Following is a year-end index of 2009 Jack Myers Media Business Reports, linking to the subscriber-only archive at www.jackmyers.com. If you are a subscriber and not able to access the archive, e-mail email@example.com for access information. For subscription details visit www.myersreport.com.
The range of forecasts for the advertising economy in 2010 is unprecedented, representing a spread of 12 percent from negative six percent to positive six percent. In this report I focus on the positive news for the media business in 2010.
Marketers will spend an estimated $800 million in 2009 on social media, word-of-mouth and conversational marketing, increasing 23% over 2008 levels with growth projected to $3.2 billion in 2012.
Advertising will represent only 26.8% of total marketing expenditures in 2009 ($188 Billion), with below-the-line non-advertising marketing categories, often called "unmeasured media" representing 73.2% ($513.5 B). Marketers are drawing from these budgets to fund a growing array of media company offerings that exploit emerging interactive media capabilities.
MarketShare Partners (MSP) is gaining the attention of leading marketers, agencies and media companies based on sophisticated strategic marketing analytics that are redefining marketing measurement and providing unequaled tools for marketing budget allocation
Online Video Advertising Grows 115% in 2009 (11-30-09)
Online video advertising will increase 115 percent to $968 million in 2009 and is forecast to be the fastest growing segment of the media industry through 2012.
In-depth details highlighting the top five sales attributes of 56 general interest cable and broadcast television network, based on the results of the Jack Myers Media Business Report Survey of Advertising Executives.
Advertising cannot be depended upon to fund an endless supply of companies and services. We are at a turning point in the advertising industry – and the decisions being made by major marketers and media companies over the next two to three years will define the fundamental future of media throughout the world.
Report on those networks that are personified by offering valuable Online, Mobile and Multi-Platform Opportunities.
First in a series of reports on general entertainment network organizational attributes, based on exclusive research conducted by Jack Myers Media Business Report among our panel of advertiser and media agency executives
Is there an industry need for innovative media measurement? More to the point, is there a need for leading television networks, media agencies and marketers to organize a coalition to advance innovation in media measurement?
The media industry, which grew at a rate greater than 5.0% annually for four decades due to subscriber payments, affiliate fees and advertising revenues, is declining at an even more precipitous rate and there is little visibility for the future.
The industry's only detailed insights on 2009 and 2010 Spanish language advertising expenditures in network television, radio, newspapers, magazines, online and out-of-home.
Review of the recent changes at Condẻ Nast and a review of the overall prognosis for magazine publishing companies as the business continues to transform around digital expansion and free content distribution.
A preliminary analysis of the challenges, potential conflicts and opportunities suggests a generally positive prognosis for the long-term overall economic viability of the potential venture.
In 2009, total advertising revenues are projected to be $201.8 billion and total marketing revenues are projected to be $700 billion. In 2015, advertising revenues are projected by Jack Myers Media Business Report to grow to $253.2 billion while total marketing expenditures (including advertising) increase to $809.1 billion. Unless the media industry responds, an estimated $46 billion could be left on the table between 2010 and 2015.
Looking back at Upfront spending patterns in the recession years of 1991 and 2001 uncovers some surprising and hopeful evidence that this year's Upfront declines are consistent with these past two recession-impacted Upfronts and that future prospects are brighter than many analysts anticipate.
Preview of estimated full-year 2009 ad spending data plus an opinion of the recent strategic moves by Tim Armstrong at AOL.
Today's report focuses on the resilience of traditional media empires and the self-destructive patterns of new media that are holding back progress, development and economic growth.
"Will the scatter market be strong?" I share insights on likely scatter market conditions and some interesting nuances to the just-concluded Upfront. Also in this report is my first look at the long-term economic prospects for the broadcast and cable network advertising marketplace.
Upfront Results are Not Bad for the Networks (08-10-09)
Although many believe this year's drawn out process signifies dramatic and sustaining changes in the Upfront market, in fact the Upfront turned out to be a reasonably traditional process with predictable results. I outline the reported performance of broadcast and cable networks and explain some of the dynamics that reinforce misleading perceptions of Upfront results
What's behind the success at Universal McCann? A completely new approach to industry relationships spear-headed by Global CEO Matt Seiler, North America president Jacki Kelley and SVP New Business Jen Hohman.
As a baseball fan, I'm fascinated by how quickly the institution of Major League Baseball, team owners, players, agents and others are embracing a revolutionary technology-based system. I cannot help but compare MLB's embrace of technological advances to the quagmire the media industry finds itself in today and the industry's stall in advancing breakthrough technology-based innovation.
SpotWinner is a new form of online and mobile advertising that features the :30-second commercial as the destination in a fun, entertaining online casual game format.
Although several industry executives and investment analysts believe the media economy will experience positive signs for renewed growth this year, the reverse is the unfortunate reality.
The Upfront That Could Have Been (07-06-09)
As the broadcast network television Upfront moves forward quietly and with little momentum, it's becoming clear that procurement and financial officers of major marketers are dictating the pricing decisions and driving Upfront purchasing models. Based on the deals that are being negotiated and completed, overall apples-to-apples cost-per-thousand pricing is down compared to last year with total Upfront sales down considerably, leaving a higher than normal percentage of inventory available for scatter markets. Exceptional deals are available to marketers who would agree to flat to modest CPM increases, but instead of capitalizing on these potential opportunities, marketers are walking away from incumbencies and category exclusivities, ignoring major long-term relationships in return for cost efficiency considerations. In this week's subscriber report, I share detailed insights into this year's Upfront market conditions.
