2011 Tony Awards Predictions

It's that time of year again.  The Tony Awards are nearly upon the Broadway community, although this time they moved a bit uptown, to the Beacon Theatre. While the ceremony won't be in the grand Radio City Music Hall, the statuettes hold the same value.  I've decided to weigh in with my picks for a majority of the categories.  

All in all, it has been a fantastic season on Broadway.  Strong plays, great performances, and a few celebrities thrown into the mix, although star power meant nothing when it came to the Tony nominators... whew!

I'll be live-blogging from the Tony Awards media room during the telecast, so make sure to check Broadway Direct for tidbits from backstage on Sunday night.

Musical: The Book of Mormon is the clear winner. The Scottsboro Boys could've been, had not Mormon landed big with voters.

Musical Revival: With such a limited season for musical revivals, Anything Goes is a sure winner, as the Harry Potter star power of How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying carried no weight with voters this season.

Actor in a Musical: Norbert Leo Butz busts his hump every night in Catch Me If You Can, although he has a close battle with fellow nominee Tony Sheldon from Priscilla Queen of the Desert. It could go either way on Tony night, but my vote is for Norbert.

Actress in a Musical: Sutton Foster is the darling of Broadway, and works her butt off. I still can't understand who first thought she would make a great Reno Sweeney. But, the gamble paid off.

Featured Actor in a Musical: Give this one to Rory O'Malley for his turn in The Book of Mormon. But great to see two actors from The Scottsboro Boys, Colman Domingo and Forrest McClendon. The sweat alone that poured off of these two boys each night during their brief Broadway run deserves some sort of accolade... or at least a Gatorade endorsement deal.

Featured Actress in a Musical: Laura Benanti took on the likes of Patti LuPone in that disastrous effort known as Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, and she stole the show... which isn't saying much. Give this girl a Tony, just for making the show halfway bearable.

Play: Between Jerusalem, Good People, The Motherfucker With the Hat and War Horse, it was a tremendous season for plays on Broadway. Strong work from all nominees, but Jerusalem left me with more chills than most.

Play Revival: The Normal Heart tore my heart out, and I'm sure it did the same for a lot of the Tony voters. While Merchant of Venice was another powerful play, it suffers from closing earlier in the season, meaning out of sight, out of mind. Give this one to RENT without music.

Actor in a Play: Mark Rylance, one of the greatest stage actors of our time. If Joe Mantello's last-minute bid for an award in The Normal Heart doesn't gain enough traction, Mark is taking home the statuette.

Actress in a Play: France McDormand is the leader in a strong pack, and makes you forget that Vanessa Redgrave even appeared on stage this season, which is no small feat. But kudos to newcomer Nina Arianda in Born Yesterday. She's one to watch in the next few seasons.

Featured Actor in a Play: A lot of momentum has built up around The Motherfucker With the Hat, so Yul Vazquez has a real shot at winning the Tony, but my vote goes to John Benjamin Hickey for his strong turn in The Normal Heart. On a side note, I had hoped Billy Crudup's turn in Arcadia would have garnered more attention, but that revival was a bit a snooze fest.

Featured Actress in a Play: Ellen Barkin in The Normal Heart. Enough said.

Director of a Musical: The Book of Mormon's co-directors, Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker have this award in the bag, if for no other reason than Trey's turn from South Park to Times Square was seamlessly executed.

Musical Score / Musical Book: The Book of Mormon is such a strong contender in these two categories, that there is no disputing its deserving a win for book and score.

Choreography: Kathleen Marshall put together a strong revival of Anything Goes, and keeping in mind that Sutton Foster showcases some amazing tap dancing at the Stephen Sondheim Theatre, Kathleen has a good shot at winning.

Orchestrations: Catch Me If You Can deserves some love here, as it was a sturdy contender this season as one of the true "old fashioned" musicals on Broadway. With The Book of Mormon sure to snag many of the awards on Tonys night, Catch Me should take this statuette home.

Director of a Play: The Normal Heart's co-directors Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe brought what was once a pound-on-your-chest warning call for the AIDS crisis to the modern stage, and kept things relevant, if not more important, to a 2011 crowd. These two stage veterans deserve the accolade.

For a complete list of Tony Award nominations, visit here and make sure to watch CBS on Sunday, June 12 for the live broadcast, taking place at New York City's Beacon Theatre.

 

Follow James Sims on Twitter: www.twitter.com/simsjames

Comments

[3fingerbrown]

04:02 PM on 06/09/2011

Some people already know they're going to win: the special award recipients. Two of them this year are close to my heart.

