Every day, it's the same conversation about the same people for 2008.
On the left, it's Hillary, Barack and John Edwards. And even though there are some slight changes on polling, opinion, and news, for the most part, the story lines remain the same.
On the right, it's Giuliani, McCain and Romney. And again, the story is pretty much proceeding as expected.
But here are two things to watch out for as we head into spring.
On the left, the netroots-early-warning-detection-system is starting to buzz a little bit and the recipient of the buzz is Bill Richardson. He is getting attention for his simple and strong Iraq stand (which many of his new admirers like very much compared to the continuing nuances of the big three) and his foreign policy experience, especially the way he has worked with North Korea and Darfur.
Richardson is also good on energy policy, has been everything from a Governor to an Ambassador and don't forget, he's Hispanic on his mother's side. He raised good money in the first quarter, $6.2 million, and spent very little leaving his cash on hand at over $5,000,000 on par with John McCain.
Richardson will get a look over the next sixty to ninety days and if he transfers his growing online buzz into mainstream media buzz, watch out. Media pundits are a little bored of the Hillary / Barack / Edwards stories and they might latch onto the new guy and jump him up a notch. I think he would hurt each of th big three equally, pulling a few points from each and moving into mid-teens by June.
On the right, this would be the bombshell but I personally believe that every day the right's contenders flounder, and if it appears that McCain slides towards "no chance in hell status" you will see Vice President Dick Cheney enter the race "for the good of the country."
Remember: he was Bush's choice to head up the VP search and in the process, discovered himself. He is a true believer in wingnuttery and the pressure from the extreme right has to be certainly growing. They have no candidate and no hope right now and eight years of President Democrat is enough for Sean Hannity to give Cheney mouth-to-mouth next time his ticker tocks.
Back to the left. Will Al Gore enter the race late? Will he come in and ride his leadership on Iraq and his leadership on Global Warming? Well, Nate Wilcox and I had Joe Trippi on our BlogTalkRadio show "Heading Left" recently and it got me thinking about a couple of extra scenarios.
Gore could enter the race with a pure netroots / grassroots play, committing to accepting no more than $500 from any one person (Joe Trippi likes the $100 per person commitment, I think $500 will be more reasonable.)
Gore could in very short order raise an average of $80 from 1,000,000 Americans in 30 days. Very very possible. (This is $80,000,000 in the bank. His own algore.com email list by the way has added huge numbers since it launched.)
Gore could then pick and choose the states to play in and focus heavily on the Super Tuesday and early states where he can win the most delegates. (California for example. Florida owes him one I am told.) Imagine the October - February stretch and all the stories when Gore shows up in New Hampshire, for example, for the first time in seven years as a candidate. He will dominate the airwaves.
Gore and his team also need to do some serious delegate counting. It's been a while since getting the majority of delegates really counted - it will this time. In 2004, John Kerry coasted after Iowa and New Hampshire, this time, every delegate will count. If there are four running, and then Gore makes five, he could get the delegates he needs.
Gore can then head onto the convention and either emerges the Nominee or brokers a deal to address Global Warming (a new cabinet position and federal department perhaps?) But if he gets in late, with a strong netroots / grassroots play, with his Iraq message and global warming chops, the media will flock, and primary voters will be looking for something new to talk about, he might be the greatest comeback kid of all time.
Besides if you think Clinton-Giuliani would be a fight, just imagine the smackdown that would be Cheney-Gore.
Let the games begin.
UPDATE: Markos at DailyKos just released his latest straw poll and there are two very interesting things. Richardson has moved up strongly and Edwards is the frontrunner and running strong. It's interesting the disparity between the online poll and the offline polling we're seeing. Because BOTH WORLDS matter. It's not an either or deal - you need strength in both worlds to win.