New Study: New Hampshire's Changing Demographics

If tiny New Hampshire is a swing state, John McCain has more than a financial crisis and high anxiety to worry about there. With Sarah Palin expected there Wednesday and Barack Obama Thursday, there's also the overriding reality of demographic change. According to a comprehensive new state survey released Wednesday, a head-turning one-third of potential voters are new to the state and the majority self-identify as Democrats.

The University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute crunched 16 voter surveys and 8,300 interviews, combining them with eight years of Internal Revenue Service and Census migration data. It found that the potential electorate turned over by one-third in just eight years, as 321,000 people moved to New Hampshire from elsewhere and about 208,000 of those now remain. Meanwhile, 199,000 people of voting age exited, and 113,000 new voters reached the age of 18 as 83,000 residents died during the period. The end result is about 321,000 potential new voters out of 991,000.

The state has gone Democratic in three of the last four elections and is surrounded by decidedly blue states. John Kerry topped President Bush by a slim 1.4 percent four years ago. Yet, conventional wisdom has deemed New Hampshire, and its four electoral votes, a swing state.

That reality may be changing, given migration patterns leaving it as a state with one of the smallest percentages of its native-born citizenry still living there. The image of a tradition-bound Yankee state may be belied by the reality that just 43 percent of the people living in New Hamsphire were born there. Only five states have a smaller percentage.

Politically, "The influx of potential voters to New Hampshire has significant implications because they different in their party identification from long-time residents," according to the report co-authored by Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey Institute who arrived after a distinguished career at Chicago's Loyola University; Dante Scala, a political scientist at the university; and Andrew Smith, director of the university's Survey Center. Both young voters (53 percent) and the new migrants (52 percent), who tend to come from the Boston metro area and the South, are more inclined to self-identify as Democrats than established voters (43 percent). A total of 39 percent of established voters identify with the Republican Party, says the survey.

Changing voter registration reflects the demographic patterns in the state, with Democratic registrations rising by 30 percent the last decade, compared with a stable Republican registration. A once significant Republican margin had narrowed to only a small Republican lead, namely 271,000 to 265,000.

Most Democratic registration gains came in traditional Republican counties, with the most vivid changes in Grafton, Carroll and Belknap counties. Admittedly, the Democratic share's growth there partly reflect an inherently lower base to start with. But "such rapid gains also coincided with large migrations gains in Carroll and Belknap counties, suggesting that voter turnover may have contributed to these Democratic gains," wrote the authors. Their detailed analysis suggests that "diminished Republican dominance in these traditional Yankee Republican counties may well be due, at least in part, to the turnover in the pool of voters fueled by migration and generation changes."

In concluding that demographic change in the Granite State "has significant implications for the November election," the academics still can't answer an obvious ultimate question: who will actually come out on Nov. 4? For the moment, the McCain campaign probably should hope it's not a lot of an old state's distinctly new citizens.

Comments

[nhplanner]

New Hampshire is definitely turning blue, but it has more to do with Bush and the Republicans' miserable failures than with immigration. The largest gain in registration has been with independents, or "undeclareds," as we call them here. Independents tend to be pragmatic, and there has been nothing pragmatic or sensible with Bush's policies. Many immigrants (particularly from Massachusetts) are looking to escape the politics of their home state and have an idealized view of the "Live Free or Die New Hampshire." Some of the most conservative towns in the State are ones that border Massachusetts where transplants have settled. Opposition to taxes and regulations are very strong there and they have helped to stave off a decline in Republican registration. Many old-time New Hampshire Republicans are fiscally conservative and socially moderate; they feel betrayed by the Bush Administration. Immigration may have had a minor affect, but eight years with Bush is what turned New Hampshire blue.

[BillShea]

The people in the northern part of NH (a.k.a. mossbacks) refer to Southern NH as Northern Massachusetts. That about says it all.

[the-lexicon]

Well, I'm one of those "local boys".

