For Many GOP Members Of Congress John McCain's Campaign Is Turning Into A Career-Ending Tragedy

Ever since McCain clinched the GOP presidential nomination and marched right into Denny Hastert's congressional district to campaign vigorously with Jim Oberweis for the seat Hastert was giving up, a shudder went up the spine of Republican incumbents. An unknown Democratic challenger, Bill Foster, straight from a bitterly fought primary that he only won by a few votes, should have been an easy target for McCain and Oberweis. The district is overwhelmingly Republican (R+5) and exactly the kind of district Republicans have to win if they are going to stay nationally relevant and not just fade away into the party of the old slave holding states and the Mormons. But instead of McCain's first victory, early March saw the beginning of a nightmare vision for the GOP about what kind of a disaster McCain's coattails were going to be for them. And it just got worse from there.

McCain's coattails were also toxic in Baton Rouge, in another very red district's special election, and then in a Mississippi district where Democrats normally don't even bother to run (R+10). It seems like every single day the rearview mirror, Inside the Beltway prognosticators are-- as usual-- trying to catch up with reality in the "real America" (everything to the west, north and south of the Beltway) by changing their ratings, which generally started out as 2 or 3 Democratic gains in the Senate and 8 or 9 net wins for the Dems in the House. Cook and Schnook and Rothengeek and the rest of them seem to be willing to declare a seat leaning to the Democrats when the Republican gives a concession speech. They're a joke and I expect that on Wednesday they will make fairly accurate predictions for a Democratic landslide in both houses.

Today's Washington Post deals with the delicate subject-- in a one industry company town-- of John McCain's coattails, by claiming that his struggle in traditionally Republican states is "complicating the already tenuous reelection prospects of some congressional Republicans." Moderate suburban districts are breaking for Obama and vacated Republican seats plus embattled GOP incumbents are looking mighty blue 6 days before the election.

The apparent McCain drag on congressional races comes as voters increasingly cast blame on Bush and Republicans for the crumbling economy and at a time when the GOP's national party committees have little financial resources to defend an increasing number of House and Senate seats that are in jeopardy.

"McCain is just running so poorly now. He's collapsed in some districts. It's brutal out there for Republicans," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the independent Rothenberg Political Report.

The environment has created the potential for gains by the Democrats that could leave them in control of the Capitol for years.

Democrats hold a 51 to 49 edge in the Senate when the two independents who caucus with them are factored in, and a 236 to 199 House majority. Rothenberg predicted that Democrats will pick up 27 to 33 House seats, and make gains of six to nine seats in the Senate. The Cook Political Report, another independent political forecaster, suggests that Democrats will net 23 to 28 House seats, and pick up seven to nine Republican-held Senate seats.

That would have been an astute observation in late August. If Cook were on the ball he would have said "Democrats will net 30 to 40 House seats."

Does anyone pay attention to these blinkered forecasters? The DCCC and NRCC consider them the holy grail, media frames the coverage of races through the prism they offer, and their impact on big donors is immense. Otherwise, they're inconsequential.

Many political observers are talking about the career-ending balloting coming up for John Sununu (R-NH), Steve Pearce (R-NM), Robin Hayes (R-NC) and Ric Keller (R-FL) but I want to talk about two races that none of the pollsters or pundits ever mention and that have been largely flying under the radar. This morning the most influential newspaper in Iowa, the Des Moines Register shocked the political establishment by rejecting 7-term incumbent rubber stamp Tom Latham and endorsed a grassroots Democrat for his seat, Becky Greenwald. Cook and Schnook must be scratching their head and scurrying around for a map that shows where Iowa's 4th CD is.

Iowa's 4th District has a chance to make history. This state has never sent a woman to Congress, but should do so this election.

Becky Greenwald, a Democrat from Perry, has not made that point the main emphasis of her campaign. She calls herself a candidate who "happens to be female." But she also happens to be a woman with potential to be a leader in Washington.

[The Register also endorsed progressive Democrat Rob Hubler in the 5th district and urged Iowa voters to retire hysterical extremist goon Steve King.]

The other race I want to bring up, though, is even further under the radar than either of the Iowa races. Southwest Pennsylvania's 18th CD was gerrymandered to find every potential Republican voter south of Pittsburgh and put them into a safe district for Tim Murphy. But the district (R+2) isn't safe enough for someone with as terrible a rubber stamp record as Murphy has amassed since first taking office in 2002. Just look at this Iraq voting record; it could have been accrued by Dick Cheney! But I bet no one outside the district-- especially no one Inside the Beltway-- knows that there might be an upset brewing inside.

