For many, online video has become a part of our daily lives. It's become so pervasive that it's the talk around the water cooler and every day a new meme is captured by a camera and uploaded and shared with millions and millions of people around the world. Online video has become a part of the cultural zeitgeist, a reference point propelled by politicians, aspiring artists, protesting citizens and individuals who want their voices heard. In short, online video has overcome country boundaries and language barriers; it has intertwined disparate ideas and fundamentally connected and changed the world.
With five years gone since we first started YouTube, here are five themes for the next five years that will fundamentally change video as we know it:
- Online video will die. Long live video - Five years ago, online video was known for being poor quality, and slow to playback. Today, there are two types of video: online and offline. Internet usage grew nearly 400% in the first decade of the 21st century and it's only increasing. Innovation around personal WiFi devices are among the technologies propelling projections of over 1 billion WiFi devices by 2012. Better, more robust infrastructure and improved computer processing power combined with support for 1080p full-HD and even 3D have pulled online video quality and innovation on parallel with offline video. And that innovation is just accelerating to the point where there the distinction between online and offline video will no longer exist. All there will be is video.
- There will be only one channel - In 1988, there were 26 channels available in the US. In 1998 there were 52. In 2008 there were 110. The number of channels is exploding and sure to reach well into the thousands. But the true tectonic shift is not the number of channels; it's who's programming them. Five years from now there will be one channel that really matters and that is the "Channel of You." The "Channel of You" will be created from hundreds of thousands, if not millions of video sources, representing a wide spectrum of content creators and will reflect who you are and what you're interested in. There will be videos created by friends and family that showcase your cousin's wedding, or your son's graduation. There will be niche videos that speak to your unique interests like scuba diving, video game tips, or car repair. And there will be mass media channels that deliver content created by aspiring independent creators or mainstream studios, sports leagues and record labels.
- Put down the remote. Content will find you - The remote feels easy, but at the end of the day, it's still inefficient. You shouldn't have to search for something to watch. What you want to watch should be delivered directly to you without you having to plug a number in. As search and discovery of video becomes more sophisticated, video will reflect your interests and serve you what like to watch, when you want to watch it. Searching and browsing will be joined by a mix of super-smart algorithmically-driven technology and social signals that allow your friends to share what they are watching.
- Browsers - The sophisticated and robust Web browser of today will live way beyond the PC tomorrow. It will live in more phones and migrate into more living rooms. We will move from a device-specific model to a user-centric one, where your content is available anywhere you can log-in. And content creators and distributors will benefit from the browser's sophisticated ad serving technologies and audience data together with its low delivery costs.
- The creator's rewards will grow - Online video monetization is in its infancy. But as more ad formats and sophisticated transactional models roll out, the content creator will see the rewards for their work grow and these rewards will be delivered to these content creators and distributors unfiltered. An advertiser will be able to micro- or mass target their campaigns, meaning TV ad budgets will shift quickly towards providers who can supply breadth, depth and performance analytics. And contrary to popular belief, consumers will be willing to pay for content so long as it doesn't come with consumption constraints (watch anywhere) and they are able to feel an emotional bond with the content creator. Tools like Twitter and YouTube will help artists create these direct relationships with fans, in some cases shifting the middleman out of the picture.
The world of video is changing. Users are consuming it on their computers, social platforms and microblogs. Online video's days as a standalone concept are numbered. It's an endangered species. Why? Because in the future ALL video will be online. Video will be faster, more powerful and more global than ever before. And you can be sure, it will connect and change the world. So sit back, grab your 3D glasses and enjoy what's on next.
ignores an essential fact...................there are peaks and valleys in the flow history............
and we are going into a valley...................of consolidation of what is what now....but
to MAGNIFY VIDEO as you do is silly. there is already enuf content out there........for just about anything...............look at the number of videos there are on you tube alone for canary chirping.
its going to be like the late l950s the next few years............a few big thrills like the
ultra 59 chevy with wings, or disneyland, or even a new state.....but VIDEO IS DEFINITELY
AT A PEAK and going to LEVEL OUT....................
I've heard stats that online video ad dollars will mostly go to the big studios or networks but I'm not so sure of that. The same way that developers can challenge the big tech companies from their garages will soon be (and already is to some degree) happening in the video production world as well.
I also agree that the convergence of video across all screens is at our fingertips. We're just waiting for the transmission technology to catch up. The keys to this will be net neutrality, better/faster internet access and a 4G network capable of handling large amounts of rich media to be delivered seamlessly to handheld devices.
YouTube has come a long way in the last 5 years - I'm excited to see what you'll do next!
Tie to that the growing demands on everyone's time to work to maintain our monetary status, and one can see that there is a time coming when two people inhabit this country: those with enhanced data capabilities and those that remain ignorant of the world around them!
And even if we did, the arguments present in these comments are valid: basically, corporations want to get us hooked upon online content so they can charge us for it --- and you can be sure the price will go up and up and up and...
Fortunately there's an old-fashioned technology that is widely available and can be had for free: the book, available at the library near you.
Now we have cable broadband on a computer hooked to our TV. But we will also dump that if it starts to cost more. The fact that what we watch (what is available, anyway) is now totally on our schedule when we want it has opened up a new sense of freedom to get away from the tube and out in the yard more.
For a really cool prediction website, look at: Paleofuture.com It has articles going back to the late 1800s of people making predictions of technology, mainly, of how we would live now (and in the future).
Looking at those references, it appears that some of this author's predictions are based on a given that the advancement of the infrastructure needed for many of predictions will be emplaced. That usually never happens.
The browser point, where "we will move from a device-specific model to a user-centric one, where your content is available anywhere you can log-in" does seem to fit into the pattern of which predictions come true. From the site, people have tended to think that a specific application requires a device special for that need. Usually, though, things have been engineered to have multiple uses.
Resistance is futile . . (where did they find this guy?)
And unfortunately, that's basically never how technological trends progress...
We Believe!
"Content providers" jealously guard their video. It's encrypted, even on the disk of a DVR.
Free online music has all but disappeared on the Internet. Video is tolerated, but it's next.
No question, all prerecorded video will be seen "on demand", over the Internet.
That is like "one channel", but I doubt that channel will be free.
But "live" video, particularly sports, is "multicast" over the Internet, over separate channels (sort of).
We will pay separate subscriptions for each channel, like for cable channels or pay-per-view
ESPN is paid billions, and that won't stop. There is no chance that will be free, ever.
No difference on the Internet; probably more expensive.
I don't agree that content will find me - not free, quality content, which YouTube is not.
Our US system is based on maximizing profits, which maximizes cost to the consumer.
We pay more for cell phones and Internet than in other countries, with inferior service.
That's my five year prediction: regardless of the future of video, we in the US will pay the most for it.
Not only will it cost more but the free broadcast options will be gone soon too.