THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND IRAQ GOVERNMENT IS COUNTING ON A DECADES-LONG U.S. PRESENCE
Iraqi defense minister sees need for U.S. help in Iraq until 2018. Abdul Qadir, the Iraqi defense minister, said Monday that Iraq would not be able to take full responsibility for its internal security until 2012, nor be able on its own to defend itself from external threat until at least 2018. The comments were among the most specific public projections of a timeline for the American commitment in Iraq and suggested a longer commitment than either the U.S. or Iraqi government had previously indicated. Mr. Qadir was in the United States for a weeklong visit to discuss the two nations' long-term military relationship, starting with how to build the new Iraqi armed forces from the ground up over the next decade and beyond, with American assistance. [NY Times, 1/15/08]
POTENTIAL GROWS FOR CONFLICT IN THE NORTH
Kurdish leaders responded angrily to calls by Sunnis and Shi'a to eliminate referendum on Kirkuk. The president of Iraq's Kurdish region warned Monday that Kurdish leaders would resist efforts to scrap plans for a referendum on the fate of the multiethnic city of Kirkuk. His tough comments came a day after nearly a dozen political parties in Baghdad challenged Kurdish designs by calling for the central government to impose a solution. Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani fired back at his Arab opponents who argued that Kirkuk -- a home to Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens -- is no longer subject to an article in the Iraqi Constitution calling for a general referendum on disputed territories to be held by the end of 2007. "There is no turning back," Barzani said in Irbil. "The referendum must be conducted in the next six months." [LA Times, 1/15/08]
U.S. SHIFTS SUNNI STRATEGY
Focus moves from neighborhoods to the parliament in an effort to get government jobs for thousands of men now working in local security programs. U.S. officials, wary of creating parallel constabulary units that would rival government-controlled forces, have ramped up efforts to persuade the Baghdad government to attach the 70,000 members of mostly Sunni Arab groups to the Iraqi police or civilian work corps. The move marks an important shift in U.S. efforts to bring rival Shi'a and Sunni factions together. U.S. officials have acknowledged that the Iraqi police forces are not large enough to absorb all 70,000 of the men. Lt. Gen. Odierno said last month that fewer than a quarter will become government security personnel, thus U.S. officials have begun a pilot program to develop a civil service corps to employ the men. So far, however, progress has been limited. Officials of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's government, fearing the creation of a potential rival army, are resisting the move. U.S. military officials fear that opposition could send the former insurgents among the Sunni guard corps, back into the battlefield. [LA Times, 1/14/08]
SOME STUDENTS- AND MILITIAS- RETURN TO BAGHDAD UNIVERSITY
At Baghdad University more stable routine returns, marked by uncertainty. With the lull in violence, more people are returning to their studies at Baghdad University, the largest university in Iraq with some 80,000 undergraduates. Students note that the situation at the improved has improved but that gains are tentative. "If you will compare the security situation to last year it is much better. Last year even the professors were afraid to come to class," a student said. "But of course the militias are inside the university, and they're involved in almost everything." Several students, however, described a persistent culture of intimidation and intolerance. Fliers celebrating the family of Moqtada al-Sadr, the leader of one of Iraq's most powerful Shiite militias, are tacked to campus buildings, despite the administration's ban on political activity on campus. The majority of women wear head scarves and say that dressing in a more Western style, which many say they prefer, attracts dangerous attention in the strict religious climate. "You know, for example, we are two girls and a man," said a computer science student, as she sat with friends eating popcorn in the cafeteria. "Some people don't like this idea at all, girls talking to a man. They will instantly mark you with an X. These people are savages."[Washington Post, 1/15/08]
TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH ON TURK-IRAQ BORDER
Turkey bombs Kurdish area in northern Iraq. Turkish warplanes bombed Kurdish rebel hideouts in northern Iraq on Tuesday. It was the fourth aerial attack on Kurdish rebel hideouts in northern Iraq since the military launched a bombing campaign in December. [AP, 1/15/08]