Steve O'Donnell is a progressive Democrat with a shot-- albeit a longshot-- to be Tuesday night's jaw dropper. Murphy has tried to stay under the radar himself and he's tried, despite his record, to sound like a moderate and keep his distance, at least publicly, from Bush and McCain. But his approval rating is only 34%, something that would have him on the critical list if the DCCC was paying attention. Registration has changed so drastically in Pennsylvania that there are now 60,000 more registered Democrats in PA-18 than registered Republicans! And it's an economically hard-hit part of the country with very strong anti-Republican sentiment.

Labor is behind O'Donnell in a big way and his pro-choice, single payer healthcare, out-of-Iraq positions are in sync with what voters actually want. Meanwhile the FBI is investigating Murphy as another dirty Republican Culture of Corruption crook:

Murphy was named one of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress by CREW and he's continued taking immense sums of money from the special interests he serves in Congress, like Big Oil, Halliburton, Wal-Mart and many of the worst players in the mortgage crisis and Wall Street meltdown.

If O'Donnell comes close, the DCCC will be weeping to activists next year for screwing up-- like they're doing this year for screwing up Larry Kissell's race in 2006. But he can win, especially if McCain and Palin keep campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Follow Howie Klein on Twitter: www.twitter.com/downwithtyranny

Comments

[Chavez08]

The world is changing. Reaganomics-style Neoliberalism is being rejected WORLD WIDE and this Extreme Capitalism/global slavery is the only true ideology of the party though they can't purvey their TRUE intentions because they will eliminate even their most staunch Stockholm Syndrome-ridden supporters. ("My friends, Obama wants to end Corporate Slavery, and I need you slaves to stand up for your slavery and vote for ME!")

Republicans true message is one of wealth consolidation to 1% of the population, endless war and slavery. That will sell about as well as "I Can't Believe it's Not Dog-Sh*t!"

The public dialogue has changed radically and, regardless of Tuesdays' outcome, this is the beginning of the end of Americas' dance with Fascism.

[Whinger]

Soul searching time for GOP members, now, I've sold my soul so many times I wonder who has it.

[Chavez08]

If it was attached to the mortgage notes, good luck with THAT one!

[tedbear]

I only hope this is going to be a career ender for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

VOTE OHIO WE CAN DO IT FOR OBAMA!!! HE WILL DO IT FOR US!

[DrSteveA]

Fl-15 is anoter sadly ignored race, with Dr. Stephen Blythe a progressive Democrat running:

1. Open Seat (was held by retiring Republican Dave Weldon).
2. PVI is only +4R.
3. Registration trending Democrat.
4. Obnoxious winger opponent.
5. Good guy on our side running.
6. Tidal wave change year nationally & in Florida.
7. Yet, pretty much being ignored by both Netroots and DCCC.
8. Netroots have fallen in love with many other races that have far steeper Republican PVI's to climb, and with Republican incumbents, and so inherently harder to win then this Open Seat.
9. I know he has been dismissed by standard argument that he could not raise much money on his own, therefore not viable. This seems to me to be the stupidest old-school (pre-Dean)argument. See 1-6 above for why it is just dumb to be ignoring FL-15.
10. My counter-argument is that is a circular self-fullfilling prophecy, and leads to ignoring good candidates who not either rich or already connected to rich people or corporations; not a good way to get good indepdendent people.

His campaign page: http://www.blythe2008.com
His ActBlue page: http://www.actblue.com/contribute/entity/18252
.

[PittsburghDem1982]

Steve O'Donnell has no chance in hell. Many people have no clue who he is. I am a Democrat and even if I could vote for him I would not. The DCCC has not given him any money and he is one of the only Democratic Congressional Candidates that they have not given any money and they know he will not win. He has wasted money and time when there could have been a candidate that could have won running instead of him.

[Jonny38103]

The fact that the DCCC, in its short-sightedness, hasn't given any funds to a candidate doesn't mean much. The DCCC pours hundreds of thousands to candidates that are safe and would probably win anyhow and denies other candidates even a few thousand, which could make a huge difference in those districts. When an incumbent isn't forced to spend more of their money in their district, he can then spread it around into other districts. And Pittsburgh, you are wrong - the DCCC limits their monies to a minority of the Democratic candidates. Vote for Dr. Blythe, a great candidate.

Another great candidate with a similar fate in Florida is Doug Tudor in FL-12. Running against archconservative Adam Putnam, Tudor is a fantastic alternative with his stellar miltary career and degrees in Government and Law. Check him out at www.teamtudor.org.

[The-Real-Tim-Murphy]

PittsburghDem, it is actually Tim Murphy who does not have a chance. What Steve O'Donnell lacks in campaign funds he makes up with an amazing field staff and volunteers who are bringing the fight right to Murphy's door. This in addition to all of the laws and ethics rules Murphy has broken its going to be Steve O'Donnell's day on Tuesday.
If you would like to read more about Tim please visit http://www.therealtimmurphy.com
P.S. The DCCC has its head stuck you know where and needs to promote true progressives like Steve.

