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Ian Fletcher

Ian Fletcher

Posted: January 24, 2011 01:45 PM

Here's a fascinating article by an intelligent economist, Jim Tankersly, apparently a perfectly nice fellow, puzzling over the "big mystery" of why the U.S. economy has lost so many jobs and isn't creating any more to replace them. It is rife with phrases like:

"Even now, no one really knows why."

"a critical mystery bedeviling a nation struggling to crawl out of near-double-digit unemployment"

"If we can't figure out why, we may be doomed to a future that feels like a long jobless recovery, no matter how fast our economy grows."

"It's the trillion-dollar question,"

"That's not really what's supposed to happen."

And yet this article gives only the most cursory nod to what is increasingly obvious: free trade killed the Great American Job Machine.

 
 
 
 
 
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09:21 PM on 02/07/2011
The Ricardian model of comparative advantage is based on limiting assumptions that don't apply in the real world... Free trade is a great idea as long as trade is really free among nations and they are playing in a ballpark according to the same rules. Clearly, many countries practice forms of mercantilism with national interests squarely in focus and have no intention of playing fair. In addition, the U.S. has become a victim of it's own capitalist excess in the creation stateless corporations that seek profit at all cost and who pay boatloads of cash to lobby our government to ensure that they can continue to operate this way.
07:00 PM on 01/29/2011
Corporate America is the reason for the downfall of the economy. Their main goal is to make a profit at all cost. If it means sending jobs overseas to improve the balance sheet, so be it. The long term profitable of the company and its share holders takes priority over the people and the country. It is also interesting to learn how many of these companies have foreigners as their main share holders. When a country can allow corporations to spend on their elected officials to pervert the policies that govern them. Take note of the countries that are currently reaping economical benefits. This is just the beginning. Sears, Walmart and all the others 90% of the product being supplied in them is from overseas because it is cheaper and more profitable. Car companies (Toyota, Nissan, etc) most of the parts for these motor vehicle is manufactured oversea and assembled here. In my opinion it is the corporation to blame for all that ails us.
09:39 PM on 01/25/2011
The long standing problem with the THEORY of comparativ­e advatage is we are dealing with humans, and with that comes the human nature trait of basic survival..­.which almost always includes "cheating" when some fall behind.
China has no problem displaying that and could care less about any other nation's desire to be a global leader in ANY industry!
HG Wells' time traveler originally THOUGHT the "Eloi" were advanced beings as they lived a life of leisure as others toiled to provide them with ther sustenance­! When will our "for sale" politician­s wake up to the fact that China has become the latest (after Japan, Germany etc.) "Morlock" in the game of industrial survival just as the time traveler witnessed the price the "Eloi" actually paid for their apathtic behavior? Only our survival is not a novel, nor a business "theory" to be followed, it is real life involving our hard fought for independen­ce, standard of living and the sovereignt­y of our nation!
The fact that all four great men on MT.Rushmor­e were protection­ists (Jefferson signed on after the war of 1812) speaks a lot for how how those who revere profits over patriotism are now in control and their strings are pulled by the lobbyists with the deepest pockets despite whatever nation they are representi­ng! Those who push this free trade fantasy will sacrifice our independen­ce dreaming of a theory that our own founders were against!
I ask you, are we a market or a nation?
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09:38 AM on 01/25/2011
The late Sir James Goldsmith tried to warn about GATT in 1994...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI
YouTube - 1. A prophetic interview with Sir James Goldsmith in 1994 Pt1

http://desip.igc.org/gatt01.html
Goldsmith on GATT: Part 1

"THE NEW UTOPIA: GATT AND GLOBAL FREE TRADE
by SIR JAMES GOLDSMITH

Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony

SENATE COMMERCE GATT IMPLEMENTA­TION
October 5, 1994

Global free trade has become a sacred principle of modern economic theory, a sort of generally accepted moral dogma. That is why it is so difficult to persuade politician ­s and economists to reassess its effects on a world economy which is changing radically.

