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Mixology Season 1, Episode 1: The Hook Up Matrix

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Sometimes a night out can feel like it lasts forever, for better or for worse. In the case of Mixology, ABC's mid-season Hail Mary pass at the half-hour comedy genre, a single night out lasts (network fingers crossed) for 13 episodes. Created by the guys responsible for The Hangover, each episode of Mixology is a snapshot into the lives of 10 people on a single night of drinking, flirting, preening and generally doing whatever is necessary to find that right person... for the night or otherwise.

In the inaugural episode, we meet all the players as they collectively wet their whistles at The Mix (apparently NYC's most spacious and noise-level appropriate bar) but we only get the first two backstories -- Tom, the heart-broken sensitivo who was just dumped by his fiancé of eight years because he "looks like a beaver;" and Maya, the tough-as-nails sports lawyer who chews men up and spits them out for being sniveling little bitches (if Keyshawn Johnson can't hack it, does Tom stand a chance?). Is it a coincidence that these are the first two to cross paths at the bar? Will Tom's broken-hearted puppy dog act melt Maya's ball-busting exterior?

These questions and more don't get answered, but hey, it's only the first episode. While it's far too early to know who ends up with whom and who inevitably goes home alone, it's always fun to speculate, isn't it? So that's exactly what we'll do. With 1 being "A snowball's chance in hell" and 10 being "They're probably in a bathroom stall right now," we'll take a weekly look at our singles' odds of getting lucky.

Here we go:

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Tom: Ah, the wide-eyed cherub of the group, white-knuckling the notion of True Love in this modern age of online dating and liberated women with Don Draper fetishes -- as he stands now the poor guy doesn't stand a chance. Not that he's totally hopeless, but the cards are stacked against him. The guy has been out of the dating scene for the better part of a decade, as we're told repeatedly, so you can't expect someone so doped up on true romance to jump back up on the one-night-stand wagon right away. While the full-frontal assault at the bar by Maya seemed to actually put a little wind in his sails, we're not getting ahead of ourselves. Unlike Tom. While he did walk away with Maya's number, that goofy, I'm-going-to-have-your-kids-later grin at the end of the episode leads us think he's not ready for any casual flings.

Odds of hooking up tonight: 3

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Maya: She's the badass tomboy who normally leaves a trail of man-tears in her wake after ditching guys for being "too soft" (sorry, Carl). Craving a guy who isn't afraid of taking what he wants, she's the type of girl who's always on the prowl, but inevitably disappointed by what she finds (Keyshawn, we were rooting for you, bro). But, gasp, is that a spark of kindness we see after her interaction with Tom? Will his puppy dog mentality melt down her icy walls? We smell a plot twist later on, but for now she'll probably just grab the bartender who can't remember anyone's name.

Odds of hooking up tonight: 9

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Bruce & Cal: At this early juncture, it's impossible to rate these two yahoos on their own merits, seeing as how they seemingly cancel out each other's worst qualities. Bruce, the wise-cracking, joke-wielding redhead, is too disgusting to get a girl in most realities (and will probably spawn a collective Liz Lemon-eye roll from girls proudly wearing ballet flats everywhere); Cal, while a smooth-talker and nice to look at, leans a little too far on the dull side so far. But together, they are the Jimmy Fallon/Justin Timberlake of this mythical bar in the Meat Packing District. Will this lead to any successful amount of "smashing" by the end of the night? Or just a lot of "barguments" and head cocking? Our bets are on the later, but let's see how this plays out.

Odds of Hooking up tonight: 4

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Kacey & Dominic:

Kacey: Kacey, the bubbly sorority girl who thinks turning 30 is the worst, seeks out love and happy vibes from behind a cocktail tray (side bar: Vanessa Lengies was our favorite character in Stick It -- look it up). She swears her fling with Dominic is over, because he's too negative and "like, 34 years old." But in the closing montage we see she's already gone back on that vow and is actively de-shirting the bartender who can't remember her name. Maybe in her world a healthy amount of semi-naked groping doesn't quite count?

Dominic: Handsome, somewhat brooding, the right amount of designer stubble. The classic sexy bartender, until we inevitably get his back story and it turns out he's some kind of genius who's doing research for a doctoral thesis about the actual relationship between the height of a heel and the way a girl feels. Dominic's chances of going home with someone tonight are, as they probably are every night, pretty good. Chances that someone will be Kacey? Even higher.

Odds of hooking up tonight: 10
Odds of hooking up with each other: 11 (We see it happen, but we don't know to what degree of follow-through.)

On the betting sheet next week: Jessica, Ron, and Liv.

Mixology airs Wednesday nights at 9:30 pm EST/PST on ABC