Fears of War Grow in Lebanon
The beaches are crowded, the restaurants full, but the Lebanese rumour mill talks of another war around the corner
Lebanon is truly the two-faced Janus of the Middle East. As the country revels in a tourism boom and Beirut's beaches and restaurants brim with visitors, beneath the surface there is deep unease about the potential for violent upheaval.
Arriving in Beirut, the country's politics -- the prevalence of engaged discussion -- slaps you in the face. Even while waiting in the departure lounge for my flight there, I caught several animated conversations -- the names of leaders past and present floating through the air. The ongoing cabinet negotiations and uncertainty that followed the "victory" of the March 14 Alliance are front-page news that greets you on exiting Rafik Hariri International Airport, built and named after the man whose unresolved death is a parable for the inherent weaknesses of the Lebanese pseudo-state.
Traveling into town from the southern suburbs the horizon is packed with cranes that are finishing off the rebuilding from the 2006 Israeli bombardment. The drive through the city is a trip of political portraits and tribal flags.
The astonishing volte face of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt away from what was simplistically characterised by many commentators as the anti-Syrian alliance is still rocking the boat of Lebanese attempts to form a cabinet. Initial promises by the March 14 group to form one within a week, and to have enough independence to stand apart from Hezbollah, have been shattered and some are questioning whether the young Hariri has enough of the political acumen that fueled his father's success until his untimely demise.
Meanwhile beneath the political bickering a greater challenge may lie on the horizon. There is talk of "war shopping", of people storing up supplies in case growing Israeli rhetoric towards the country becomes a reality. Interestingly even Hariri stated recently that "We are neither against Iran, nor against Syria; we are only against Israel because it is our enemy."
This is despite the enduring legacy of the 2006 conflict, which is still very visible. Buildings are being rebuilt, Israeli aircraft regularly buzz the south and hundreds are maimed or killed each year by the millions of cluster munitions that were dropped during Israel's retreat.
Similarly to the 2008 Gaza conflict, the 2006 war was a "rocket war" where initial attempts to rescue captured soldiers escalated to the almost impossible task of destroying Hezbollah's rocket arsenal. According to recent reports this arsenal, although pushed north of the border by the expanded presence of international peacekeepers (Unifil 2), is estimated to be 40,000 strong with rumours that some rockets could hit Tel Aviv or even Israel's undeclared nuclear weapon facilities in the south. This would give Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, the potential to extract an "eye for an eye" if any US/Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear facilities was to occur.
This may be simple Hezbollah propaganda designed to ward off any attack, yet during the 2006 war the missile strike against the Israeli navy and the ground handling of anti-tank munitions speak of an adversary that should not be taken lightly. Perhaps this explains the increasing pressure from Israel. Last week the Israeli deputy foreign minister promised that if "one hair" on a representative of Israel or an Israeli tourist was hurt, there would be "dire consequences". This may be an attempt to warn Hezbollah off seeking revenge for the car bomb assassination of Imad Mugniyeh in Damascus last year.
Yet Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, admitted that he misjudged the Israeli response to the soldiers' capture in 2006 and he would be well advised not to treat the Israeli threats as empty. There is of course a historical precedent: the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon was triggered by an assassination attempt on their ambassador to the UK by Abu Nidal.
An Israeli administration frustrated by the American attempts to rein in its settlement program could find welcome distraction in an attempt to succeed where Kadima failed. Whether there is a war or not, the very fact that such potential still exists, only three years after a previous conflict wiped out the lives of so many, is testimony to the dangers of conflicts that are not resolved but rather simply put on ice.
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This is an excerpt from a Times of London article published August 5th, 2009. Isn't great that the internet allows us to search for information people happen to forget to include in their article?
"Last month the scale of the Hezbollah build-up was revealed after an explosion at an ammunition bunker in the village of Khirbet Slim, 12 miles from the Israeli border.
Surveillance footage obtained by The Times showed Hezbollah fighters trying to salvage rockets and munitions from the site. Obstructions were placed in the way of Unifil peacekeepers going to investigate.
Alain Le Roy, the head of UN peacekeeping operations, told the Security Council last month that the explosion amounted to a serious violation of UN Resolution 1701, which imposed a ceasefire and arms ban after the war.
“A number of indications suggest that the depot belonged to Hezbollah and, in contrast to previous discoveries by Unifil and the Lebanese Armed Forces of weapons and ammunition, that it was not abandoned but, rather, actively maintained,†he said. "
Oh, the 2006 war, Isn't is sad when people start a war and then can't take the consequences?
Maybe Israel's words are a rection to Nasrallah boasting about having the capability hitting Tel Aviv? A little detail the writer conveniently forgot to mention.
That's a pretty gross over-simplification of why the Lebanon conflict of 1982 broke out. Following is a true synopsis by Mitchell Bard:
In March 1978, PLO terrorists infiltrated Israel. After murdering an American tourist walking near an Israeli beach, they hijacked a civilian bus. The terrorists shot through the windows as the bus traveled down the highway. When Israeli troops intercepted the bus, the terrorists opened fire. A total of 34 hostages died in the attack. In response, Israeli forces crossed into Lebanon and overran terrorist bases in the southern part of that country, pushing the terrorists away from the border.
