Obama's Clinton Dilemma
As Dave Neiwart points out over at FDL, the results for Hillary in North Carolina and Indiana were less than she needed, and may have destroyed her chances with the superdelegates. Her speech sounded suspiciously like a concession speech. Now anyone counting Hillary out until she formally says she's out is taking a big chance, this is the energizer bunny of candidates. But let's assume she will decide the gig's up and to throw in the towel and turn our eyes forward.
Obama has his work cut out for him. The possibility that a lot of Hillary's white working class base could turn to McCain or stay home should be a real worry for him. There's been a great deal of bitterness and anger on both sides of the fight. And, to be crass and point out the unpalatable truth, there isn't a lot in it for Hillary to back Obama in a more than pro-forma "going through the motions" fashion. If he loses, she's the presumptive nominee in 4 years, after all. If he wins, she probably has to wait 8 years, and she's not getting any younger. If she really wants to be president, well, Obama's still in the way. Now I'm not saying she won't help Obama even if such thoughts are going through her mind, no doubt she understands what another 4 years of a Republican presidency would mean. Still, there's help, and there's going all out. And there's a lot of space between the two.
So if I'm Obama; if I'm one of Obama's advisors, no matter how much I may share the view of some associated with the campaign about Hillary, I'd be thinking real hard right now about what it's going to take to bring her and Bill on board in a big way, so that they do everything possible to really deliver the votes of their supporters.
For Bill, probably a seat on the Supremes if the opportunity comes up (and it will, if Obama is elected.) For Hillary? Probably Senate Majority leader--it's not like Harry Reid really likes the job anyway.
For our hopes of there being a Democratic President taking office in 2009 I trust that similar thoughts are going through Obama's mind. Because he's going to need all the help he can get.
Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Indiana and North Carolina primary results
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Ian, Obama has mostly done what you have called him to do. He has not attacked Hillary the way she has attacked him. He has not demeaned her experience as she has his. He has not accused her of being unelectable. His taking the high road will pay off when the time comes. If the roles were reversed and somehow Hillary got the nomination, Obama would attempt to help her unify the party but I'm afraid there would be too many young, first time voters, as well as black voters, who would not be persuaded. His job as the nominee will be formidable, but reasonable compared to what hers would be.
I think there is a fatal flaw in your logic.
If Hillary Clinton doesn't pull out all the stops to help Obama, of her own volition, she will not get elected in 2012 should Obama lose in November. There will be a lot of angry folks, many of whom will blame her for the loss. So, she *has* to support Obama... **VISIBLY**. Of course, the potential flaw in that is that she *would* likely have to wait until 2016 if she does pull out all the stops.
One path potentially ruins her chances, while another path increases her chances in 2016. The latter path seems more likely because Hillary Clinton needs to stay relevant. If she can **claim** that she helped bring women, white working class, and older voters back into the fold, that would be a tremendous talking point for her. (It's likely that they will eventually back Obama against McCain, anyway) That's significant political power whether she decides to run at a later date, or simply to gain leverage with other prominent politicians to boost her standing.
In light of that, Obama doesn't really need to do anything to woo the Clintons. I'm not saying that he won't; he just doesn't *have* to. Self interest will get the Clintons on board.
You're presuming the Clintons are cold, calculating rationalists. If they really had a canny political sense and were rational, they would have gotten out of the race GRACEFULLY after Ohio. Probably just "suspend" their campaign, like Edwards and Romney. If some shocker came about, Hillary would have been in pole position to capitalize on it.
You actually make good points. However, there is something that you may have missed. The Clintons are reactionary opportunists. The fact is that many of her supporters will eventually support Obama when the race is set between him and McCain. Hillary may say otherwise right now, but her view is unfounded; right now McCain and Obama may be even in the polls, but look for a sizable shift toward Obama as we get into the summer.
So, Hillary Clinton will support Obama and will claim to bring along a coalition of voters who were already on their way to Obama anyway. And back to my original post.
