One Year Later: Gerald Ford Will Always Be President

"Gerald Ford will always be president." That's a cynical piece of Washington wisdom that you can find a) discomfiting, or b) reassuring. But c), it is an enduring truth. The centrist center of gravity in this town is that strong.

Such centrist reality is distressing to the left today, just as it was distressing to the right in the era of Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove.

I am writing before the results of Election Day 2009 are known, but it's a cinch that the electoral results will be a check on progressive ambitions. As has been obvious all year, conservative/libertarian/tea-partying energy has been surging since Barack Obama's inauguration. The latest Gallup Poll, for example, finds the percentage of self-identified conservatives on the rise, while the percentage of self-identified liberals is declining.

A year ago, according to Gallup, conservatives outnumbered liberals by 15 points, 37 to 22. Today, conservatives have ticked up three points, and liberals have ticked down two points; 40 percent of Americans now call themselves conservative, just 20 percent liberal -- a 2:1 advantage for conservatives. Politicians are doing the math; center-right beats center-left.

Which brings up another Beltway lesson: Ideology and power generally go in opposite directions. Ideological movements arise in reaction to the perceived abuses and excesses of the incumbents, and then those movements recede when "their" side takes power. Of course, the most ardent wings, left and right, will never be happy with much that anyone in power does, no matter what his or her label. That's the price that those respective wings pay for being in the fringe ideological deciles of the population; by definition, they are always on the outside looking in.

The point here is that the political equivalent of the statistical concept of regression always kicks in after an election: Things are never as good as you hope, nor as bad as you fear. The middling middle triumphs: Hello, President Ford.

There have been exceptions, of course, to this muddle-through rule. Such instances are sufficiently rare in American history that they get their own special term: "realignment." And there have been only four of five realignments in American history. Franklin Roosevelt and his New Dealers led one one the 1930s and 40s, and Ronald Reagan and his Reagan Revolutionaries led another in the the 1980s -- although once again, the level of change the Reaganites achieved was deeply disappointing to "movement" conservatives.

A year ago, Obama might have thought that he was going to be another FDR -- an admiring media told him he could do it -- but it hasn't happened. Perhaps the situation might have been different if Obama had put more emphasis, sooner, on the primary issues of jobs and mortgages, thus cementing the loyalties of worse-off swing voters. But instead, Obama chose healthcare and global warming, and he pursued those secondary issues with no great competence.

So no Rooseveltian realignment for Obama, just Clintonian regression.

So, one year after the election, what do you think Candidate Obama would think of President Obama? Tweet your response (our Twitter hashtag is #OneYearLater), or post it in the comments section.

 

Follow James Pinkerton on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jamesppinkerton

Comments

[Samalabear]

Meaningful health care reform would have been critical to job growth. Unfortunately the current bill will not do it. Meaningful health care reform would have been the separation of health insurance from employers.

That being said, I urge people, if you have HBO, to watch Schematta: From Rags to Riches to Rags. You'll once again be screaming about NAFTA and outsourcing, and wonder why nothing is being done about this -- or whether anything will. My bet is that Obama will do nothing in this area. He's not going to ruffle Indian or Chinese feathers. This documentary is about the fashion industry, a/k/a the garment industry and it's decimation. It's not a fluff story.

Pay special attention to Wall Street connection and how it destroyed this industry in this country, as it has so many others. It's all about the bottom line. One designer in the program said people should pay attention because soon it will be white collar jobs that are being outsource. I laughed because, sadly, that has been going on for a few years, too.

[Solph]

Clintonian regression? The comparisons were made with from FDR to LBJ, and now is reduced to Clinton? I'm afraid you still overestimate Obama. We will see next year and in 2012.

[seawolf77]

I hear this all the time and I am not sure what you mean. Infrastructure money is in the pipeline. Health Care reform will make alot more businsess viable as well as giving people who want to start a business one less thing to worry about. The green economy means solar,wind and improving existing homes. What exactly are you looking for Obama to start a wdiget factory. What does focus on jobs mean. You have done a poor job explaining yourself.

[Overtone]

RIFLE SHOTS AIMED AT UNEMPLOYMENT!

Gerald Ford’s Administration encouraged the 1977 job tax credit program, which included a few of the incentives in a neglected Human Investment Tax Credit (HITC) program aimed at generating up to 6 million jobs and launching perhaps 4 million entrepreneurs. The 1977 pro-gram proved it can work. That stripped down version generated 900,000 jobs - 20% of the jobs created that year!

Download the 2009 version free at: http://www.aesopinstitute.org

Congress should fine-tune and pass the 2009 HITC program without delay!

