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Jamal Dajani

Jamal Dajani

Posted: June 11, 2010 10:01 AM

Why Turkey Is Looking East

What's Your Reaction:

First came the clash at Davos in January 2009, when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked off the stage after an angry exchange with the Israeli president, Shimon Peres during a panel discussion on Gaza at the World Economic Forum. Then came the surprise uranium deal with Tehran, undermining Western pressure on Iran to come clean about its nuclear program, followed by the Israeli assault on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, which sailed under Turkish flags, sending shockwaves throughout the world. Most recently, Turkey and Brazil have become the only countries that voted against UN sanctions to impede Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons capabilities.

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There was a time when Turkey had looked west and never looked back. Some say that the drift began in 2002, when the Justice and Development Party (AKP), rooted in the country's Islamist movement, came to power. But others, like the US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, lay the blame for Turkey's increasing independence squarely on European states opposed to Turkey's EU accession process, which has ground to an almost complete halt since it kicked off in 2005.

"I personally think that if there is anything to the notion that Turkey is, if you will, moving eastward, it is, in my view, in no small part because it was pushed, and pushed by some in Europe refusing to give Turkey the kind of organic link to the West that Turkey sought," he said.

This assessment has merits; the reality is that some EU member states - notably France, Germany and Austria - have become openly hostile to Turkish membership in recent years. France's President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, have stated that they would prefer Turkey to be granted what they call a 'privileged partnership' with the EU, instead of full membership. This came as a shock and an insult to the Turkish government and people, who had witnessed Eastern European countries, once hostile to the West ascend to the EU.

But why shouldn't Turkey look east?

Trade between Turkey and all 22 members of the Arab League has more than doubled over the past five years to just under $30 billion a year, still a fraction of its trade with the EU. However, since the recent global economic downturn, coupled with the collapse of the Euro, Turkish economists have been urging the government to expand its trade with the Middle East and the Far East.

Turkey recently signed a deal with Arab neighbors Syria, Jordan and Lebanon to establish a cooperation council to create a zone of free movement of goods and people. Although the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the deal should not be seen as an alternative to the European Union, he invited all other interested countries to join.

In addition, with Turkey having no energy resources of its own, Iran is its second biggest source of energy imports after Russia, supplying roughly one-third of Turkey's total natural gas consumption last year, 10 billion cubic meters.

The West's loss of Turkey has frightening strategic consequences, as was evident in Turkey's stance on Iran. Its stance against Israel has also embarrassed U.S.-allied Arab states such as Egypt, which have shied away from confronting Israel despite popular demands to do so. Since his Justice and Development party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Erdogan has been accused by his detractors that he is trying to reclaim the former "grandeur" of Turkey's Ottoman Empire era. Did he succeed?

Perhaps not, but in Egypt, a reader of al-Masry al-Youm newspaper dubbed Erdogan as the "Caliph of the Muslims" in comments posted on its website, and his namesake is now popular with newborns in Gaza.

 
 
 

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Chopin
Multiply the truth. Speak truth through power.
04:39 PM on 06/14/2010
Many commenters seem to fall into trap of "Bushism" -- you're either with us or against us. That worldview is obsolete. It focusses almost exclusively on strategic + religious issues. Global community is more complex, more dynamic and more fluid than that simplistic worldview. I wonder why nobody else picked up on the one positive development described in this blog that's the same fundamental basis for the EU community -- economic common market for free movement of goods, services and people, then eventually political union. If EU rejects Turkey, it's their loss. Formation of common market in MiddleEast is good for all nations in that region. It might start with Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Eventually it would expand. Commercial + trade unions generate prosperity, creating network of common interests that spill over into political harmony, and ultimately into religious tolerance and world peace based on justice and mutual respect of all.