PlaceVine is a web-based matchmaking service that connects marketers to brand integration opportunities across film, TV, and new media. There are over 400 content producers and 225 brands and agencies currently using PlaceVine.
Will CBS Be the Wal-Mart of Media? (06-22-09)
Across all segments of the economy -- from auto dealerships, to retail shelves, to entertainment venues, to sports events, and to media – we are experiencing an inversion of the supply/demand equation that has spurred economic growth for the last six decades.
Although marketers, agency executives and even network TV salespeople have been challenging the relevance of the network television Upfront marketplace for more than a decade, it has remained the predominant influence in media buying and selling. This year's Upfront results will have significant impact on the future of the network television business for many reasons.
Privately financed early-stage mobile technology company LinkMe Mobile (formerly SnapNow U.S.), has the potential to revolutionize mobile search through patented visual, voice and audio search technologies. LinkMe Mobile is redefining how brands and advertisers connect with consumers. Now in the process of raising institutional B-round financing, LinkMe Mobile was founded by engineers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab in 2001. The company holds five patents with 27 additional patents pending globally. With its patents and sister brands in the UK, Japan and China, LinkMe Mobile is the only multi-national company to combine visual, voice, and audio recognition technology to create instant mobile interactivity for marketers, media companies and consumers. With the current number of global mobile phone users at over 4 billion and growing, mobile marketing is quickly becoming an effective and proven means for consumer engagement.
Laura Martin, Entertainment, Cable and Internet Analyst for Media Metrics/Soleil Securities expresses concern "about the slippery slope of professional content (CBS, Disney/ABC, NBC, Fox, Viacom, etc) moving from the TV to the PC." Martin calculates that "up to $300B of market cap across the entire television value chain is at risk."
Myers Publishing has been issuing reports on the network TV Upfront market since 1987, on television media sales organization performance since 1984 and on online media sales organizations since 2000. Insights on advertiser and agency perceptions and priorities are even more relevant this year as advertisers and their media agencies plan their Upfront strategies and consider broadcast, cable and online plans that respond to the economic recession. Led by Procter & Gamble, marketers sent word last year to agencies and networks that they would seek reductions of as much as 20 percent in cost-per-thousand while demanding that historical presence levels be retained. P&G's pricing memo stirred debate and dialogue and has proven to be misguided and unrealistic, as market pricing for the strongest networks is proving to be resilient even in the face of economic pressure. While networks may recalibrate their client mix and advertisers may reallocate their budget distribution, most plans fail to embrace the one-TV world and still differentiate between broadcast and cable TV. While there are legitimate reasons, the status quo seems to be intact in the Upfront for at least one more year.
First Look at 2011 Ad Spending Projections (05-04-09)
The most likely scenario for a turn-around of the current media industry economic downturn suggests mid-to-late 2010, based on a typical six-month lag between GDP growth and an advertising rebound.
For decades, advertising and media companies could reliably depend on ad spending to track consistently with gross domestic product. During recessionary periods, advertising has been a lagging indicator. Marketers maintained their ad spending until sales declined for two quarters and then held back on spending increases until six months after the recovery began.
As we entered 2008 many believed digital media would be the panacea to cure whatever might be ailing the media industry. All of a sudden, the proverbial shit hit the fan. This report outlines the economic challenges faced by advertising dependent companies beyond the current recession, and suggests the single greatest opportunity for sustained growth.
Goldman Sachs analysts identify three overriding themes for 2009 based on an analysis of 4Q earnings transcripts from the top 100 U.S. advertisers and various media companies' management comments.
The fact is that advertising is on the decline as a relevant weapon in the marketer's arsenal. It appears that most marketers consider advertising as little more than a distribution system for carrying advertising messages in multiple formats from point A to point B. Even as digital technologies have empowered an increasingly sophisticated set of communications enhancements, advertising remains the step child of the marketing business.
Advertisers are asking networks to ante up to innovative add-ons such as sponsorships, online packages, promotional initiatives and other non-traditional enhancements.
NBC Universal Cable Networks, Hallmark Channel, Rainbow Networks (AMC/We), Scripps Networks and Turner Entertainment Networks rate as the top five general entertainment cable networks for delivering value for the investment.
Advertiser and agency executives who spend more than 75% of their time working with online media rank Nickelodeon Online as the #1 website for delivering the most engaged and targeted audiences. Six other TV-based sites are included in the top 15 sites among 52 branded sites.
Media and other advertising-dependent companies need to brace for challenging times ahead and accelerate initiatives to attract revenues from alternative sources. Success will be on a company-by-company and market-by-market basis within most traditional media categories and will depend on companies' strategic responses to current industry conditions.
Could it be that marketers are just not that into the benefits of advertising anymore? Could it be that advertising is no longer valued as an important contributor to business success? Or, even more threatening, is it conceivable that marketers never really considered advertising to have any real value beyond a low-cost mass distribution vehicle for their ad messages?
Nickelodeon Kids and Family Group has been named Best TV Sales Organization of 2008 by more than 250 advertiser and agency executives who participated in this year's Myers Survey of Advertising Executives on National TV Value and Sales Organization Performance.
Online video and social network advertising growth this year could be considerably less than expected, while online display and search advertising could be slightly better. As marketers retrench and concentrate budgets with media they perceive to be tried and true, agency buyers and planners appear to be gun-shy in recommending new options.
Welcome to 2009. There is hardly a glimmer of positive news for the global and national economy. President-elect Obama will be challenged to create a national consensus behind his vision for a renewed sense of purpose and focus on the future. We in the media and advertising industry should also define our vision and have a renewed sense of purpose.
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