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James Zogby

James Zogby

Posted: November 2, 2008 03:36 PM

Careful, Mudslingers: This Mud Votes


In a election season that has known many shameful moments, the McCain campaign's slanderous effort to use Rashid Khalidi to smear Barack Obama, was one of the more shameful.

McCain and Palin grossly mischaracterized the person and work of Khalidi. He was never, as they claimed, a PLO spokesperson, nor is he a "radical" or an "extremist".

None of this mattered to the Republicans. Since the entire effort was designed to callously scare up votes from Florida's large Jewish senior citizen population, the fact that Khalidi was a Palestinian American was enough. The entire affair was as malicious as it was slanderous. It was hurtful to Khalidi and Arab Americans (who have been repeatedly used, this year, as mud to sully opponents). It was also deeply insulting to American Jews. And it will have consequences, but not those anticipated by the McCain campaign. Since the effort was so crude, and easily debunked, there will be no appreciable increase in American Jewish support.

At the same time, Arab American voters, already abandoning the GOP in droves, will find more reason to do so. Which brings me to present the following piece written by Nadine Wahab of the Arab American Institute. In it, she presents the results of a new poll on Arab American voter preferences in 2008. Since the poll was done before the "no Ma'am, (he's not an Arab) he's a decent family man" episode and l'affaire Khalidi, one might reasonably assume the 68 percent Obama, 27 percent McCain final projected by the poll, may be even worse for the GOP - interesting that despite all of the muck thrown about this year, and all of the slights and blunders on all sides, Barack Obama will likely win near identical huge majorities of both Arab American and American Jewish voters.

Careful, Mudslingers: This Mud VOTES. By Nadine Wahab The Arab American Institute

A recent poll revealed a historic shift of Arab Americans support towards the Democratic ticket. With the recent tendency of the campaigns to use 'Arab' as a wedge issue, and Arab Americans as weapons aimed at their opponents, this community has been galvanized.

With only days to go to in an election where pundits are talking about record turnout, if the numbers hold, Arab Americans may be part of a coalition that pushes several battleground states blue.

According to the Arab American Institute / Zogby International nationwide poll of 504 likely Arab American voters, conducted between October 10th and October 15th and released last week, 54 percent identified themselves a Democrat, and 64 percent favor Sen. Barack Obama in a two way race.

Support for Sen. Obama only drops by two percent when third-party candidates are added. This is a change from an earlier poll conducted in September, when a nine point drop showed that support for the Senator was soft . This may be an indication of the recent success of the Obama campaign to connect with the Arab American community on domestic issues. 42 percent of those who support Sen. Obama did so because of his domestic policies, only 15 percent are voting against McCain and 16 percent are party loyalist.

The AAI poll showed that while 27 percent of Arab Americans identify as Republican, only 23 percent favored Sen. John McCain. Support for Sen. McCain has dropped by 12 percent from the September poll. Interestingly, while Sen. Obama leads in all sub-groups except Arab American Republicans, Sen. McCain only receives 62 percent of that vote. When leaners are added the AAI projects a final 68/27 Obama win among Arab American voters.

With almost two-thirds of Arab Americans negatively impacted by the recent economic crisis, it is no surprise that 79 percent named "Jobs and/or the Economy" as on of the most important issues in this election. 69 percent felt that Sen. Obama handled the issue better then his opponent, compared to 23 percent for Sen. McCain. This may explain the shift in Arab American support toward the Democratic ticket, but it is important to note that Sen. Obama fared better than his opponent across the board. The closest margin, McCain's strong suit and Obama weakest showing, "Terrorism and National Security", still showed a 20 percentage point spread, with Obama receiving 56 to 36 percent. This is a strong showing for Sen. Obama.

The Arab American population is estimated at over 3 million Nationwide. Given thier higher rate of turn out on election day, Arab American account for as much as five percent of the voters in Michigan are Arab American, two percent in Virginia and Ohio, and about one percent in Florida and Pennsylvania. As the parties continue to fight over the electorate in these battle ground states, Arab American voters can help change the electoral map.

In a election season that has known many shameful moments, the McCain campaign's slanderous effort to use Rashid Khalidi to smear Barack Obama, was one of the more shameful. McCain and Palin grossly...
In a election season that has known many shameful moments, the McCain campaign's slanderous effort to use Rashid Khalidi to smear Barack Obama, was one of the more shameful. McCain and Palin grossly...
 
 
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08:31 PM on 11/02/2008
Mr. Zogby: As you of course know many Arab-American are not Muslim (e.g., many Christians from Lebanon & Palestine; also some Coptic from Egypt, etc.), and many Muslim-Americans are not Arab (from Pakistan, India, Iran, Indonesia, Africa, etc. as well as African-America and anglo converts, etc.).

Is there any polling that break this out... all-Muslim-Americans, Muslim-Arab-Americans, Christian-Arab-Americans, non-Arab-Muslim-Americans, etc.?

Sincerely,
Steve

P.S.: Do love that "only in America" bit about probably over 70% Jews & Arabs/Muslims will vote Democratic this year. Now if only we could get the White Protestants and White Catholics; lol.
07:48 PM on 11/02/2008
I wonder why the GOP has failed so spectacularly in Michigan?

"According to the 2000 U.S. Census, the city with the largest percentage of Arab Americans is Dearborn, Michigan (southwestern suburb of Detroit) at nearly 30%".

Hmmmmmmm. Not the total reason, but certainly one of many now open to research investigation.
05:36 PM on 11/02/2008
Yeah, I have not at all understood most of the McCain campaign. Shouldn't they be prosecuted for besmirching the good name of Rashid Khalidi ? Don't libel and slander apply to many of the things they have said about Obama as well?

I understand why they are doing it. Repugnant as it may be, it is their last desperate gasp. But why are they not being called on it? Legally, morally, and politically, this has been a horrible campaign.
08:44 AM on 11/03/2008
As H.L. Mencken observed, "Under democracy, one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right