State Of The Race: Hillary, Richardson, Gore And The Housing Collapse

Last December, I was doing MSNBC and everyone was asking about the 2008 race and my answer always started, "it's so early." Well, time passes and now it's not so early anymore. Our top candidates have been on the road and especially spending time in Iowa and New Hampshire. Tens of millions of dollars have been raised and now, everyone is on air in Iowa -- clearly timing has changed.

Let me set this one clear pre-amble. I am not working with, for or against anyone right now in terms of the nomination. I am calling it as I see it. I have friends, good friends, on the Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Dodd and Richardson campaigns. I respect all our candidates and strongly, STRONGLY, believe that each and every one of them are far, far better than anyone from the Republican side.

Having said that, let the muttering begin.

HILLARY

Barring a last minute entrance from Al Gore (more on that below), Senator Clinton is more than poised to be the nominee. In fact, smart money is already looking for how they can help her win in 2008.

Simply put, every national poll and now every state poll favors her. There is no evidence to the contrary. She has a top notch campaign staff and while every candidate will stumble here and there, and she has had a couple of rough moments, Simply put, every national poll and now every state poll favors her. There is no evidence to the contrary
From the best online team, the best communications team, the single best fundraiser the Democratic Party has ever seen, top to bottom she has the staff to help her through any rough spots.

Can she win the general? Absolutely.

If I was a Clinton supporter and donor, I would be looking to help the women at Women's Voices. Women Vote. Maximizing that underperforming segment will help Senator Clinton a great deal.

RICHARDSON

The state poll most recently out of Iowa shows me three things.

I like John Edwards personally and politically, but there is something missing this time around. He is rolling the dice on Iowa and as more and more people go on air there, he is losing ground not gaining it. I think the campaign is well run by smart people but maybe he has been too front and center for too long, but I see a continued fade there.

I also like Barack Obama and he has some great people working for him. But both nationally and in states where he is focusing, I don't see any upward momentum. Same with Christopher Dodd.

However, Richardson is the only one who is moving up where he is focusing time. He has some, modest momentum. If he finished a strong second in Iowa, he would have some momentum. Will he ever overtake Hillary? That's a long shot but if I was going to pick a horse other than Hillary, I would be picking Bill Richardson.

GORE

Last month, I wrote two pieces about Al Gore.

The continued silence says to me, he's not running. I have tried, others have tried and while the DraftGore movement organizers are to be commended for their efforts, the only one who can draft Al Gore is Al Gore.

We're down to the count on a potential Gore run and while I have been the most optimistic of my crowd, I expect him to pass.

THE HOUSING QUAGMIRE

The pain from the collapse of the housing market will be deep, pronounced and should be laid completely at the feet of the Republicans. Prices for housing will drop, I believe, an additional 20-30% from where they are now, more in the big bubble markets (Miami, Vegas, etc.)

The problem will be is that this 'collapse' will merely put housing prices back where they should have been all along. So there won't be growth after the correction. Here's what I mean.

In Boston, you see houses for sale for $800,000 that would have been on the market for $900,000+ six months ago.

But that same house sold for $400,000 six or seven years ago. A 'bull' market in real estate is 3-5% growth, so houses have a long way to go down.

$600,000 for that house is not a deal. $400,000 is closer. The collapse and the ripples throughout the markets might even be enough to make Iraq the number two issue in 2008. But we'll have to see how that pans out.

CAVEATS

So many wild cards out there. Iran. Syria. China. Osama. Too many to list, but right now, I say:

Hillary's the nominee.

Women hold the key.

Iraq and Housing Collapse are the issues.

