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After Tuesday's drubbing, Democrats will search for the hidden message of the election. But the message isn't hidden: The decisive blocs of voters that switched from Democrats in 2008 to Republicans in 2010 were angry and disillusioned -- with the economy, with a political system they see as helping banks and CEOs, not ordinary working families, and with both parties, Republicans (exit-poll favorability rating: 41 percent) as well as Democrats (43 percent). They want action to rebalance the economy so it produces jobs and gains for the middle class, not just Wall Street. Unfortunately, they're not going to get it.

That's because these voters have just handed Congress back to a party least likely to heed their call: the party that spent the last two years saying no to Wall Street reform, to an economic recovery package that included major tax cuts, to expanded health insurance and medical cost control, and to extension of the 2001 tax cuts for the middle class; the party that shamelessly courted lobbyists and corporate donors while claiming they were only against reform because it represented a "bailout" of these very same interests.

In exit polls, voters were asked who they blamed for the state of the economy. In order, they blamed banks, then the Bush administration, and only then the current administration. Yet those who blamed banks gave their votes by a wide margin to the GOP. Their votes have made Speaker-to-be John Boehner the second most powerful person in Washington only months after he staged an open rally for bank lobbyists, urging them to block Democrats and their "punk staffers." The rally worked: Wall Street swung toward the Republicans, joining health insurers, big business groups, energy companies, and the rest of the GOP's new money trust.

Midterm election losses are a virtual inevitability for the party of the president. A terrible economy makes them more certain -- and larger. The only thing that would have saved Democrats from big losses this time around was a huge organizational and fundraising edge. Thanks to the Tea Party and billions in outside campaign spending that favored the GOP, the edge was Republicans'.

If there is a hidden message in the election, it's one that we, in our recent book, Winner-Take-All Politics, call the "dirty little secret" of political science: most voters pay little attention to what happens in Washington and have only the vaguest sense of what is happening there. Most are completely unaware of how the filibuster has been used relentlessly to block action on the economy, and a majority mistakenly believes that the astonishingly unpopular TARP legislation passed under Obama, when in fact in was signed by George W. Bush.

We are taught to believe that voters call the shots. And they often do. Yet the vote is a blunt, heavy weapon -- one that voters barraged with negative ads and misleading messages, without strong guidance from grassroots organizations, often wield with little awareness of or regard for the collateral damage that will result. In this case, the damage is likely to be the crippling of goals and policies that most Americans continue to support.

One salient example sums up the whole: Republicans' big gains came with older voters -- in part because they were frightened by GOP attacks on the health care bill. Yet Republican budget blueprints -- from Paul Ryan's "Roadmap for America's Future" to the GOP "Pledge to America" -- mean even bigger cuts in Medicare and the revival of the GOP's mothballed plans for partial privatization of Social Security and Medicare. Ask older Americans whether they would like to trash their cherished programs in return for massive new tax cuts for the richest of the rich, and the answer will be a resounding no. Only on election day, a strong majority of older Americans, in effect, said yes.

In John Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath, perhaps the most memorable line was uttered by an angry farmer about to lose his home (sound familiar?). Enraged and despairing but unable to pinpoint blame for his terrible loss, he asks, "Who can we shoot?" That's what voters were asking in 2010, and most had no clearer idea than the farmer of where responsibility for their plight lay.

The 2010 election was the political equivalent of the perfect crime: The GOP vigorously took on all reforms designed to rebalance the economy for the long term, tying Washington up in contorted knots, then were rewarded at the polls by voters dissatisfied with an ugly D.C. culture unable to produce economic renewal.

Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson are the authors of Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer--And Turned Its Back on the Middle Class

 
After Tuesday's drubbing, Democrats will search for the hidden message of the election. But the message isn't hidden: The decisive blocs of voters that switched from Democrats in 2008 to Republicans i...
After Tuesday's drubbing, Democrats will search for the hidden message of the election. But the message isn't hidden: The decisive blocs of voters that switched from Democrats in 2008 to Republicans i...
 
 
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11:30 AM on 11/08/2010
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The Republicans have admitted their mistakes of the last 8 yeras and have promised to be more responsive and responsible.

The Dems have NOT EVEN ADMITTED their mistakes of the LAST TWO YEARS!!!
07:41 AM on 11/08/2010
In the same way that conservatives concluded that G.W. was no conservative and admitted the Tea Party to its ranks, Democrats must engage the same kind of soul searching, stop self-deluding and end blaming the current mess on Bush and the GOP. Frank/Dodd/Clinton got in bed with FannieMae and the mortgage industry, built the real estate bubble that triggered the recession and the backlash was against $14 trillion in deficits and obsession with a health care plan of terrible architecture and cost, all to the exclusion of the economy.

