How Obama Can Finally Break Free in the Polls: Hillary

Six days into Barack Obama's international tour, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows the race for president remains tight, with only two points separating the presumptive nominees, 45% to 43%, on combined data from July 21-23. Odd.

Everything has gone well for Obama on this foreign excursion, and John McCain spent the week floundering from gaffe to gaffe, while his campaign expressed an immature, petulant tone toward the positive coverage generated by the senator from Illinois.

So this begs a question: Why so close? Shouldn't Obama be wiping the floor with this guy? (Sure, he was up on McCain by 10 points in one Newsweek poll in June, but nobody believed it and it didn't last.)

Friday morning, NPR reported that McCain's numbers had recently ticked upward in four key battleground states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Colorado. These state-by-state numbers are really more significant than the national overall figure. After all, the fall presidential election is not a national popular vote election, not a plebiscite, but rather 50 different elections (plus the District of Columbia.)

Enter Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, she's apparently like morning sunshine.

A new Opinion Dynamics poll taken for Fox News tells the tale, but Fox buried a key finding. All they report on their website is the data showing "No Bounce For Obama from Overseas Trip," but question #3 in the poll (pdf here), shows Obama's slim lead increases substantially with her on the ticket.

The survey, taken Tuesday and Wednesday of this week among 900 registered voters, shows Obama beating McCain by a statistically meaningless 1 point in a two-way race, and 3 points if the Independent Nader and Libertarian Barr are tossed in.

However, a mythical matchup of Obama-Clinton beats a Republican ticket of McCain-Romney by a much bigger 9 points, well outside the margin of error. Opinion Dynamics polling has actually shown the same thing for three straight months; others have, too.

This suggests the tightness in the race is due to voter uncertainty on the Democratic side of the draw, and here's why:

Throughout the past year, Democrats consistently told pollsters they were happy with all of their presidential contenders, while Republicans were overwhelmingly bummed about theirs. Things have not changed, which is why repubs stay sour in polls when offered McCain-Romney, yet Obama's numbers suddenly brighten when paired with his chief rival. That's a notable finding.

He did the job on the trip abroad, looking and sounding like our next leader. It must have been heartwarming for every American to actually see U.S. flags waving proudly in the throng of 200,000 Germans in Berlin. When was the last time Europeans waved Old Glory without lighting it on fire?

The final piece to the puzzle may well be adding Clinton's solid base of women, and her populist economic message, to Obama's call for "change we can believe in." She racked up big primary wins in large states loaded with electoral votes (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.), and she and Obama finished the nominating season in a virtual tie in popular votes cast.

The solution is simple. Clinton needs to become a visible and substantive part of the Obama campaign, something that hasn't happened yet. Fact is, she controls "huge tracts of land," and Democrats don't just need them, Democrats desire them.

You never go broke giving the people what they want.

Comments

[pattyrenee]

I think that Hillary as VP nominee, would use McCain like a mop, and rid Obama of all of the bs that McCain is spewing.
Obama needs Hillary if he want to win. McCain wouldn't know what hit him. Obama is too nice to McCain. Turn loosed the Clinton machine on McCain. Yes, they could do it anyway but they need a big reason to ruin McCain.

[StephenDedalus82]

I was for Hillary because I believed the Clintons are probably the only Democrats immune from Rove-style attacks. They've already been defined, for decades. Rove wouldn't be able to define them as he wanted, as his disciples in McCain's team are now doing with the messiah complex stuff.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

No thanks,

We cannot solve today's probems using the mindset that created them. -- Albert Einstein

[Miss Mamselle Hepzibah]

Well, I don't blame the Clinton's (or their mindset) for today's problems, and I doubt old Albert does from his perch in the beyond, either!

MMH

[sharonh]

In the end it is the American electorate who will decide, no matter how popular throughout the rest of the world O is. If Ms. Clinton really was a "sour grapes" type of person, as many have suggested here, she could simply refuse O's request when he makes it. That she has already said she would take it attests to her loyalty to her party and her commitment to see demos in the WH. She is a bigger person than me--I might suggest I would be on the ticket only at the top, which is where she really should be.