Violence escalated with a series of PLO attacks and Israeli reprisals. Finally, the United States helped broker a ceaseÂfire agreement in July 1981. The PLO repeatedly violated the cease-fire over the ensuing 11 months. The PLO staged 270 terrorist actions in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, and along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders. TwentyÂnine Israelis died and more than 300 were injured in the attacks.
Meanwhile, a force of some 15-18,000 PLO members was encamped in scores of locations in Lebanon. The PLO arsenal included mortars and Katyusha rockets.
The final provocation occurred in June 1982 when a Palestinian terrorist attempted to assassinate Israel's Ambassador to Great Britain.
Could we please deal with facts instead of the fiction that the Arabs make up?
So Hizbollah lost the election but by pressing Israel they can get Israel to attack Libanon.
Then again ... Hizbollah gets the credit from fighting back against the "common enemy".
Too simplistic and laughable.
>Too simplistic and laughable.
You left no argument for why is that. I was trying to deduce from the text. I still think I was right.
Sure would be nice to see peace in the region.
If Israel intends to go to war again, as reported, what is the rationale this time?
Israel does not intend to go to war. Israel intends to defend itself when Hezbollah attacks it, like it did in the last war.
Abu Nidal is name that many have forgotten or never heard of.
Hiz will get better rockets and there will be war. The cycle of violence will continue, unfortunately with a bunker mentality on one side and a underground tunnel system on the other with better and better rockets.
The situation speaks to the human condition. When were there no wars? Not in my lifetime. So we need to adjust to a permanent state of war, according to Rumsfeld.
What is more fair to one side is less fair to the other. We live in the heart of the beast as far as empire is concerned. So far, we are winning. But as technology increases, so does the danger of a few individuals doing serious damamge. If Native Americans had IEDs, no wagon trains would have crossed the Rockies.
Too bad humans are unable to solve their problems without violence. The territorial imperative remasins a constant factor along with the technology of killing. One we had castles until seize engines were developed and castles became a trap. The Great Wall of China probably kept people in rather than Mongols out. It's all a bad dream.
My friend, two things cause war:
Greed
and
Injustice.
C'est la vie.
Don't mean you can't be cheerful despite it all.
You are absolutely wrong about the causes of war. No one can simply the causes of war in the manner you have attempted, it just isn't accurate or truthful.
And maybe stupidity and intolerance as well?
Abu Nidal was of course under sentence of death by the PLO (for trying to kill Yassar Arafat and for the killings of other PLO and Arab officials) in 82 but Israel did not let this stop them from using it as an excuse to invade Lebanon. Since he never tried to carry out terrorist missions inside Israel, and since most of his missions seemed to benefit Israel in some way (especially the killing of moderate PLO and Arab officials who wanted better relations with Israel), many have speculated that he was an agent of Israeli intelligence.
Read Patrick Seale's book on the abu nidal.
He reckons the same too.
Gee, what could possibly go wrong?
Let Israel rage on and attack. Lebanon will eventually turn into a solidly anti-Israel state. It will be a very good development if the Israeli nuclear site and some nuclear weapons are ht because that will make discussion of these weapons and urgent global matter -- rather than Iran's pursuit of a nuclear deterrent against them.
Lebanon is a solidly anti-Israel state. The influence of Syria is so strong it would be impossible for it to be any other way.
Not solid enough. They need to take more steps:
Sign a mutual defense pact with Iran and Syria, and start equipping their armed forces with advanced Chinese and Russian weapons. Anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles would be a good start. Advanced proximity mines for the border for those juicy Merkavas.
Declare solidarity with Hizbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian people.
Withdraw recognition for Israel and declare it an "entity."
As usual, Israel will not attack first. Arabs always make the same stupid mistake and attack Israel first.
In 2006, Hizbollah captured two israeli soldiers. That was an attack? And Israel broke the Gaza truce first.
As usual, the Zionists and the truth appear at opposite ends of the universe.
Sick of hearing about it--all of it. We have problems enough at home, and another war in the Middle East will hardly do us any good.
We should have just bought them all off when we had the chance, and now we may not have enough money to do it.
How does a country this small PAY for the weapons they'd need to even put a DENT in Israel's armor?
It's the David and Goliath strategy.
Iran gives them money.
And Is.rael gives them the reason and motivation.
At some point, Hiz is going to get good, modern weapons. The sooner the better.
The sooner the better?
And what do you suppose that would accomplish ?
Hezbollah would get modern weapons like what?
Like the new short range scud missile that Iran, N Korea and Syria are working on together that was tested today? It killed 20 innocent people in a market in Syria because it misfired. That sort of "modern weapon" ?
Too many people are delusional or hate Israel so much they fail to understand that to date, aside from the wars Israel fought against collective Arab armies - that they won anyway, Israel has fought only limited wars where they deliberately fight with only a fraction of their capability.
