Taliban: If You Can't Beat Them, Buy Them!

The story the New York Times published this week on Hamid Karzai's drug-dealing brother Ahmed Wali and his ties to the CIA is very revealing, considering it comes just few days before Afghanistan's run-off election; however, it is not the real news. It has been rumored for years that Wali has been involved in opium trafficking and has been receiving payments from the CIA. The big story is the United States' government plan to buy out the Taliban -- officially, so to speak.

On Wednesday, President Obama signed a $680 billion defense appropriations bill, which is supposed to cover military operations in the 2010 fiscal year. The bill includes a Taliban reintegration provision under the Commander's Emergency Response Program. Don't you love the terminologies used by government bureaucrats? Call it buyout, bribes, protection money, but please don't call it integration.

The idea, according to Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is to separate local Taliban from their leaders, replicating a program used to neutralize the insurgency against Americans in Iraq. If you can't beat them, buy them!

Afghanistan though, is not Iraq. Unlike al-Sahwa in Iraq (the Sunni Awakening), when Iraqi tribe members took up arms against al-Qaeda and foreign insurgents, the Taliban are an integral part of Afghanistan, and they are not foreign fighters. They are the brothers, cousins and neighbors of ordinary Afghans. The US government might be able to temporarily buy out some Taliban members from attacking its troops but it will not be able to buy loyalties.

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on President Obama to authorize the sending of more troops to Afghanistan. According to a recent Associated Press report:

There are already more than 100,000 international troops in Afghanistan working with 200,000 Afghan security forces and police. It adds up to a 12-to-1 numerical advantage over Taliban rebels, but it hasn't led to anything close to victory.

The Taliban rebels are estimated to number no more than 25,000 according to the same report. Yet, we have witnessed their devastating attacks in Kabul and other areas. The number of American deaths in Afghanistan has reached a record for the third time in four months. Some military experts say that an increase in US troops is no guarantee to reduce US fatalities and that it might only work in a negative way. The US army is not equipped to fight guerrilla warfare.

The new US strategies to be implemented in Afghanistan are nothing new; they are basically a redux of Iraqi ones. Their success rates are both short term, with the surge in Iraq only working temporarily, as the recent attacks in the country show. Paying for protection can only work against foreign insurgents and will only work as long as you keep paying.

In the meantime, on the news, I keep watching those who are gung-ho for sending more troops to Afghanistan insist that the U.S. has learned from the Soviets' mistakes. No one asks if it has learned anything from its mistakes in Iraq.

 

Follow Jamal Dajani on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jamaldajani

Comments

[DAE]

There are 32 million Afghans. We spend more than 32 billion a year there. That's $1000/Afghan, man, woman and child. Per capita GDP in Afghanistan is about $700. That's not per capita monetary income which is most likely half that. Say each Afghan family has 10 members (extended family). They probably eke out a living on little more than $1000 per year. If we gave that family and all other such families a lump sum $10,000 payment, economic activity in Afghanistan would sky rocket. The Afghans would be able to spend their own money wisely and reconstruct their own country as they see fit. This will end corruption, make the Taqliban irrelevant and save us lives and money even in the short term. But it makes too much sense to be considered by "the best and the brightest."

[ralphlopez]

"The Taliban are an integral part of Afghanistan, and they are not foreign fighters. They are the brothers, cousins and neighbors of ordinary Afghans. "

Absolutely untrue, betraying a misunderstanding of the Taliban. The Taliban originated in the madrassas in Pakistan, funded by the ISI (and the CIA) They were able to shoot their way into power when the US abandoned the country after the Russians left. Most Afghans hate the Taliban, as it was a foreign-sponsored political minority which ruled by force and fear, for example the mutilations in the National Stadium. This article neglects, as do most, that there are starvation conditions and the Taliban pays $8 a day to young fighters who would rather do something else. I would prefer this kind of "reintegration" be separated from the military mission, but as war-fighting goes it's not a bad idea. Troops out, basic public works projects at $7 a day wage in, and your Taliban problem disappears.

In the Seventies women were wearing mini-skirts in Kabul. This is not an indigenous movement, and is growing only because it can pay fighters through the opium trade.

Troop escalation is a terrible idea because it fans the flames. Afghans want nothing more than to live normal lives, be able to feed their families, build their own country, and be left alone by all sides. This is what I saw when I was in Afghanistan this summer.