The ultimate objective of global free trade is to create a worldwide market in products, services, capital and labour. Its instrument to achieve this is GATT, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

I believe that GATT and the theories on which it is based are flawed. If it is implemented, it will impoverish and destabiliz­e the industrial ­ized world while at the same time cruelly ravaging the third world..."

It's sad that we ignored warnings from Sir James.

We should be listening to people like Mr. Fletcher, Paul Craig Roberts, etc.
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muliolis
01:56 PM on 01/25/2011
I prefer listening to people like Don Bourdeax, Russ Roberts, George Reisman, etc. They make more sense.
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Robert SF
09:15 AM on 01/25/2011
But what allowed free trade to happen in the first place? The answer is technology. Without high-speed internet, India wouldn't be in the IT business. Without advanced robotics and automation, China wouldn't be in the manufacturing business. The real factor is automation, that is, our technological ability to replace human work with machine work.

Do this thought experiment: if we ended free trade, would technology still eliminate jobs? The answer, of course, is yes. Technology advances no matter what we do (short of total societal collapse). But doesn't technology create more jobs, jobs that are even better? No. It creates some jobs, always fewer than it eliminates, and while the jobs are better, it's precisely because they are better that they are out of reach of most. We can't all be computer programmers.

We shouldn't oppose technological progress. We couldn't succeed anyway. But we must, as a society, find a way to accommodate the fact that there isn't enough work for people. The market, even just the domestic one, depends on people spending all their money, but the unemployed have no money to spend.
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
09:32 AM on 01/25/2011
Of course, one of the problems behind the current unemployment rate is that the big corporations no longer depend on the American consumer to foster demand. They are increasingly selling to foreign countries, even when the middle class American consumer is side-lined. For years, one of the factors that contributed to the rising American middle class was that corporations needed an American middle class to make any money. That's not so anymore. They can survive very well without the great masses, which has been proven by the record profits over the past year or two, despite the miserable job situation.
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muliolis
01:57 PM on 01/25/2011
So are imports or exports the real problem? Make up your mind!
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muliolis
05:52 AM on 01/25/2011
Its no mystery why we have so much unemployment in the US, and its not free trade. America has the highest corporate income tax in the developed world, massive government spending, minimum wage, pro-labor policies by the government creating sticky wages, heavy government regulation on the state, local and federal levels making it hard for small businesses to open, operate, and hire workers, more regulation coming from the Obama administration and a mostly Democratic controlled Congress, and the likelihood of big changes to all that producing regime uncertainty. Given all the above, and more, is it any wonder businesses are reluctant to hire?

On top of that, we just came through a recession caused by the Federal Reserve's monkeying with the money supply and government incentives for home ownership.

Certainly, free trade costs jobs, but with the benefit of lower prices which allow the creation of more jobs to replace them. The question is why those new jobs aren't being created, and all the above is the answer.
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
09:01 AM on 01/25/2011
I believe the problem is more for lack of demand than anything else.
The causes for limited demand are numerous. Unemployment, less discretionary dollars to spend, job insecurity, housing value loss are a few.

One thing is obvious, giving the wealthy more money does not create much demand. I would suggest giving corporations more money (tax reduction) will not create demand and will only allow them to hoard more dollars.

So, in a sense I disagree with you, although I do agree with some of your comments.
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Robert SF
09:27 AM on 01/25/2011
Yes, yes, that's exactly why we're stuck. Every time technology has unemployed people, demand has increased enough to re-employ them. It's a logical process: technology increases productivity, resulting in lower costs, which allows price-competition, which leads people to buy more. But there are two limitations to this process.

The first limitation is that demand is finite after all. Practically speaking, even at a price of zero, demand is not infinite. How many potatoes would you take home if they were free? Once you have a laptop, a desktop, a smartphone, and a pad, how many more computers do you need, even cheap ones?