[MargaretO]

I'll support Barack Obama no matter who he picks as his VP.

Fired up in Arizona!!

[aofh]

Putting Hillary on the ticket would be a mistake. She has incredible potential to overshadow the candidate. All of her and Bill's negatives prior to and since 2000 will provide the Repug attack machine ammo it doesn't now have against Obama. There could be so much negative Clinton stuff out there you'd forget that she wasn't on top of the ticket. Of course, not all of the attention she would draw would be negative, and that would also detract from him. Clinton on the ticket could lead to the kind of inertia we now see in Congress. Better to leave her quiet and off the main stage as she is now and let the attention flow to Obama.

[sharonh]

"incredible potential to overshadow the candidate. ...you'd forget she wasn't on top of the ticket. Of course, not all the attention would be negative and that would also detract from him". Don't you see what you are saying?

[libbygirl]

Obama with Hillary as VP just doesn't fit. She can accomplish much more in the Senate anyway. Why would she want to be second banana in the White House?

[nypoet22]

right or wrong, good or bad, there is a long history of close primaries being settled by a joint ticket. even (and sometimes especially) when the two candidates don't like each other, unity is a put up or shut up kind of thing. if you believe in unity, you have to go with the vp pick who will satisfy the opposing camp within the party. this year, the only pick who fits that bill (so to speak) is hillary.

[leftcoastliberal]

It's Saturday and Gallup has Obama up 7 points... "that ain't hay" as they used to say. If Obama has shown one thing, it's that he knows how to win against the odds. I'm sure his veep pick (Hillary or not) will be the right one to ensure a winning ticket.

[SusaninIN]

Stop shoving Hillary Clinton down our throats! The decision is Obamas. Once he decides his VP, then we can decide whether we will vote for him or not. And NONE of these polls matter. The only one that matters is election day.

[doctorwang]

I'm sure the 0bama camp is checking out 'these polls'.........and they will matter when he makes his choice.

[DEMOC18]

Obama should be so lucky to get Hillary to agree to be his VP. Keeptelling yourselves he doesn't need her. And then wait until November's loss.

[bendi67]

DEMOC 18..What do you mean by wait until November 's loss?Are you one of the PUMA people?I don't have anything against Hillary,but I think some of his supporters went to the deep end and there's no way I wanna be associated with those crazies. If Obama lost in November,We AMERICANS deserve the country that we got. That's all. Yes,Obama needs Hillary to win the election the same way he needs me or you.He needs her to cast her vote/ONE vote for him.

[SusaninIN]

The question isn't whether Obama needs her, but does the country need her in that position. My vote says no!

[doctorwang]

The question should be is having HRC on the ticket necessary for BO to get elected. If so, I would (regretfully) say go for it. Remember, no matter who he picks as VP, Obam@ is the one that will be the president- and the one in charge.

[MissT]

Amazing. Hillary supporter would rather scew the race to McCain than vote for Obama. Question: If McCain wins in Novermber, who is really the loser?

[BigBen]

Amazing. Obama would rather screw the race to McCain than put Hillary on the ticket.
Question; If McCain wins in November, who is really the loser?
Answer; The world, America, Obama. Hillary,not.

[Makesense]

No we don't need Hillary!

[SusaninIN]

True! Also there is the problems of Bill being vetted and Obama's 'No Drama' rule. I don't think they would pass either.

[iluvsam]

We Clinton supporters have been saying the same thing for weeks.

I personally know of 4 people who will only vote for Obama if Hillary is on the ticket. If he doesn't pick her, they will be sitting out this election. They aren't the only 4 people in the country who feel this way. I like Obama, but he has failed to bring these certain voters to his side.

[Makesense]

Hillary will not be on the ticket and it would be the right decision. It is as simple as ABC - Anybody But Clinton!