Ralph Lopez
Afghan Marshall Plan Exit Strategy
http://jobsforafghans.org

[newsjunkie5]

I don't know why would anyone think that any population would want to welcome an occupying power with open arms. Would Americans be happy if Mexico placed a 100,000 troops on its soil?

[leonardox1]

That's because we don't think of the US as a colonial power. We invade countries then we give them financial aid.

[alexa07]

"The US army is not equipped to fight guerrilla warfare."
No amount of money or bribes for "integration" purposes will change this. Since ancient times occupied peoples must have learned & relearned many times the lessons of how to fight effectively without a large, standing army. You take away your enemy's advantages & turn them into disadvantages. What is amazing is that the current military leaders & now the Obama people think their experience in Afghanistan will be different.

[Durango]

What is that old cowboy saying: there's never been a horse that hasn't been rode.

And there has never been a rider who hasn't been throwed.

People do learn from past experience. And there are some very bright people in the military and the Obama Administration.

It is not a question of if they clean up the mess from the Bushistas, But how.

[Durango]

i am completely unconvinced by the reasoning here.

The Iraqi insurgency was less home based than Afghanistan? Then why have we heard about Chechens and Arabs arriving to help the Taliban? Not to mention the Madrassa students from Pakistan.

What we are calling the "Taliban" is a diverse group of religious, tribal and mercenary fighters. And drug growers and smugglers as well.

And if a study of Afghan history is any indication, to say the loyalties of Afghans is "fluid" is understating the facts considerably.

If there was ever any insurgency susceptible to being bought out it would be the Afghans.

But ultimately there will be no military solution. Only a political solution.

And paying off your enemy is always a good idea.

[leonardox1]

Very few Arabs and Chechens are fighting with the Taliban who mostly remained after the US invasion. The madrassa students you're talking about are Pakistani Taliban

[Durango]

Right, Pakistani students. Not Afghans.

The Taliban has always relied on foreign support.

[jad114]

Afghanistan is know as the “graveyard of empires” — Can President Obama succeed where the Russians, the Brits, Genghis Khan, and Alexander the Great have failed?

[Durango]

Ghengis Khan devastated what is now Afghanistan.

Get your history straight, there is way too much misinformation floating around out there.

"In lightening speed Ghengis khan invaded Bukhara to avenge the looting of his caravan. Ghengis Khan defeated Khawrazn Shah (1219) and turned towards Afghanistan sparing nothing and no one in his path. Herat and bamyan suffered the brunt of this invasion."

Alexander the Great also conquered Afghanistan.

This is obviously misinformation. Just because it gets repeated does not make it true.

[jamiso]

The lesson is...anyone can invade AStan...just not remodel it

[joz22]

Obama is a very smart man. He knows that the economy and health care are the most important two things for Americans right now. Afghanistan is not a US problem...I hope he gets it.

[cohen238765]

I think that he gets it that's why he is not rushing his decision...I hope.

[MosheDayanHero]

"Afghanistan though, is not Iraq. Unlike al-Sahwa in Iraq (the Sunni Awakening), when Iraqi tribe members took up arms against al-Qaeda and foreign insurgents, the Taliban are an integral part of Afghanistan>"

Hmm, It seemed to slip author's mind that Taliban was defeated largely by Afghans themselves.

[joz22]

Taliban defeated? Then why are we sending troops there?

[justice2008]

They also have said that the surge had succeeded in Iraq. The violence in Iraq, and Afghanistan is more than ever.

[MosheDayanHero]

Wrong. Violence in Iraq subsided. And that war was won by the alliance between Sunni and U.S. troops bolstered by the surge and extremely astute strategy by General Petraeus.
Of course this is difficult to accept for those who protested against Petraeus doctrine. Happily for U.S. and the world, the smarter people prevailed.

[cohen238765]

Taliban can't be defeated if drug money continues.

[leonardox1]

No Mr. Dajani. We have not learned from our mistakes, not from Iraq and neither from Vietnam.

[CigarGod]

This works...as long as the pay continues, as long as the other guys doesn't outbid you and as long as you really bought the loyalty....oops!

As Rumsfeld said: There are a lot of unknown knowns, unknown unknows...but I think we can win because we know most of the known unknowns (okay, I fudged a bit).

hmmmm....better keep your body armour close.

[justice2008]

The CIA has a long history of putting on the payroll shady characters like Karzai's brother, assassins and drug dealers.