The "in group" mocking of voters is also counterproductive.

In the same way that the GOP Congress under Clinton blew their opportunity, so too did Democrats and liberals under Obama, including Obama himself.

Any other conclusion is self-delusion.
01:55 AM on 11/08/2010
Liberals: "It's the Republicans fault!" myth you guys are spewing across the countryside is complete BS. Americans SHOULD know, but they most certainly don't, that all spending bills originate in the House. Keeping this fact in mind, the Democrats have been the majority in Congress since January of 2007. That means that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have been pulling the purse strings since 2007. But it is all Bush's fault!

Take a look at these figures from the Wall Street Journal:
• When the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, the debt held by the public was 36.2% of GDP. It rose to 40.2% the next year. This year it will be about 63.6%, next year 68.6%, then 77% of GDP in 2020. And the Obama administration's budget estimates 218% in 2050.

The deficit in 2007 was $160 billion. In the next year the Pelosi-Reid Congress took it up to $458 billion, and when President Obama came into office in 2009 it hit $1.4 trillion. The current 2010 projected deficit is $1.6 trillion, which will lead to a tripling of our national debt from 2008 to 2020.
Now when it comes to budgets proposed by presidents ...

If Obama had simply kept Bush's spending policies in place, federal deficits over the next eight years would be 60 percent lower. In 2018, we'd have a deficit of just $188 billion, instead of the projected $996 billion under Obama's budget.
01:16 AM on 11/08/2010
You're absolutey right about giving the keys back to the people who crashed the car. That awful Barney Frank and Harry Reid should have been turned out on their ears.

Seriously, guys, trying to sell your book and your thesis to progressives who want to be comforted in this time of defeat is understandable, but it's hardly a recipe for critical analysis. Progressives must face that their ideas failed to produce the desired and promised results and instead produced a resounding election defeat. I'm not going to gloat because it's unseemly and adolescent -- and too reminiscent of the arrogance that wound up dooming Democrats. But if you keep insisting the Republicans caused all the problems, and the dumb voters don't recognize and appreciate all the great things the ill-fated Obama-Pelosi-Reid machine churned out for them, you're not going to win backs many hearts and minds.
12:28 AM on 11/08/2010
Can we be honest? Health Care Reform was unpopular.
09:33 PM on 11/07/2010
The Democrats have controlled Congress for 4 years, and the entire Government for 2 years yet we have 9.6% UNEMPLOYMENT, trillions upon trillions in corrupt spending, and a Mountain of debt that could bring down the entire nation! If the Republicans got the car into the ditch the Democrats, with Obama and Nancy Pelosi in the lead, climbed into the car, hit the gas, and drove it halfway to China. What is worse is they didn't even pretend to focus on jobs! All they cared about was passing their extreme left wing agenda! Unfortunately, Obama and Harry Reid still have the keys to the car. They control the White House and the Senate. It will be interesting to see if the Republicans can work around them to stop the decline of our nation?
07:06 PM on 11/07/2010
Interesting to read the liberal/progressive/leftwing/socialists view of the last election meant! They are agreeing, sort of, with Obama's views. Obviously they are absolutelly wrong. First, the congress was in the Democrats hands for the last 4 years. During this time, in 2008, we had Bush's worst yearly deficit of about 420B. Yes, with a Democrat Congress handling the budget, we had a 2008 deficit of 420B. That was bad. Now, for the last 2 years, about a couple weeks ago, the deficit was reported to have reached over 3T, which places the average yearly deficit at over 1.5T, In other words, a Democratic Congress with a GOP President was bad. A Democrat Congress plus a Democrat WH, is close to 4 times worst! That is the message of the election.
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06:55 PM on 11/07/2010
To make it further ironic that Bush II was a blundering, bi-partisan on domestic (including economic policy) moderate that pursued a soft dollar,excess credit culture wholly supported in leftist dogma. Not too mention the excess governmental spending and regulatory expansions. So you continue to live in this phony Orwellian Double Think to what really went on or is happening today.
05:26 PM on 11/07/2010
Unemployment at 18%+ (In the real world) $5 Trillion spent in the past 2+ years (Couple of trillion spent by Fed and they won't say where) and Americans decided that Obama and his merry band of socialists need to be grounded.

Of course its time to turn the keys over to some adults.....
07:42 PM on 11/07/2010
Great point PerryM, and we have to look more to Tea Party individuals whose basic priorities are: small government, cut spending, lower taxes, protect individual liberties. Did you know that the average salary of government employees is $120,000.00? And private sector employess average salary is $60,000.00? Now we understand why we did not have an even bigger wave on the last election. The public employee's union spent a lot of cash to keep government as big as it is. The deficit is not because of tax cuts, it is because of excessive spending. Like someone said, we can live with 2.4T government size, what WE CAN'T LIVE WITH is a 4.0T size government.
09:44 AM on 11/11/2010
Hi FanDaElis,

It would really help if you could share where you got that government employee "average" salary number.

