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Arabs Should Act Now -- Not Wait for Obama
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Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Hamas, Israel, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Obama Foreign Policy, Obama Israel, Obama Middle East, Palestine,
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Because expectations across the Middle East are so high and the need for change is so great, during the next two months, all eyes will be focused on the early decisions made by President-elect Barack Obama. But precisely because the need is so great, I believe that the region's leadership should be more than spectators during this critical transition period. This is especially true with regard to efforts to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace.
The damage done by eight years of the Bush administrations' neglect and recklessness is all too clear. The Palestinian house is in disarray, with leaderships in the West Bank and Gaza both physically and ideologically divided. Gaza, under the control of Hamas, is being strangled by an oppressive embargo, with an on-again, off-again truce punctuated by periods of rocket attacks and Israeli assaults. The West Bank, itself, is being slowly strangled by never-ending settlement growth, hundreds of intrusive and humiliating checkpoints, and an oppressive wall/barrier snaking in and out of Palestinian lands.
The paths chosen by the two leaderships, though contradictory, are both flawed. Hamas has made a religion of "resistance" which has won nothing but death and hardship for Palestinians, and insecurity in Israel and reinforcement for hard-line Israeli policies. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority's commitment to negotiations, while commendable, has become pointless, since negotiating without leverage (and without control over the constituency for which they are negotiating) becomes an empty exercise.
On more than one occasion, Barack Obama has stated that he would make Israeli-Palestinian peace a priority, and that he would take a different course than that of his predecessor. But, if we are to be honest with ourselves, we must acknowledge that when Obama takes the oath of office on January 20th, he is likely to find a rather unappetizing situation laid out before him in the Middle East.
If nothing changes in the next two months, the Palestinian house will still be divided, and the Israelis will still have no government and no clear mandate (elections, there, will occur on February 10th, and all signs point to either a hard-line Netanyahu victory or the cobbling together of a weak centrist-led coalition).
The question, therefore, before the new administration will be: can anything be done, and, if so, how to start? Because I believe that steps can be taken, at least on the Arab side, to put their house in order before January 20th, the region's leadership ought to use the next two months' time wisely.
The first priority must be to achieve Palestinian reconciliation, and the establishment of an effective and unified Palestinian government that can command both popular support and the respect of the international community. This will require more than a redux of the Mecca Accords. The current draft proposal being circulated in Cairo provides a useful framework, with its focus on rebuilding a consensus government and an Arab-trained and supported internal security force. Compliance by both Palestinian leaderships is, of course, essential, but has thus far been elusive. Instead of the current rather hollow threats of sanctions or "naming names," the Arab leadership ought to create incentives for acceptance.
Clearly what the West Bank and Gaza desperately need are job creation, infrastructure and capacity-building projects, as well as immediate relief. The Arabs do participate in international efforts to subsidize the Palestinian Authority budget, but that merely maintains the unacceptable status quo. To move the process forward, I would propose the creation of a rather massive multi-billion dollar "Peace and Reconciliation Incentive Fund" that would provide immediate relief and job-creating investment once the parties have agreed to a Cairo-like consensus. The bottom line purpose of the fund is to support the Palestinian people, and to create the incentive and pressure for their divided leaderships to agree on a new government, which, with Arab backing, is ready and able to make peace.
In addition, the Arab League, instead of merely reaffirming their 2002 and 2007 peace plan, would do well to enlarge upon it by putting, as it were, "meat on the bones." They could, for example, spell out in greater detail the types of investment and/or trade incentives that would accompany final peace and/or normalization. And they could even create a staged sequencing (for example, with the signing of an Israeli-Palestinian framework, stage one will occur; with removal settlements and checkpoints in compliance with agreement, stage two will occur, etc.). The Arab plan has attracted interest not only with the incoming U.S. administration, but among many in Israel, as well. Spelling out, therefore, the benefits and vision that accompany final peace would be of enormous benefit.
In addition to the January 20th swearing in of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States, there are two other deadlines fast approaching. A Palestinian agreement must be reached by January ninth, the formal date of the end President Abbas' term, or the already fragile internal Palestinian situation may become more conflicted. Equally important is the February 10th election in Israel. Rapid movement toward achieving Palestinian consensus and an enlarged and enhanced version of the Arab peace initiative would both remove the dangers presented by the first date and could have a positive impact on the latter.
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I'm always amused by the fact that the combined GDP of the Arab League nations is roughly that of Holland, Belgium and mighty Luxembourg. Not much to show for the work of 330 million people...t
Regarding Zogby's "oppressive wall/barrier", the fact is that suicide bombers inside Israel have dropped dramatically since the wall was built. The wall works as it was intended, saving countless innocent lives!