[PuddyKatz]

Not tragic. Politicians should be kicked out every now and then. Let the GOP spend some time in the wilderness, maybe it will come back reformed and prepared to govern responsibly if it is given the chance in the future.
There's no tragedy in a politician losing an office, especially some one as low down on the poll as a Congressman.

[bipolar2]

As SoGo goes, so goes the nation --

When an insufficient number of good people could be found in Sodom and Gomorra, the old God wipes out both cities without a second thought. The jewish myth applies well enough to the morally maladroit GOP, none of whose members' job losses will amount to a tragedy.

Just like the failed citizenry of SoGo, only some lucky GOPs will escape a fate due them all.

If this is unclear, drop a line to Palin; she knows all about Dominionist mythology.

bipolar2

[Yermammy]

He's blowing down the entire house of cards that is the GOP.
Sweet Justice.
NOW, time to impeach Bush & Cheney before they issues blanket pardons!
Are you listening Nancy?

[Indie2008]

Wonder if Ted Stevens will be up for one of those pardons? Do ya think?- But I wouldn't want Congress to even waste valuable time with impeachment. It would just give them martyrdom. They deserve to skulk away from Washington with no fanfare.

[WorkingClass]

Nope. They belong in prison.

[kjstjohn]

I say, no impeachments. We need to pull together as a country to restore the health of the middle class. As much as I would enjoy impeachments, they would be divisive.

[TheVicar]

Quite frankly, I'm not sure that's a valid argument. Do we really want to unite with the massively corrupt and morally repugnant group which is the current Republican party? Half the people in the Bush administration were involved in Watergate, and only escaped prosecution because of people who felt that there had been too many trials and we needed to unite and get back to business. I'd say: prosecute 'em all, and then work with whoever arises to lead the party after that.

[MsLiz]

Do you know how impeachments work? An impeachment is an accusation. Then there is a trial. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached, but both won their trials. They remained in office.

Bush could be impeached and still grant the pardons. He has to be removed from office to destroy his pardon power. He will probably issue more pardons between November 5 and January 20 than he has issued to date.

[NotMcCain]

Not a tragedy.

A disgrace.

[SallyStraight]

Back in 2,000 I liked McCain and felt sorry that he was beaten up so badly with attack tactics. Now, in 2008, I feel like it was his training ground. This campaign has been so nasty that it curls my toes. I don't know what happened to that likeable guy, because in his place is a grumpy old guy making faces and off the wall remarks.

At what point does one risk their most precious possession, their integrity and their soul, to be manipulated in the way he has? Of was it his real nature lurking beneath the surface the whole time? I'm sure that people around the world are laughing at this spectacle. OBAMA ON NOVEMBER 4. We need class and restraint back in the White House. In other words, let's get rid of all of this mud slinging and back biting and get our country straightened out. I can't wait until we have world respect again! Visit http://myspace.com/sallystraight for my views on the shennanigans that have been going on.

'Nuff said. Sally Straight ---MyComments2

[victoriajubilee]

PLEASE COME OUT IN GREAT NUMBERS ON NOVEMBER 4TH. LETS MAKE HISTORY,THE UNIVERSE IS WATCHING. LETS ALL GO TO THE POLLS AND ELECT SENATOR OBAMA,PRESIDENT OF THIS GREAT COUNTRY. THANK YOU.

[mairs]

I already voted!

[Senzasord]

If the McCain campaign spells the end of a significan number of Republican careers, this is anything but a tragedy. These loyal followers of the bankrupt Republican conservative philosophy are complicit in the destruction of America. Ending their sordid careers is scant punishment compared to what they truly deserve. No Republican can be allowed to be left standing. No Republican can be allowed to hold any office of any type at any level. Good Riddance to them all.

[Oregon Ivy]

Tom Delay is now on Hardball calling Obama a "Marxist."

Uh... Isn't Delay a convicted felon?

Oh, boy, that's another $25 donation to Obama for me. Everytime they call him something new, I donate. No wonder he's got so much campaign funds.

[archer77]

The video of Murphy is unbelievable. The guy is so arrogant. Steve O'Donnell seems to be running a great race despite Murphy's big financial advantage (over $850K in PAC money alone). Howie is right -- there is a big wave coming, and some of these lesser-known candidates are going to ride it all the way to Congress.

[mlaiuppa]

So, what if McCain won? What can a President do when neither Party will pay any attention to him? When he has absolutely no influence (except maybe a negative one)? He's a lame duck from day one.

[LetMeUnderstandThis]

Az will not reelect him to be Senator, his days are numbered.

Obama/Biden 08