Another path to millions of jobs is described in the article: 5 Steps to Revive the Auto Industry and the Economy - on the same website.

It outlines revolutionary new technology that opens paths to cars that need no fossil fuel or re-charge. Advanced versions can later turn parked cars into power plants, able to sell power to the local utility.

The technology is not in the textbooks and will be greeted with extreme skepticism and disbelief.

However, independent laboratory validation of one remarkable breakthrough has taken place at Rowan University. It produced far more heat than can readily be explained by existing science, clearly suggesting a new source of energy is involved. The experiments must be repeated at other laboratories!

That validation began the process of proving that new technology can allow a barrel of water to replace 200 barrels of oil!

It can change what is currently believed about energy and help to generate millions of jobs.

[DocWylie]

I used to think that " History doesn't repeat itself, Historians repeat each other." was just a cute sayinig.
Thanks to Mr Pinkerton for his shining example.

[Shammie2000]

Yeah, But the Dem have control of both houses and they don't even need any ReThug votes on most
issues, they ReThug's are in the minority now and yet they still seem to controll the congress.

[LeLoup]

Don't you remember how the Republicans did everything they could to water down the effectiveness of the stimulus package? Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts, no program for infrastructure, or jobs retraining. They're even delaying passage of benefits extension just because they want above all to see Obama fail.

Republicans in Congress do not care one bit about jobs, if this could be perceived in any way to help Obama.

[Shammie2000]

Obama has wasted a year on trying to work with the ReThug's (insane) when people have no jobs and
no job security healthcare is not at the top of their list, how can I pay for health insurance if I don't have
an income, many people in his office worked for the Clintons also and they should have known, IT'S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID. Looks like the Dems are in trouble and this time they can't blame it
all on the ReThug's they control all branches of government.

[RandVictims]

Absolutely spot-on.

[customgreen]

A couple of meaningless elections, do not make a sea change. The population on a whole does not agree with conservatism, they want liberalism. The republicans show time and time again they are out of touch with mainstream American ideals. To thump your chest over this silly election cycle is just another info blabber that the right is trying to push. Just background noise. Ignore it.

[swift goat pet for truth]

Think what you want.

In my life I have learned it ain't over 'til its over.

[Balzac]

This is wrong. President Obama will accomplish a lot more than you think. People are goading the president, chiding him for a lack of boldness. I disagree. This first year was spent letting ethnic anxiety fizzle out. It was like opening a soda bottle slowly to release pressure so it doesn't bubble over.

Barack Obama's presidency is unprecedented because he's not the same as his 43 predecessors. That means you can't compare him to FDR and just conclude he's too conciliatory. FDR didn't have to contend with the ethnic politics, so he was free to start throwing hay-makers without concern.

Just a short time ago, Bill Cosby warned President Obama to take it easy so as not to rile up white Americans, many of whom were struggling with heightened anxiety after a big change. People are acting like the so-called "beer summit" didn't even happen this summer.

Ultimately, President Obama will be known as a guy who brings big changes for the improvement of this country and the world. He'll be big change president, not just stewardship president. Drug policy, environmentalism, foreign policy, economic policy - all of these are long overdue for modernization and correction.

The first year was a bit slow, but there are three more years to go. That should be sufficient to end the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then win re-election. That's when we'll see the biggest changes, when in the second term, the president is not concerned with re-election.

[RedInGeorgia]

The problem with this theory is that should the Democratic Party have nothing good and substantial to run on, they will lose the the supermajority they now hold in Congress.

If you think Obama will be able to be even MORE bold after in 2011 and 2012 with his agenda, when he has to get it through a House and Senate with MORE Republicans, you've lost your marbles.

If Obama continues to wait, wait, and wait some more, there will be nothing substantial to convince voters to maintain the Democratic majorities in 2010, and therefore, even less likely to have anything substantial to convince voters in 2012 to give him a second term.

[nanoscare]

Self-identified labels are largely irrelevant. No true believer in the currant conservative movement supports social security. 20 years of propaganda could turn the word "conservative into "fundamentalist mullah."

[EngineerBill]

Ya know I wish that "Gerald Ford Will Always Be President" was actually true. Ya see it wasn't during the previous eight years. A Gerald Ford wouldn't have gotten us into Iraq. Gerald Ford got upset at a 65 billion dollar deficit. George Bush bequeathed Obama a deficit north of a trillion dollars. Obama wouldn't need to be an FDR if Gerald Ford was always president.

[Mulvaney]

The opportunity for a Roosevelt realignment was there but the Republicans said "no" so what's a president to do?