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems almost impossible to resolve. The Palestinians feel that they have been marginalized as second class citizens and forced to live on the uninhabitable side of Palestine (the ghetto) and the Israelis claim that the Palestinians are violent, racist and etc, etc. The Palestinians seem unwilling to stop the bombings and the Israelis seem unable to forge equality. OMG what a mess. Religious zealotry on both sides fuels this crisis. What's going to stop that?
one day...peac
http://www
our gran gran gran children will live the same situation that we are living now: no peace between both sides. Because of its religious underlying, I am afraid actually that the war between these two parties will bring the end of the world.
MR Zogby,I have been following the Middle East for 50 years.I wish I could have hope but I do not.The Israerli government is so constituted I do not believe they can make a comprehensive peace.Ther
love the idea and the realism but the odd thing is that it's not just abt money...US interests in Israel's sanctity have deeply religious roots.
By wealth and by stealth is how Israel should work with America, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to resettle the Palestinians throughout Jordan and other Arab counties with favorable ties to America. Give them land (free if necessary) so they can start their lives anew in Jordan And Saudi Arabia. Do it secretly behind the backs of the militants who want them to remain in Palestine to continue their futile battle for generations to come. We are not helping the Jews by encouraging them to be hard-hearted and malicious towards the Palestinians. Remember Jonah and how angry he became with God when God would not destroy his enemies. This is not God's plan for Israel, turning them into warriors the way they were in the Old Testament. This is not how they were meant to be.
Many more "Palestinians" live outside the "occupied territories" than live in them and they've either refused or been refused citizenship in other countries. Whole generations have been indoctrinated in victim-hood are thus focused on the Jews as the sole reason for misery.
In all actuality (thanks to the British) these people were originally part of Transjordan and should have been recognized as such (Jordan's Queen Rania is Palestinian). The politicians of the Arab lands around Israel early on saw the advantage in using Israel as a scapegoat for their own corruption and used the suffering of the "refugees" - many who suffered while living in Arab countries as proof that the Jews were responsible for all Arab misery.
Only Jordan has made some efforts but the attempts by Arafat early on to overthrow their government (he once led a coup against King Hussien where they actually fired on each other!) have made long for distrust. The Palestinians have long been troublemakers in the lands where the resettled.
They also seem to breed in numbers far greater than local conditions and overwhelm the local natives. This vast population growth (from less than 100,000 in 1948 to near 6,000,000 now) destabilizes the whole area and giving in to their demand to return to "their land" in Israel would result in a hostile vast majority that would quickly obliterate the Jews. Jewish racism doesn't help things, either, and their are radical Jews who are just as whacked as the Hamas fanatics.
Until the Palestinians agree that Israel has a right to exist, no peace can be possible. Without this precondition of acceptance, how do you negotiate with people who want to blow you off the face of the map?
That's exactly right. The Palestinians could have had their own country living in peace with Israel in 1948. They turned it down. Gaza and the West Bank were *occupied* by Egypt and Jordan for nearly twenty years. The could have created the Palestinian state the Arabs claim they desire. They did not do so. They have had numerous opportunities to make peace with Israel for the last forty years. They have repeatedly declined.
If the Palestinians could produce a Gandhi or a Mandela who really and truly wanted peace with Israel and self-determination for his own people, it would be done. Israelis are *eager* for such a resolution. However even the "moderates" of the Abbas's faction celebrate terrorism and cannot concede that a Jewish state on a tiny sliver of the Middle East has much right to exist as the Arab countries that cover virtually the entire region.
I hope that a President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton can convince the Arabs that it is in *their* interest to finally make peace with Israel. A Middle East "Common Market" could be an economic powerhouse in the world. Unfortunately most of the countires prefer to use Israel as a scapegoat so that their populations will not rise up against their own oppressive dictatorships.
Peace is still elusive but it is not the fault of Israel.
There will never be peace with two people claiming ownership of the same property. Either it belongs to one or the other, but not both. There will be no miracles of peace between these two people when each knows that they are right.
