" references that are offensive to Latinos. It's passing laws that presume a person with brown skin is brekaing the law that push them away from regressives.
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07:28 PM on 02/01/2012
The title should be "Republicans and the.....what were we talking about again?"
06:35 PM on 02/01/2012
The thought of someone voting as a "hispanic", instead of an individual with his or her own views is what's dividing our nation.
09:18 AM on 02/02/2012
Dear John Birch Meets Chicken Little: Ethnic groups have voted for their own interest from the beginning of our country's history. The narcissist fallacy in your mythology is that your white northerm european descended peers have historically acted with only patriotic altruism in political terms. That is bunk, everyone has acted in their own economic interest and in terms of obtaining, exerting and keeping political power. When the wave of southern and eastern european immigrants arrived here, your like lamented how unprepared they were for democracy and the fake science of Eugenics was enlisted to justify the mythology. Those immigrant groups voted for their own interest, just like Latinos are doing now. And Latinos have served this country and died for it in very high proportion to their numbers, so much for your altruism myth.
11:17 AM on 02/02/2012
You are calling me a "John Birch Meets Chicken Little", while you cannot pull out of your collectivist hate long enough to show that you aren't a "racist" yourself, how sad. My like? I am an individual sir/madam, who has not mentioned where my ancestry hails from. As although it is helpful to know where one's ancestors derive from, it is much more important to treat each individual within my community as a fellow human being, and reminding that person that he or she has a right to be him/herself without being labeled as a collective. I do not see a "latino" (which as most attempts to label a collective of people is incorrect), an "African American", or any other hyphenated collective label. I see a fellow human being in front of me, who as an individual, was born with the right to be an individual and not part of a percieved collective which can be herded to whichever corral suits the highest bidder. It is quite obvious that your rhetoric is that of the totalitarianist ideology which is touted in a "Chicano Studies" course (which I have studied and know of it's true intentions). Yo no soy una obeja, yo soy un individuo.
06:30 PM on 02/01/2012
This world would be a whole lot better if liberals stopped doing things "in our best interest". You don't know what my interest are anymore than you know anyone else's that you have never met.
By all means re-elect Obama, he'll never lie to you. Just ask the detainee's at Gitmo, he closed that on day one.
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SF TKF
Cthulhu thinks you'd make a nice sandwich.
05:50 PM on 02/01/2012
You can’t compare the largely Cuban & Porto Rican population in Florida with the Hispanic populations in the South West. The former are either citizens or can stay here legally once they set foot on our soil. This is a VERY different dynamic from what all other Hispanic groups face.
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Mark Lindley
05:55 PM on 02/02/2012
I am all for ending the "wet foot, dry foot" policy that the Cubans get enjoy. However, they are refugees from a communistic regime. Mexicans are from a Democratic country and are not refugees. Are you aware that we have more legal and illegal immigrants from Mexico and other Latino countries than anywhere else? If you are trying to pull the descrimination card, you have failed miserably.
08:30 PM on 02/06/2012
Mexico is a quasi-dictatorship in the middle of a drug war. In addition, NAFTA has pushed milions of Mexicans off of their land. You can't discuss illegal immigration unless you discuss the impact of NAFTA.

As for Cuba, the Cold War is over and Fidel is no different from any other Latin American dictator. Wet foot, dry foot should end.
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chaz
04:46 PM on 02/01/2012
No worries the liberally bias media conglomerates are starting a new Spanish channel called Fox Spanish channel. It's going to be exactly like Fox "news" only in Spanish. Now Spanish speaking Americans can start voting against their best interest too.

Keep electing Republicans,conservatives and tbaggers and keep getting lied too.
06:32 PM on 02/01/2012
They already have a Latino news division. I don't know if it's a TV channel in addition to a website/division. I imagine it's both.

http://latino.foxnews.com/index.html
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Mark Lindley
05:56 PM on 02/02/2012
Really? And just what have the Republicans, conservative and teapartiers (not baggers) lied to you about?