I think you are right about Hillary being seen as a spoiler if Obama were to lose in the general election. I think she either doesn't realize this or thinks that she has always faced so much opposition and hostility that it doesn't matter to her "brand." The Clintons rely on the fact that the American public has the memory of a hyperactive goldfish. Who could have guessed when they left the White House in utter disgrace in 2000 that they would ever have another crack at it? That's pretty audacious. Everyone thought Bill Clinton would resign over the Monica thing at the time but he stayed in office. Like autistics they don't seem to know they're supposed to behave differently and ignoring public opinion regarding proper decorum doesn't seem to have seriously injured them yet.
The Republican party is going to "Swift Boat" Obama big time and he can use somebody who has been on the receiving end of that and knows how to deal with it. Frankly, the Obama camp has shown they have a very thin skin. If I were an adviser to his campaign, I would advise him to ask Hillary what she wants, should he win the nomination. Hillary has already offered him the VP slot if she were to win, which he turned down. If the superdelegates do give the nomination to Obama, they had better figure out how to save face for the Clintons.
Hillary and Bill are true Democrats and will do all they can to help Obama. Obama will lose this race if he doesn't run a good campaign against McSane. Believe it or not it could happen. All the republicans need is 51% of america and we got ourselves another four years of GWB. Am sure Hillary will do her part to help Obama but will Obama do his part to help Obama??
They don't need 51%, as demonstrated in 2000. Remember the Electoral College? Keep in mind when the Obama Camp is tirelessly touting the fact that they "won more states than Hillary during this primary campaign," most of those states are small red states that will go to McCain in the general election no matter what Obama says or does. Of the large electoral vote-heavy states, NY and Calif. will most likely go to Obama as traditional Dem strongholds (For argument's sake I'm assuming that indeed, Obama will be the nominee, although I'm unconvinced.), as will Illinois, his "home" state. Despite his "win" in the Texas Dem. Caucus, Obama will likely lose Texas. The other large states--Ohio, Pennsylvania, and oh yes--let's not forget Michigan & Florida, who likely now will be P-O'd at Obama & the DNC for disenfranchising them, will be up for grabs. Remember too that with the exception of Illinois, these large states went to Hillary. All those African American stronghold southern states Obama won (yes, including N. & S. Carolina) will likely go red as they usually do when their overwhelmingly conservative white majorities are heard in the general.
The only reason those small states go red is because the Democratic party abandoned them 16 years ago. That's why Gore lost, and Kerry lost. They thought "All we have to do is pick up NY, CA, and a few big states, and a few battle ground states.". They've been losing ever since.
You're not going to pick up a W VA, or a Wyoming or a Kentucky, etc. but Obama has the potential to mine quite a few states abandoned for over a decade to the Republicans. Unfortunately, states like PA, OH, and FL aren't gimmes. I can only hope OH voters feel stupid about how they got suckered to vote for Hillary, that they don't burn Obama twice.
Obama supporters are so sure that everyone else will ultimately love their candidate as they do, but be realistic--he hasn't even been able to convince half of his own party at this late date. Do you really think Hillary's supporters aren't sincere and are just being "contrarian?" You ought not assume that Obama's path to and stay in the White House will be a cake walk. Even if he wins, with the disfunctional no-results Democratic Congress, Obama could very well be another 1-termer like Carter. Hillary must be considering this and looking at 2012 for a possible run ala-Ted Kennedy '80. Also, if she thinks the Obama administration will fail, why would she want to be associated with it and taint her future chances?
Folks- Obama has not won the nomination in a landslide-there is hardly a 1% difference in votes- as Howard Dean said- this is essentially a tie. Both Obama and Hillary need the super delegates to hit the threshold of 2025.
Even if Obama clinches the nomination- that does not make him President. The general election picks the President.
If the Obamas and their surrogates continue to spew venom, hate, and personal insults at the Clintons- the 15 Million Hillary voters may just stay home or vote for McCain. Obama has no chance to win at all.
While I desperately want a Dem President, I do not want someone who insults and dis-credits the best President from the Dem party in more than a generation- Bill Clinton
Then stay home. Go join the Republicans and vote for John McCain. He's closer policy-wise to Clinton than Obama anyway. Clinton supporters are really closet Republicans. Be my guest, come out of your closet!
