With Palin, The election will be about ideology, and what type of change

With Palin, The election will be about ideology, and what type of change
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Sarah Palin is an unscripted moment in American politics -- somewhat like Minnesota electing a pro wrester as governor, except in this case, to potentially become President of the United States. Having lived 13 years in Alaska, I have followed Palin's career with some interest. In 2006 she came out of nowhere to defeat a well established but unpopular republican governor in a primary, and then continued to defeat Tony Knowles in the general election. The Yale educated Tony Knowles, whom I knew well when I lived in Alaska, was an impressive and popular two term mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, and a well regarded two term Governor, who left office due to a limit on serving more than two consecutive terms in office. One of the reasons that Palin won in 2006 was her performance in the televised debates. She is a former sports and weather TV personality, and she can perform well in that media. She is not much of a manager, but by the prevailing standards in politics, she is not stupid, and there is some evidence of Reagan like gifts to communicate with voters.

Like the popular former Republican governor Jay Hammond, she has fashioned herself as a somewhat unpredictable and independent voice, appointed a mostly capable bi-partisan cabinet, and generally allowed the professionals to run the government.* Nearly every Alaskan politician with statewide ambitions is pro-development, to some degree, and she is no exception, influenced no doubt by her husband's employment in the oil industry, working for the foreign owned British Petroleum. It does not make sense to paint her as a party hack, as the democrats have recently tried to paint McCain -- she is much more interesting than that.

My guess is that Palin will become an enormous story in a short amount of time, simply because she is so much fun to talk about. But in the end, her qualifications for the job seem to be completely adequate for the republican base, and compared to people like Dan Qualye, who was on a winning ticket, within the realm of possibilities. What she does present now is an election narrative that is no longer about a single party bringing about change or making history. The new campaign is about right and left. McCain and Palin are both mavericks, but it is becoming pretty clear, they are right wing mavericks. Not right wing on every issue, but by choosing Palin, McCain is sending the party to the right, and the voters will have a choice between two very different ideologies in the fall. That will be the argument the democrats will have to win, if they want to govern.

If the democrats want to win this election, they will have to do more than attack Palin's super thin experience, because she can, to some measure, reassure people with strong performances on television and uncomplicated sound bites that will appeal to many. Democrats will have to flush out some details of what she would do on policy issues that voters care about -- student loans, dealing with the financial industry melt down, trade policy, expanding health care insurance, managing social security, etc. No one knows much about her views on these things because they are really non-issues in Alaska state politics. This may not be as easy as it seems, if she allows herself to be managed by the Rove types that are increasingly running the McCain campaign.

The election is no longer about change, it is about what type of change. It is not longer about history, it is about the future. What type of change and what type of future would the two parties present? The Democrats should focus on this, because attacks on character and experience will not be enough.

* With, of course, the notable exception of her efforts to use her power over the state police to punish her sisters ex-husband.

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