If Tel Aviv were hit by a deliberate missile attack by Hezbollah, Lebanon would lose most of its infrastructure in a matter of days ... Syria would also be taken out, and my guess is Iran would sit on the sidelines fearing an attack from the US, UK and Israel if they dared to make a move.
So don't wish to hard for something because you might just get it and it wouldn't be very good for anyone, but that goes double for Lebanon which would be especially sad given most Lebanese would welcome having their country back.
Silly hizb rokets emptied out the entire north of israel in '06.
The modern weapon mantra didn't work for Egypt and Syria, PLO, Jordan,
After being wiped out by IDF they wisely decided to sit the next one. For the next hundred years or or.
If Hezbollah want to REALLY play. let's go for it. But I doubt. It;'s mostly the cyber Jihadists that love to play their imaginary war games. With other people''s lives, of course.
I doubt they will ever match Israel's arsenal. They don't have the economic power nor the brain power to do so.
Oh, good grief.
I have come to the conclusion that war means $$ in this area of the world, and that this will continue until either all are killed off (genepool elimination in progress) or $$ can't be made any longer cause there's no one left to kill or "tribe up" with.
If this is 'civilization' - you can keep it.
I would suggest all women and children leave Lebanon now - read the play LYSISTRATA - stop the male madness.
Sorry dear but the Lebanese ain't going nowhere.
Israelis on the other hand will start fleeing back to europe where they came from soon as newly acquired Lebanese medium-range missiles start raining on tel aviv and Lebanese anti-aircraft weaponry, for the first time in the conflict's history, begins blasting down and hard the izzie air force one after the other.
Yes Lebanon will be hit hard too, but they're all eager and more than ready to be liberated from the israeli jack-boot that keeps attempting to crush down on their children's necks.
The 2006 war saw the israelis using more firepower on Lebanese civilians in 34 days than was used in the whole of world war 2.
It ain't easy for the Lebanese to forgive or forget an event like this - and quite rightly so.
You better get the word out. All the Lebanese I know think the jackbooted one is Syria. Set them straight.
It's ALL men.
Who else would be so evil as to be greedy about processes that kill other humans.
You seriously underestimate the resolve of the Israeli people. And apparently the phrase "3rd most powerful military in the world" doesn't mean anything to you. Israel had no problem occupying Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank all at the same time while simultaneously defending against a possibly imminent Syrian-Iranian attack. During Lebanon 2006 and Operation Cast Lead the IDF was running at around 20% of it's actual capacity. If Hizbollah does acquire any sort of effective anti-aircraft capability, it will be quickly nullified by Israeli intelligence / satellites and the Jericho missile.
It's quite obvious that Israel isn't worried about another round or three with Hizbollah. A total of 1,179 civilians died in the 2006 war. For the first time in history, the IAF dropped leaflets warning of impending bombings. Claims of civilians being targeted as a policy are laughable to anybody who understands modern warfare.
Hamas launched close to 4000 rockets at Israeli population centers.
It ain't easy for the Israeli people to forgive or forget an event like this - and quite rightly so.
"Israelis on the other hand will start fleeing back to europe where they came from"
Oh really? Is that what you think .. that Israelis are from Europe?
Mizrahi Jews, and Sephardic Jews 2,921,000 49.4%
Ashkenazi Jews 2,817,000 47.6%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel#Ethnic_groups
you said this ..
"newly acquired Lebanese medium-range missiles start raining on tel aviv"
and by that I assume you mean acquired from Iran so you might be interested in ...
"Twenty Syrians were killed and over 60 injured in a failed Scud missile test carried out by Syria, Iran and North Korea in May, Japan's Kyodo News reported on Friday.
One of two missiles had apparently strayed off its course due to a technical malfunction, landing in a civilian populated area in a town on the Syrian-Turkish border. The victims were all civilians. "
http://www.zeenews.com/news555435.html
Lets try to keep it real ...
Invading Lebanon with Bush administration support was a disaster. Doing the same without the support of the White House is unlikely to result in any greater success.
Two reactions.
First, an invasion will be a military matter. It will be a contest between two armed forces. The IDF and Hizb and its allies. It wasn't just Hizb fighters in 2006. There is no realistic prospect that the US military will be involved.
Second, support comes in many forms. One traditional way is to prevent cease fires until one side has achieved its goals. Or as in 1973, arrange a cease fire, and then turn a blind eye while one's friends violate it. As Dr. Kissinger reportedly said in 1973, "I'll be on the plane tonight going back to the USA. If there were a cease fire violation tonight, the US Government will be unable to respond until I return to Washington".
Modern wars fought in urban areas such as Beirut, Baghdad, and Gaza, are no longer "a military matter".
The overwhelming casualties are civilians.
The "eye for an eye" mentality means endless wars and endless civilians murdered, because that is what modern war is: mass murder of mostly civilians.
Israel was extensively armed by the united States during it's last carpet-bombing of southern Lebanon, and was also provided a great deal of political cover.
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2006-08/2006-08-06-voa2.cfm?CFID=278500981&CFTOKEN=83471522&jsessionid=6630bd989e64a1358850192a69572681c312
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0810-08.htm
Lebanon is a beautiful country and I wish it peace.
Well said. I second that.
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