Obama has won the nomination. It's not a tie and it's not a landslide. It is a solid win based on a 50 state strategy. I guess everyone will have to decide what they will do in November. If a third Bush term works for you, then you can vote for McCain. I know that Clinton supporters talk about the negativity of Obama supporters, but it goes both ways. How many have called us cult members who are following an empty suit? It is the ultimate insult for those of us who took the time to seriously consider all candidates and came to our conclusion based on our own beliefs. Plenty of venom has been spewed by the Clinton supporters and plenty has been spewed by the Obama supporters.
I have long thought that I couldn't vote for Senator Clinton in November. However, when it comes down to it, I cannot vote for McCain. I cannot vote for a war that won't end. I cannot vote for someone that is so far from my views and morals. In the unlikely event that Hillary is the candidate, I will vote for her.
And I suppose, IAM4CLINTON, that your side of the aisle hasn't done ANYTHING to muddy this campaign? You will have to find a way to sooth your disappointment at your candidate not wining the Dem nomination and pitch in to fight McSame. Because if you cross over and vote Repub, then you should cross permanently and stop pretending to be a Democrat.
IAM4CLINTON - i am too.
The Obama campaign has been built on woman-hating and the most disgusting venom I've ever heard. I am one of the Hillary support who will not vote for this incompetent con man.
How would Obama's campaign ever think that we who have been assaulted by this disgusting campaign that any of us would help him.
My one compensation is that the vicious man will have to deal with those of us who have had to listen to their venom ... and he will have lost all of our votes.
I've been very disturbed by the tone of the campaign against H.C. as well, even tho' I I didn't vote for her. I've come to realize it's not from Obama , its from his supporters. Vote for the man , not the fans.
Can you give some specific examples of this "woman-hating" you're talking about? I haven't heard any. Perhaps I've been asleep and you can enlighten me. Please name names and provide direct quotes.
I cant agree more with you guys. Reading some comments both here and in other forums leaves me puzzled at the various claims of Obama's supporters that he is certain to be the next POTUS.
Most of those vaunted Red States Obama won are very very unlikely to go Blue in Nov.
If enough white women in CA, NY & Penn stay away (and dont underestimate how pissed off the Emily's List contributer is with the Obama camp) from the polls there is the real risk that CA & NY will atleast be closely fought in Nov. with Penn slipping into the Red column.
Obama, much as I am impressed with him needs to do a lot to first simple win over the 49% of his own party before he can even appeal to the moderates in the GOP. The Obama - Clinton matchup shows that the Democratic party is evenly split just as the Bush-Gore 2000 matchup illustrated that the country was evenly split.
If the Democratic party had the same "winner takes all" rules (which exist in most of the states in Nov.) that the GOP has, I think that Clinton with her win in NY, CA, Texas, Ohio and Penn would be the presumptive nominee.
I also cant, simple cant understand the venom I see from various Obama supporters in forums such as this against the Clinton presidency. Were you personally better off in 2000 or now in 2008? Was America better off in 2000 or in
John Edwards is right. Obama needs more kitchen table ideas. Since my "peeps" come from Oregon, and since my sister and brother-in-law still live there, (My brother-in-law is an Edwards fan), here are some kitchen table topics for Oregon.
1. Lumber. The lumber industry in Oregon is dying fast. Obama needs to come up with proposals for sustainable lumbering. (They abound.)
2. Salmon. The salmon population in Oregon is on the verge of extinction, so is Oregon's fishing industry. Obama needs to propose ways to save the salmon.
3. Farming. The family farm is getting wiped out by agri-businesses, which benefit from our lop-sided and inequitable farm subsidies program. Obama needs to propose ways to save the family farm.
4. Energy. Oregon has a large dead zone off the Pacific Coast with a heavy concentration of algae that is killing all the fish. Why can't we harvest the algae to produce biofuel? (It can be done. Read the October 2007 issue of National Geographic.) Oregon has a lot of marginal land, why can't we plant fuel crops on that land - like switch grass. We could use wind and/or solar power to convert the raw material into fuel. It can be done.
5. Oregon has a large number of senior citizens. Obama needs to propose ways to save Medicare. One way to save Medicare is to let any one enroll in it
I hope any one supporting Obama sends him these ideas.