Also, do you mean local or municipal government, county, state, AND federal government employees in that number? You're probably most interested in federal gov. employees, though. Any idea how many people are employed by the federal government?

Thanks,
Michael
10:43 AM on 11/11/2010
Hi FanDaElis,

I went and did a little research.

According to USA today, "The federal government spent about $224 billion in 2008 on compensation for about 2 million civilian employees."

224,000,000,000 / 2,000,000 = $112,000 per employee

It's important to note, however, that "These salary figures do not include the value of health, pension and other benefits, which averaged $40,785 per federal employee in 2008." That brings the 112,000 number down below $72,000 per employee.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm

So your 120K number for avg. federal employee actual salary (straight payroll) is overcooked by $48,000.
05:07 PM on 11/07/2010
"Voters are scared." "They're not very bright." "It's Bush's fault." The party in power always loses seats" "it wasn't that we spent too much - We needed to spend more." "Voters will like HCR once it's passed." Right.

Did Hacker and Pierson not hear the warnings of a backlash if they imposed their unpopular version of health care reform? What part of "governing against the will of the people" did they not understand?

George Will put it best, "It is amazing the ingenuity Democrats invest in concocting explanations of voter behavior that erase what voters always care about, and this year more than ever - ideas. This election was a nationwide recoil against Barack Obama's idea of unlimited government."

Don't think Will is right? Fine. We vote again soon enough.
06:42 PM on 11/07/2010
Great comment!
04:51 PM on 11/07/2010
Today's Republicans are NOT the Bush Administration. The TEA Party people are much more anti-Corporate.
08:00 PM on 11/07/2010
I concur. While I like George Bush personally, the Republicans did a horrendous job while they were in total control ... not as bad as the Democrats the past two years ... but pretty darn bad.
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04:45 PM on 11/07/2010
Gee, I thought it was Obama who gave the keys to the guys who caused the problem, i.e. Summers and Geithner.
09:47 AM on 11/06/2010
Like Philclock, many Americans believe that by voting GOP, they're handing the keys back to the people. The GOP have been saying all through this election season that the Democrats are not "listening to the people". Those who have heard this message feel that Obama's administration has neglected their bottom line--jobs, homes--for progressive (a four-letter word, in their estimation) pet projects to save the environment and expand healthcare.

After 2 short years (following 10 years of GOP Bush policies), many Americans are backing the GOP because they want those jobs and to be able to afford their homes. And they're willing to let the GOP and their corporate cronies run the show again just to get them, ignoring the damage they have done in the past and forfeiting progress in the future that would make America a great country again.

The big oil interests and insurance companies (which have sat on billions of dollars of low-interest loans that could have meant fewer layoffs) are behind this GOP plan all the way. They don't want Obamacare or investing in wind and solar power. And as long as big corporate bucks and the GOP can stand in the way of "stupid progressive projects", the American people, like Philcock, are going to get what they deserve.
07:53 PM on 11/07/2010
JoyAq, you are one more clueless individual. Let us go over again: the Democrats have had the power over Congress for the last 4 years. In 2008 (the second year of Democrats holding the power over Congress) they passed a budget which resulted in Bush's administration worst deficit: around 420B. Since Obama was elected (and he was part of the 2008/2009 Democratic majority Congress), ABC reporated a couple of weeks ago, the 2 years deficit reached over 3T, that is an average of over 1.5T a year. Well, if the GOP congress was a "bad driver," the Democratic congress aided by a Democratic WH, have become a "driver" that has caused crashes over and over again.
05:54 PM on 11/05/2010
WRONG!

Nov. 2 elections: give the keys back to we the people, who can re-distribute them to people who will actually represent their interests to the government, rather than the other way around.
05:32 PM on 11/05/2010
"...They (sic: voters) want action to rebalance the economy so it produces jobs and gains for the middle class, not just Wall Street. Unfortunately, they're not going to get it."

Voters aren't dumb, Demo-rats had their shot with super-majorities in House and Senate, and WASTED THEIR TIME EXPANDING GOVERNMENT INTO HEALTH CARE, FINANCE AND ENERGY, instead of facilitating an economic rebound of the engine that drives ANY economy, the efforts and incentive of we the people, NOT we the "progressive" panels of self-anointed experts here to make decisions for everybody else!!

Of course, the reality of people wanting to run their own lives never sinks into the "progressive" cult, it and Nancy Pelosi will emerge again, with yet another face lift, spewing the same old crud: big government solutions for "fairness", "social justice" and the collective.