Brazil is setting positive example of breaking out of the confining role in the regional community of Latin American nations. Its role in contributing to creation of non-polar global community should be celebrated instead of feared. The world has been making transition from bipolar CONFRONTATIONAL world to multipolar COLLABORATIVE world. It's evolving towards nonpolar world of NETWORKING nations and peoples. All of us commenters are NETWORKING. Unfortunately, many people and nations are still morbidly stuck in retarded bipolar worldview -- my nation, race, religion . . . against theirs. There's no future in that worldview.
02:42 AM on 06/14/2010
After reading some Turkish newspapers, it seems to me one things will happen soon:
Turkey will cut the ties (ALL) with Israel
03:00 AM on 06/14/2010
ups... wanted to say TWO THINGS (the second one was **** "Explicit Language")
05:24 AM on 06/14/2010
Let's hope so. I'm sick and tired of seeing Israel continually pulling stunts and getting away without any consequences. I am surprised that the governments of all the countries who had identities stolen by the Israelis rolling over and letting them get away with it. No doubt this had do do with arm twisting by the US.
06:25 AM on 06/14/2010
I say Bravo Turkey . . . and yes, duxguts . . I think you are right about US armtwisting . . now it is time for Americans to armtwist our government to dumb israel . . . for far too long america has been complicit in israel's crimes . . . Obama's response to the massacre on the Mavi Marmara was shameful
11:26 PM on 06/13/2010
Turkey is about to enter the Pakistani political model of military rule alternating with preposterously incompetent civilian rule.
10:29 PM on 06/13/2010
More like NATO loses turkey's air bases.
02:21 AM on 06/14/2010
Not very likely. More likely current government will lose its power to a military coup. When the military leaders will be fed up with this nonsesne.
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slogward
02:30 PM on 06/13/2010
This is a great and lucid piece, devoid of pc nonsense.
'The West's loss of Turkey has frightening strategic consequences, as was evident in Turkey's stance on Iran'. Right on the money.

http://nbyslog.blogspot.com/2010/06/flotilla-exclusive-malva-marmara-was.html
02:58 PM on 06/13/2010
But did the west lose Turkey? As if the west even had Turkey to lose?

The forces keeping Turkey anchored in the east were there all along. Islam is at odds with secular progressive western thought.
02:25 AM on 06/14/2010
"...at odds with secular progressive western thought"

Like Likud and Kadima in Israel are secular and progressive western thoughts or maybe like Republicans (aka f.as.chi.sts) in the US of A or maybe CDU/CSU (Christian Social/Democratic Union) in Germany !!
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03:41 AM on 06/14/2010
Yes, the west lost Turkey. Specifically, the behinds-the-scenes French and German vetoes of Turkey an EU member lost Turkey. It's a nation that has been a world power for most of its existance, a history that dates back to the Roman empire and beyond. Turkey is once again on the rise, and finds the EU's cold shoulder grossly insulting, as any nation in their position would.
02:26 PM on 06/13/2010
Erdogen was a Davos and called far left passavist Shimon Perez a "killer." This was for consumption by the Turkish population who hate his government. Erdogen is doing what so many other ineffective demogogic leaders do----they blame the Jews. Its what Hitler did, its what Breznev did and what Amadenijadd does now. We did not lose Turkey, it lost itself.
12:45 PM on 06/13/2010
This is bound to happen in a strong democracy. A strong democracy will look for its own interest rather than the interests of its masters because government in that democracy would have no option. The interesting thing is that Europe will need Turkey more than Turkey will need Europe in coming decades because of changing demographic and economic scenarios.

This would have been great opportunity by Europe to take Turkey under its fold and cut it completely from Islamic world, but I think they have failed to realize that.

A dictatorship like Egypt can afford to follow USA because it doesn't have the pressure that a government in democracy can face.
01:19 PM on 06/13/2010
We have to acknowledge that there is a huge gap between western secular progressive ideals, and islam. I don't believe secular islam exists.
02:27 AM on 06/14/2010
I guess you have a PhD in that field, do you ??
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peterbeagle
a serpent's tooth
10:59 AM on 06/14/2010
you might want to read up on Attaturk.
12:38 PM on 06/13/2010
This is a very complicated issue, with roots in the Ottoman era. It appears that the donmeh, which have dominated the Turkish military, are losing power. Ergodan has uncovered multiple plots by senior Turkish military donmeh to overthrow him. He has been able to interrupt these plots so far. While Turkey anchoring the southern flank of NATO, as it has done for many decades, is of less importance with the dissolution of the Soviet empire, Turkey still occupies a strategic position, both goegraphically and politically. One would think the EU and the USA would be more supportive of Turkey and its current leader.
11:53 AM on 06/13/2010
Turkey has a shameful history.
08:12 PM on 06/13/2010
who does not?
06:26 AM on 06/14/2010
well said Red Carrot fanned
06:27 AM on 06/14/2010
and israel doesn't hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
10:53 AM on 06/13/2010
When are you going to call for Turkey to stop its occupation of Cyprus, and for a homeland for the Kurds? Don't you recall Turkish slaughter of a million and a half Armenians Don't you see the Erdgone ultra islamist that arrested his military chiefs to keep minority power with the islamists? Why is Jordan ruled by a tiny ethnic minority that refuses to take in Palestinian refugees?