[cadbury]

What if the situation were reversed and Obama had gotten half of all votes, but fell short of what was needed to get the nomination? His supporters would be screaming for her to put him on the ticket. And rightly so! This is a no-brainer, folks.

[strength]

I was a hillary supporter during the prims., but she lost and I had to make a decision, am I a democrat, or just a hilary supporter? I made a decision, it wasnt that hard, im a democrat and not going to vote for Mccain, who is on the opposite side of all my issues i care about because Obama is leading the democratic charge rather than hillary. I mean serioulsy folks, what do you think the people decided to vote for Bush the second time feel like right now with our economy and constittution going into the crapper? If HIllary supporters arent Democarats first why vote for Hillary? If you really like the way our country is being run, then vote for Mccain, but you shouldnt have ever called yourselves hillary supporters, because she is a Democrat and so is Obama, he is the person, if you listen closely, will lead us to a better place, maybe HIllary would have done that, and i would love to see her as VP too, so dont get me wrong, i just hate hearing that "Im not voting for Obama unless HIllary is there, because i am stubborn and acting like little children" Get over it, we need to come together as democrats and turn our economy around, we need to prevent oil drilling, we need better healthcare, we need to save social securtiy, we need bettter education, we need out of Iraq, everythign Hillary stood for, and SO DOES OBAMA!

[DEMOC18]

Yep, I know more than 4 people who are doing the same thing.

[MiddleRoadLiberal]

I know more than eight who will not vote for Obama with Hillary on the ticket, so my friends cancel your guys' friends out.

[Shayrae]

Are you Hillary people deaf? Hillary is not going to be on the ticket. There is no way Obama would be that naive. Hillary is a liability to Hillary. Her negative and badly run campaign doomed her. She's lucky she wasn't tossed out of the Senate. In time, she just might be voted out. Please God, let it happen.

[blaqntelligence]

So we have iluvsam's 4.......
1Irish's 5
DEMOC18's 4......
Throw in the various diehard hrc supporters and you have, what, 20 people...?
He will put her, her drama, her baggage, and her husband on his ticket to pacify 20 people......?

Keep dreaming.

[1IrishdeAztlan]

I know 5 people who will sit out the election if Hillary is chosen as vice president, however, I'm not one of them. Although I'm not in favor of of Hillary on the ticket, I would still cast my vote for Obama.

[repearwo]

Benny Hill had a wonderful little ditty that applies here.

No Flowers,
No Trees,
No Birds,
No Bees,
No Wonder,
November.

Obama has not closed the deal becasue it is July. He is just about where he needs to be. He is still etting the American people know who he is. The "season" for closing the deal is the fall not the summer.

[JennyJay]

I am worried about the poll numbers, they make no sense, don't seem to be realistic. So I am hoping that the problem is in the polling "process". I suspect polling has not kept up with the times and is
simply decadent and outdated, not reflecting reality. If they poll on land lines only, then the whole
process IS A JOKE and meaningless.

[jfor]

If you are a Republican it must be very difficult to support the hypocrisies and outright lies of your political leadershp over the last twenty five years. With each new election those elected who promised to be Republicans have taken their party and this country in a direction that has stunted the intellectual growth of the country at large, focused more wealth into the hands of the wealthy, allowed Christian religious beliefs to be weaved into our government, encouraged the selfish raping of our environment by our largest corporations, physically enlarged the bureaucracies of our government, expanded the role of law enforcement, reduced the amount of freedoms enjoyed by all, and ultimately made it significantly harder for the average American to live a nice, healthy life.

John McCain is a part of the decline of the Republican party, his tenure in DC covers the same time period of this erosion of basic principles that make us all American no matter what we believe. He is part of the reason this once great party is now a bunch of old white men who are fearful of the secret powers of the vagina, fearful of islam, fearful of immigrants, fearful of science, fearful of change and fearful of an intelliegent and educated electorate.

A vote for McCain will continue to promote the decline of America but it will be hard to notice with all the lapel pins, flag waving, hands over your heart and god blessing everything going on.