Comments

[dpack]

Hillary Clinton is leading in the polls because of the democratic party's desire to beat the republicans in what seems to be an easy election cycle. This strategy did not win for them in 2004 despite a flawed republican candidate and will not win in 2008. Perhaps if democrats focused more on their candidate's policies, tempermant and ability to run the country instead of a raw desire for political power, they may actually win a presidential election. While Hillary Clinton is smart and competent, she is not a leader, her husband is - people may respect her ability but will not follow her. And, when she ventures beyond platitudes about experience and change, her political debate on issues is typically in reponse to an Obama, Edwards or republican comment. As stated in this morning's Washington Post, Obama is framing the political debate. Clinton has yet to present a new or different policy or perspective that would elicit political commentary. For better or worse, whether you like him or not - Obama, like John Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, is a natural leader - someone people have and will follow. In February 2008, few of us knew who Barack Obama was, seven months later, he is a front-running candidate with Clinton and Edwards, placing in the top 3 in every poll. I pray the democrats do not repeat 2004 and jump on the band wagon before they have vented a good candidate. Had they followed this advice in 2004, today's debate would be about the re-election of President Edwards and Vice President Dean. Please, please democrats, this independent voter begs you to let the process play out.

[Abo]

Ugh. Every day I can't stand her more, yet she gets rammed down our throats.
Fact is, no one, except the Clintonistas likes her and their day is over. They do not own the Democratic party and if they continue to usurp it for their own personal ambitions they will see a growing exodus out of it.

[kms34786]

Mr. Boyce - unfortunately you lost me with the repetition contained in your first paragraph. I've read it several times and if I stretch I can make sense of it, but it really doesn't work.

The one thing I gathered is that you believe Hillary is the nominee, and I agree. The contest seems to be for the VP job. A strong showing by Richardson will help him garner that spot. He's a Clintonite, and has a world of executive and foreign policy experience not to mention his ties into the Latino community.

Unfortunately, Obama will eliminate himself from contention for the VP job because of the friction between the 2 frontrunner's. Edwards' populist preaching will continue to fall on deaf ears and he'll never accept nor would the Party want him as #2 again.

Maybe Al can suck it up and take a position in the government, but I think his dislike of the Clinton's will leave him on the outside tilting at windmills and trying to move the debate while discrediting the new administrations efforts as being "too little, too late".

That's my take, let me know what you think and if I can help.

[Pyrum]

It's about time you gave up on the idea of Al Gore running! I have no idea why you thought that was a possibility in the first place. And you know what? It's no great loss!

[gailwinds]

Mr. Boyce--- I detected a glimmer of hope for a Gore run--don't give up yet. There's too many of us scurrying just under the radar. I have noticed as time goes on, more people are asking where Gore is as they are dissatisfied with the current line up. It's sort of like the whole country has ADD though. When there's something big he's hot and two days later they forgot. God help us!

[alphex]

I don't know where people are polling, but it makes me wonder if I'm living in a fantasy world sometimes

Everyone I talk to doesn't think that Clinton would be a Bad President, its that they think they don't want her to be President. She has far too many skeletons in the closet, and as someone stated earlier, has sided with the corporate side of America far too many times.

What ever happened to her Universal Health Care platform? Oh, how much money has she received from the Health Care industry?

I'm sick of watching my party take the safe horse to the track. The Republican party has shot them selves in the foot, leg, arm, face and ass in the last 8 years. We as progressives have an amazing chance to lead from a position of change and new blood. We hated the fact that a second bush is in office, why do we want a second Clinton?

The "War on Terror" while a misnomer, and a fear tactic, does illustrate the different world we live in. We need a younger face with real energy, and a different history.

I'm all for Obama.
And if anyone talks to you about inexperience, lack of foreign experience, or any other element, ask them how young Bill Clinton was when he took office? and how everyone wondered how'd he would deal with international problems.

Stop questioning the intellegence of the man, based on his age, realize he's smart enough to have smart people working for him.

I'm starting to ramble, but get out of the traditional mind set of politics, and try to really CHANGE the way things are working.

[Dallas112263]

Some Headlines from Fall 2008...
Deadlock in Denver!!
Dems in Muddle Huddle...
Clinton Leads But Not Enough
Al Gore Chosen on First Ballot by Acclimation!
Throws Veep Choice to Floor...
And then my crystal ball gets murky... But if I had to bet... it's Gore-Clinton...

Dallas112263
Al Gore will be elected President in 2008
Not because he is running...
But because he is LEADING!

