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James Zogby

James Zogby

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Arabs Give Neocons a Reality Check

Posted: 04/16/11 09:44 AM ET

While much of what has come to be known as "the Arab Spring" remains a work in progress, there can be no doubt that a new dynamic has been unleashed across the region -- one that will have a profound impact as it continues to play out in the years to come.

What is most important to recognize is the fact that the developments that have unfolded since Tunisia have all been generated internally, putting to rest the patronizing mythology of the neo-conservatives and their ilk, who had long maintained that change could only come to the Arab World if induced by external (that is, Western) pressure. This was the view, for example, promulgated by Bernard Lewis, who once wrote that in the past change had only occurred in the "stagnant Middle East" when it had been "initiated by past European rulers". This theme was echoed more recently by Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute when she argued that if change were to come to the contemporary Arab World, "the West must hold open the door" and apply needed "outside pressure".

For some in the Bush administration, that was to be the role of the Iraq war. As it was envisioned (more as an apocalyptic fantasy, than a war), the U.S.-led invasion would not only topple the dictator ushering in a new democracy, it would also shock and shake up the region. Out of the ensuing chaos, they projected that a "new order" would be born -- a view enthusiastically supported by the New York Times' Tom Friedman who had long described the Arab World as an "ossified region" and who, therefore, congratulated the Bush administration for using the war to blast "a hole in the wall of Arab autocracy". And it was this same mind-set that caused then Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, and National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice to wax poetic about the "passing of old orders" in the aftermath of the war.

Neo-conservatives similarly projected that Israel's punishing blows against Gaza and Lebanon would play a transformative role, leading Rice to cavalierly dismiss the horrible devastation left in the wake of Israel's 2006 onslaught in Lebanon as "the birth pangs of a new Middle East".

These views, of course, were not only profoundly insensitive, they were dead wrong. Contrary to the Bush administration's ideologically inspired projections, the invasion and occupation of Iraq and Israel's war on its neighbors did not lead to democracy or even to progressive change. Instead, what was left in the wake of each of these conflicts was death and destruction, bitterness and suffering, and a deepened sectarian divide, coupled with a spreading of extremist fervor and intensified regional tension. Arab populations became roiled, Arab governments that had been making even modest moves toward change, pulled back and, overall, the region became more repressive and less free.

The movements that started in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and beyond, on the other hand, are far more deserving of the "birth pangs" designation. They have been inspirational -- creating a new pride amongst publics who had long felt deflated and powerless to make change. They have been contagious -- with tactics and slogans being copied or adapted to local settings, despite each country's unique characteristics. And they have been purely Arab and, it bears repeating, self-generated. There were no would be "Lawrences" or "Rumsfelds" at work in any of these uprisings fashioning themselves as the shapers of the Arab's destiny.

To be sure, circumstances differed from place to place -- Egypt is not Tunisia, nor can Yemen or Bahrain or Syria be seen as cast from the same mold. There were some common characteristics, but what inspired these revolts in each case were unique to each country.

Nevertheless, it is impossible to ignore the fact that what started in Tunis, and came to fruition in Egypt, has ignited a new sense of empowerment and possibility across the Arab World. And as young people have moved to non-violent protest and been met with violence, it has only hardened their resolve to demand change.

The story is far from over. Egypt and Tunisia remain unfinished, while the movements for change in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria have been frustrated by obstinacy and miscalculation. And Libya, for its part, has taken a detour -- with the role of NATO now fundamentally altering the course of this revolt, turning it into something quite different than "the Arab Spring". But even in this unsettled and uncertain state, there is a new spirit in evidence across the region. Even in governments where there is no demand for change, or where majorities are satisfied with their current circumstances, the dynamic of this region-wide revolt can be felt. Arabs have been inspired and imbued with a new sense of pride, governments will listen more carefully to citizen needs, and change will occur.

The path forward will have its obstacles and there will be setbacks, but the journey will continue. And when the history of this seminal period is written what will be noted is that the movements that launched it all and carried it through were started by Arabs, who took steps by themselves to create their own futures.

Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of  Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community.

 

Follow James Zogby on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AAIUSA

While much of what has come to be known as "the Arab Spring" remains a work in progress, there can be no doubt that a new dynamic has been unleashed across the region -- one that will have a profound ...
While much of what has come to be known as "the Arab Spring" remains a work in progress, there can be no doubt that a new dynamic has been unleashed across the region -- one that will have a profound ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Erewhon7
Join atheists, our non-prophet organization
01:23 PM on 04/19/2011
Not sure I understand the premise of this opinion. Given the fact that the Western conservatives are more liberal than most of Arab reformers.
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tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
12:18 PM on 04/19/2011
don't fret in no time at all neocons will be claiming any credit for success,while making certain all blame goes elsewhere.
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Trollstein
Once you go Schwartz, you never go back baby
02:50 PM on 04/18/2011
Prior to the 1920s, the Arab political landscape was a patchwork of tribal affinities, all under the absolute rule of the sultans in Istanbul. The average Arab was about tied for the designation of lowest paid worker on earth, with Chinese so called 'cooleys". With the increasing strategic value of oil, the bulk of the Arab population of the Mid East went from one inferior position to the next. The (prevalent) world rulers well knew that the only way to maintain control of the oil was to concentrate the power and wealth in the hands of a very few. Thus, even in nations with no oil, we actively supported despots and tyrants--just to insure that everything remained organized and under total control. This was not the work of "neo-cons" as such concepts did not yet exist. People like J.D. Rocafeller (Standard Oil) were primary players, as were a few of the earlier generations of Bush's.
I hope the Arab people come fully to their senses and begin to recognize who and what their TRUE oppressors are. After all this time and all this political and religious manipulation, the outlook is not encouraging.
12:57 PM on 04/18/2011
Now that Arabs have given Neocons a Reality Check, they might give themselves a much needed reality check. After all, life for Arabs is not determined by U.S. neocons or any other cons, or pros. Life for Arabs depends on creating a reality for themselves they can live with, and prosper with. They need jobs, economic, political and social reform, even in a number of cases psychological reform. Just as handouts and transfer payments are not a viable basis for running a household in the long run and move upwards, so is depending on *donations*, aid, food rations, the destruction of others and their nations, the demise of anyone's religion and culture, and fingerpointing, not a viable basis for building a nation. Sure, I find the neocons also irritating, a number of times, but the natives of the Arab countries make and brake their own countries. The neocons are here at home, in the U.S. looking on in amazement as Arabs and Persians are not able to get any act together. Namecalling, shaking a finger into another's face, destroying his property and his life, does not uild your own house, your own fortune and your own nation.
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RDWidner
A Libertarian by nature. A free man by act of God.
08:33 AM on 04/18/2011
How do you know that Iraq isn't what is driving the so called change?
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07:43 AM on 04/18/2011
To understand the Neocons, you have to understand their Rootin Tootin cowboy mentality.

The American Colonials didn't care if indigenous tribes were Cherokee, Sioux, Navaho, Choctaw etc., the were just "Injuns"

There was no respect for ancient tribal land rights, religious beliefs, or anything that really
mattered to them Injuns. They were just in the way of our lust for exploitation.

The Middle East and Africa were treated the same way by the European Colonials.

Where alliances needed to be formed, they made sure the leaders were "friendlies" to their
exploitation.

The NeoCon mindset classifies ALL Muslims the same as the colonials classified those pesky
Native Americans.

The difference is that now those pesky native tribes in the Middles East, can't be bought off with beads and trinkets. Each tribe is fully aware of the potential wealth and security beneath their
rightful lands.
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08:54 AM on 04/18/2011
Human history is full of such examples. For better and worse, we are products of our non-human ancestors and the self aware brain does not eradicate those inherited behaviors entirely. Is it ugly and brutal? Almost always. There was brutality, slavery, and territories conquered in North America before Europeans arrived. Aggression and brutality are part of our human make-up. We can only hope to control some of it with our ability to reason. We've got a long way to go and we will always be on the path.
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tallen
panem et circenses
04:29 PM on 04/17/2011
"Democracy"?