A special award is going to the Drama Book Shop, for many years a gathering place for NY's theater rats. Like thousands of others, I spent many a happy hour there browsing through plays and asking advice from the knowledgeable staff. A much-loved theatrical institution, and compliments to the committee for recognizing the special place the shop occupies in the hearts of theater professionals and avid amateurs.

Another special Tony will go to Bill Berloni, for decades B'way's top animal trainer. He's the guy who discovered and trained Sandy for the original production of "Annie." Since then, if you've ever seen a B'way show featuring a dog or cat, or even a rat, it was probably one of Bill's. Long before it was fashionable, he was getting all his dogs from shelters and rescue groups. Many a bedraggled stray on death row has become a pampered B'way star thanks to Bill. Along the way, he's been a committed advocate for the humane treatment of animals on TV and film sets. One of the Broadway community's genuine sweethearts and, again, compliments to the committee for reminding us that sometimes nice guys do finish first.

[standish]

12:33 PM on 06/09/2011

The Tony Awards long ago stopped being a relevant barometer of the state of theatre in this country. They only represent what is appearing on several blocks in New York City, not the vitality evident in regional and even community theatres across the country, which is why when the Pulitzer Prize for drama is awarded, it has often gone recently to Off-Broadway productions, or even shows that have yet to arrive in New York. This is compounded by the change in voting rules by the Tony Committee, which expunged critrics from its voter list and admitted producers of national tours, which is why you see commercially viable shows that will make money on the road winning instead of shows that should have won based purely on artistic merit. It's one of the reasons that Yasmina Raza, author of "Art" and "The God of Carnage," wins awards for Best Play (even though others are infinitely better): she uses a small cast, one set, minimal staging, so it's easy to tour. Finally, the Tony Awards show itself has become a circus, with what looks like half the audience rushing the stage when Best Play or Best Musical is announced, to stand behind the creators and jostle for camera space to wave at the folks back home: these aren't even prouducers in the traditional sense, but investors. The Tony Awards are the triumph of commerce over art and grow increasingly irrelevant every year.

[argh38]

12:12 PM on 06/09/2011

While I agree it should win, calling The Normal Heart "RENT without music" made me cringe. And I was a Rent fan.

[JaundicedEye]

12:03 PM on 06/09/2011

"Actor in a Play: Mark Rylance, one of the greatest stage actors of our time."

Yes. Yes, yes, YES!!!

I saw him this season in a play other than the one he's nominated for, and he absolutely blew me away. Give this man an award, now!

[griffinmill]

11:33 AM on 06/09/2011

I've been playing the ...Mormon cast recording over-and-over. It's simply astonishing.
It eclipses Spring Awakening, which was my last obsession. Must say, though, that if Sondheim were represented this year, I would likely be in his column.

[kenhamlett]

09:46 AM on 06/09/2011

"Arcadia" is one of the great plays of my (not short) life. To see it dismissed as a "snooze-fest" is ridiculous, but I guess Mr. Sims is entitled to his own opinion. He is also wrong about Best Play. "War Horse" will win easily. "The Normal Heart" deserves everything it will win, and it will win several awards. On to the Tonys ...

[XavierBrad]

08:48 AM on 06/09/2011

I can't wait to see "The Book of Mormon." I have orchestra seats in July! Based solely on the soundtrack of the song, "Sal Tlay Ka Siti", I can't imagine Nikki M. James not winning featured actress in a musical for "Book of Mormon." I hear everyone is blown away by that scene.

[Timothy Fraser]

09:31 AM on 06/09/2011

I haven't seen the "Book of Mormon" either, but I honestly cant wait! Every tony predictions article I read has picked them to win best musical, and everyone can't be wrong... right?

[Comicoffee]

12:18 AM on 06/09/2011

I hope the best actress in a musical award goes to Nikki M. James from Book of Mormon. She was amazing!

[cadavra]

06:07 PM on 06/08/2011

I still can't believe that James Earl Jones wasn't nominated for his towering performance in DRIVING MISS DAISY. And in what universe is Brian Bedford a "lead?" Still, this is a much better line-up than last year's fiasco--and yes, Bernanti certainly deserves to win.

[Nettapple]

09:22 PM on 06/07/2011

How could the Tony committee nominate such a racially offensive musical as "The Scottsboro Boys" for so many Tony Awards? Read my original review and different take on nominations for this show. These musical numbers do not deserve a national audience on the Tony Awards broadcast on Sunday, June 12th. Check out my response at www.dramadiscoveryandlearning.com/blog.

[sem413]

07:33 PM on 06/07/2011

I think Nina Arianda has more of a shot than you're giving her credit for.