[BadChristian]

I used to be holding out for Gore.

Unfortunately, I don't share your optimism for the rest of the Dems. Not even a little.

I don't think the system works, and I think that's what Gore's lesson to me is.
Simplified:
American Politics are not worth you time or your confidence. Even if Democrats win the election, they will hand over the office and then blame the winner for being a loser.

To me, and I think to most urban residents who have seen their quality of life deteriorate along with it's infra-structure and it's small businesses' ability to compete with international super-stores, the "Third Way" has become our "Third Rail."
We equivocated on everything, and lost most of it.

It's like the Democrats ask urban residents what they don't want in a candidate, and then they nominate it.

[CriminallySane]

My own bet on Gore is that he will announce. It will come after he gets his Nobel. They announce in October.

And once he's in, he's the leader instantly.

Sen. Clinton, for all her fundraising prowess, has negatives so high that she will be a disaster even if she wins. Her victory will be Pyrrhic - she will motivate the R's and we will likely see 2006 gains erased downticket in many of the "purple" states.

[Herrington]

I have heard that Obama polls well with Republicans. Clinton does not, with her high negatives. Edwards does not because he is a lawyer, the enemy of every Republican’s blood. Biden gets no respect, perhaps deservedly. Richardson and Dodd are fine men, but have no mindshare. Gore won’t run.

What could be more sensible than to nominate the candidate that has the highest appeal with the opposition party? Clinton runs a tight ship, but as a leader she lacks, well, fire. She is coloring carefully inside the lines. Obama is trying to change the picture we are coloring, a position that appeals to the disaffected right, the center and many on the left. Whether a president can really move the thinking of the country away from deadlock and into cooperation is debatable, but the right bipartisan electoral statement to make is that we are willing to try. Obama is running on that, and if elected, that would be his mandate, rather than tending to the vested interests of the same old centers of political power.

Maybe that is over reaching. Better to be safe. I’m told there is a sign at the entrance of one Toyota plant, "The protruding nail will be hammered down".

[LindainSFNM]

Mr. Boyce, as Mr. Gore has time to enter the race still, I will hold out on that, as your last post was only a couple weeks ago asking him to enter, we still have time.

And, I indeed hope it will be Mr. Gore. Mrs. Clinton is a total Corporatist and has sided too many times with these NeoCons on key positions. The ones that count. Yes, she has more experience than the others that voted similarly. Al From and Bruce Reed are smiling indeed. They gave the Clinton ticket we all thought were just rumors 4 years ago. How does that make folks feel, that they dragged in Clark to bring down Dean because they knew he was her clearest threat for her occupancy on the White House's Oval Office? Yes folks, the thought that they manipulated the 04 Election with the DLC's "he can't win or vote your heard not your heart"-no one asked if you don't vote with your heart, it has no passion or ideals......bingo, we lost. They purposely gave us 4 more years of Bush so she would have her chance. Oh yeah, you expect us to rally around that?

Well, where as folks are looking for the anti Hillary, I myself am looking for the correct person. None of these other candidates, including Hillary will move us forward where we need to go to solve these many, SERIOUS problems we face. Al Gore will, not they. They are keeping us in Iraq, they are talking more war with Iran. They are not talking about the specific plans to solve the climate crisis and they are not offering a true Universal Health Care or Single Payer system. HOW THE HECK ARE WE GOING TO MOVE FORWARD WITH ANYONE BUT AL GORE?

We all better hope and act to make sure Al Gore hears us, our support and that we know we want and need him.

Time for a COOL change
Gore
2008

Supermean wears Al Gore pajamas.

[seawolf77]

Democrats will beat any Republican in 2008. Like 2000 there is natural party fatigue, and with these guys true exhaustion. That's the good news. The bad news is that this is such a mess a person would have to be a little touched to want the job. I see the Dems inheriting a mess, than getting blamed for it in 2012. The Republican party is the party of disaster, pure and simple. There like the bugs in MIB, they thrive on the death and destruction of others. Wake up people, you will never be one of them, you'll always and only be the ones that wipe their royal asses... and then smooch smooch smooch.