Egypt: Brotherhood leaders announce they'll implement Sharia
Sun, 17/04/2011

Mahmoud Ezzat, the Muslim Brotherhood's deputy Supreme Guide, said in a forum held in the Cairo district of Imbaba on Thursday that the group wants to establish an Islamic state after it achieves widespread popularity through its Freedom and Justice Party.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/403687
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Shingo
04:55 AM on 04/18/2011
>> Egypt: Brotherhoo­d leaders announce they'll implement Sharia

If that is the platform they are running on and the Egyptian people elect them, then yes, that's still democracy.
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09:06 AM on 04/18/2011
In all likelyhood that democracy will last a few election cycles until Sharia is fully interegrated into the political/social system. They may indeed condemn themselves to non- secular Muslim rule. If nothing else it will be interesting, maybe alarming, to see how this movement evolves.
03:54 PM on 04/17/2011
Not sure he's got this right. I've posted this link elsewhere but I think it will add to the debate. Here's a European ne-con associated with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies with a different take, on Libya in particular: http://www.thecommentator.com/article/73/the_libya_mission_is_turning_into_an_embarrassing_mess
02:47 PM on 04/17/2011
I am not a neocon but the situation in Libya proves that in some Arab states, the Arab society is too weak to gain their democracy without outside help. The Libyan resistance wouldn't agree with what zogby is saying.
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wom122
Primum non nocere
10:35 PM on 04/17/2011
What makes anyone think that the Arab society would become democratic with outside help? Leaving alone the larger question if democracy is a panacea for everyone everywhere.
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ilm101
12:52 AM on 04/18/2011
Now that the west has intervene we will never knows how that would have played out, besides no revolution happened without great sacrifice, included human lives.
ProudNeoCon
helping people does not require government
12:07 PM on 04/17/2011
And you think that images of millions of Iraqis voting did not effect public in other Arab countries? It could be argued that Bush was right... Somehow Arab dictators were unquestionable for over half of century, yet now they all falling
12:41 PM on 04/17/2011
The moment the US leaves the tribal killings and the Shiite/Sunni war will erupt! This is all smoke and mirrors..with America as the new strongman/dictator! Why are you so blind that you don't see this? Bush and teh neoconartists lied us into war..now you're changing the reason! BS! Fail! Won't work!
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wom122
Primum non nocere
10:38 PM on 04/17/2011
Iraqis were "voting" in their millions before we invaded. There has never been any shortage of bogus elections and referendums in Arab lands.
09:53 AM on 04/17/2011
The previous "Arab Spring", the one riding the wave of Arab nationalism with Nasser at the helm didn't work out that well. When you see photos of Nasser walking with his young protege' Qaddafy, smiling after the overthrow of King Idris you really get the feeling that not much ever changes in that benighted region except for the name of the strong man at the top of the food chain.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
09:05 AM on 04/17/2011
James, though there is a lot of truth in what you say in your article, there is one basic flaw in it, and that is the idea that neo-cons care when reality confilicts with what they believe (and espouse for others).
 
If they can ignore a massive oil-spill off their own shores, and the economic meltdown to continue to scream that government regulation is bad and must be eliminated, is there any chance that they will acknowledge the role the racist attitude towards Arabs in particular (and Muslims in general) by Americans and Europeans has played in freezing out progress in the ME for the past century?
 
How likely is it that the people who have held that the best way for Americans in general to become better off is to let the wealthiest keep getting more and more of the wealth Americans in general create, and run up massive debts for Americans in general so that that can happen, even in the face of decades of evidence that all that does is make the rich richer, while the general American is lucky to they can maintain the position their parents held will be able to admit they are backing the wrong side in the ME?
 