Obama can read speeches from a tele-prompter very well. He will flunk if these issues are asked of him in a debate !
If Obama wins she has to wait no less than eight years, right? Not "probably" eight. Even if he loses the election in 2013 she still has to wait another 4 for the next election. That is no less than eight. And if he goes two terms it will be 12 years and she will be 72 years old. Maybe she will be a little more humble and smart by then?
But you are right, Ian. She will be the nominee in 4 years if he loses. That is why I don't trust her. She and Bill are very good at the "not that I am aware of" gaff. (referring to her answer to the question "is Obama a secret Muslim?") Bill will parse this to death and find ways to kill Barack's chances by way of goofy gaffs or some stupid statement.... I don't trust them. So she is the one that has work to do if she wants people to believe that she is sincere.
I have to say I'm very confused by your math.
That's not shocking, I've always been horrible at math. But I'm pretty sure 12 years is not the answer to any legitimate equation here.
Not as delusional as you Obama followers -I've already got my 'McCain' sign in the window...
So if she damages Obama, and Democrats view her as one of the main reasons John McCain would win, she's gonna be the "presumptive nominee" in 4 years? You Clintonistas are the most delusional folks on the planet.
Keith52 - you people are sick. All you do is spew your venom with no substance.
How will you like it when McCain has your buddy's Rev Wright on a loop? You're guy is flawed and none of you in your madness have paid attention to the possibility that others have a different view.
Many of us will not vote for a man who snowed you and made you feel all warm and fuzzy that you finally had a black friend....
Many of us already have black friends and won't vote for a con man who manipulates white guilt.
I've never voted for a Republican, but will now - you people have assaulted every woman in America with your sick woman-hating which is the entire basis of your guy's appeal
Dude, calm down. There is nothing misogynistic about Obama. It just happens that his opponent is a woman. He has never disrespected her gender. If you believe he has can you give an example? I am a woman and I would have a very difficult time voting for Hillary because she is so pro-corporate domestically and very much like a neo-con in her foreign policy. Can you keep this discussion about issues and facts rather than insults?
Show us some specifics about how Obama hates women. This is just pure unadulterated nonsense. He has run a far more generous and decent campaign than his competitor, and has never done anything remotely sexist. Unless winning more votes than a woman is "woman-hating".
Please add to the examples of "woman-hating" I requested your quotes of Obama when he was manipulating "white guilt". I've been following all of this much too closely, and I don't recall Obama ever once attempting to do that.
For my own part, I never thought of Obama as Black until Hillary mentioned MLK. I've considered him on his positions only. I don't agree with him on those positions, though I think he's marginally better than either Clinton or McCain.
Hillary will fade away as did her lack-luster husband. Has anyone forgot the Clinton gas tax? only 5 cents but, to working people a lot of money? sorry i got carried away,We need to heal the Democratic party, after all those who were elected to end the war. and the fine job they did of making bush understand that America wanted change and an end to The Bush War part 2( like father like son.) McCain will continue the war because he don't remember life without conflict. a few parting shots at Hillary, you didn't know Bill was getting monicas full attention? Guess you were paying to much attention to Ireland, or Bosnia,
lack-luster husband? ARE YOU HIGH?? Travel MySpace obamaniac.... and hear what the world says.
Remember Wright? His tapes - contrary to Obama's lies - are full of venom and be bought at his church... and BO has sat and listened for 20 years.
The problem with the Obama followers is that they can only follow his unless they are uninformed... wrabbit makes this case
I guess the fact that 25% of Democrats are African-American is irrelevant to most media sources. Where do you think that those voters, 92% of whom recently supported Obama, will be come election time if Clinton is the nominee. They have been the party's most loyal followers, not working class whites. If working class white svote against their interests, simply because a black man is the nominee ,than good for them when they are unemployed and have no heath insurance during the McCain years. At the least, blacks' decision not to vote if Clinton is the nominee serves a purpose. They will assert their strength to the party, and they will stand for the principle that winners win in a fair fight.