Why the double standard in regards to the Israelis?t.

Tell your bull to the Greeks.
12:41 PM on 06/13/2010
Ergodan had these military men arrested to stop a COUP.
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01:26 PM on 06/13/2010
I think Turkey needs to answer a lot of questions within their own country before being admitting into NATO..they need to answer why 180,000 Turks are settlers in Northern Cyprus, which expelled over 300,000 greek cypriots during the 1974 war. They need to answer why 3,000 Kurdish villages have been destroyed in the past few years. If they can't come to grips with the way a past govt of the Ottomans dealt with Armenians, its hard to take a humanitarian gesture seriously. Now i understand the importance of Turkey geographically and strategically, but its not going to lose the U.S much sleep if Turkey continues its orbit easteward..as we have bases in the Gulf, Afghanistan and now Iraq.
08:14 PM on 06/13/2010
You do not know what you are talking about.
06:52 AM on 06/13/2010
why shouldn't turkey look east?
Because western values are much more fun then islamic binds. so the french are snobs. who cares. you know what's worse then snobs? Achmadenajad... and his quest for ww3.
11:52 AM on 06/13/2010
excellent post
03:57 AM on 06/13/2010
Looking eastwards is better for Turkey than trying to join the EU. In the EU, it is inlikely that Turkey would have had a voice that counts. In Asia, the power of the Arabs and in particular, the powers of Russia and China are rising.
01:50 PM on 06/13/2010
If it joined, it would have a voice. I don't see it joining if there is any hint of 'islam' tainted government.

China is definitely rising. Russia is thriving (relatively) on raw material exports. China is already bursting at the seams and will soon be butting heads with Russia. Its expats already dominate many areas of siberia. Turkey can prosper by playing both sides in that conflict and hopefully pick up scraps on the coat tails of EU.

Its role isn't pivotal in the east or the west.
03:05 AM on 06/13/2010
Why Turkey Is Looking East?
Because Turkish con to convince Europeans they belong in EU didn't work.
02:10 PM on 06/13/2010
...and yet, the EU and US STILL need Turkey badly for their energy geostrategies, not least of which involve pipeline routes into Europe. Can you say "rock and a hard place"?
06:28 AM on 06/14/2010
nay not so . . . William Hague is pushing for Turkey to become a member of the EU . . .and Turkey is in NATO . . . Turkey is the bridge between East and West . . .

has israel been trying to usurp Turkey . . .well it won't work
11:48 PM on 06/12/2010
Turkey is to be commended for not joining the coalition of the willing (bribed) by turning down the US offer of $30 billion to allow access to Iraq from the north.
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01:29 PM on 06/13/2010
Should their govt be commended for the present dealings with the native Kurds in southeast Turkey? How about taking advantage of U.S support, by bombing PKK positions in northern Iraq? They aren't the lovely humanitarians they are trying to tell the world they are now. The Turkish govt has their own dirty secrets or not so secrets when it coms to ethnic minorities within their borders.
04:23 PM on 06/13/2010
No, and I don't mean to imply that Turkey is without fault. But at least in the Iraq invasion question they did the right thing, in my opinion, while other nations took the money and ran. Of course. Turkey does have it's dirty little secrets and dirty little lies. Most governments do, the US and Israel being no exception.
10:05 PM on 06/12/2010
Turkey knows that we will throw them under the bus if it comes to a choice between them and Israel so I can't really blame them for looking east. We have only been using them for years because of their location and airstrips.
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01:31 PM on 06/13/2010
You are acting like its One or the other when it comes to who the U.S can be allies with.. Turkey knows the US will still support Israel..they aren't going to hold that against the U.S when it comes to their strategic relationships...They could care less about the Palestinian issue, but they will take advantage of it for their own benefit, even if their present govt has a shameful record when it comes to minorities, especially Kurds..that make what happened in Gaza look like nothing.
01:51 PM on 06/13/2010
What bus?
12:40 AM on 06/14/2010
The AIPAC bus.