The second limitation is that, over time, ever greater increases in demand are needed to restore an ever dwindling number of jobs. This is simply the way percentages work. If you cut your cost of doing business by 10%, your business must go up 11.11% before your costs return to their former self.
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Robert SF
09:05 AM on 01/25/2011
Business conditions are actually much more restrictive in the other modern, Westernized countries. You have to go to the Third World, of which China and India are still a part, to see "better" business conditions. I put "better" in quotes because they're not really better; they simply allow business to shift their costs to society more readily. You'd have to be blinded by ideology to think business has it hard in the face of soaring corporate profits and executive bonuses.
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
09:25 AM on 01/25/2011
f & f
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muliolis
01:50 PM on 01/25/2011
And unemployment has historically been higher in those other countries. You prove my point. Many European countries have had chronic double digit unemployment rates while America's was around 5%. The high unemployment rate of 9-10% in America only happened after the housing bubble burst. Then Obama started messing with everything.

Just consider the effect of the health care bill. Two thousand pages that hardly anyone really understands, whose implications are impossible to know ahead of time (Pelosi's "We have to pass it so you can know whats in it"). What effect is that going to have on any business's bottom line? Will they be able to stop offering their employees health care benefits, or will those benefits become more expensive? Are the Republicans going to be able to roll it back? Abolish it in 2012? Will the Supreme Court challenges overturn it? What are you going to do? How are you supposed to decide whether or nto to hire more employees under such conditions?

And that is just ONE issue.

Have you ever tried to start a small business? How muc paperwork do you need to fill out? Who do you have to pay (or pay off)?

America has the highest corporate income tax in the developed world. And people in power like Van Jones saying nasty things about businessmen and threatening to do somethign about it.

And we have had the Fed monkeying with the money supply. Ever hear of the Austrian theory of the business cycle?
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LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
05:38 PM on 01/24/2011
I forced myself to read the whole article that you referred to. It was painful to see quotes from all those economists who cannot or will not see what is plain to many of us. Maybe it's a case of them being over-educated and too beholden and invested in their research and failed theories. One guy essentially said it's globalization's fault except it's not.

These guys really need to read your book!
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Ian Fletcher
Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America
06:22 PM on 01/24/2011
Thanks. Perhaps you should write to them and tell them.
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Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
05:18 PM on 01/24/2011
The winners in free trade are those nations willing to do the most damage to their environment and abuse their citizens the most!

There has always been cheap labor but the industrial revolution had to wait for the invention of the steam engine. And what is one of the cheapest ways to keep the steam engine running? Cheap dirty coal.

China 2009 consumed over 45% of all the coal burnt on the planet! I bet that number went up in 2010!

Any takers on the bet Mr. Economist?
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
09:19 AM on 01/25/2011
"The winners in free trade are those nations willing to do the most damage to their environmen­t and abuse their citizens the most!"

Excellent point!
03:49 PM on 01/24/2011
Perhaps the following will explain a major part of the mystery, all U.S. trade is affected by China’s innovative approach to protectionism :

China’s Innovative Way of Skinning the United States!

Mark Twain is credited with an early use of the cliché "more than one way to skin a cat" in A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court, as follows: “she was wise, subtle, and knew more than one way to skin a cat, that is, more than one way to get what she wanted”. Thefreedictionary.com defines beggar-thy-neighbor as: an international trade policy of competitive devaluations and increased protective barriers that one country institutes to gain at the expense of its trading partners. Under the guise of fostering ‘indigenous innovation’, the Chinese government has creatively used a non-conventional, subtle version of beggar-thy-neighbor. Its version doesn’t entail the competitive devaluation of its own currency, which would enhance China’s exports and inhibits its trading partners’ exports. China’s version perpetrates an over-valuation of the currencies of one or more of its trading partners. This negatively affects all the trade of the pegged trading partner(s), not just trade with China. During the recent period China pegged its currency to the U.S. Dollar, its version of beggar-thy-neighbor was 8 times as damaging to the U.S. economy as what the media refers to as “China keeping it currency undervalued”.