[LindainSFNM]

oh please, Richardson, Mr. "change his website to erase proof of his similar support of Feingold/Reid Iraq Bill" Richardson-so he could then bash the other Dem candidates?

He is not proposing all out. He says that as a talking point, then goes in to detail of how it has to be "over a period of time". Please.

And if you think Cronyism and Payola for tax dollars on special interests is synonymous with George Bush-WAIT! OH! Richardson would finish of the Democrats in office for sure. He's such a corporatist, forgetting that government is there for the people, not to take their tax dollars to make deals.

And if folks don't like secret government, hold on, you're in for a rought ride.

The perfect example of padding ones' resume!

Hopefully folks will start really doing some looking in to him if they are starting to take Richardson seriously.

[StephenCassidy]

“We’ve begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar Province, it’s working. We’re just years too late changing our tactics. We can’t ever let that happen again. We can’t be fighting the last war; we have to be preparing to fight the new war.”

That was HRC at the VWF convention yesterday. Is this the voice of someone that is going to end the U.S. occupation of Iraq?

Clinton, Biden, Obama and Edwards aren't confident enough in their judgment to stand up to the military and political establishment on Iraq or lack the foreign policy expertise to order a complete withdrawal should they get elected. We saw this at the debate in Iowa. They'll keep forces in Iraq for years to come.

What difference then will there be on the most important issue of the campaign between the Democratic and Republican Presidential nominees?

The path out of Iraq for the Senators will be a long march spread over years. That will be true as well with any Republican Presidential nominee.

With Richardson, our forces will be out - completely - by the end of 2009. William M. Arkin who writes on National and Homeland Security for the Washington Post recently commented:

It is on Iraq though, that Richardson really shines. . . "Other than the customary Marine contingent at the embassy, I would not leave anyone behind. And if the embassy isn't safe, they're coming home too. No airbases. No troops in the Green Zone. No embedded soldiers training Iraqi forces, because we know what that means. It means our troops would still be out on patrol -- with targets on their backs."

We are spending $10 billion a month on Iraq, Richardson says. "Of the many ways in which Mr. Bush's ill-conceived war has distracted us from our real national security needs, this is the most dangerous," he concludes. "There is not a single sign that Iraq is improving. To the contrary, every indication is that it's getting worse, and a smaller force will do nothing to change that."

[genmalia]

And what does Richardson say of the violence that will befall American contractors and further civil angst of Iraqi's if we withdraw completely and too quickly?

Sad to know that people will believe anything they hear. Americans, even if they disagree with being in Iraq, have authorized the war by sheer complacency. Yes, withdrawing the US entirely would be great, but it is also impractical and naive.

Richardson shines because he is so slick, not because he is actually bright.

[Balakirev]

Clinton has the strongest support, but also the greatest negatives in poll after poll, state after state. The question shouldn't be, can she win against X? It should be, can she win against the multi-million dollar slandering machine, and the support any Republican candidate will receive from nearly all of the national media?

I don't think so. I don't think she can win by being the choice candidate of the DLC and Big Pharma, and I don't think she will invigorate either Democrats or Independents sufficiently with her right-of-center views and her support for the Iraqi invasion and war. She's bigtime, but she's a bigtime loser, in my opinion.

But we'll see. It's still up for grabs.

[kitsapdem]

BS! Hillary will be the nominee, the next President, AND one of the best Presidents ever! Get a grip people and see the light. Pick a winner and stop your whining!

[castlerider]

Like many, yourself included, I'm holding out hope for Al Gore, to the last. When would that be, 2nd week of September?
This is his time. We all know it should have been before, but he'll only be a better president now. The right would have trounced him constantly before, at every turn. His presidency though brilliant, I'm sure, would have been constantly dogged by the likes of Rove and his doughboy rightwing minnions. Now they've shot themselves in the hooter and everyone can see them for the losers they've always been...
Come on, VP Gore, America needs you.