Gov. Scott Walker has survived the recall attempt in Wisconsin, although it appears the Democrats may have won a symbolic victory in the state's Senate. That is not cheering news for the Obama campaign, and neither are the depressing economic numbers, the chaos in Europe, or the amazingly tone-deaf Obama campaign ad that came out last week. I mean, you know you have screwed up pretty badly when you produce a campaign ad that is so bad that the opposition runs the thing in its entirety as an ad for their candidate.
But still, it is awfully difficult to see how Obama loses this thing.
Here are my assumptions (inspired by John Hart):
If a state went for both Kerry and Obama, it's a lock for Obama.
If a state went for both Bush and McCain, it's a lock for Romney
That leaves nine states that Obama won that Kerry did not. They account for 112 electoral college votes:
Colorado (9)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
Obama won 365 - 173, a margin of 192. It is generally assumed that he has lost six electoral votes to redistricting (although this gets complicated, particularly if we shift a 2008 Obama state to a 2012 Romney state and that state has gained seats). But using that six-vote-loss figure, that makes it 359-179. Take away the 112 votes at stake in these swing states and we are starting out at 247-179.
I will assume that Romney wins North Carolina, Indiana, and Iowa (33 votes): 247-212.
That leaves 79 votes in play in six states: Florida (27), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9). Of these 79 electoral votes Obama needs 23 to win; Romney needs 58.
Time to start playing with scenarios.
If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia then Romney loses even if he wins everything else -- including Florida -- by 280-258. So Romney needs Florida plus one of Ohio/Virginia.
If Obama wins Florida, then Romney can't win, period -- there are only 52 votes left in play after Florida is taken out of the equation. Even if Romney wins everything else on the board, Obama wins with 274-266.
And even if Romney wins Florida and, say, Virginia, he still needs 18 more votes -- say, Colorado plus New Mexico and Nevada -- to pull it off. If Obama wins only Ohio and New Mexico he still wins 272-268.
All the races above are within five points at the moment, and heaven knows the Obama campaign has not looked particularly ept this week. And yes, the economic news has been bad and Europe shows alarming signs of hurtling off the edge. But that does nothing to alter the fact that this is very much Obama's race to lose.
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Obama 2012!
as they like to say "when America gets to know him"
well in this case it'll never happen as the man has no convictions.
There is no there, there.
F/F
This is not a good assumption at all.
By governing to the left contrary to how they campaigned, Dems destroyed the "moderate Democrat" brand and massively lost the white working class vote (and more than a few Hispanic working class) in every election since winter 2009, with the the WI recall spanking just the latest example.
This WWC realignment puts all the Midwest apart from IL, PA, NH and ME in play.
Just ask Wall Street.
Where do you guys get this stuff?
Spare me.
We have two conventions to get through, plus plenty of time for Romney to have a Macaca moment.
Heck, we could get attacked again, or be in a crisis with China or Russia, or for that matter, Romney could cure cancer (but he'd charge millions for the right to have treatment, so that'd probably dog him in the polls).
Congress is the key. Direct your energy and work there, we need to hold the Senate, take back the House, and abolish the filibuster.
We cannot afford to go back to the Bush policies that Romney is running on............you know.........more tax cuts and deregulation. we have been there, done that...........no more giving Wall Street free reign to crash the country for a second time. And Lord knows, rich people do NOT need another tax cut that Romney is proposing.
Hopefully we are done with Republicans for the next 50 years in this country !
In states like Indiana, that is a really tall order. When the economy nearly collapsed during 2008, and the mortgage crisis erupted, Hoosiers were fuming. Not only was unemployment spiraling because of the steady erosion of manufacturing jobs in Indiana (Mitch Daniels is just as ineffectual in attracting major businesses--especially manufacturing--to Indiana as Romney was in Massachusetts) but the local governments were struggling to balance their budgets. To do so, they doubled and in some cases tripled the property taxes, which was hugely resented by the struggling middle class. Property taxes on a nice house in a nice neighborhood went from maybe $3000 per year (applied to the year before which creates an unanticipated and certainly unwelcome payment to avoid a tax lien) to $6000 or even $10,000. Housing prices plummeted, as they did in much of the country; foreclosure became an epidemic.
In 2012, the economy still sucks in Indiana. Indiana businesses' job ads announce they offer a "competitive wage", which is about $1.00 over the minimum wage. New jobs creation is nearly nil. Daniels' administration trumpets the transfer of businesses with 25 jobs to Indiana (ignoring the reality that Indiana's gain is another state's loss). But, most voters have internalized the reality that their economic futures are not going to get much or even, any better. The Bush administration's direct involvement in the the decisions and deregulation that led to the collapse of hundreds of banks, is no longer at the top of voters' consciousness. And, it is the tendency of voters to punish whoever is at the top of the ticket, when they get their quadrennial opportunity to express their dissatisfaction at the voting booth.
He can take on Al Quaeda but not the Repubs???
See Robert Sheer's comment today on Truthdig for what is missing and what is desperately needed.
Cenk on Young Turks highlighted 2 ads, one by the Kochs-Rove against the recall, very expertly put together to appeal to working-class "average folks", and one put out on the last day (!) by the DNC, very weak-kneed in my opinion, and not at all addressing the issues raised by Sheer.
Dems need to get focus groups and good ad writers like Rove has. What is their problem? They need focus groups and make sure these ads convey quickly what needs to be said, an have your surrogates stick on message, any off questions, give a vague answer that can't be controversial.
Whi isn't Obam taking on congress with a HUGE jobs bill, taking them to task, what's his problem. I hope he does it now, no point in raising all that money if he's just going to sit on his hands, not take on congress get them fired and call them out and win with a landslide.
He's definitely getting WI, VA, OH probably Floida but why not do it with gusto and panache. the European economy is looking like it will survive based on signs from germany they'll help, things looking better for Spain an Greece too.
Housing construction seems to be picking up an the service numbers have shown growth, Bernanke may be giving us some stimulus so if Obama attacks congress with his jobs bill, we have it in the bag.
Let's hope Obama listens an does us oroud so we can stop worrying. Please Obama take up the fight, bring back that passion and mojo you do so well.
He needs to get professionals to do some positive ads, explaining the best parts of Obamacare, OBL and Al qaeda captured, Iraq done, Afghan almost done, infrastructue job plan waiting for congress approval jobs bill & he's done. Just run those commercials and we're set.
O may be inept but at least they can spell but they need to run better ads.
Of course, Obama and Romney need to focus on certain states. It is too soon to tell where the independents are going to go in the swing states. Romney has barely begun his campaign. Obama has not yet found his best talking points. The voters want to see Romney and Obama side by side in a debate.
I expect there will be enough money available for the candidates to get out they message they think works. Obama has a clear record to defend and leverage. There is still time for some changes in the economy before election day, or some international event that might affect voters' feelings.
http://wsau.com/news/articles/2012/apr/05/11-uw-madison-doctors-punished-for-writing-fake-sick-notes/
Was it worth it?