Reality may be knocking on the neo-cons doors saying 'you were and are wrong', but the important neocons (those at the top, and those at the bottom) are too interested in either painting a picture over their followers windows, or looking at that picture and believing it to be reality, to listen.
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12:48 PM on 04/17/2011
I have to agree here. The Weekly Standard crowd is not going to admit to solipsism at this point. They don't have to care about money, only about being perceived as right. In other words, they are G-d. Nobody has been able to burst their delusional reality creating bubbles, so far.
08:28 AM on 04/17/2011
The US spent trillions and got nothing.
12:43 PM on 04/17/2011
they got a "jobs program"!Cost trillions..but they got it!
SapientiaAudit
Tempus Dicit, Sapientia Audit.
06:47 AM on 04/17/2011
First I want to say that I think that this is a very well written and thought out blog post by Mr. Zogby.

However, I think he misunderstands or at least misses the bigger picture when it comes to the fundamental foundations of the popular protests sweeping the Arab world and beyond recently.

If the point that this is an internally generated protest movement is lost on some of the myopic, ethnocentirc members of our society so be it. For the most part people will believe whatever the want to believe, whether it bears any relation to the truth or not is for most people immaterial.

So what's the real connection that runs through all these protest movements that Zogby hints at but can't quite seem to grasp? It's so obvious and simple and so in front of his face that he can't even see it even as he's using it to make his blog post. It's communications technology and the rise of the universal data culture.

Anything we want to know is at our beck and call, we can talk to hundreds, thousands, and even millions of people all at once, and perhaps most importantly information now flows freely; even in relatively repressive regimes the new communications technology is used.

What this means, in the larger sense, is that we are finally gaining a racial memory and 'conversation or 'consciousness' . This combination is causing us to become sentient as a species, and this is just the beginning.
anthonyve
An exmilitary, excorporate Aussie
07:56 AM on 04/17/2011
I agree that your point about technology is a critical one, although I think that there are two separate points to be taken away.
The first is the one that you make about communications technology, which I see as playing a facilitation role, i.e. it made what has happened possible.
The second point is that the desire for freedom was always there, hidden in the hearts of ordinary people; basically people very much like us in the west. It was waiting for the opportunity that the technology made possible.
The desire for freedom, or as a 1960s professor named Abraham Mazlow called it 'the opportunty for self actualization' lies in the heart of every human. It's just another one of the vast number of attributes that we all share whatever culture we belong to or whatever continent we live on.
And what we have in common vastly outweighs what we do not.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
09:11 AM on 04/17/2011
Of course, previous waves of revolutions against 'the powers that be' have been credited to other forms of advancement in communication (tv, film, radio, 'magic candle', mass print publication, the printing press etc)
 
Is it really the availability of a new way to communicate, or that, when conditions are ripe, people will find some way to reach out and communicate with those around them?
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Freenation
01:57 AM on 04/17/2011
the biggest joke is when neocons like Kristol, Krauthhammer etc use 'we' in the context of USA...
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09:27 AM on 04/17/2011
The real 'joke' is your labelling of Krauthammer as a 'neocon.' It's obvious that based on your complete lack of knowledge regarding Krauthammer and the differences between his published writings and those of the actual Neocons like Wolfowitz and Perle, your understanding of the Big Picture is extremely limited.
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behavingbadly
reality doesn't care what you believe
01:27 PM on 04/17/2011
The real joke is substituting labels for thinking.
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Freenation
05:43 PM on 04/17/2011
really? did you get autograph from krauthhammer when he was boarding 'stop war with iraq bus' or the one where he was yelling 'make love with iran not war'....
FreeAmerican7
It's hard to soar like an Eagle around Turkeys!
11:40 AM on 04/17/2011
"the biggest joke is when neocons like Kristol, Krauthhamm­er etc use 'we' in the context of USA..."

Of course they use "WE" as they are in ABSOLUTE CONTROL.....
Fear the ONES in the Pipeline .... the ONES being groomed in the
Judeo-Christian Madrasah
which make the
Taliban Madrasah moderate by comparison!
12:50 PM on 04/17/2011
Please..give your hatred of Judaism and Christianity a rest!