Last December, I was doing MSNBC and everyone was asking about the 2008 race and my answer always started, "it's so early." Well, time passes and now it's not so early anymore. Our top candidates have been on the road and especially spending time in Iowa and New Hampshire. Tens of millions of dollars have been raised and now, everyone is on air in Iowa -- clearly timing has changed.
Let me set this one clear pre-amble. I am not working with, for or against anyone right now in terms of the nomination. I am calling it as I see it. I have friends, good friends, on the Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Dodd and Richardson campaigns. I respect all our candidates and strongly, STRONGLY, believe that each and every one of them are far, far better than anyone from the Republican side.
Having said that, let the muttering begin.
HILLARY
Barring a last minute entrance from Al Gore (more on that below), Senator Clinton is more than poised to be the nominee. In fact, smart money is already looking for how they can help her win in 2008.
Simply put, every national poll and now every state poll favors her. There is no evidence to the contrary. She has a top notch campaign staff and while every candidate will stumble here and there, and she has had a couple of rough moments, Simply put, every national poll and now every state poll favors her. There is no evidence to the contrary
From the best online team, the best communications team, the single best fundraiser the Democratic Party has ever seen, top to bottom she has the staff to help her through any rough spots.
Can she win the general? Absolutely.
If I was a Clinton supporter and donor, I would be looking to help the women at Women's Voices. Women Vote. Maximizing that underperforming segment will help Senator Clinton a great deal.
RICHARDSON
The state poll most recently out of Iowa shows me three things.
I like John Edwards personally and politically, but there is something missing this time around. He is rolling the dice on Iowa and as more and more people go on air there, he is losing ground not gaining it. I think the campaign is well run by smart people but maybe he has been too front and center for too long, but I see a continued fade there.
I also like Barack Obama and he has some great people working for him. But both nationally and in states where he is focusing, I don't see any upward momentum. Same with Christopher Dodd.
However, Richardson is the only one who is moving up where he is focusing time. He has some, modest momentum. If he finished a strong second in Iowa, he would have some momentum. Will he ever overtake Hillary? That's a long shot but if I was going to pick a horse other than Hillary, I would be picking Bill Richardson.
GORE
Last month, I wrote two pieces about Al Gore.
The continued silence says to me, he's not running. I have tried, others have tried and while the DraftGore movement organizers are to be commended for their efforts, the only one who can draft Al Gore is Al Gore.
We're down to the count on a potential Gore run and while I have been the most optimistic of my crowd, I expect him to pass.
THE HOUSING QUAGMIRE
The pain from the collapse of the housing market will be deep, pronounced and should be laid completely at the feet of the Republicans. Prices for housing will drop, I believe, an additional 20-30% from where they are now, more in the big bubble markets (Miami, Vegas, etc.)
The problem will be is that this 'collapse' will merely put housing prices back where they should have been all along. So there won't be growth after the correction. Here's what I mean.
In Boston, you see houses for sale for $800,000 that would have been on the market for $900,000+ six months ago.
But that same house sold for $400,000 six or seven years ago. A 'bull' market in real estate is 3-5% growth, so houses have a long way to go down.
$600,000 for that house is not a deal. $400,000 is closer. The collapse and the ripples throughout the markets might even be enough to make Iraq the number two issue in 2008. But we'll have to see how that pans out.
CAVEATS
So many wild cards out there. Iran. Syria. China. Osama. Too many to list, but right now, I say:
Hillary's the nominee.
Women hold the key.
Iraq and Housing Collapse are the issues.