While Storm Clouds Gather, Obama Must Get Busier

The Sept. 12 NY Times has a front page piece that no doubt speaks to millions: "Obama's Tone Sharpens as Party Frets."

The story discusses how some Democrats are concerned that the focus of the campaign has wandered in the two weeks since the convention in Denver, particularly in the wake of wall-to-wall coverage surrounding the new celebrity, Sarah Palin.

The race has tightened up, we're told, and the intensity of Barack Obama's paid media and on-the-stump performance is finally starting to reflect this changed reality.

It's about time. I've been antsy for weeks, and it only worsened when this quote jumped out the other day:

"This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."

- Rick Davis, John McCain campaign manager

Pretty brazen comment. It certainly fits how the Republicans would love to see things play out, especially since most Americans have been agitated for years about "issues" like the Iraq war and the economy. The issues are not a Republican's friend.

Unfortunately, Davis may be on to something unless the Obama campaign gets in the game.

The Democratic Party primaries were also about "a composite view" of candidates, not issues. Both frontrunners came with their own cult of personality, and they essentially agreed on every subject. Ultimately, Obama outlasted Hillary Clinton, even though they ended in a virtual tie in popular votes (18 million each) and neither had enough pledged delegates to win the nomination outright. People are naturally drawn to personalities.

Democrats -- going against their tradition -- consistently told pollsters the past 18 months that they were happy with the presidential field. Even in March of this year, after Obama's string of 11 straight wins, Democrats still wanted Clinton to stay in the race by a 2 to 1 margin. Result? Summer polls had Obama's numbers spiking appreciably when paired with his vanquished rival, whose candidacy was every bit as historic as his own.

Indeed, as noted in late July, Obama vs. McCain yielded a statistically meaningless Obama lead, while a mythical matchup of Obama-Clinton beat McCain-Romney by a much bigger 9 points, well outside the margin of error. Polling actually showed the same thing for three straight months, starting in late April (question #3 in pdf here).

This voter sentiment was a notable finding, yet at the end of the day, Obama didn't think it mattered. McCain apparently did.

Another reason Davis has a point is that elections take place in the real world. The impact of the Palin pick is about as real as it gets, particularly among white women (from an 8 point Obama lead before the conventions to a 12 point McCain lead, a 20 point swing in the Washington Post poll), and independents (a 12-15 point McCain lead in Gallup depending on how they're measured). Mind you, this is post-convention polling. It would be fair to assume this turnaround is a surprise at Obama headquarters.

McCain-Palin are no longer behind on the issues, either. The Post poll finds that only 4 in 10 think Obama has done enough to explain what he means by "change." McCain leads by 17 points on the question of handling a crisis, and by 10 points on dealing with Iraq. (We've let that slip?) On whether Palin is qualified to be President, 47% think so, but only 50% say Obama has enough experience.

On the economy, a subject that's historically the Democrats' calling card, Obama's lead is down to 5 points, the topic's closest margin of the year. If this keeps up, we'll need to see Joe Biden in a blue coral pantsuit!

The support Clinton might have provided Obama with her populist economic message and army of women has, to some degree, crossed over to the other side. Not all of them were liberal feminists, obviously. It was mainly a sisterhood thing. The decision not to choose the New York senator created a breach that McCain sauntered into with Palin. It will be the single biggest "game changer" of the entire '08 election if it leads to a third Bush term through McCain.

But what's done is done. Wailing about retro Palin's loony views on global warming (not man-made) or creationism (dinosaurs roamed the earth only 4,000 years ago!) will earn nods of approval in the fur-lined traps of Georgetown's elite liberal salons. It will not, however, grab victory on November 4th.

After all, everyone already knows her thin résumé: small town mayor (5,000), less than two years as governor of the least populous state (670,000), zero experience outside that isolated orbit. It doesn't matter. In today's American Idol culture, spunk and moxie qualify as leadership in helping guide the most powerful secular nation on the planet, 300 million people, through complicated affairs at home and abroad. In these TMZ times, it seems that knowing the "Bush Doctrine" isn't a job requirement for the #2 federal executive position, a "heartbeat away," as they say, from succeeding McCain.

Magna cum laude at Harvard? A lineage that spans continents? How about 12 years in the Illinois legislature and U.S. senate? None of that is considered better preparation by a voting public that graduates high school without even knowing when the American Civil War took place. A public that in adulthood can't name either the Chief Justice of the nation's Supreme Court or our first-ever female Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Fighting Palin's lack of credentials is therefore a non-starter. Obama must reclaim the issues, and fast. Issues, issues, issues.

Meanwhile, McCain's handlers market him as a war hero from the Vietnam era. None of this was ever going to be easy, so Obama should not have crowed a mere six weeks ago that "We are now in the position where the odds of us winning are very good." One can only hope Obama's team has a plan for fighting hard, and from behind, because the more important state-by-state polls may well show similar trends on the heels of the latest national polling.