One nice thing about being in NH, is that I stumble out my front door, walk next door, and vote using a paper ballot with a pencil.

My mother, father, myself, and my daughter have birth certificates signed by the same town clerk.

my take ? This isn't even going to be close, here in NH. Other commenters are correct, McCain used to be golden-boy, but he's got a pretty stubborn tarnish now.

lexicon

[PT6]

What a BEAUTIFUL state and what a Great Future as tourism returns after the inauguration!

New Hampshire has the image of being a tough-minded no nonsense place that prefers Facts over Political Tactics.

That is why they are leaning so much towards Obama. McCain has let them done by deploying Erratic Tactics that confuse and frustrate voters.

Obama has focused on the needs of the Middle-Class and that is why he continues to build a lead!

[DQKennard]

I'm in NH. For a long time the influx of new people didn't necessarily help the Democrats. A lot of new people coming in have been tech professionals moving from Massachusetts because of perceived lower taxes. The whole "live free or die" thing. While there has been good growth in high-tech industries in the state, many of these people have found they still need to commute down to MA, which cuts down on the advantage, as they end up paying generally higher property taxes *and* Mass income tax. Particularly through the 80s-90s, there was a phenomenon of young professionals identifying as libertarian-leaning independents -- and thus during that time period often voting Republican by default, for the "small government" platform.
Gradually though, many of these small government / small tax folks (a) realized the Republicans aren't for small government either, and (b) small government means programs they actually favor aren't funded. You know, socialist stuff like roads and schools. So, there have been some capture of this formerly anti-government demographic.
The general pattern is that the area around the capital and the Seacoast are generally liberal Democratic strongholds, the North is generally conservative Republican, the West is mostly conservative with a few liberal outposts around the college towns, and the South is mixed. (A twist when Mel Thompson was around was that a majority of the State workers -- educated union members -- were Democrats.)
The State is too small to gerrymander, so the "blueness" has been increasing.

[huffyISaHottie]

palin spoke here in new hampshire a few minutes ago....the woman cant put together a coherent sentence....she really does talk like yoda

[noir]

Another nail in the coffin!!!

[jobecky20]

I keep hearing stories about how there are more Democrats registered now than Republicans in this particular election. At first glance, this sounds like good news but does anyone have any data on where they are registered? If there are more Democrats registered than ever before in the solid blue states, it is a moot point. Who cares if there are millions of Democrats in NY and Calif? What the Democratic Party needs is massive Democratic registration in the battleground states and even a few red states because this election is decided on the electoral college, not the popular vote.

[NoMoFearNoMoHate]

the Obama campaign has been focused on voter registration drives in battleground states and even states that they don't expect to go democrat... yet.

[desertdweller]

New Hampshire has certainly changed a great deal since the early 70s when then arch-conservative Governor Meldrim Thomson ordered flags lowered to half-staff in response to Nixon's normalization of relations with Communist China.

[iLLogicaL]

My parents and grandparents live in NH...I'm working on them, but it ain't easy.

[Stephanie71]

You have to remember if this were any Republican but McCain this year Obama would have a much greater lead. NH fell in love with McCain and his Straight Talk Express 8 years ago and many haven't seen that this is a different man in 2008 (or as some might argue - he's been the same guy all along but just worse at disguising it).

[concernedmom]

Remind them that if they get their health insurance from their employer that they could lose that with McCains plan. Remind them that he will also tax those benefits. We are in NH my bil is a local doctor who has said that many people will lose healthcare under him. Remind them that the country is facing many problems with foreign policy and the economy and that as little as three weeks ago McCain was still saying that the economy was good. You can let them know that he is not a healthy man and if something were to happen with his health we would be stuck with a president who has no foreign policy experience or knowledge, she also got D's in economics in college. I am just hoping that Palins visit doesn't move the poles in McCains direction. I sure am glad that Obama will be here tomorrow to counter her visit.