Excuse my ignorance, but isn't the population of Jordan already 60%. If so doesn't that mean that the Palestinians already have a country? Wouldn't it be best if all the neighboring Arab countries simply took these people in? There has not been a race on earth that has not been displaced at one time or another, I know it's not fair, but it is life, so this ordeal isn't special to the people of Palestine. Americans have to stop draining our resources to prop up Israel , we need to focus on the problems at home. The Palestinians have to accept the fact that Israel won and get on with their lives, in other Arab countries if need be. But Israel must realize that it is in their best interest to help solve this problem because the Western world is slowing turning away from her plight. Arabs are moving into Europe and ar slowing changing the mindset of that continent. What happens when America is no longer the super-power, big brother able to protect Israel from the world. Don't say that you will cross that bridge when you get to it because by then there won't be a bridge there for you to choose another course.
The Arabs consist of many countries. It is a linguistic designation not a racial one. I do so hope that Obama will effect a lasting peace that will benefit the Palestinian people. This is at the crux of the matter in the Arab world. I have studied Barack Obama and his books since he made the Kerry speech in 2004. Nothing makes me think he will fail to address those issues. I believe in the man with his multi-cultural background and his general take on life. He had to get elected and so he had to speak to the Israelis in a way that wouldn't enrage them. For those who already doubt him, I can only say, please trust him until you see that he takes a different path. This is a president such as we have never had before. I believe he can change the world for the better - for all people. Give him a chance.
The peoples of the Middle East are splintered literally into dust and their combined effect is the same.
The peoples of the Middle East could easily solve their problems within weeks by simply combining into large focused masses that could literally swarm peacefully into their objectives.
Go back and read about India and Gandhi.
It's not going to happen by hand wringing, squabbling, or negotiating. It's only going to happen when a charismatic leader inspires the people to combine.
"Go back and read about India and Gandhi."
Gahdhi's success was determined by his enemies' virtues as much as his own. If the colonial power ruling india had been, say, germany rather than the UK, the result of Gandhi's passive resistance campaign in the 30s and 40s would have been far different.
Arabs cannot operate in unison because they represent neither a single nation nor state nor political party nor goverment. You have Egyptians that range from Mubarek to the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia and Jordan stand to lose more than they could possibly gain with the growth of the influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
You have remnants of the Osmans and remnants of the Safavid. You have Baathists and Shi'a and Kurds in Iraq. This is a political struggle. The issue is nothing less than the political reconfiguration of the entire region. Let's all remember to send a "Thank you" note to the British for their performance after WW1. Recognizing Kurdish political rights remains an issue in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Political Islamism is an aggressive, sectarian and militaristic social force.The Palestinan issue has devolved from a national issue to a religious war. Today it was reported Hezbollah is holding military maneuvers south of the Litani River in Lebanon. Peace is not even in sight. All sides are prepared to fight to the end for terrtorial expansion. The Palestinian issue becomes merely a pretext for continued wars until there is a demonstrated determination to recognize Israel.
The fist step is for the states of South West Asia accept the legitimacy of ALL states in the region. The reconfiguration of the region can take place peacefully. But each state needs to be willing to negotiate new territorial boundaries while recognizing the right of others to exist.
"The Palestinan issue has devolved from a national issue to a religious war. "
Actually its merely reverted to a variation of what it originally was which was a religious strugglefueled by the rhetoric of the Grand Mufti.
Arafat changed all of that in the 1960's understanding that the West would never sympathize with an Islamic struggle and so he dubbed all the Arabs living in Mandated Palestine "Palestinians" while those Jews who had up until then been referred to as the "Palestinians" become Israelis since the State by then had been declared.
I only have met one Palestinian,about a year ago here in the U.S. A waitress in a restaurant. She told me that her father was murdered, right here in the U.S. and she was scared out of her wits.She grew up here,as an American kid, but suddenly the whole family had to change its ways. A friend was helping her out.That friend was jewish.*Pa
How can there be peace when the Palestinians cant even find peace among themselves? The Israelies are moving on with their lives, they are living in freedom and enjoying the fruits of the incredible modernization of a once barren and desolate land. They are going to schools, raising families and pursuing their dreams. Does anyone honestly believe the Gaza embargo would still be going on if rockets werent landing near preschools or that there would be a wall around the West Bank if terrorist Palestinians didn't strap bombs to their chests and walk effortlessly into Israel with the intent to kill? They need to unite as a people and demonstrate themselves commited to peace and not destruction. How can there ever be a Palestinian country when half of it won't even take the most basic of actions of acknowledging the other sides existence and right to live. These actions only feed the Israeli right wing and justify its positions, Which hold everybody back. No amount of aid can equal the amount of wealth the Palestinans stand to acquire once they have a safe state of their own. There needs to be, a people wide understanding that THEY are the key holders to their own state, their own freedom and their own futures. When the palestinians want freedom for their people more then they want the destruction of Israel, only then can their truly be peace.
well said and very true
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