I'm not depressed, just a worried realist. Sure, the commercial "air war" has yet to fully play out, and there's the debates, and Hill/Bill will campaign for Barack, and there's the chance that Sarah stumbles.

Let's take them in reverse order: 1/ If dem chances rest on Palin gaffes, we're clinging to a thin reed. 2/ Surrogates don't swing elections. They're not on the ballot. 3/ Al Gore won all his debates, and John Kerry did, too. The better man still lost. 4/ In terms of TV ads, the message is crucial, but McCain, his party and their 527's should be financially competitive, not to mention shamefully dishonest. They already are.

The political hurricane is approaching, and we need to batten down the hatches. It will take an awfully swift boat to ride these rapids.

Comments

[Bobrobert]

roflmao

doom doom doom doom

Just like the primaries.

Flash - with all the doom = OBAMA WON the primaries.

Obama / Biden 08 = on a mission from God!!!!

[Bullfrog]

Way too late Jackson. Obama totally blew it when he broke his agreement to have Hillary as his VP.
Democratic power brokers don't intend to lose this one because it could be the end of the Democratic Party as a major player. It will be sooner than later that you see Hillary Clintons name on the Democratic ticket, and it won't be for VP either.

[goldnchyl]

broke his agreement? i think its safe to say that all you guys know how to do is lie, lie, lie ... not a factual word from any of you

[dadw5boys]

The John McCain campaign is sending out
FAULTY ABSENTEE VOTER REGISTRATION FORMS.

So far voters in Ohio, Virginia, and New Mexico have received them.

They may be trying to have you dropped from the voter registration list (i.e. "caging"),
but they are definitely trying to cause confusion with Democratic voters.

There is no evidence that the McCain campaign is sending absentee ballots to Republican voters.

If you get one...
DON'T USE IT!

YOU SHOULD HANG ON TO IT,
IT MAY BE USABLE AS EVIDENCE of ELECTION FRAUD

[arthur2008]

John "Country First" McCain is likely to continue the shameless lies that have been the one and only cornerstone of his campaign, rather than make what can only be a losing effort to defend the corrupt and disastrous policies he and Bush-Cheney have subjected the nation to for the eight most calamitous years in our history.

[roserover]

Dear Barack:

Here is how to win.

Tactical: smile at the cameras from now til you are elected (enough scowling!)

Strategic: Its the 21st Century, stupid!

Your supporter, Rose

[walk0nwalls]

The end part of your thing was so full of taglines I might just vomit up one myself.

Um....Tax and spend.

[mezz1962]

Arsino Hall? Um that was like last century you mean you could not come up with a person who is actually alive?

WTF he is still alive!!! he must be hanging out with Biden

[Laws456]

PALIN SHOWED THE WORLD IN HER ONE INTERVIEW THAT SHE DOESN'T KNWO ANYTHING. sHE OBVIOUSLY WAS PREPPED, WHICH ISN'T A BAD THING, BECAUSE THEY ALL ARE, BUT SHE WAS PREPPED FOR TWO WEEKS FOR ONE, SINGLE INTERVIEW. THE WHEELS ARE GONNA FALL OF THEIR BUS REAL SOON. STOP WORRYING. BIDEN WILL DO HIS JOB AND SMASH HER AT THE DEBATES. BUT THE SUPPORT FOR BARACK MUST NOT DIE DOWN. HER NEXT INTERVIEW, WHICH OF NO SURPRISE TO ANYONE IN HERE WILL BE WITH MR A$$&OLE HIMSELF, SEAN HANNITY. IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY FOOLISH AND LIGHT-HEARTED INTERVIEW. MATTER OF FACT THEY WON'T EVEN DO IT ON THE HANNITY & COLMES SHOW BECAUSE THE REPUBLICANS DON'T WANT COLMES TO GO AFTER HER THE WAY HANNITY WON'T. REAL RECOGNIZES REAL AND PALIN IS NOT A FAMILIAR. REMEMBER THAT!!!!!

OBAMA 08' & 12'

[salvesons]

6. KATRINA, KATRINA, KATRINA.
7. GET HILLARY IN COMMERICIALS PROMOTING OBAMA. He makes statements that he will appoint her to his cabinet, and she says she's delighted.
8. ASK WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?
9. tv ads with BUSH CANOODLING WITH ARABS (a little low? yes, but make it about oil prices, rather than xenophobic.)
10. McCAIN ADULTERY + 7 HOUSES ADS - it has to be said, he's gone back on his word to a wife before. WOULD YOU MARRY MCCAIN?

Done.

[Laws456]

Everyone needs to stop saying how Barack messed up by not selecting Hillary as his mate, how does anyone in here know that Hillary wanted that position? Pre-Palin, this issue was was almost non-existent, now that she has been picked as a VP everyone wants to back track. Look, Hillary can still be a force in politics as a Senator, probably even more so as a Senator than the VP. Let's relax and focus on what is here and now. This backtracking you people are doing are just feeding into the Republicans scheme of things. WAKE UP PEOPLE. Just think about it, the same Hillary supporters are the same ones who were spreading lies about Barack to begin with, and you know what, HE BEAT HER. Maybe not by much but he did. If he could beat the HillBilly's (Hillary & Bill) (No offense, cause I like the both of them) he can definitely beat the McPalin's. Stay focused on McCain....let the Palin story die down, reporters here on Huff Post also, if you're reading this....JUST IGNORE HER AND TREAT HER LIKE SHE IS STILL GOV. OF ALASKA AND FORGET ABOUT HER. THIS IS WHAT THEY WANT. KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE PRIZE.

