"Gerald Ford will always be president." That's a cynical piece of Washington wisdom that you can find a) discomfiting, or b) reassuring. But c), it is an enduring truth. The centrist center of gravity in this town is that strong.
Such centrist reality is distressing to the left today, just as it was distressing to the right in the era of Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove.
I am writing before the results of Election Day 2009 are known, but it's a cinch that the electoral results will be a check on progressive ambitions. As has been obvious all year, conservative/libertarian/tea-partying energy has been surging since Barack Obama's inauguration. The latest Gallup Poll, for example, finds the percentage of self-identified conservatives on the rise, while the percentage of self-identified liberals is declining.
A year ago, according to Gallup, conservatives outnumbered liberals by 15 points, 37 to 22. Today, conservatives have ticked up three points, and liberals have ticked down two points; 40 percent of Americans now call themselves conservative, just 20 percent liberal -- a 2:1 advantage for conservatives. Politicians are doing the math; center-right beats center-left.
Which brings up another Beltway lesson: Ideology and power generally go in opposite directions. Ideological movements arise in reaction to the perceived abuses and excesses of the incumbents, and then those movements recede when "their" side takes power. Of course, the most ardent wings, left and right, will never be happy with much that anyone in power does, no matter what his or her label. That's the price that those respective wings pay for being in the fringe ideological deciles of the population; by definition, they are always on the outside looking in.
The point here is that the political equivalent of the statistical concept of regression always kicks in after an election: Things are never as good as you hope, nor as bad as you fear. The middling middle triumphs: Hello, President Ford.
There have been exceptions, of course, to this muddle-through rule. Such instances are sufficiently rare in American history that they get their own special term: "realignment." And there have been only four of five realignments in American history. Franklin Roosevelt and his New Dealers led one one the 1930s and 40s, and Ronald Reagan and his Reagan Revolutionaries led another in the the 1980s -- although once again, the level of change the Reaganites achieved was deeply disappointing to "movement" conservatives.
A year ago, Obama might have thought that he was going to be another FDR -- an admiring media told him he could do it -- but it hasn't happened. Perhaps the situation might have been different if Obama had put more emphasis, sooner, on the primary issues of jobs and mortgages, thus cementing the loyalties of worse-off swing voters. But instead, Obama chose healthcare and global warming, and he pursued those secondary issues with no great competence.
So no Rooseveltian realignment for Obama, just Clintonian regression.
So, one year after the election, what do you think Candidate Obama would think of President Obama? Tweet your response (our Twitter hashtag is #OneYearLater), or post it in the comments section.
Follow James Pinkerton on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jamesppinkerton
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That being said, I urge people, if you have HBO, to watch Schematta: From Rags to Riches to Rags. You'll once again be screaming about NAFTA and outsourcin
Pay special attention to Wall Street connection and how it destroyed this industry in this country, as it has so many others. It's all about the bottom line. One designer in the program said people should pay attention because soon it will be white collar jobs that are being outsource. I laughed because, sadly, that has been going on for a few years, too.
Gerald Ford’s Administra
Download the 2009 version free at: http://www
Congress should fine-tune and pass the 2009 HITC program without delay!
Another path to millions of jobs is described in the article: 5 Steps to Revive the Auto Industry and the Economy - on the same website.
It outlines revolution
The technology is not in the textbooks and will be greeted with extreme skepticism and disbelief.
However, independen
That validation began the process of proving that new technology can allow a barrel of water to replace 200 barrels of oil!
It can change what is currently believed about energy and help to generate millions of jobs.
Thanks to Mr Pinkerton for his shining example.
issues, they ReThug's are in the minority now and yet they still seem to controll the congress.
Republican
no job security healthcare is not at the top of their list, how can I pay for health insurance if I don't have
an income, many people in his office worked for the Clintons also and they should have known, IT'S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID. Looks like the Dems are in trouble and this time they can't blame it
all on the ReThug's they control all branches of government
In my life I have learned it ain't over 'til its over.
Barack Obama's presidency is unpreceden
Just a short time ago, Bill Cosby warned President Obama to take it easy so as not to rile up white Americans, many of whom were struggling with heightened anxiety after a big change. People are acting like the so-called "beer summit" didn't even happen this summer.
Ultimately
The first year was a bit slow, but there are three more years to go. That should be sufficient to end the hostilitie
If you think Obama will be able to be even MORE bold after in 2011 and 2012 with his agenda, when he has to get it through a House and Senate with MORE Republican
If Obama continues to wait, wait, and wait some more, there will be nothing substantia