Furthemore, Democrats should be concerned about the trend of AA identifying as "independent" rather than "Democrat." Do you seriously think that they will vote for Ms. Clinton, especially when they appear to be disenchanted with the party to begin with? Blacks have been largely ignored as irrelevant come November, but I am concerned that we may lose our most loyal followers.
as have women WHO ARE 51% of the population
you people are going to die when the huge number of women that voted for Hillary don't vote for your guy or vote for McCain ... you have attacked us too much for us to help you out in November... stick with the Daily Kos
mayhew, surely you aren't saying you would base your decision on whom to vote for out of spite against a candidates supporters rather than the candidates character and values?
You'll vote for a candidate who is for war, against abortion, against civil rights, for torture...because some bloggers hurt your feelings?
they can't be THAT loyal if they'll see Mccain in . Thats the problem with one issue voters- they throw down their toys and go home if they don't get their way.
So, are you saying that the only important factor in choosing a Pres is the color of his/her skin..?
Gee.. wonderin' where all those Clinton-supporters will go...
The Clinton supporters who vote Republican in the fall will do that because they've ALWAYS been republicans, or at least republican leaning.
Obama - Hill, it's been fun, but its over. I'll pay your campaign debts if you drop out now, but not if you wait more than a week. And you and Bill gotta work it like you mean it - for me and Richardson in the Fall.
Hillary in 2012----good things will happen over time
hillary never. we do not need a liar republican-lite for president.
Delusional as ever! Clintonistas take the cake. Do me a favor, and register as a Republican. Clinton will run on the REPUBLICAN ticket in 2012 because Obama will be the incumbent.
you people have doomed yourselves by your lynch-mob mentality ... you have alienated the vast number of Hillary supporters and we won't vote for your token black guy in the fall - you've shot yourselves in the foot this time. Enjoy your short time of beating us to death... you'll dead in the water in November.
The disbarred impeached ex-President on the SC? Puhleese! And I don't see Hillary as having a lot of clout in the Senate after the gas tax hot potato she threw their way recently. It was an "either you're with me or against" threat or possibly plea and I doubt very many if the Senators and Representatives appreciated it. We'll see where it goes.
What Obama needs is a party that will back him against repub operatives like Donna Brazille defended him against Alex Castellano and Begala. I have new admiration for that woman!
Personally, except for her devoted women, I suspect "working class whites" are interested in Hillary mainly because WJ comes with the package. While it's true that some of them would never vote for a Black man or woman, some of them may realize finally which side their bread is buttered on and vote Dem..
Are you joking?
Bill---a Supreme?
Why must Obama pay the Clintons off for almost
destroying the party, nastily using Republican talking points,
dissing Obama as balless and maybe a Muslim extremist (as far
as she knows,) and pandering to the media about Rev. Wright.
Why can't they just support HIM as committed Democrats who want
what's best for the party? Or do we consider them royalty, now?
I find your assertions a bit galling that Obama has to bring THEM on
board. Isn't he trying to beat McCain--not coddle the Clintons.
None of us will support Obama - you lunatics have alienated all of us. Why would Hillary WANT to work with Obama? She actually has accomplished things in her life... it would be working with a second-rater
Hey, what HAS she accomplished, except, of course, for marrying Bill?
When considering the blantently obvious math of Hillary's no-win campaign, I have to wonder if this truly self-absorbed and delusional woman has ever stopped indulging her over-sized ego long enough to consider the kind of provocative change and powerful impact her newly borrowed millions could have on the truly needy -if she pulled out of the race and spent her abundant funds where it really mattered? In other words, think of all the homeless that could be housed, the starving that could be fed, the gas tanks filled, etc, etc etc...
Yet...instead, she chooses to spend her millions to stay in a race she can't possibly legitimently win -at least not without lying, cheating, and/or changing all the rules along the way. So...I wonder: where are this woman's ethics? (Oh that's right, integrity and decency were simply the flashy costumes she wore in order to get her through the door)
Hillary, it's not too late to step away from the dark side and do something truly significant with that 6.4 million dollars!
A lot depends on what the Clintons decide to do. I think Obama has already shown a great deal of deference for Hillary. If the Clintons show some real respect for Obama in their rhetoric and their actions, I think things will change. I also think Obama should take on John Edwards as an adviser. Edwards really understands the populist strategy, and Obama might benefit from a little mentoring to hone his message.
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