[Jackson Williams - Huffpost Blogger]

I agree with you that there's no way of knowing whether Hillary wanted the veep spot. She may well have turned it down based on her own calculations. Over the summer, Keith Olbermann snidely likened Obama picking her to "a reprieve from the Governor." His characterization was wrong, and you're right: It was her call to accept or decline. In any event, we now know Obama didn't offer it and never even considered her.

It is not correct, however, to say that "pre-Palin, this issue was almost non-existent." As I pointed out, polls throughout the summer showed Obama with a negligible lead in a straight-up head to head against McCain, but the lead consistently jumped to almost double digits when Obama was paired with Hillary.

Clearly, this issue wasn't "non-existent" in the hearts and minds of the people.

Part of the recent McCain jump in the polls is because the base of the Republican Party finally united thanks to Palin's conservative views (and they'd never really trusted McCaim himself on that score). But part of the jump is gender related, too. After all, not all of Hillary's female supporters (maybe not even most) were liberal feminists or hard-core political activists; plenty just liked the idea of a woman. For many of them, the transfer of allegiance to Palin was apparently easy.

[salvesons]

I know Dems have the energy to fight back this time. We all have to pitch in. Simple soundbites and we can haggle after we win.
1. McCain = Bush. Has to be done, hard, works every time.

2. People have forgotten that Obama became popular because he had a backbone about the war. Return to that winning hand, such as "4 trillion in the hole - i didn't vote for that. I DID NOT VOTE FOR THAT." Let them say you voted for it later, flip flop, so what?, if so you flopped on the SIDE OF THE TROOPS AFTER THEY WERE IN HARM'S WAY. That is unassailable. Done.

3. REPUBLICANS RAISE TAXES. Think it won't work. Try spending $50 MILLION DOLLARS on ads that show Papa Bush saying "read my lips" next to details about his tax raises. Bring that back into play, and you can win an election. Bush clips such as "the haves and the have-mores" clips next to a record his gifts to the rich and big oil.

4. REPUBLICANS COST YOU MONEY. And just a long long long list of the cost of the war, Fannie, and the chart of housing prices over the last two years.
5. Where is Biden? He has to be an 24-hour ATTACK DOG MACHINE. has to.
6. LET'S GET TO FIXING THIS COUNTRY, IT WON'T HURT TOO BAD TO GET THE COUNTRY BACK TO NORMAL RULE OF LAW, WE PROMISE. Something like that...

[kontrhovercie]

Obama's campaign would be over if:

-he called his wife a trollop and c++t in public.

-he couldn't remember what border Afghanistan was on.

-he kept confusing Iraq with Iran.

-he involved himself in a regional conflict that has no strategic value to this country.

-he surrounded himself with a lobbyist operation of 150 people to manage his campaign.

-he dumped his 1st wife for a 24YO heiress to a beer fortune, committing adultery in the process.

-he had a lobbyist that got him to intercede with the FCC on broadcasting licensing with a potential sex angle involved.

-he was 72 years old with a medical history of numerous occurrences of cancer.

-he was celebrating his birthday with a cake while New Orleans was drowning.

-he was in a Party that has been a governing disaster for the past 8 years.

-he had falsely fingered Iraq for the 9/11 attack.

-he had fellow Senators of his Party publicly worried about his temper and temperament to be POTUS.

-he couldn't remember how many houses he owned.

-he violated campaign rules about flying in private aircraft, owned by his wife, at n/c to his campaign.

-he thought rich was making $5MM/year.

-he let Michelle show up for his nominating convention, wearing $280,000 worth of jewels.

-he continued to lie about his VP's accomplishments. particularly on earmarks and the bridge to nowhere.

-he graduated 894/895 in his class and crash 4 jets while in the military.

[macbeth]

Joe Biden was not the best choice for veep. he is yesterday's story and our attraction to obama was tomorrow but we seem to be getting more of the same.

[macbeth]

Obama ran such a wonderful primary but he now seems to be flagging. Could it be that race has become an issue? Or that voters are anxious about his early experience in a Muslim household in Indonesia? Or that his lack of experience is frightening them more now than during the primaries? Or could it be the reverend Wright association that lingers in voters mind? Or that women yearn for a female candidate and when they couldn't have Hillary they want Palin? Perhaps someone out there has an answer.

[claysmom]

In today's global economy, would we ever even consider electing McCain - someone who admittedly doesn't even know how to use a computer?? How much farther do we want to be behind other developed countries in this global economy? How can he possibly understand the implications that technology holds for this country?